state of play: 08/07/2018
-- EXCLUSIVE TO 300 ANALYSES ON EUROPEAN ELECTION ORDINANCE: New expert opinions on the European Parliament election ordinance. Effective electoral threshold from 11.3% to 20.8%, hope threshold – from 8.3% to 16.6% https://300polityka.pl/news/2018/08/07/nowe-ekspertyzy-do-ordynacji-pe-efektywny-prog-wyborczy-od-113-do-208-prog-nadziei-od-83-do-166/ -- THIS IS NOT A SIMPLE MATTER – SIEMONIAK ON THE KO CANDIDATE IN WROCŁAW – 300LIVE:https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/08/07
-- THE CITY IS CRUSHING THE CLUB CAFE PAŃSTWOMIASTO – as reported by Stołeczna: "– Over the following years, the fees kept rising. We applied for another contract extension in January, and only in June did we receive a response that the rate was increasing by almost 5,000 PLN. We can no longer afford this place – explains Jędrzejewski. In total, rent and bills amount to about 20,000 PLN per month. Representatives of the foundation held negotiations at the Śródmieście Real Estate Management Board and with Deputy Mayor Wojciech Matyjasiak. Without any result, they decided to close."
-- PAŃSTWOMIASTO TRANSFORMED ANDERSA STREET – Stołeczna continues: "The Państwomiasto cafe on Muranów will operate only until the end of the week. For six years, it has transformed Andersa Street. This weekend, Muranów will host Anders' Birthday – a street festival initiated five years ago by Państwomiasto, which gradually attracted other establishments. However, this year's edition will be the last with this cafe. At the end of Saturday's event, the neon sign will be ceremoniously turned off for the last time, and Sunday is already reserved only for an equipment sale."
-- ŚPIEWAK INTERVENES ON THE CLUB CAFE ISSUE: The Real Estate Management Board made a scandalous decision regarding the rent increase for the Projekt: Polska foundation, as a result of which Państwomiasto – one of the most important meeting, debate, and cultural animation venues – will cease to function. We invite you to a press briefing with Jan Śpiewak from the Wygra Warszawa coalition, which will take place today (07.08) at 11:30 AM at the Państwomiasto club cafe (Andersa Street 29).
-- JAKI ON PAŃSTWOMIASTO: I don't care whether I agree or disagree with the organization running the place. Warsaw needs places where one can freely discuss. If I become president, #PaństwoMiasto will return to its place. https://twitter.com/PatrykJaki/status/1026753243123277824
-- ANALYSIS OF BOTS FROM UGANDA AND PAKISTAN ALLEGEDLY DISCREDITING JAKI'S CAMPAIGN IN HOUSING ESTATES: https://twitter.com/Polityka_wSieci/status/1026558036142370816
-- JOURNALIST JAN KUNERT ASKS ABOUT THE BOT CAMPAIGN AGAINST JAKI: I've counted eight posts with identical copied content. Do you understand, @konradniklewicz, that this is a complete coincidence? https://twitter.com/Jan_Kunert/status/1026553652071153664
-- SOCIAL SOWA ANALYSIS: The #100imyPodBlokiem campaign across the entire web (social media + portals, blogs, forums combined) with sentiment analysis (positive/negative). So far, @PatrykJaki's campaign team may have reasons to be pleased. https://twitter.com/SocialowaSowa/status/1026518699640061953
-- SEBASTIAN KALETA ON TWITTER: It's symbolic that on the same day @trzaskowski_ hid #ŁawkaRafała (which was one gaffe after another), breaking his promises, on the same day @PatrykJaki energetically launched #100imyPodBlokiem. https://twitter.com/sjkaleta/status/1026514122219970561
-- MARCIN FIJOŁEK QUOTES PROF. DUDEK PRAISING JAKI'S CAMPAIGN: "Jaki's campaign is better, more dynamic, but we must remember the specifics of Warsaw. The liberal electorate dominates here; this is where Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz won elections three times in a row. We do have a loud reprivatization scandal, and Patryk Jaki has it easier because of it, but that doesn't mean it's easy." https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/406875-fijolek-w-sieci-za-kulisami-pre-kampanii
-- MOBILE APPLICATION FOR JAKI'S SUPPORTERS ON ANDROID: "The mobile application with the latest information about the activities of Patryk Jaki – the PiS candidate for Mayor of Warsaw in the autumn local elections – is now available for Android phones. Interestingly, the politician's campaign team is not behind its creation, but his sympathizers." http://m.niezalezna.pl/232632-koniec-ulotek-patryk-jaki-trafil-do-mobilnej-aplikacji-nowe-technologie-w-kampanii-wyborczej
-- ROBERT BIEDROŃ ON THE PRESIDENT WHO RECEIVED 8.5 MILLION VOTES BUT LISTENS TO ONE MP WHO GOT 200,000 – writes in GW: "In none of the matters important to citizens – education, health, old-age security – have we heard the president's voice. In each of these matters, the ruling PiS exposes us to dangers – parents know this well, who after the education 'deform' are picking up children from lessons in basements and corridors – and the president remains silent. He does not mediate, he proposes nothing. The president, who was voted for by over 8.5 million Polish women and men, listens only to the voice of an MP who garnered 200,000 votes, and the voice of a priest who extracted 150 million PLN from the state budget."
