state of play: 06/14/2018

STATE OF PLAY: Morawiecki Becoming as Capable as Tusk, Zaremba: Decisions Made in an Archaic Manner, Woś: What If PiS Plays Like in 2015? Invents a New '500 Plus'?

Łukasz Mężyk

-- UNUSUALLY, THE SEJM REJECTS THE INFORMATION INITIATED BY PO - 300LIVE:https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/06/14/

-- SECOND DAY OF IMPACT - MINISTERS GRUZA AND CIESZYŃSKI TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILS ON GOV TECH - DISCUSSION AT 2:35 PM.

-- RESTORE MONIKA ŻELAZIK TO WORK! - Damian Duszczenko's appeal in Krytyka Polityczna: “The current authorities, on the one hand, generously support – of course, only families, not necessarily the weakest for whom help is essential – through social transfers, and on the other hand, do not engage in the dispute between employees and employers. To put it in old terms – they are not participating in the good old class struggle. The latest example – the lack of reaction to the dismissal of a ‘modern Anna Walentynowicz’.”

-- WORKING CONDITIONS AT LOT RESEMBLE LOW-COST AIRLINES - Duszczenko writes in KP: “However, trade unions have no other tools. For years, they have been talking about the deteriorating situation of employees. Since Milczarski became CEO, new pilots are only hired on 'gigs' (b2b – pretending the pilot is a company), meaning they are not covered by collective agreements or the labor code: no holidays, sick leave, maternity leave, and no regulations regarding working hours, etc. The working conditions are becoming similar to those in low-cost airlines, but LOT is a state-owned company, and the public sector should set standards.

-- RAFAŁ WOŚ ON THE TRUE FACE OF LABOR RIGHTS - writes in Polityka: “Or another story. ‘I was the operational director in a company producing and selling sushi rolls. Within the first few days of work, I noticed numerous irregularities, and each subsequent day brought new ones. The majority of employees in the company are Ukrainian citizens. Some of them work without contracts and proper food handling documents. They work for over a dozen hours a day, 6–7 days a week. Their contracts are riddled with penalties ranging from PLN 50 to PLN 500. Employees who receive cash payments find it very difficult to collect them, as the office closes at 6 PM, and they finish their work after 10 PM. My contract, unfortunately, only theoretically gave me freedom of action. In practice, I was monitored at every step and had to report what I was doing dozens of times a day. After three weeks of working 15 hours a day, I fell ill.’” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/1752282,1,rynek-pracownika-w-polsce-cos-takiego-nie-istnieje.read

-- MORAWIECKI IS BECOMING AS CAPABLE AS TUSK - GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI ON GAZETA.PL: “Morawiecki is becoming as capable as Tusk. His recent parliamentary speech last Wednesday – aggressive, delivered without notes, peppered with mockery of the opposition – was a demonstration of deadly effectiveness. The opposition and liberal media, who still treat Morawiecki with condescension as a temporary whim of Kaczyński, do not see this. Nor do people within PiS, Morawiecki's rivals for Kaczyński's succession. Because Morawiecki also knows how – when necessary – to display well-rehearsed, feigned clumsiness and confusion.

-- FOR YEARS, AN EQUALLY CRUDE NARRATIVE PREVAILED FROM THE "RATIONAL" CAMP - SROCZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “This is an important component of the Prime Minister's effectiveness. There was no money in the budget for you because someone was stealing it (PiS has been repeating this for two years). Funny? Yes. Crude? Indeed. But for years, an equally crude narrative has prevailed from the 'rational' camp: there is no money in the budget because it goes to 'privileges' and 'social welfare' (meaning you, the poorer, who benefit from benefits, communal housing, etc., are consuming it). For years, pensioners have been told that their benefits are causing a cosmic budget deficit and are essentially a burden on the entire economy. Now they can finally hear that the budget deficit is not their fault, but the fault of 'VAT mafias colluding with PO'. Or – as Morawiecki also repeated – 'international corporations' that don't pay taxes.

-- SROCZYŃSKI ON THE COUNTRY OF INCAPACITY: “A very strong argument, often repeated by PiS (Kaczyński uses it readily). Also to the point. As a journalist myself, I have often felt that Poland is a country of incapacity. That successive institutions are unable to get anything done: from the National Labour Inspectorate, which cannot conduct an inspection and help an employee, to the heritage conservator who cannot punish a developer for burning down a historic building in Otwock, to the Financial Supervision Authority, which cannot penalize banks for fraudulent capital insurance policies sold to pensioners. Such cases of incapacity certainly happen all over the world, but in Poland, there have been alarmingly many of them. Plus, of course, the privatization scandal: all state organs – as they claim – did what was required of them. And the outcome was what it was.”

