state of play: 08/18/2018

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Majmurek on Biedroń as the Left's "Political Startup," PiS Spot on Opposition Squabbles, and Górski & Cieślik on Trzaskowski: "Perhaps He'll Be the Night Mayor If He Loses"

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TOTAL CHAOS IS NOT A PROGRAM FOR POLAND - PiS PRESENTS A SPOT AND ASKS THE OPPOSITION ABOUT ITS PROGRAM: https://300polityka.pl/news/2018/08/18/totalna-awantura-to-nie-program-dla-polski-pis-przedstawia-spot-i-pyta-po-o-program/

-- ROBERT GÓRSKI AND MARIUSZ CIEŚLIK IN RZ: “And on a related note, Rafał Trzaskowski announced he would establish the office of the ‘night mayor.’ He’ll be just right for the job if he loses the election for day mayor.” http://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1383479-Trybunal-dla-Janusza.html

-- HOW BIEDROŃ DEFUSED THE HOMOPHOBE'S ATTACK: WE ARE UNITED BY POLAND http://www.dziennik.pl/amp/579481,biedron-narodowcy-homofobia-zakaz-pedalowania-selfie-lgbt.html

-- BIEDROŃ'S ENTRY - A POLITICAL STARTUP BENEFICIAL TO THE LEFT - Jakub Majmurek in GW: “At the same time, the European elections will, I believe, be a cold, sobering shower for the left. If they present three or more lists, none will achieve a good result – even if one crosses the threshold for a share of the mandates. Then a political opportunity will arise for Biedroń. If his list achieves a good result in the European elections, today’s mayor of Słupsk will become the natural candidate for the main player on the left. Which, in turn, is an opportunity for the entire left. -- THE SOCIAL ELECTORATE WILL NOT VOTE FOR A FREE-MARKET, CENTRE-RIGHT OPPOSITION - CONTINUES MAJMUREK: "Complaints that Biedroń is 'going it alone' would be understandable if the only chance to defeat PiS was to build a single bloc uniting the entire opposition. However, if PiS does not change the electoral law for parliamentary elections – and it seems the presidential center will not agree to it – then such a strategy is not very fortunate. The anti-PiS bloc will find it very difficult to gain an independent majority. The tone will be set by pro-market centre-right parties, which even the terrified social and identity-left electorate of PiS is unlikely to vote for, even if they are morally blackmailed into handing Poland over to Kaczyński. -- IN POLITICS, ONE CANNOT FOREVER HAVE PROMISING PROSPECTS - MAJMUREK'S CONCLUSION: "Of course, for now, we are operating under conditional terms. It is unknown whether Biedroń will create structures, what program he will present, how he will fare in elections, whether he will be able to implement any changes for the electorate not represented by the PO-PiS duopoly. But he must eventually try. In politics, one cannot forever have promising prospects. -- BIEDROŃ'S MOVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE SPLITTING OF THE OPPOSITION - Witold Gadomski in GW: “He will be in a situation like Jan Śpiewak in Warsaw. He will attack the right feebly, as he won't gain much from that side. But he will lash out at the democratic coalition, weakening (I hope not significantly) its potential. His entry onto the national stage will likely harm, rather than help, democratic groupings, increasing chaos and information noise.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,23796580,biedron-polski-macron.html

-- DORN'S RATHER CONTEMPTUOUS VIEW OF BIEDROŃ:“The leader of a potential new party is primarily a breakfast cereal box, but there are no flakes inside.”

-- BIEDROŃ'S NEW PARTY WILL FIGHT EVERYONE EXCEPT PiS - LUDWIK DORN:“Robert Biedroń's situation is different: the packaging, yes, it's eye-catching, but the flakes inside don't crunch. The flakes crunch in other packaging: PO, SLD, and the non-SLD left. One would have to tear open those foils and wrappers to grab some flakes for oneself. Robert Biedroń's potential initiative will be aimed precisely at these formations, and to gather political support for himself, 'Kocham Polskę' [I Love Poland] will have to fight hard and bloody battles, actually against everyone except PiS and PSL. Little will remain of love.”