-- BIEDROŃ FURTHER ON DUDA: HE SEEMED TO LISTEN, BUT IT WAS A DIRTY GAME: "Andrzej Duda did something during his campaign that is sorely lacking in Polish politics – he engaged in dialogue. He traveled to smaller and larger towns, visiting places that often no politician had seen in 10 or even 20 years. He was present on our modern agora: in social media. He seemed to listen. Today, we know that it was a dirty game." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23760076,prezydent-na-ktorego-glosowalo-ponad-8-5-mln-polek-i-polakow.html
-- 500! THE ISSUE OF KULTURA LIBERALNA, WHICH OFTEN APPEARS IN STAN GRY! As Jarosław Kuisz writes: "And so, from disagreeing with what was happening in the media, when the internet was demolishing the standard of the print press worldwide, we have moved to realizing how important intellectual independence is. What does this autonomy mean? Being intellectually independent means being against any authority, thus being ready for risk. In the long run, however, only this makes sense in the public sphere – and, let's hope, builds our credibility in your eyes. It is simply a different kind of responsibility for public affairs." https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/08/07/kuisz-500-numer-kultury-liberalnej-podziekowania/
-- THE OPPOSITION RESTS ON ITS LAURELS, FORETELLING THE END OF DEMOCRACY – Karolina Wigura in KL: "The opposition in Poland, constantly announcing the 'end of democracy' or prophesying the 'loss of Poland,' is in fact resting on its laurels. The democratic game is ongoing – and victory against Law and Justice can only happen through elections."
-- NOTHING REPLACES GRASSROOTS WORK – WIGURA further: "Lilla, with her book, angered many people in the United States, but she did so for a good cause. She opposed liberals continuing to achieve only moral victories. Polish liberals find themselves in a very similar situation. Neither protests, no matter how well they perform in the media (especially foreign ones), nor strong words about the end of democracy, nor the search for political magic spells will replace the grassroots work mentioned. Organizing small-scale community discussions, as has been done so far, focusing mainly on conformity and satisfying immediate political needs, will not replace it either. The point is to strive to solidify liberalism for years to come." https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/08/07/opozycja-liberalizm-pis-karolina-wigura-moralne-zwyciestwa/
-- ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KULTURA LIBERALNA ON THE HAMMER AS THE ONLY TOOL: "'When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.' A significant portion of the Polish opposition makes the mistake described in this saying. Every action by the authorities is a nail, and comparisons to the PRL are the hammer."
-- PAWŁOWSKI ON THE OPPOSITION: IF THE DIAGNOSIS IS WRONG, THE CONCLUSION WILL ALSO BE WRONG: "All these comparative efforts are the biggest mistake the opposition is making – besides the lack of positive program proposals. We've been writing about this for some time, but the opposition stubbornly ignores these observations – for reasons that deserve a separate explanation. The era of anti-PiS is over, just as the era of scaring people with a return to the PRL is over. One could just as well refer to the French Revolution today and claim that Jarosław Kaczyński resembles Maximilien Robespierre – a striking comparison, but one that will evoke no reaction. Moreover, references to the PRL, searching for parallels in the psychology of Kaczyński and the First Secretaries of the Central Committee of the PZPR, are based on a flawed diagnosis. It is true that one can argue that PiS draws inspiration and sometimes operational methods – such as controlling the media – from the past era. But this does not mean that the Third Polish Republic is turning into the Polish People's Republic. And since the diagnosis is flawed, the prescriptions will also be flawed."
