state of play: 09/21/2018
-- 21 YEARS AGO, AWS WON THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.
-- LEGIA WARSAW AND 300POLITYKA ARE JOINTLY ORGANIZING THE FIRST OFFICIAL DEBATE OF CANDIDATES IN WARSAW - ON THE FUTURE OF THE CAPITAL'S SPORTS: https://300polityka.pl/news/2018/09/21/legia-warszawa-i-300polityka-wspolnie-organizuja-debate-kandydatow-na-prezydenta-warszawy/
-- JACEK GĄDEK FROM GAZETA.PL ON TWITTER: “If I see one more article about PAD standing in the Oval Office, I'll lose it. The issue of a permanent US base in Poland has entered the US media agenda - that's what counts. Not some photo. And "Fort Trump" is just a soundbite. It smacks of simplicity, but it effectively attracted attention.” https://twitter.com/JacekGadek/status/1043067389124993024
-- PiS 34%, Civic Coalition 22%, Biedroń 8% - KANTAR MILLWARD BROWN POLL FOR WYSOKIE OBCASY: “What support do political parties have among all Poles who declare their intention to vote? PiS receives 34%, and the Civic Coalition – only 22%. Robert Biedroń's recently announced initiative can count on 8% of the votes. Kukiz’15 and SLD are not far behind (7% each). PSL does not cross the threshold (4%), while Wolność (Freedom) enters the Sejm with 5%. The Together party has only 1% support.”
-- THERE WILL BE NO MORE PARLIAMENTS WITHOUT LEFT-WING REPRESENTATIVES - writes Krzysztof Pacewicz: “Instead of a conflict between two forces: the right-wing PiS and the centrist anti-PiS represented by the Civic Coalition, we would have three main blocs in Polish politics: the right-wing (PiS), the liberal (Civic Coalition), and the left-wing (Biedroń + SLD), as well as protest parties (Kukiz’15 and Wolność). The combined support for Biedroń and SLD in our poll is 15%, roughly the same as in earlier IBRIS and IPSOS polls. It is therefore difficult to imagine another Sejm in 2019 without left-wing representatives. If SLD and Biedroń were to run together in the elections, which they do not rule out, this coalition could count on as many as 85-90 MPs. Grzegorz Schetyna must slowly start to accept that if his dream scenario of ousting PiS from power comes true, he will have to share it with the left.”
-- THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE TOPPLED BY WOMEN - writes Pacewicz: LEFT-LIBERAL WOMEN: “Among women, PiS (28%) ties with the Civic Coalition (27%), and Biedroń's party (8%), SLD (7%), and Kukiz'15 (6%) would also cross the threshold - according to a Kantar Millward Brown poll commissioned by Wysokie Obcasy. The differences between the preferences of Polish women and men are enormous. A parliament elected by men would be incomparably more right-wing. PiS would receive as much as 40% of men's votes, and the Civic Coalition only 17%. Kukiz would have 8%, and Biedroń and SLD 7% each, but Janusz Korwin-Mikke's Wolność party would also enter parliament.”
-- “We Count on Polish Women” poll by Kantar Millward Brown commissioned by Wysokie Obcasy, CATI, September 14-19, 2018, sample 1500 people, representative for the 18+ population. http://www.wysokieobcasy.pl/wysokie-obcasy/7,115167,23947620,pis-ma-34-proc-ko-22-biedron-8-ale-gdyby-glosowaly-tylko.html
-- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ DESCRIBES THE BACKGROUND OF THE PRIME MINISTER'S TALKS WITH GERSDORF: “A few days ago, the Prime Minister met with the First President of the Supreme Court. He sounded out her willingness for compromise. A considered option is to retain Gersdorf and offer the oldest Supreme Court judges a choice of whether they want to continue judging or retire on financially attractive terms. Morawiecki unofficially proposed such a compromise to the European Commission, which is attacking PiS's judicial laws. There is one problem. Such a solution would undermine the president's previous decisions, who sent several judges into retirement. It is unknown whether Andrzej Duda will agree to this.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/spor-o-sn-morawiecki-chce-malgorzate-gersdorf-jako-i-prezes-sn/j3w5qlz
-- GERSDORF REVEALS THE CONTENT OF THE CONVERSATION WITH THE PRIME MINISTER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/09/21/
-- KRYSTYNA GRZYBOWSKA, A JOURNALIST, HAS DIED. HER DAUGHTER - ALEKSANDRA RYBIŃSKA - INFORMED OF HER DEATH: https://wpolityce.pl/m/media/413211-dziennikarze-i-politycy-zegnaja-krystyne-grzybowska
-- THE BUTTERFLY WINGS IDEA IS FALLING APART - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “But the matter is serious. Here, Schetyna's idea with wings is clearly falling apart. He did it badly, clumsily, too early. The turbo-liberal Ms. Lubnauer, the turbo-left Ms. Nowacka, the turbo-national Mr. Giertych, the turbo-quickly-changed Mr. Ujazdowski - this does not form a flying machine, it cancels itself out, it destroys credibility. The nation watches and asks: What connects you, opposition, besides the lust for power and the desire for revenge?** Because certainly not any principles, not even a minimal common positive denominator.”