-- BIEDROŃ WILL HAVE TO FIGHT IN THE MUD - CONTINUES DORN: “Furthermore, a new party must fight. Robert Biedroń’s potential party will have to fight strong opponents from the anti-PiS opposition. It will have to attack and will be furiously attacked. And fighting dirties with mud and more noxious substances, the foil wrappers tear, and the gilding peels off. Of course, a person is not a glass, but Robert Biedroń himself does not give the impression of a political warrior.”

-- BIEDROŃ AS THE LEFT'S KORWIN? - DORN: “For now, it seems Biedroń is counting on crossing the electoral threshold in the European Parliament elections, and these hopes may not be unfounded. Voter turnout in the EP elections will be between 23% and 25%, which means voters with strong political identifications, sympathies, and antipathies will be overrepresented. Janusz Korwin-Mikke’s party also crossed the threshold in those elections and obtained mandates, but in the Sejm elections, it fell below the threshold. This will likely be the fate of Robert Biedroń's initiative, and taking on the role of the left's Korwin will mean he will constantly rage on portals and the internet. There was already one left-wing Korwin – his name is Janusz Palikot, and it didn't go particularly well for him. And – to repeat after the classic – repetitions of history usually take the form of farce.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,161770,23794781,dorn-biedron-utaplany-w-blocie-nowa-partia-bedzie-musiala.html

-- MARIUSZ JANICKI ON SYMMETRISTS NOT ACCEPTING GRADATIONS OF ISSUES - RESPONDS TO PAWŁOWSKI FROM KULTURA LIBERALNA: “In any case, I recommend everyone read Wojciech Czuchnowski’s latest article from ‘GW’ about Judge Muszyński. The matter is seemingly known, but it is absolutely shocking reading, as it shows what is happening quietly with the Polish state. On a daily basis, we hear about ‘proactive Prime Minister Morawiecki,’ ‘Jaki’s successful folksy campaign,’ ‘Duda stopping PiS’s madness,’ but in reality, a consistent change of system is underway. When no gradation of issues is accepted, when everything is equally important and unimportant, the state of democracy eventually becomes just one of the parameters, like interest rates or the minimum wage. Boredom with the violation of democracy sets in, no one wants to listen to it anymore. And then it's too late. https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1760528,1,do-symetrystow--prosciej-sie-juz-nie-da.read

-- TUSK FALLS BEHIND PAD AND PMM IN ONET'S TRUST RANKING: “Trust in the currently serving president is declared by a total of 43.9% of respondents – these are those who answered that they definitely trust Duda (21.8%) and rather trust him (22.1%). Mateusz Morawiecki ranks second with a result of 41.5%, and Donald Tusk has been pushed to third place. 39.2% of respondents trust Tusk. Interestingly, Donald Tusk was on the podium last month. In July, 40.5% of respondents trusted him.”

-- SCHETYNA BEHIND MACIEREWICZ IN UNPOPULARITY RANKING: “As many as 70.9% of respondents do not trust the former head of the Ministry of National Defence. Grzegorz Schetyna ranks second, with 58.3% not trusting him, and 58.2% do not trust Kaczyński. Respondents are also reserved about Zbigniew Ziobro (57.9% do not trust him) and Beata Szydło (57.8% do not trust her).” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/sondaz-ibris-dla-onetu-ranking-zaufania/2g235c1

-- WE ARE NOT IDEALESS - Natalia Sawka in GW: “Have you visited the camp of activists defending the Białowieża Forest? My friends and peers from the Warsaw Tenants Association provide legal advice to tenants, attend court hearings and eviction blockades in solidarity. They organize picnics, cook meals, attend Manify (women's rights marches) and protest against drastic heating costs in apartments and the terrible condition of buildings. Did you know about them? And have you heard of Kuchnia Konfliktu (Conflict Kitchen)? A place where only immigrants work, serving dishes from their countries of origin? And about Akcja Demokracji (Democracy Action)?”