-- NO ONE IS FORBIDDEN TO TALK TO PEOPLE LIKE IN THE 80s, SCHETYNA – PAWŁOWSKI continues: "Unlike the opposition leaders of the 1980s, no one forbids Grzegorz Schetyna from talking to people even daily. Wherever he wants, whenever he wants, and on any topic. So, the problem is not that – as it was in the PRL – the opposition's voice is suppressed, but that the opposition has nothing to say that people would want to hear. (...) In short, the opposition currently needs not a martyr who will become a symbol, but an effective politician who can convince people of his arguments. Including those people who currently support Kaczyński." https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/08/07/opozycja-pis-prl-porownania/
-- BISHOPS ARE CONDEMNED TO PIŚ – Jacek Gądek on Gazeta.pl: "The head of the Episcopate lectures PiS with the words of John Paul II. Bishop Kopiec complains about 'stubborn partisanship.' The Primate warns against being 'dragged' into politics. However, there is no sudden change in the bishops' attitude towards PiS, because they are effectively condemned to PiS."
-- PIŚ IS A GUARANTOR FOR THE CHURCH THAT THERE WILL BE NO LEFT-WING REVOLUTION – GĄDEK continues: "From the perspective of the church hierarchy and the mass of ordinary clergy, this is the end of the world as they know it. The end of PiS's rule carries the risk that Poland will cease to be Poland – not in terms of statehood, but in terms of the values the state upholds. PiS is a guarantor that such a left-wing revolution will not happen. What is the takeover of the Constitutional Tribunal and the demolition of the Supreme Court compared to the prospect of the apocalypse? Merely a reason for admonishment, but not a break, because why invoke the devil of the opposition? This is the bishops' perspective, almost all of them:. http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,161770,23759264,bez-pis-u-polska-nie-bedzie-polska-kosciol-jest-skazany-na.html
-- PAWEŁ RESZKA WRITES THAT FOR POWER, THERE IS NOTHING WORSE THAN AN OVERREACTION TO MOCKERY: "Does a constitution on a t-shirt offend a law professor? One can argue, barely. But a gnome? A calf? What is the paragraph for insulting a mermaid? What? Policemen, obliging prosecutors, judges will find some. But already today, the authorities should be afraid. Because for them, there is nothing worse than an overreaction to mockery." http://m.newsweek.pl/opinie/czy-napis-konstytucja-na-pomnikach-jest-przestepstwem-,artykuly,431163,1.html
-- BY PROSECUTING PEOPLE FOR T-SHIRTS, THE AUTHORITIES EXPOSE THEMSELVES TO RIDICULE – Jagienka Wilczak: "Nothing exposes the indolence of the authorities, their absurdity, and ultimately their weakness and powerlessness in confrontation with civil society as much as this. The authorities fought against happenings and gnomes, engaging their entire, questionable authority in this fight. There is nothing more fatal for a government than exposing itself to ridicule. The current government is doing just that, with gusto. This is an immensely comforting and optimistic circumstance." https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1759054,1,czy-jest-cos-grozniejszego-dla-pis-niz-napis-pzpr-na-murze.read
-- WOJCIECH ORLIŃSKI ON THE MYTH OF LEPPER: "Under Miller, he was Deputy Marshal of the Sejm. Under Kaczyński, he was Deputy Prime Minister. Despite this, he left behind no legacy, no law. He literally left nothing permanent in Polish politics – Tomasiewicz's eulogy lacks concrete examples because there are none. His indirect positive impact was that the sex scandal in Samoobrona made people realize that the defense line 'since he didn't leave his job, it means he agreed to all of this' does not protect molesters. The only good thing Lepper did for society was to finally exit politics in 2007 (although Kukiz took over the baton)." http://wo.blox.pl/2018/08/Kim-byl-Andrzej-Lepper.html
-- PROF. EWA ŁĘTOWSKA THE CJEU DOES NOT SUSPEND THE PRESIDENT, BUT I WOULD SUSPEND – she says to RZ: "The court may have asked the question incorrectly, or improperly, but the Court of Justice of the EU will correct it. However, the prosecutor's office cannot use its powers to exert pressure on a judicial authority. The executive branch will now have a significant problem with the case at the CJEU. Although it does not prevent Mr. President and the National Council of the Judiciary from appointing new judges to the Supreme Court, I would nevertheless suspend it, because they will have to bear the consequences in case of an unfavorable ruling from the CJEU." https://www.rp.pl/Opinie/308069898-Ewa-Letowska-Sady-moga-pytac-unijny-Trybunal-o-swoj-status.html
-- LET'S NOT GET DRAWN INTO A DEBATE ABOUT LEGAL NUANCES – KKZ in GW: "If they give in and get into a legal dispute, they will lose, because that's not what it's about. Let's say it very clearly: this is about a fundamental issue – whether the authorities can question court rulings. They cannot, and if they grant themselves such a right, it will be the end of us. And this is solely and exclusively what this dispute is about. And that's all. It's about whether Poland will remain a democratic state of law, where court rulings are respected, or a state where the authorities will decide which rulings are valid rulings and which are mere whims of the courts. Therefore, let's not get drawn into a debate about legal nuances." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23760096,to-w-republikach-bananowych-lokalny-watazka-decyduje-co-jest.html
