state of play: 08/28/2018

POLITICAL ARENA: Karnowski on Polexit: Hypothetical, Unreal, and Potentially Fatal; GW on a Crawling Polexit; SE on Morawiecki's Hard Work While His Family Holidays; Jagiełło on PKO BP's Best Quarter Ever

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PKO BP'S BEST QUARTER EVER - ZBIGNIEW JAGIEŁŁO SAID AT THE EARNINGS CONFERENCE: "This was the best quarter in terms of banking business performance in the history of PKO Bank Polski."

-- BUSINESS INSIDER WRITES THAT PKO HAS REASONS TO BE PLEASED: "PKO BP shareholders can be satisfied. In the second quarter, the bank earned a net profit of PLN 933 million. This is nearly PLN 80 million more than a year ago. The market expected such results. https://businessinsider.com.pl/gielda/wiadomosci/pko-bp-wyniki-finansowe-w-drugim-kwartale-2018-r/13b4xep"

-- MORAWIECKI SENT HIS FAMILY ON HOLIDAY WHILE HE WORKED HARD - SE'S FRONT PAGE STORY: "Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's (50) wife and children decided to take advantage of the last days of their vacation and go to the seaside! Unfortunately, the head of government could not be with them. The reason? Morawiecki, due to the local government campaign, is working almost every day and meeting with people across Poland, in addition to overseeing the most important matters in the country. https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/zona-i-dzieci-premiera-wypoczywaja-nad-morzem-morawiecki-wyslal-rodzine-na-wakacje-a-sam-haruje-zdjecia-aa-eNMB-Kf41-A7bd.html"

-- FOLLOWING IN TUSK'S FOOTSTEPS, SCHETYNA WON'T GET FAR; ANOTHER FAIRY TALE ABOUT AN ECONOMIC MIRACLE WON'T FLY - JACEK KARNOWSKI:"There is a fundamental difference, however: back then, Civic Platform (PO) was a party that had not governed before; that's why the trick worked. Today, Schetyna has 8 years of PO's governance behind him, in many areas brutal governance, as well as PiS's successes in building social cohesion. And that's why after the billboard campaign, polls clearly shifted, but in the opposite direction. To quote the PO's 2007 campaign spot: Poles know what they're doing, because they are 'a great and wise nation.' It's interesting whether Grzegorz Schetyna will continue down this dead-end street. https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/409449-idac-wiernie-tropem-tuska-schetyna-daleko-nie-zajdzie"

-- WILL WASSERMANN BECOME PI_S'S IRON LADY - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: "Andrzej Duda failed in Krakow, and now the royal city is to be reclaimed by Małgorzata Wassermann - the rising star of the right. In three months, it will be clear whether she will become the new 'iron lady' of PiS.

-- ADAMCZYK IS SCATTERING CASH IN MAŁOPOLSKA, WHICH PLATFORM SOMEHOW DIDN'T HAVE - GĄDEK QUOTES MAJCHROWSKI'S COLLABORATOR: "The point is that although people don't like PiS, and Majchrowski is supported by PO, it's somehow that during the Platform's rule, there was no money for investments in Krakow's roads. And now PiS minister Andrzej Adamczyk is showering money - including for the bypass. - Adamczyk somehow secured money that the Platform didn't have - says one of Majchrowski's associates."

-- GĄDEK ON AN AFFLICTED MAJCHROWSKI: "After four terms in office, Prof. Jacek Majchrowski appears weary of holding power. His wife has urged him to retire every election, but the president is determined to run for a fifth - and longer, 5-year - term. However, he has never found it as difficult as he does now. A PiS politician from Krakow says: Małgorzata Wassermann is the strongest challenger to Majchrowski since he started running. http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,23818494,nowa-zelazna-dama-pis-u-andrzej-duda-nie-dal-rady-teraz.html"

-- JAKI PRESENTS A FILM ABOUT THE EXPANSION OF NEW METRO LINES, MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI ON THE THIRD CANDIDATE WHO CAN WIN AGAINST JAKI - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/08/28/

-- THE VERY IDEA OF LEAVING THE EU IS NOT EVEN CONSIDERED IN THE RULING CAMP - JACEK KARNOWSKI: "The truth is banal: not only is no serious person in the ruling camp thinking about leaving the European Union, but such an idea isn't even circulating. I have never met anyone who would even pose that question - whether seriously or jokingly. And Jarosław Kaczyński himself - as he has said publicly more than once - considers the European Union a modern way of organizing the continent politically, and therefore - regardless of one's assessment of the community itself - he deems Poland's presence in the EU necessary.