-- SROCZYŃSKI WARNS AGAINST UNDERESTIMATING WHAT MORAWIECKI SAYS: “We may not like it very much, but the 'average Pole' buys Morawiecki's effective rhetoric. I would warn all opponents of PiS against downplaying these seven PiS truths, which a large portion of voters believe. I would warn against treating them as nonsense or propaganda effects. These are all things that many citizens consider rational because they fit their life experiences. One cannot fight them by mocking or questioning them.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,161770,23532466,sroczynski-superstar-morawiecki-nie-ma-dzis-w-polsce-drugiego.html#Z_MT

-- DON'T BELIEVE IN GRAND REFORM PLANS, PIS IS ALREADY IN PRE-ELECTION MODE - Michał Karnowski:“At least two projects have already fallen victim to 'percentage mode': the animal protection act and the ban on fur farming, and the radio and television subscription act. They have been postponed indefinitely, to the time after the elections. Similarly, repolonization or media deregulation in the previously debated legislative format will not be considered for now. Hence the unequivocal reaction of PiS spokesperson Beata Mazurek to media reports on this matter.

-- THE OPPOSITION WILL REDUCE THE SOCIAL PROGRAM TO SOME KIND OF SOCIAL ACTION - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Both sides are aware that the stakes are high. Another term means the possibility of consolidating changes, while a Platform majority will mean the return of all pathologies of the Third Polish Republic, including the reversal of many achievements, such as 500+. It is worth noting that despite the political risk, PO politicians are sticking to their promise to 'reform' the program. During last week's debate on the opposition's no-confidence motions against Deputy Prime Minister Beata Szydło and Minister Elżbieta Rafalska, PO MP Urszula Augustyn said: 'We will not abolish the 500+ program, we will only make it more just.' Sławomir Nitras clarified on Onet.pl that PO 'will ensure that mothers do not quit their jobs just because they receive money for their child.' In any case, one can speak of an intention to reduce the currently universal pro-family and pro-demographic program to some form of social action.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/399177-wielkie-wyciszenie-michal-karnowski-w-sieci-nie-wierzcie-w-newsy-o-wielkich-planach-reform-pis-jest-juz-w-trybie-przedwyborczym

-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON THE FACT THAT REJECTING DUDAS MOTION IS THE BEST SOLUTION FOR HIM - writes in RZ: “The President withdrawing from the idea is out of the question today, but the Senate's decision to reject his motion may paradoxically relieve Andrzej Duda of a problem. This is the relatively least painful way to avoid the predicament that a referendum could turn out to be.” http://www.rp.pl/Polityka/306139924-Klopotliwa-cisza-po-propozycjach-prezydenta.html

-- PERHAPS THE CONSTITUTION SHOULD PROTECT US FROM EXPORTING MORAL REVOLUTION THROUGH PRECEDENTS - Michał Karnowski: “But the very idea of asking Poles about some aspect of relations with the European Union is sound. Perhaps the constitution should contain a clear and direct indication of the primacy of Polish law over European law? Perhaps it should protect us to the greatest extent possible from the export of moral revolution through precedents? The President's bold initiative regarding the constitution – and the referendum itself – is an opportunity to strengthen our Polish foundations, both state and social, in a rapidly changing, and again increasingly dangerous world. This is the direction the questions should take (and a significant part do!), having value not only as important guidelines for parliament but also as a kind of 'super poll’.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/399270-najciekawszym-i-zarazem-najbardziej-ryzykownym-z-prezydenckich-pytan-jest-to-dotyczace-wpisania-czlonkostwa-w-unii-europejskiej-do-konstytucji

-- RAFAŁ WOŚ ON THE FACT THAT PIS MAY SURPRISE AGAIN BY HITTING THE SOCIAL EXPECTATION BULLSEYE - writes on Gazeta.pl: “On the surface, such a scenario for the coming months (years?) sounds rational. However, it is based on the assumption that PiS will not detonate another political atomic bomb that will completely change the rules of the game. And it's not about even harsher propaganda or tampering with the electoral law. The opposition is prepared for that. To some extent, they are even counting on it (it will then confirm the validity of the slogan 'Kaczor the dictator'). But what if PiS plays like in 2015? Invents some kind of 'new 500 plus'? And hits the bullseye of social expectations with it? And the opposition will once again be left with a mixture of disbelief and fury on their faces: 'You can do that?!' 'Why didn't we think of that?'

