state of play: 09/14/2018

POLITICAL ARENA: Karnowski tempers PiS expectations: 5-6 regional assemblies already a success; Saryusz-Wolski: Article 7 will lead nowhere; Schetyna: I believe in building a coalition from Nowacka to Ujazdowski

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 13 YEARS AGO, Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz withdrew his candidacy for the presidential election.

-- PRZEMYSŁAW PAJĄK, FOUNDER OF THE LARGEST TECHNOLOGY SERVICE SPIDERSWEB, ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE DIRECTIVE: “Supporting this directive is a complete misunderstanding of how the modern online media market operates. Therefore, I am counting on most Polish media to come to their senses. The attempt to regulate traffic online shows a lack of understanding of reality. How readers function and navigate the internet. Media outlets trying to exploit the directive for their own benefit will suffer greatly, and the directive will backfire on them. Its provisions are a negation of free access to online content. It is thanks to this freedom that the Internet has become the most important, fastest, and best content provider of the 21st century.” https://www.spidersweb.pl/2018/09/acta-2-dyrektywa-ws-praw-autorskich.html

-- JACEK WOJCIECHOWICZ SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN DUE TO HIS 87-YEAR-OLD FATHER'S ACCIDENT: “On Wednesday evening, neighbors of Jacek Wojciechowicz’s father found the 87-year-old man in very bad condition. The elderly man was bruised and immobile. It is suspected that he fell down the stairs. The man is currently in serious condition in the hospital.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114883,23916522,jacek-wojciechowicz-zawiesza-kampanie-ze-wzgledow-rodzinnych.html

-- MORAWIECKI DISMISSES DEPUTY MINISTER - MARCIN MAKOWSKI ON WP: “In a discussion during a panel titled: ‘What kind of integration policy does Poland need?’, the Deputy Minister stated, among other things, that the influx of immigrants to our country must increase, and that ‘Poland must, and even if it doesn't want to, it should want’ such a situation, ‘because the prosperity of the most successful countries is built by migrants.’ According to Paweł Chorąży, only in this way will we achieve economic growth, which will not translate into lower wages for Poles. As the Deputy Minister stated, only with a constant influx of immigrants ‘will we be able to maintain economic development at the current level.’” https://opinie.wp.pl/news-wp-premier-byl-wsciekly-morawiecki-podjal-decyzje-o-zdymisjonowaniu-ministra-chorazego-zawazyly-wypowiedzi-o-imigrantach-6295185123436161a

-- REALISTICALLY SPEAKING, 5 REGIONAL ASSEMBLIES ALREADY WILL BE A SUCCESS - JACEK KARNOWSKI TEMPERS PIS EXPECTATIONS: “Gaining power in the regional assemblies for the ruling camp is therefore no small challenge. The numbers cited by some PiS politicians, oscillating between 8 and 10 assemblies, are definitely very, very ambitious. If PiS manages to secure or build a majority in 5 or 6 regional assemblies, it should be satisfied. Setting exaggerated expectations for local government is also a political mistake in the perspective of parliamentary elections. If PiS raises expectations to an unrealistic level, the opposition will be able to declare a great victory and gain momentum before the vote in 2019. Therefore, it is much better to keep one's feet on the ground.

-- KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “To achieve an independent majority in a regional assembly, a significant advantage over the second and third groups is needed, and this will not be easy in many regions. Especially since PO and PSL currently hold power in 15 regions; therefore, the entire network of connections and interests will strive to reproduce this power.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/411665-realnie-patrzac-5-lub-6-sejmikow-dla-pis-bedzie-sukcesem

-- JACEK SARYUSZ-WOLSKI ON THE EPP NOT EXPelling ORBÁN AND POLAND, THE CZECHS, AND ITALY VOTING AGAINST PUNISHING HUNGARY: “Perhaps the matter would have turned out differently if it weren't for the fact that it is already essentially an election campaign and there was very strong pressure from the media and the entire political left to stop defending Orbán. And they did it, in my opinion, tactically. My prediction is that the Hungarians will not leave the group, nor will they be expelled, although there will be a lot of noise. It is already known that Poles, Czechs, and Italians will vote against any sanctions against Hungary, and there will be many more such votes. Those who initiated this procedure knew from the outset that it would lead nowhere. So, the claim that this is about values and possibly influencing changes, all that can be put aside. This is about the instrumental use of Article 7 for political combat, whereas it was conceived as a tool for truly dangerous situations, as we know from history: e.g., Nazism. This instrument is becoming increasingly commonplace.”