-- A HYPOTHETICAL, UNREAL, AND POTENTIALLY FATAL POLEXIT SCENARIO - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: "Meanwhile, 'Polexit' (again: hypothetical, unreal, and potentially fatal) could mean greater misfortune for the opposition than for the ruling party. Because they hold the most important cards. Because they define the rules of the game. They set the standards. https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/409602-snujac-marzenia-o-polexicie-opozycja-popelnia-wielki-blad"

-- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON THE MOTIVES BEHIND GOWIN'S STATEMENT - PRESSURE ON THE CJEU:"Gowin's statement is a skillfully constructed pressure on the CJEU itself. We know that on Monday, the Court of Justice of the European Union began hearing the request of the Supreme Court, and although the entire case will take at least several good months, Poland wants to send a clear signal right at the beginning - don't play dirty with us. It's no secret that the Polish government anticipates that some provisions of the Act on the Supreme Court may be challenged or negatively assessed. If it were to end with some form of financial compensation for Prof. Małgorzata Gersdorf, Law and Justice politicians would shrug it off. The concern relates to a scenario where the CJEU might accept the "suspension" of part of the act and order the reversal of changes concerning the Supreme Court back to August 2018 (election of judges, appointment of the First President, etc.). The losses, not only in image but also political, would be enormous, and the situation, understandably, would be compared to a withdrawal from another important area of activity (after the Act on the Institute of National Remembrance).

-- AN INTERESTING BUT NOT ENTIRELY SAFE GAME - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: "The United Right government has entered into an interesting, but not entirely safe, game with EU institutions - it is not doomed to failure, although achieving the full prize seems difficult to realize. Such a thesis likely does not fully satisfy either side, but it is simply a fact. And there is no point in being offended by reality. https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/409542-test-gra-na-czas-presja-obawy-o-slowach-gowina-nt-tsue"

-- A SLOWLY PROGRESSING POLEXIT - GW's front page story (Bielecki, Kondzińska). [No text available on wyborcza.pl homepage]

-- DIDN'T BELIEVE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF POLEXIT? WELL, HERE'S YOUR PROOF - Bartosz T. Wieliński in GW: "The dispute with the Commission would also enter a new level. The arguments of the PiS government that the rule of law has never been better protected in Poland would be considered a weak joke in the face of ignoring the CJEU's ruling. Relations with other member states would also suffer significantly. Yes, if the scenario outlined today by Deputy Prime Minister Gowin were to come true, Poland would take another significant step outside the community. Gowin, who just six months ago said that Polexit was a 'delusional fear,' is aware of this, as he immediately tries to shift the blame to the European Union and its court. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,23829842,nie-wierzyliscie-ze-rzad-pis-moze-doprowadzic-do-polexitu.html"

-- A SENSE OF THREAT CAME FROM THE GOVERNMENT CAMP - Bogusław Chrabota, Editor-in-Chief of RZ: "It remains clear that he simply got ahead of the orchestra. He gave public expression to the sentiments prevailing in the ruling coalition. He said aloud what is being whispered in PiS.

-- FOR BUSINESS, GOWIN'S WORDS ARE A SIGNAL TO FOLD UP THE SAILS - CHRABOTA CONTINUES: "Europe has heard that one of the highest-ranking Polish politicians is announcing a Polish government rebellion against European institutions. The conflict with the EU over the rule of law is escalating. He threatens that Poland will fall out of Europe's legal system. For many, this is a clear announcement of Polexit, for some - like constitutionalist Ryszard Piotrowski - a suspension of the Polish constitution. For business, domestic and foreign capital, it's a signal to fold up the sails. Was this really what Jarosław Gowin intended? https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/180829427-Chrabota-Za-sprawa-Gowina-powialo-groza.html"

-- TOMASZ PIETRYGA WRITES IN RZ THAT A HEAD-ON COLLISION WITH THE CJEU IS UNLIKELY: "Therefore, it is unlikely that PiS will go for a head-on collision with the CJEU. The involvement of a representative of the prosecutor general in the dispute with the Supreme Court, the request to the Constitutional Tribunal to examine its powers to freeze regulations, and perhaps in September another amendment to the Act on the Supreme Court are intended rather to defuse this dispute on Polish soil. Moreover, time is currently playing into PiS's hands. The procedure before the CJEU, even an accelerated one, will not end in a few days, and a verdict is expected in late autumn. By then, the Supreme Court will have been supplemented. https://www.rp.pl/Opinie/308289983-Jak-wytlumaczyc-wyborcom-koszty---komentuje-Tomasz-Pietryga.html"

