state of play: 09/12/2018

STATE OF PLAY: Wednesday: I Don't Understand Biedroń's Critics, Liberal Media Shoot Him with Live Ammunition, Anaszewicz: The Old Opposition Isn't Coping, Woś: Liberals See the Left as an Appetizer

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 300LIVE: TRZASKOWSKI POSITIVE ABOUT HGW'S GOVERNMENT AND JAKI'S PROPOSAL FOR BUILDING A DUBAI IN WARSAW: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/09/12

-- ACTA2 VOTE EXPECTED AROUND NOON IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT TODAY.

-- GERMAN CONCERNS' FIGHT FOR INTERNET CONTROL - DR. MARIAN SZOŁUCHA ON RADIO MARYJA: “Since 2012, circles such as German publishers and their associations, centers behind troll farms spreading fake news, i.e., false information on the Internet, and extreme bureaucrats and proponents of total societal surveillance – have been intensely working to ensure that the last free medium becomes controlled by them to the greatest extent possible: to introduce barriers to entry for operating online, to limit access to information – and thus to knowledge – and to limit freedom of speech.” http://www.radiomaryja.pl/informacje/tylko-u-nas-dr-m-szolucha-o-acta-2-to-walka-niemieckich-koncernow-o-wplywy-finansowe-oraz-wprowadzenie-calkowitej-kontroli-w-internecie/

-- GW READERS' POLL ON THE OPPOSITION'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: TUSK 78%, BIEDROŃ 8%, TRZASKOWSKI 2%, MATCZAK 2%, FRASYNIUK 1%.

-- MAGDALENA ŚRODA IN GW: I CAN'T UNDERSTAND BIEDROŃ'S CRITICS: “I am unable to understand his critics – the Mayor of Słupsk has taken on the gargantuan task of activating passive citizens. Let me remind you: nearly half of voters stay home during elections! Some because they don't understand what democracy is and don't want to understand it, others (and there are millions of them) because they've sworn never to vote for Civic Platform again and haven't gone completely mad to support PiS. Robert Biedroń has energy, initiative, charm, is hardworking, and above all, likes people – he can achieve a lot and threaten few. Therefore, I don't understand why some influential and pro-democratic media are shooting at him with live ammunition. After all, they don't have a better ally, both in defending democracy and in activating dormant democrats.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23909213,kto-odmieni-oblicze-tej-ziemi.html

-- MARCIN ANASZEWICZ, BIEDROŃ'S CLOSE COLLABORATOR, STATES THE MOST IMPORTANT GOAL IS TO REMOVE PIS FROM POWER AND THAT THE COALITION AFTER THE ELECTIONS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE - in an interview with RZ: “We have two goals. First, we want to remove PiS from power. Second, we want the coalition that will govern Poland after the 2019 elections to be formed with the participation of progressive politicians who will impose a new narrative and new values on Civic Platform and Nowoczesna. We want to have a real influence on how laws are prepared, what the new shape of administration will be, how the justice system is reformed. We are convinced that today Civic Platform is not capable of effectively repairing Poland on its own. This is because Grzegorz Schetyna still represents the old way of thinking about politics. And we are interested in politics based on transparency, accountability, and broader inclusion of Poles in the governance process. We need a new quality of governance, and Civic Platform does not guarantee this.”

-- JAKI SET THE NARRATIVE AND IS A TRENDSETTER, THE WARSAW CAMPAIGN IS AN EXAMPLE OF HOW THE OLD OPPOSITION IS ON THE DEFENSIVE AGAINST PIS - ANASZEWICZ FURTHER IN RZ: “It's too early to say. The main part of the campaign is still ahead of us, although it's clear that Patryk Jaki has set the narrative so far, and PiS is the trendsetter in Warsaw. But calmly, we will not support Jaki. The campaign in Warsaw is another example of how the old opposition, Civic Platform, is on the defensive against PiS and has no ideas.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/309119901-Anaszewicz-Odsunac-PiS-i-zbudowac-progresywna-koalicje.html

-- JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI ON WEBER BEING AGAINST PUNISHING POLAND AND THE TIME FOR A NEW OPENING WITH BERLIN - writes in RZ: “However, much more is needed for a good deal between Berlin and Warsaw. Manfred Weber, Angela Merkel's candidate for the new head of the European Commission, signaled this week that he is against 'punishing' Poland within the rule of law procedure. This is a signal that Germany may be ready for a compromise, of course, as part of a broader package, likely including Polish concessions on Nord Stream 2, migration policy, and reparations. Electoral polls are convincing observers in Berlin that the strategy of 'waiting out' the PiS government is risky, and the current power structure in Poland may persist after the 2019 elections.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/309119904-Bielecki-Czas-na-nowe-otwarcie--z-Berlinem.html

-- ANDRZEJ DUDA GOES FOR A LOBSTER - Paweł Wroński in GW: “Poland will announce next week that it will purchase American Homar missile systems. This decision is linked to President Andrzej Duda's visit to the USA and his meeting with President Donald Trump. It is also intended as a form of compensation for Duda's humiliation in Australia, when it turned out that despite the announcements of his ministers, Poland would not buy two used Adelaide frigates.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23908773,andrzej-duda-leci-do-usa-po-homara.html#nowaZajawkaGlownaMT