-- SARYUSZ-WOLSKI DOES NOT BELIEVE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF CHANGES TO ACTA2 - THE DIRECTIVE HAS BEEN VOTED ON: “Generally speaking, no, because the directive has been voted on and has already moved to negotiations. What comes out of them depends on the balance of power in the Council. So, there may still be changes, modifications, I don't know if for better or worse.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/412117-nasz-wywiadsaryusz-wolski-polacy-czesi-i-wlosi-za-wegrami

-- ROMAN GRACZYK ON THE DIVISION OF EUROPE - writes in Nowa Konfederacja: “Whether we call it a Union of two or many speeds, or a Union of a hard core and the rest, or simply say that within the existing treaties, closer cooperation between some member states is permitted – it all amounts to the same thing. Along with Wednesday's vote, the probability of abandoning the assumption of Union unity (even if its realization was not literal) in favor of the assumption that there are more and less European states in the Union is strongly increasing. Regardless of the final outcome of the Article 7 procedure against Hungary, politically they will be relegated to the European equivalent of the dunce's stool. Commentators and politicians who point out that unanimity is required in the European Council at the end of this procedure, and it will not be achieved because Poland will vote against, are mathematically correct, but not politically (even if we agree to exclude all axiological considerations).” https://nowakonfederacja.pl/wegry-polska-dwa-bratanki/

-- DUDA SHOULD ASK ZABŁOCKI TO REMAIN ON THE BENCH - Paweł Wroński: “It is not Judge Zabłocki who is the president's subordinate, but Andrzej Duda should ask Judge Zabłocki to remain in his position. People like Judge Zabłocki have built the prestige and reputation of the Supreme Court for years. Duda has not yet brought prestige to his office.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23914356,honor-sedziego-zablockiego-honor-prezydenta-dudy-jakby-co.html

-- GRZEGORZ SCHETYNA TELLS JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ ABOUT BUILDING A COALITION FROM UJAZDOWSKI TO NOWACKA: “I believe in building a political coalition from Nowacka to Ujazdowski. We need a democratic community now, for the local government elections. We have a very broad response to PiS.”

-- NIZINKIEWICZ ASKS SCHETYNA ABOUT TRZASKOWSKI'S WITHDRAWAL: “You replaced Ujazdowski in Wrocław, perhaps you should have replaced the candidate for mayor of Warsaw?” and asks further: “Are alternative scenarios for Rafał Trzaskowski being considered in case he loses in the capital?”

-- SCHETYNA'S REPLY: “I deny that. There is no alternative scenario for Trzaskowski. He will be the mayor of the capital.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/309139860-Grzegorz-Schetyna-Wywodzimy-sie-z-Solidarnosci.html

-- OUR INTERESTS ARE LESS IMPORTANT THAN THOSE OF BERLIN AND PARIS - Marcin Fijołek: “And these are precisely the specific issues that are most important in the entire discussion about the EU. Not whether we like Juncker, not whether Timmermans is hosted at the Belvedere. When you get down to specifics, i.e., issues of the digital single market or the fight over energy policy and gas infrastructure, you see that there are no major differences here. That Germany, in cahoots with Russia, would try to exploit our country, regardless of whether someone from PiS or PO is at its head. And this, unfortunately, is also the reality of the EU – not just fine words, anthems, parties for Erasmus, and free roaming, but also the issue of Nord Stream 2, an energy directive coalition built by Poland, which is effectively blocked by the Berlin-Brussels coalition. You can be offended by reality, waving your hand at every such game, assuming that our interests will still be less important than those of Berlin or Paris. You can also close your eyes to this reality, convincing yourself that the EU is only positives, without challenges, problems, and complex phenomena. But you can – and indeed must – also engage in this game, sometimes winning, sometimes not.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/412099-proba-zrobienia-z-dudy-komorowskiego-bis-ma-glebsze-tlo

-- POLES ARE EXTREMELY PRO-EUROPEAN, DUDA IS SHOOTING HIMSELF IN THE FOOT - KRZYSZTOF PACEWICZ IN OKO: “The overwhelming majority of Polish women and men – 77% – believe that membership in the EU strengthens Poland's independence. Only 16% of respondents hold the opposite view – significantly less than the 23% who voted against Poland joining the Union in the 2003 accession referendum. Therefore, the narrative of Law and Justice that the European Union interferes too much in Poland's internal affairs, disrespecting our state's sovereignty, does not find support among the majority of society.” https://oko.press/falsz-dudy-wierze-ze-wiekszosc-polakow-chce-by-ue-zostawila-nas-w-spokoju/

