state of play: 08/22/2018

THE STATE OF PLAY: Danielewski on the PO-led coalition failing to capture all left-wing and PSL votes, Dąbrowska on Biedroń and Czarzasty's non-aggression pact

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SURPRISINGLY LOW DEFICIT IN GOVERNMENT PLANS FOR 2019 - headline in Rzeczpospolita.

-- NO NEW ELECTORAL SWEETENERS - Rzeczpospolita on the budget.

-- MODERATELY FRUGAL BUDGET - headline in Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

-- 300LIVE: THE PRIME MINISTER ON THE RIGHT-WING WINNING MORE REGIONAL ASSEMIES https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/08/22/

-- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA WRITES ABOUT THE NON-AGGRESSION PACT BETWEEN BIEDROŃ AND CZARZASTY AND QUOTES BIEDROŃ ON NOWACKA IN PO: "There have been reports that the leader of Inicjatywa Polska has been tempted by Civic Platform (PO) and will run on their European Parliament list. – I still dream of working with her – Biedroń declares – I don’t believe she will join PO. She would dissolve into ideological nothingness – he adds. Quietly, PO politicians are pleased that 'if Biedroń harms anyone, it will most likely be SLD and Włodzimierz Czarzasty'. However, according to our information, a 'non-aggression pact' has been initialed between the two camps, according to which both sides are to refrain from mutual attacks 'as long as possible'. https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/180829857-Biedron-marzy-o-drzewie-oliwnym.html

-- THE COALITION LED BY PO WILL NOT CAPTURE ALL LEFT-WING VOTES - writes Michał Danielewski in Gazeta Wyborcza: "Firstly, if there is a clash of two blocs in the autumn of 2019 – the ruling camp and the opposition – Jarosław Kaczyński will win again. In most polls from the last two months, the sum of votes for PiS with its affiliates (Kukiz’15, Wolność) is greater than or equal to the sum of the electorates of the opposition parties. Furthermore, with a bipolar division of the political scene, PiS will easily capture the entire right flank, while a coalition led by PO would almost certainly not capture all left-wing and PSL votes. Secondly, without the left in parliament, ousting PiS from power will be extremely difficult. Jarosław Kaczyński's party will likely achieve the highest percentage result, and the fewer groupings there are in parliament, the greater the bonus the winner will receive."

-- DANIELEWSKI ON BIEDROŃ LEADING THE LEFT: "Rafał Woś recently published an article on Gazeta.pl with the absurd thesis that the left should build socialism with Jarosław Kaczyński. The idea is horrendous. However, Woś is right on one point – the left in Poland will not cope without a patron. Obviously, it cannot be the xenophobic, homophobic PiS, so that leaves Robert Biedroń in the role of 'the Polish Macron'. Such an alliance would bend several spines and would not be without costs, but it is worth remembering that while Macronism in France means a market correction of the system, in a neoliberal and increasingly authoritarian Poland it would mean a social, democratic, and egalitarian correction." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23810869,wybory-lewica-problem-koalicja-z-biedroniem-sld-i-razem.html

-- KATARZYNA WĘŻYK ON WOŚ'S ARTICLE: "Both Woś and Majcherek are fixated on the 'economy, stupid' argument. Majcherek would trade women's and LGBT rights, a secular state, and clean air for a tap with warm water in the Third Republic, and Woś – for 500+ (child benefit), the hourly wage, and the ban on Sunday trading. For me, both attitudes are equally dangerous. (...) I am very grateful for such a state – just as for one that discriminates against people of other than heterosexual orientations, pollutes the air, fuels hatred towards foreigners, and embraces fascists. 500+ is not enough to compensate for the loss of fundamental rights." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23811146,nie-ma-mowy-o-wspolpracy-z-pis-do-kaczynskiego-przemawia-tylko.html

-- JAKUB BIERZYŃSKI COMPARES WOŚ'S PROPOSAL TO PAX DURING THE PRL: "Woś proposes cohabitation with the right instead. He claims that PiS will rule for subsequent terms and sees a place for the left as a licensed, tolerated opposition under an authoritarian government. Its role would be to maintain dialogue, temper the right's impulses, dissuade PiS from obvious mistakes, and so on. This line of thinking vividly resembles the strategy of some Catholic circles in communist Poland. I understand that Woś's idea is to come to terms with the right-wing's dominance for years and attempt assimilation into the new environment in the style of the PRON club 'PAX'.