-- KRZYSZTOF PACEWICZ ON THE IPSOS POLL FOR OKO.PRESS, WHICH SHOWS THAT... THE MAJORITY OF POLES APPROVE OF POLAND'S CONSECRATION TO THE BLACK MADONNA:"We expected, therefore, that the majority of Poles would consider the Prime Minister's actions at the Radio Maryja pilgrimage to Jasna Góra inappropriate. We assumed that it was primarily aimed at the radio-Maryja electorate. Meanwhile, the majority of Poles support the act of entrusting Poland to the care of the Black Madonna. Perhaps for many Poles, Morawiecki's speech is reminiscent of the words spoken by a priest during mass (similar vocabulary, syntax, environment), and that is why they consider it 'appropriate.' Thanks to the positive force of this association, they are willing to overlook the violation of the principle of separation of church and state. Men, the young, the educated, the wealthy, and those from large cities are against it. Women, the elderly, the poor, the less educated, and those from smaller towns are 'for' it. https://oko.press/wiekszosc-polakow-popiera-zawierzenie-polski-czarnej-madonnie-przez-morawieckiego-sondaz/"

-- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON ALL POLITICAL LEADERS BEING UNDER PRESSURE IN THESE ELECTIONS:"It so happened that in these extremely difficult elections for political parties, all their leaders are 'under pressure' this year. For Grzegorz Schetyna, losing some regional assemblies or mayors would be an internal defeat and would cast a question mark over his leadership. For Jarosław Kaczyński, it's a test of the political effectiveness of his deputy, Mateusz Morawiecki, who has never led an election campaign on his own. Older activists will be watching the PSL leader, and God forbid if he loses more than 20 percent in local government elections... For Paweł Kukiz, the local government results could be a harsh verdict on his entire party. The left also has a lot to lose: Włodzimierz Czarzasty is fighting with all his might for parliament, and a local government defeat could be particularly painful in this context. https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/180829424-Wybory-samorzadowe-Nie-bedzie-zdjec-z-duzymi-politycznymi-misiami.html&template=restricted"

-- I'LL SELL THE PRESIDENT'S HEADQUARTERS - Iwona Szpala in GW: "So, if Metropol has its way and sells Nowogrodzka Street, Jarosław Kaczyński will temporarily be homeless, and Srebrna at Aleje Jerozolimskie can provide shelter for the president and the party. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23832573,aaaaaa-gabinet-prezesa-kaczynskiego-sprzedam-izraelska-spolka.html"

-- WILL THE PRESIDENT CHANGE THE COMPOSITION OF THE DISCIPLINARY CHAMBER? - Grzegorz Osiecki in DGP: "– I would be surprised if there wasn't a correction – one of the PiS politicians tells us. For now, it's difficult to get information on this matter at the Presidential Palace. – I don't know what the president's decision will be – says an official of Andrzej Duda. – It would be reasonable for the president to postpone decisions regarding nominations until the complaint filed by the Supreme Court with the Court of Justice of the EU is resolved. However, this is likely unrealistic. The president should decide whether these are the right candidates. He himself claimed that he is not just a notary, but makes decisions on this matter – says, in turn, the spokesperson for the Supreme Court, Judge Michał Laskowski. Regardless of Andrzej Duda's final decisions, the establishment of a new chamber could completely change the shape of disciplinary justice. http://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/580008,sklad-izby-dyscyplinarnej-sn-prezydent-duda.html"

-- KATARZYNA KOLENDA-ZALESKA ON DESTROYED TRUST AND INSTITUTIONS THAT WILL NOT DEFEND ANYONE - writes in GW: "PiS constantly boasts about the 500 plus program as an example of fulfilled promises. That's true. The program exists. The promise is fulfilled. But in the process, such devastation has been wrought on the state's fabric that we will not recover for years. At some point, a critical moment will arrive. It will not be a gentle moment. Destroyed institutions will not defend anyone, because they will cease to serve the citizen and will exclusively serve the authorities. 500 plus will not replace this, although no one questions the need for this program today. Democracy without institutions is as empty as without citizens' trust in these institutions. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23832617,zniszczone-zaufanie.html"

-- BŁĘKITNY24's 11th Birthday!

-- BIRTHDAYS:Julia Szyndzielorz, Piotr Skolimowski.


Łukasz Mężyk