-- ALEKSANDER SMOLAR ON THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN PAD'S RHETORIC AND THAT OF MORAWIECKI AND PIS: “What the president is saying is a combination of foolishness, arrogance, and a lack of contact with reality. I think he even went too far from the perspective of his party colleagues. These words have already reached Brussels, and when discussions about the situation in Poland continue, they will certainly be cited. It is therefore not accidental that both Chairman Jarosław Kaczyński and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki have recently tried not to attack the EU, but on the contrary, have tried to ease relations through silence.” https://wiadomo.co/aleksander-smolar-slowa-dudy-to-polaczenie-agresji-arogancji-i-pyszalkowatosci/

-- RAFAŁ KALUKIN - HOW COULD THE OLD ELITES REGAIN CREDIBILITY THAT THEY ARE CAPABLE OF IMPLEMENTING REAL CHANGES? “In turn, during the debate on Juncker's address, there were further warnings against the joint activity of Orbán and Kaczyński, who allegedly indoctrinate Western populist movements, trying to take control of them – much like Trump over the Republican Party. Whether this is true or false, it illustrates the scale of paralyzing fear. And let's also mention the truly real threat of Russian interference in European elections. A great confrontation therefore seems inevitable, and the outcome highly uncertain. This undoubtedly fuels alarmist tones. The same dilemma we face domestically is returning. Should we sound the alarm or propose new solutions? Should we shout 'constitution!' or design a new order? And how could the old elites regain credibility that they are still capable of implementing real changes?” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/1763786,1,kto-i-jak-zrozumial-przemowienie-szefa-komisji-europejskiej-o-stanie-ue.read

-- JACEK KARNOWSKI ON THE DECISIVE ELECTION CYCLE - BURYING THE OLD WORLD: “Another four years for the 'Good Change' will mean a permanent change in the rules of the game. It can open the door to a completely different political reality. It can definitively bury the old world, triggering tectonic shifts on the opposition's side. Conversely, a defeat for the ruling camp at this stage of reforming the state will allow many things to be reversed, while eliminating any threat to the 'born to rule' for a long time. The 2015 elections posed the question of whether change in Poland is even possible. The 2019 elections will revolve around the question of whether Poland can be permanently changed.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/412168-kolejne-wybory-moga-ostatecznie-pogrzebac-stary-swiat

-- GW DESCRIBES DUDU'S CAMPAIGN TEAM'S AGREEMENT WITH AN INTERNET COMPANY FROM FINANCIAL REPORTS IN THE NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION ARCHIVES: “For how many posts from fake accounts did Duda's election campaign pay? The documents only provide a partial answer – only for March 2015. ELCHUPACABRA billed Duda's campaign team PLN 40,590. At PLN 2 per entry, this amounts to over 20,000 posts.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23917763,boty-w-sluzbie-dudy-jak-manipulowano-internetem-w-kampanii.html

-- KATARYNA ON GW'S PUBLICATION: “Finally, a voice of reason, because I thought I was the only one who didn't understand the scandal of posting automatic entries on one's own website.” https://twitter.com/katarynaaa/status/1040497707520065536

-- KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA DESCRIBES THE CASE OF BEING ATTACKED WITH FAKE NEWS: PATRYK JAKI'S LABRADOR. HOW TO MANIPULATE USING FAKE NEWS - as Marcin Napiórkowski writes: “Let's draw it with crayons: Patryk Jaki posted a photo WITHOUT a labrador on his profile. The dog was added to it (intentionally clumsily) by AszDziennik to make a joke about the mispronounced breed name. A year later, political manipulators (I still hope this profile is a private troll initiative) take a satirical fake and present it as a cunning manipulation of the candidate. The thief shouts: 'Catch the thief!' The fake warns against fakes!” http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/manipulacja-fake-news-napiorkowski/

-- TODAY IS THE PREMIERE OF JASIEK KAPELA'S BOOK ABOUT HOW MEAT IS PRODUCED: “Kapela worked illegally catching poultry in a coop and was employed in a slaughterhouse to see, at the source, the conditions in which farmed chickens live and how they are later processed into meat. The book premiere is this Friday, September 14th!” http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kultura/czytaj-dalej/rewolucja-sojowego-latte-kapela/

-- BIRTHDAYS: Małgorzata Hajewska-Krzysztofik, Joanna Schmidt.


Łukasz Mężyk