-- SAWKA ON THE REALITIES OF YOUNG PEOPLE'S LIVES: “Well, we went abroad thanks to budget airlines. We worked in factories, cleaned rooms in hostels, washed dishes in restaurants. Some returned, some stayed. We were forced to leave due to our financial situation, because in Poland we worked for 1500 PLN on sham contracts – yes, we know you despise that word, we hate it too – working overtime for which no one paid us later. Taking holidays, at most for two weeks, if the boss happened to be in a good mood and allowed us a short trip. But we travelled to the Polish mountains, to Mazury or to the Polish seaside without insurance, praying silently not to break a leg, because then we would have to go into debt to pay for treatment.”

-- ANYONE CAN BE A PATRIOT - EVEN A HOODLUM - CONTINUES SAWKA TO WELLMAN: “These groups do not organize themselves in the shadows. They have engagement in their blood. They are visible, the media write about them. You can also meet them. It's worth talking to them. These are not strangers, young people who care about fame and taking selfies for Instagram. These are people worth cooperating with. And even if you are surprised that a hoodlum can be called a patriot, perhaps I would start by meeting that hoodlum. Because anyone can be a patriot, even the one standing by the block.” http://www.wysokieobcasy.pl/wysokie-obcasy/7,100865,23784486,naprawde-nie-jest-nam-wszystko-jedno-w-jakim-kraju-zyjemy-ale.html

-- KATARZYNA WĘŻYK ON GENERATIONAL DIVISIONS - writes in GW: “Instead, I would have a small and timid suggestion: perhaps you could consider, dear cannibals – pardon, old and young – removing the phrases ‘you must’ and ‘you should’ from your manifestos. They really convince few people, but instead cause people to dig in their heels. I would also suggest carefully reading each other, not to find an opportunity to attack the previous speaker in a polemic, but perhaps to try and understand them.”

-- WRITING ABOUT LATTE AND NETFLIX IS WORSE BANALITY THAN "WINTER CAUGHT THE ROAD WORKERS OFF GUARD" - CONTINUES WĘŻYK: “Old people: firstly, you must stop using the words ‘soy latte’ and ‘Netflix.’ A total ban. Latte and Netflix combined with lazy kids is worse banality than ‘winter caught the road workers off guard.’ You only make yourselves ridiculous. If you don’t believe me, ask your child – someone under thirty, younger ones might not have Facebook – to show you the comments of their friends under those texts.”

-- IT'S NOT JUST YOUNG PEOPLE WHO DON'T WANT TO - Dominika Wielowieyska in GW: “So, those who see the failure of education in the Third Polish Republic are right. For the last 30 years, schools have in no way instilled civic engagement in children. We are indifferent and intellectually lazy, both old and young.”

-- YOUNG PEOPLE DON'T CARE ABOUT ANYTHING EXCEPT THEIR OWN AFFAIRS - WIELOWIEYSKA: “Dorota Wellman, and myself as well, are concerned about the masses of young people who do not vote, are interested only in fashion and celebrities on Instagram, or possibly sports and movies online. They don't know what volunteering is, they don't get involved in social initiatives in their local communities. They also don't want to read about public affairs. They limit themselves to titles and headlines online. They are unable to make the intellectual effort to understand anything about the world around them. They don't care about anything except their own affairs.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,23796784,jestesmy-obojetni-i-leniwi-intelektualnie-i-mlodzi-i-starzy.html

-- GENERATIONAL REPROACHES ARE A DULL WEAPON OF POWER - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK from OKO PRESS in GW: “Meanwhile, contemptuous generational reproaches are a trap, and contempt is the worst possible advisor. It is a dull weapon of the current government. Do we want to use it too? I refuse. If the fears of the young are relegated to the drawer labeled ‘Laziness. Whim. Lack of Ideals,’ and the pride of older generations in the achievements of the last 30 or 40 years to the container ‘Your fault. Your very great fault,’ then Poland will either grow old and senile, or it will burn.(...) Older generations, perhaps you could start by inviting young people to your tables – in decision-making bodies, on television? Especially women, because women are particularly active in the 80+ age group. Younger people, perhaps accept these invitations?” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,23796878,pelne-pogardy-pokoleniowe-polajanki-to-pulapka.html