-- JAKUB MAJMUREK ON THE WORST PRESIDENCY: "To summarize Andrzej Duda's three years: - On the plus side, a few things: veto on the Regional Audit Offices and the Degradation Act, a nice, amusing, and useful spat with Ziobro over the Supreme Court, and conducting a slightly more nuanced historical policy than Cenckiewicz, and removing Antoni M. from the government.
- On the minus side: participation in PiS's destruction of the Constitutional Tribunal, subservience to PiS on judicial matters, signing the IPN law, signing the Gowin law in its current form, and generally acting as a PiS notary for about 97% of his term. Complete passivity in foreign policy. Plus, I can't stand his way of speaking like a priest at a service, his laughter, sense of humor, and his style as the ideal son-in-law of a PiS school director from Podkarpacie. As you can see, the positives cannot overshadow the negatives.
- Apart from a few vetoes, the president achieved absolutely nothing – all his initiatives – loan sharks, consultative referendum – were blocked by his own party. It's hard to say today what Andrzej Duda's legacy will be.
- As someone said – Lech Wałęsa showed that even a worker can become president, Bronisław Komorowski that anyone can become president, Andrzej Duda that definitely not everyone should.
Undoubtedly, for three-fifths of the term, it is the worst presidency in the Third Polish Republic." https://m.facebook.com/100001052263034/posts/2057772164267839/
-- ZOLL ON THE ILLUSION REGARDING PAD: "When we agreed to the interview, I admit I asked myself the same question, and unfortunately, I couldn't find anything. I see nothing in the president's activity that would deserve appreciation. I had some illusion a year ago when the president used his veto on the judicial acts. Unfortunately, it turned out to be just an illusion. I am sorry, but I cannot answer this question otherwise." https://wiadomo.co/prof-andrzej-zoll-nic-w-dzialalnosci-andrzeja-dudy-nie-zasluguje-na-docenienie/
-- THE PRESIDENT'S WORST YEAR – Jacek Liziniewicz in GPC: "The flawed Supreme Court law, saving the WRON members from degradation, the failure of the consultative referendum idea on the constitution – the third year of the term was definitely the most difficult for Andrzej Duda. Nevertheless, the president maintains high support in polls. – This is a measure of President Andrzej Duda's effectiveness – believes political scientist Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk." https://gpcodziennie.pl/95634-najgorszyrokprezydenta.html
-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON AN UNDECIDED PRESIDENCY – writes in RZ: "The biggest drawback of his presidency is that the head of state cannot decide whether he wants to be an independent political entity or the hetman of the 'good change' camp. This indecisiveness will not change even with a potential veto of the electoral ordinance for the European Parliament. On this particular issue, the interests of PiS and the president are different: PiS wants to have as many seats as possible in the EP at the expense of smaller parties, while Duda knows that to win the presidential elections in 2020, PiS's support will not be enough, because to achieve over 50% of the votes, he needs the support of those smaller parties, whom by signing the new ordinance, he would push into serious political trouble. And although a veto would look like another dispute with the ruling camp, it will not change the balance of this undefined three-year period one bit." https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/308069916-Szuldrzynski-Prezydentura-niezdecydowana.html
-- PIŚ SUES GW – on the front page of Gazeta: "This concerns articles about the connections of the current heads of special services with Jakub R., responsible in the Warsaw City Hall for reprivatization. A lawyer acting on behalf of PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński is also to act regarding articles that 'will be published in the future.' http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23760151,pis-pozywa-wyborcza-za-artykuly-o-warszawskiej-reprywatyzacji.html
-- PAWEŁ WROŃSKI ON SUING GW: "However, our duty, arising from the principle of freedom of speech, is to describe the actions of politicians. We will do so despite lawsuits and attempts to suppress press criticism. This is what freedom of speech is about, which the ruling party cares for as much as the constitutional principle of the rule of law and the separation of powers." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23760136,wiemy-czego-boi-sie-prawo-i-sprawiedliwosc.html
-- KORNEL MORAWIECKI ON MEDIA – tells Jacek Nizinkiewicz in RZ: "Media reform should also take place in Poland. After a series of elections, the media market in Poland should change. Media should serve society, not privileged groups like judges, or foreign capital groups to which they are subordinate. There are no ideals, but media cannot be unreflective. In Poland, most media set society against Russia. Is this good? No, this should change. Let's win the elections first, then we will change the media to be subservient to society."