-- KARNOWSKI ON THE SOURCES OF THE OPPOSITION'S ATTACK ON THE PRIME MINISTER: “The opposition's own strategists probably feel this, which is why they prefer to divert attention from their strange regroupings, which is why they concentrate their fire on Prime Minister Morawiecki. It must have emerged from some research that people trust the head of government, that he is credible, that he is a very strong point for Jarosław Kaczyński's camp. They also see that he has become, alongside Patryk Jaki, an energetic and dynamic engine of the election campaign. Hence the precisely planned brutal operation of labeling the prime minister a "liar." Whatever the head of government says - the narrative starts that he deviates from the truth, that he lies, that he manipulates. One might get the impression that if he repeated Copernican theses, they would also go to court in an election procedure.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/413210-opozycja-nie-klam-morawiecki-slowa-dotrzymuje
-- JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ TELLS RZ ABOUT THE PROBABILITY OF PERMANENT BASES: “Probably the first decisions will be made next spring. The decision-making process in the USA is multi-layered. A few months ago, we presented the Americans with a project for the establishment of such a base. We announced that we are ready to invest from 1.5 to 2 billion dollars in its establishment, in the construction of infrastructure on our territory, although the system of further financing remains an open question. The White House and the State Department have recognized that such a project is justified and politically useful for America.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzad-PiS/180929919-Czaputowicz-Bialy-Dom-przychylny-bazie-w-Polsce.html&template=restricted
-- THEY WANT REVENGE ON DUDA AND 2015 - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “The desire to get back at President Duda on an image level, the desire for revenge for the humiliation of 2015, is an important motive for inflating a completely peripheral thread to unprecedented dimensions; to this thread, which sharply contrasts with the full picture of this visit or even with positive foreign reactions. And this should not be surprising. The only surprising thing is the scope of this procedure, engaged in by the same camp that fought for Komorowski's re-election. This, in turn, suggests that not much has changed in the media world after all.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/413205-ataki-na-prezydenta-dude-za-rzekoma-wpadke-to-proba-zemsty
-- FAKT ON SZCZERSKI'S MISTAKES: “Our sources have no doubts: he is responsible for the head of state's blunders. First with Australia – he was the originator of that trip. – He wanted to stay for 11 days, it was difficult to dissuade him – a person from the Presidential Palace tells Fakt. Then he came up with the declaration that the “visit should be memorable.” Only he didn't figure out where it would be signed. And he put the president in a bind, which is even being reported by the "Washington Post"... Although the president's entourage claims the visit was a success, the implication of the photo leaves no room for doubt.” https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/to-krzysztof-szczerski-odpowiada-za-feralne-zdjecie-dudy-z-trumpem/b8qs236
-- RZ ON EUROPEAN PARALYSIS - FRAGMENT ABOUT BREXIT from Jędrzej Bielecki's article: “In this situation, for the first time, individual EU countries began to establish contacts with the British behind the back of the EU negotiator, Michel Barnier. The Foreign Ministers of Poland, Romania, and Lithuania published a letter calling for maintaining close allied relations with London, and in Salzburg, May met privately with the Prime Minister of Ireland, Leo Varadkar. Just like with immigration, in the matter of Brexit, an unconventional vision is needed that will preserve the coherence of the single market, the unity of Great Britain, but also the freedom of movement in Ireland. For now, there is none.” https://www.rp.pl/Unia-Europejska/180929944-Szczyt-UE-w-Salzburgu-Paraliz-wspolnej-Europy.html&template=restricted
-- WP ON 30-YEAR-OLDS RUNNING FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT. INCLUDING ON MICHAŁ WOSIU FROM JEDYNKA (PiS) TO THE SILESIAN SEJMIK: https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/pokolenie-30-latkow-siega-po-wladze-zaczynaja-od-samorzadu-6296599955715713a
-- BIRTHDAYS YESTERDAY Krzysztof Sobolewski celebrated his birthday.
-- BIRTHDAYS TODAY: Tadeusz Jarmuziewicz, Basia Mastalerek, Jan Olbrycht, Alicja Murynowicz, Jolanta Fedak.
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