-- BIERZYŃSKI TO THE LEFT: DO NOT TAKE REVENGE ON DEMOCRACY FOR YOUR OWN FAILURES: "It is not liberals who are responsible. It was not PO or Nowoczesna that took votes away from Polish left-wing parties – it was PiS that stole your agenda. It was the right that took over your electorate by using social slogans. Why did PiS announce 500+, raise the minimum wage, and introduce an hourly wage? Why wasn't it the left that won the last elections by advocating a social package and restoring dignity for the work and lives of ordinary people? I understand your bitterness with liberal democracy. Voters have severely punished you. They punished you for lacking a convincing program, for lacking a vision and a leader. But do not take revenge on democracy for it! It is not its fault, but yours. You have no alternative anyway. Undermining 'liberal democracy' is the cry of a carp demanding an accelerated Christmas Eve dinner. You are simply completely out of touch with reality. Both of you."

-- BIERZYŃSKI ON THE "COUCH" NEW LEFT: "Fortunately, these are only deliberations on the couch with soy lattes, because the new left is a couch-bound group. Since it has 2-3 percent support, whether it decides to collaborate with the regime or not, it doesn't matter much. Except for propagandistic value for the ruling camp. Well, nothing is free." http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,161770,23808281,bierzynski-lewico-i-wosiu-nie-idzcie-ta-droga-waszym-wrogiem.html

-- DO NOT STEP ON DUDĘ - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR WRITES ON GAZETA.PL THAT THE PRESIDENT "CAN BE USEFUL TO DEMOCRATS": "It is not the change of the Constitutional Tribunal, the Supreme Court, the National Council of the Judiciary, but precisely the change of the electoral law for the Sejm that is the most dangerous idea of the 'good change'. With a new electoral law and such a weak opposition as PO, the 'good change' will remain in power for two, three terms. And it is clear that PiS will want to implement such a change. Orbán implemented it, thanks to which, despite huge crowds at the polls in Budapest, he remains in power because the Hungarian province, which loves him, now decides the election results. Therefore, anyone who truly understands the scale of the danger should not only not shy away from a tactical alliance with Andrzej Duda, but should even encourage Zandberg and Kukiz to such an alliance." http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,161770,23805656,galopujacy-major-nie-deptac-dudy-tumani-smieszy-irytuje.html

-- MACIEJ STAŃCZAK ON TWITTER, ABOUT THE WOMAN TRZASKOWSKI VISITED: Trzaskowski blurred Mrs. Bożena's name, whose window pane he was fixing with tape, so much that it was hard to find her. It turns out she is a friend of 'Ruda' (Redhead), who disrupts meetings with @PatrykJaki. I understand that the door-to-door campaign is only for Mr. Trzaskowski's friends? #RobotaRafała https://twitter.com/stanczykmaciej/status/1032177549655330816?s=12

-- ANOTHER TWEET ABOUT A KOD ACTIVIST VISITED BY TRZASKOWSKI: Bożena Misiak - Sołtysik. A KOD activist and friend of Magda Klim, known for Palikot Movement provocations as 'Ruda'. It was at this 'completely accidental' Warsaw resident's place that Trzaskowski was replacing a window pane. No comment needed. https://twitter.com/wiktorkoss/status/1032184439999262720?s=12

-- WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI WRITES THAT PIS POLITICIANS KNEW ABOUT THE TAPE AFFAIR: "An officer from the Wrocław delegation of the Central Anticorruption Bureau (CBA) admitted in an official note that he met with one of the PiS politicians before the wiretapping scandal erupted. And the Bureau official responsible for contacts with Marek Falenta was promoted to head of the Warsaw delegation." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23810829,podsluchy-i-ludzie-kaminskiego-c-d.html

-- POLICE PROTECT A SWASTIKA - Gazeta Wyborcza front page.