-- THE PRIME MINISTER SUNK ADELAIDE - Paweł Wroński on Piotr Zaremba’s news from PTT:“– Signing the letter of intent was not yet a purchase – commented one of the officials close to the president. – In his opinion, the matter of purchasing frigates is not yet concluded, but it has ‘moved very far away.’ Our interlocutors admit that such a decision by the prime minister would put the president and the minister of defence in a ‘difficult situation’ during their visit to Australia, and the whole affair ‘looks unprofessional.’” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23795451,premier-zatopil-prezydentowi-adelaidy-sprawa-wyglada-niepowaznie.html

-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON CONTEMPT AMONG ELITES ON BOTH SIDES: “There is plenty of such pronouncements from our celebrities, actors, writers, or journalists. One thing radiates from them – contempt. The elites of the Third Polish Republic are becoming similar to those they are fighting against. I once wrote here that the right-wing governing Poland does not like Poles of flesh and blood but dreams of building some new, great and proud nation – for this, it needs to play with memory, rebuild some historical myths and create entirely new ones. The opponents of the current government also despise these specific Poles, they wish they were completely different, that they would stand on the barricades and cast off the chains that Kaczyński wants to impose on them. The only question is whether contempt should become the distinguishing feature of our elites – both those supporting and those opposing the right-wing.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/308169930-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Dorota-Wellmann-czyli-pogarda-laczy.html

-- THEY ENGAGE IN POLITICS INSTEAD OF SCIENCE - GPC ON UNIVERSITIES: “Political and ideological demonstrations, letters, petitions, and other forms of opposition to the government and reforms – this is the daily reality at many Polish universities. The result is that only two Polish universities are ranked among the world’s top 500 universities. And they are not even in the first, second, or third hundred.”

-- JACEK KARNOWSKI ON KRAMEK AND THE OPEN DIALOGUE FOUNDATION: “The ban on entry to Poland and the entire European Union, which the president of the Open Dialogue Foundation has been subjected to, is a precise and minimal action. It is the use of a tool adequate to the situation. Because the situation required concrete action. The Open Dialogue Foundation loves the guise of a non-governmental organization. NGO – how nice it sounds. Helping children, the elderly, supporting animals, innocent training. However, in the case of Ms. Kozłowska’s and her husband Bartosz Kramek’s organization, it is hard not to get the impression that this is just a neatly tailored costume. Because Mr. Kramek’s manifesto, in which he presented a plan to paralyze the Polish state and thus overthrow the government, already showed us clearly that this is a strictly political organization, and moreover, aggressive and ambitious.”

-- KARNOWSKI: THE POLISH GOVERNMENT WILL UNDERGO ELECTORAL VERIFICATION - BUT STRANGE ORGANIZATIONS WILL NOT OVERTHROW IT: “The Open Dialogue Foundation is an enigma: excellent connections in the East and West, unclear goals, and unclear sources of funding. Officially, the organization is (co-)maintained by the president and her husband, who allegedly spend up to PLN 20,000 monthly from business activities. Whoever wants to believe it. All in all, one gets the impression that it is a hybrid that represents not only itself but also much more powerful forces. The Polish government will be subjected to electoral verification. It may win, it may lose. But it must certainly not be allowed to be overthrown, or even to be attempted by, very strange organizations.” https://wpolityce.pl/spoleczenstwo/408265-fundacja-otwarty-dialog-jest-naprawde-arcyciekawa-zagadka

-- BIRTHDAYS: Bartosz Kurek, Łukasz Piłasiewicz, Leszek Talko, Monika Piątkowska, SUNDAY: Maciej Łopiński, Mieczysław Augustyn, Marzanna Zielińska, David Wildstein, Grzegorz Wszołek.


Łukasz Mężyk