-- PAD SHOULD VETO THE EP ORDINANCE – Kornel Morawiecki tells RZ: "The President should veto the EP ordinance because it will lead to a two-party Polish representation in the EP. I understand the opposition." https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/308069899-Kornel-Morawiecki-Bedziemy-zmieniac-rynek-medialny.html
-- THE ORDINANCE FORCES OPPOSITION COOPERATION – Marcin Fijołek: "There is another argument that can be heard in the Palace. Again – painfully pragmatic. By passing such an ordinance, the 'good change' camp effectively forces opposition parties to cooperate. Politicians from PSL, SLD, PO, and Nowoczesna will have to grit their teeth and present a joint list; everyone can count and estimate the effects of going to the elections separately. Considering potential ideas to strengthen such an opposition list with prominent names of former prime ministers (Buzek, Marcinkiewicz, Cimoszewicz), as well as the difficult nature of European elections for PiS (poor ground mobilization, structures focused on national elections, electorate with little interest in Brussels affairs), it might turn out that the new electoral law would be a shot in the foot for PiS. Unless, of course, this is truly just a prelude to changes in electoral law for the Polish parliament as well, but Jarosław Kaczyński recently ruled out changes here in an interview with 'Sieci.' https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/406823-weto-pad-ws-ordynacji-ma-za-soba-tez-argumenty-pragmatyczne
-- SOLIDARITY IS PUTTING ON A SHOW OF DISAGREEING WITH THE GOVERNMENT – Leszek Kostrzewski in GW: "The point is that such threats are merely a form of theater performed for the public. They are meant to show Poles that Solidarity has not abandoned workers and remains uncompromising, tough, and that everyone must reckon with it. Meanwhile, the reality is completely different. 'S' has less and less in common with a trade union and more with an appendage of the ruling party." http://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,23760342,nszz-solidarnosc-tylko-udaje-ze-protestuje-przeciwko-rzadowi.html
-- HIGH TAXES AND STRONG TRADE UNIONS SERVE DEMOCRACY – Tomasz Mariewka from the Razem Party on GAZETA.PL: "However, the results of the democracy index do not confirm these fears. In the top five are four European countries: Norway (1st place), Iceland (2nd), Sweden (3rd), and Denmark (5th). All of them apply solutions that would cause dread among our market fundamentalists. For example, the highest personal income tax rate in these countries is (approximately): 48%, 46%, 57%, and 52%. Much higher than in Poland, where the highest bracket is 32%. Additionally, trade unions function very effectively in each of these countries. The level of unionization of employees ranges from about 90% (Iceland) to 50% (Norway). Citizens of these countries also cannot complain about social assistance, and their governments do not hesitate to intervene in the economy when necessary. Do you know how Iceland dealt with the financial crisis? It nationalized its three largest banks. A solution straight out of the nightmares of market fundamentalists, but as we can see, it did not prevent the building of a functioning democracy." http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,161770,23757736,markiewka-gdzie-demokracja-ma-sie-najlepiej-tam-gdzie-podatki.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Jarosław Urbaniak.
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