-- PIS BLACKLISTS CAN UNDERMINE TRUST IN POLAND - Zbigniew Parafianowicz and Michał Potocki in Dziennik Gazeta Prawna about Kozłowska: "The cases of Ludmyła Kozłowska and Swiatosław Szeremeta raise questions about the purposes for which regulations valid in the Schengen area can be used." http://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/579657,sprawy-ludmyly-kozlowskiej-i-swiatoslawa-szeremety-pis-zaufanie-do-polski.html

-- JAN ŚPIEWAK ON JAKI, WHO IS RUSHING FORWARD - spoke in Jacek Nizinkiewicz's program: "He is rushing forward like a hurricane, like a battering ram, and what's more, everyone is campaigning for him, from liberal media to Civic Platform itself."

-- ŚPIEWAK ON JAKI BECOMING THE FAVORITE: "Well, everything indicates that Patryk Jaki is becoming the favorite. The polling trend is clear, he is going up, Rafał Trzaskowski's support is rather falling, staying at... To be honest, it mainly stems from the weakness of PO, which behaves as if it were April 2015 again, as if there was no one to lose to. There is the same arrogance, the same short-sightedness, lack of proposals..." https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-samorzadowe/180829922-Spiewak-Media-liberalne-i-PO-robia-kampanie-Jakiemu-Jest-juz-chyba-faworytem.html

-- KACPER PŁAŻYŃSKI SUMMARIZES VISITS TO 33 DISTRICTS OF GDAŃSK: "I propose that a renovation fund be established for each district council, aimed at carrying out minor repairs to sidewalks, lighting, and various things that district councils know best. This fund would be three times the basic budget on which district councils in Gdańsk are based. The total cost of all these renovation funds would be approximately 5 million PLN today." https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/408706-plazynski-podsumowal-akcje-gdansk-jest-dla-wszystkich -- 11 URBAN MOVEMENTS SUPPORTING GLUSMAN SHOW THEIR LEADERS: "The primary task for the coalition of 11 urban movements will be to block investments inconsistent with local spatial development plans, undertaken under 'lex developer' – announced representatives of the coalition, inaugurating the election campaign for the Warsaw City Council. – We will be running in these local elections as the Coalition of Urban Movements so that Warsaw and decisions important for our city are finally made with the participation of residents – said Justyna Glusman, the urban movements' candidate for the mayor of the capital, at a press conference on Tuesday during which the list leaders for the Warsaw City Council elections were presented." https://tvnwarszawa.tvn24.pl/informacje,news,ruchy-miejskie-pokazuja-jedynki-chca-walczyc-z-lex-deweloper,268997.html

-- POLISH BUSINESS FOR THE EURO - Rzeczpospolita front page: "As many as 74% of large and medium-sized companies want a common currency. Such enthusiasm has not been seen for years. This high level of support from business representatives for replacing the national currency with the euro is indicated by survey research conducted in July by Millward Brown on behalf of the auditing and consulting firm Grant Thornton. In 2015, this percentage, after five years of decline, was only 42%. It was as high as today in 2011, when the financial crisis in the eurozone was just escalating." https://www.rp.pl/artykul/1375844-Polski-biznes-przeprosil-sie-z-europejska-waluta.html

-- EDWIN BENDYK SPEAKS TO MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI ON KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA ABOUT CADRE CHANGES IN LOCAL GOVERNMENTS: "In the last elections, 40 percent of city mayors and a similar percentage of town mayors were replaced, so the democratic mechanism worked even where the government did not sense which way the wind was blowing. A bigger problem, felt especially in smaller municipalities, is the low competitiveness of elections, meaning a lack of people willing to participate in the fight for power."

-- BENDYK ON CLASSSISM: "In addition, the excluded must be 'recognized' and integration mechanisms built. Today, the excluded in Poland are as culturally foreign to the middle class as Ukrainians or other immigrants, or even more so. This will be difficult, especially with Polish classism. It might be easier to achieve this with people with disabilities, who constitute about 10 percent of any population. Integrating them into active city life is often a matter of minor technical solutions; one only needs to go to Berlin to see how many people who are invisible in Poland, because they cannot leave their homes, live full urban and professional lives. There is no reason why we couldn't increase the supply of people actively creating the city by a few percent – those who today are condemned to marginalization and what we saw recently in the Sejm." http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/bendyk-panstwo-uczy-sie-wolniej-niz-miasta/

-- BIRTHDAYS: Marcin Kierwiński, Longin Pastusiak, Kazimierz Wóycicki, Konstanty Gebert.


Łukasz Mężyk