-- FIGHT IN GDANSK'S PIS - Krzysztof Katka in GW: “Piotr Walentynowicz, grandson of Anna Walentynowicz and a Gdańsk councilor from the PiS club, claims that Janusz Śniadek deceived him with promises about a spot on the electoral list. Other PiS councilors are joining Śniadek's criticism.” http://trojmiasto.wyborcza.pl/trojmiasto/7,35612,23906613,klotnia-z-gdanskim-pis-zarzucaja-klamstwo-januszowi-sniadkowi.html

-- ŁUKASZ KIJEK CALCULATED ON GAETA.PL HOW MUCH 500+ FOR RETIREES WOULD COST: “This would be a very expensive election promise. According to data from the Social Insurance Institution (ZUS), there are currently 7.9 million retirees and pensioners in Poland. If the monthly boost were PLN 500 for each, it would cost the state budget PLN 47.4 billion annually. This is almost twice as much as the current annual cost of the 500+ program for families. And what about agricultural retirees? Including retirees and pensioners from KRUS eligible for the benefit, there would be 9.1 million people. Under this assumption, the entire program would cost as much as PLN 54.6 billion. Both scenarios mean the cost would be extremely high for public finances. It would not be possible to implement this without finding additional sources of funding. However, the political gain for PiS before the elections in such a scenario would likely be worthwhile.”

-- KIJEK ALSO CALCULATED A ONE-TIME 500+ FOR RETIREES ON A BABY BONUS BASIS: “This solution seems much more probable, as the cost of this operation would be more than ten times lower than in the first scenario. However, it would still be a huge expense. The additional benefit would cost the state budget PLN 4.5 billion annually. Such funds would likely be found in next year's budget.” http://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,23906069,500-plus-dla-emerytow-trzy-scenariusze-ile-to-moze-kosztowac.html

-- ACCORDING TO EWA SIEDLECKA, THE PRESIDENT IS BREAKING THE CONSTITUTION: “If the president takes the position that he does not recognize the Supreme Court's ruling on suspending the provisions on sending judges into early retirement – it means he is breaking the constitution. No representative of the authorities has the legal possibility to not recognize a final court ruling of any instance. If the Court of Justice issues an order suspending these provisions, and the president does not recognize them – he will break EU law. However, it is hard to imagine a situation where the judges of the Supreme Court do not comply with the Supreme Court's ruling on suspending the provisions. Therefore, they should adjudicate while awaiting the decision of the CJEU. This applies to judges: Anna Owczarek, Maria Szulc, Wojciech Katner and Jacek Gudowski from the Civil Chamber, President of the Criminal Chamber Stanisław Zabłocki, President of the Labour Chamber Józef Iwulski, and judge of this Chamber Jerzy Kuźniar.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1763546,1,prawo-pis-prawo-sadu-najwyzszego.read

-- ZAWISTOWSKI TELLS STANKIEWICZ HE HAS NO CHOICE: “From Minister Mucha's statements, it follows that I have been designated to replace Professor Gersdorf when she is not in court – Judge Zawistowski tells Onet. – This is a possibility provided for in Article 14 of the Act on the Supreme Court. Previously, Judge Józef Iwulski held this role, but – as I understand it – the president suggests he will not agree to his further adjudication due to exceeding the age of 65. Relying on Article 14 actually gives me no room for maneuver, because this article states that the First President, in case of his absence, is replaced by 'the Supreme Court Justice with the longest service in the position of judge' – the judge explains.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/dariusz-zawistowski-malgorzata-gersdorf-pozostaje-pierwsza-prezes-sadu-najwyzszego/1p7plh0

-- LIBERALS CONSIDER THE LEFT AS THEIR APPETIZER - Rafał Woś in conversation with Piotr Skwieciński: “I wanted to tell the left that if they accept the thesis from the outset that your side only wants to destroy them and send them to prison, the consequences will be disastrous for the left's subjectivity. For years, it has been the case in Poland that liberals consider the left as their appetizer. They know that the left will protest a bit, and then grudgingly admit that one cannot waste votes on Razem, Śpiewak, or other Biedroń. Because PiS must be stopped. For liberals, this is ideal logic. For the left – it's condemning themselves to a lack of political subjectivity and independence.”

-- WOŚ ON THE HARMFUL NARRATIVE OF IDENTITY MEDIA: “This is largely the fault of identity media, on both sides. Their narrative causes both sides to eventually stop seeing each other as human beings. And yet, publicists largely created this division, invented it, and then believed in it […] Journalists seem to think that if someone supported a particular formation at some point, they do so with their whole being and for life.”

-- WOŚ ON THE UNSETTLING MOOD ON THE LIBERAL SIDE: “I observe with concern the mood visible on the liberal side, which could be summed up by the words 'we made a mistake by giving up power'. This is dangerous for democracy. I fear that a similar mindset might also sprout on your side […] And I want to be sure that I have done everything I could to prevent this.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/411754-wos-dla-sieci-pis-moze-potrzebowac-lewicowego-partnera

-- BIRTHDAYS: Adam Bielan, Paweł Ciacek turns 50, Anna Dryjańska, Barbara Dolniak.


Łukasz Mężyk