-- RAFAŁ WOŚ ON UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME, E.G., 1000+: “This is no longer a niche idea or a political curiosity. In the world of UBI, things have been moving very fast lately. Two years ago, there were only tests in a few places worldwide (Alaska, Finland, Canada). A year ago, even the World Bank conducted simulations that showed that introducing UBI at 25% of median earnings would not collapse the budgets of Western countries. Six months ago, Italy's Five Star Movement included citizen's income (at EUR 780) in its election program. Today, the Five Star Movement co-forms the government in Rome. What will happen tomorrow? Perhaps 1000+ in Poland. Why not?” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,161770,23528610,wos-dzis-sto-milionow-walesy-juz-nie-brzmi-dziwacznie-pis.html#Z_MT

-- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON WARSAW BEING CONSIDERED AS A MEETING PLACE FOR TRUMP AND KIM: “If Trump and Kim had met in Poland, it would have been such a huge success for PiS that it would have overshadowed the problems in relations with the European Union and the USA. The Americans were supposed to discuss this with the Polish ambassador in Washington, but they ultimately abandoned Warsaw. According to Onet sources, there were two reasons. Firstly – the indiscretion of the Polish authorities, who started suggesting in the media that Poland had a chance to host the summit. Secondly – the still unresolved general issue in relations with the USA, namely the IPN law.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/szczyt-trump-kim-mogl-sie-odbyc-w-warszawie/10twr8k

-- EWA SIEDLECKA CRITICIZES MAŁGORZATA GERSDORF: “One can understand that Ms. President Gersdorf doesn't believe. Not everyone is a person of great faith. But she doesn't necessarily have to share her disbelief with the public. Including with people who believe and fight to the end. When asked for a comment, she could have simply thanked them.” https://siedlecka.blog.polityka.pl/2018/06/13/pani-prezes-wystarczylo-podziekowac/

-- GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI ON THE UNSTABLE KUCHCIŃSKI: “A machine gun in the hands of a strong and stable person is less dangerous than a regular hammer in the hands of someone consumed by insecurity and complexes. If Kuchciński gets his hands on this hammer against MPs – meaning the ability to punish their behavior 'outside the parliamentary chamber' – we can expect a dangerous escalation of political conflict at the next opportunity. Something small will happen, Kuchciński won't hold back, he'll use the hammer, and we'll have another brawl that, this time, might get out of control for both sides.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,161770,23535857,sroczynski-nie-dawajcie-kuchcinskiemu-mlotka-bo-w-nerwach.html#MT2

-- PIOTR ZAREMBA ON DECISIONS MADE IN AN ARCHAIC MANNER - writes in DGP: “From this perspective, Kaczyński's vision of leading us out of the Union and pushing us into Russia's embrace is liberal opposition propaganda. And yet, the example of the IPN law showed that decisions made in an archaic manner, in the office of one person, can be treacherous. The PiS leader left the attempt to extricate himself from troubles with the Union to Prime Minister Morawiecki. It was from the Prime Minister's office that the impulse to tamper with judicial laws emerged. But the tools proved insufficient. Is this a great danger? Certainly a significant problem. Especially if we accept, and I do, that Kaczyński does not want a total undermining of the current international order, that he sees more advantages than disadvantages in it. Perhaps it is, therefore, an opportunity for fundamental reflection on the nature of the PiS revolution?”

-- PIOTR ZAREMBA ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE CLASH WITH THE UNION: “We are heading towards a turning point. Perhaps for the better, because as reported from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, fruitless debates about the rule of law have consumed an excessive amount of Polish diplomacy's energy and hindered close relations within the Union. However, it will be even worse if Poland receives a reprimand. – We are not facing complete isolation, but certainly fundamental difficulty in reaching agreements with various countries – predicts a Polish diplomat.” http://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1136794,zaremba-ku-przesileniu-w-relacjach-z-ue.html

-- WE WILL BE AS INSufferABLE AS ORBAN - Grzegorz Osiecki and Magdalena Cedro in DGP: “The dispute between Poland and Brussels is escalating. As DGP has learned, PiS plans to block important decisions to force concessions from the Commission. The European Commission wants to go further regarding Article 7, but Warsaw is not staying silent. – We will be a bit like Orbán, insufferable – one person familiar with the behind-the-scenes of the talks tells us. This concerns, among other things, negotiations on the EU budget and the reform of migration policy. Poland's 'no' is intended to soften Brussels and prepare the ground for further talks after the summer break.” http://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/576193,panowie-zadnych-marzen-o-kompromisie.html

-- TOMASZ BIELECKI ON THE FACT THAT 15 OUT OF 28 EU COUNTRIES DECIDED ON POLAND'S HEARING: “Filing a complaint with the Court of Justice of the EU in Luxembourg before July 3 would require an unprecedented shortening of infringement procedures in the European Commission. Some legal services within EU institutions are still convinced that the Supreme Court issue should be resolved solely within the framework of Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union proceedings. And the Council of the EU General Affairs will address Poland again at its meeting on June 26. EU ambassadors (by a majority of 15 out of 28 EU countries) decided on Wednesday evening that this will be the first part of the formal hearing of Poland regarding the rule of law (i.e., the next step within Article 7), which the European Commission requested last week. The topic of the meeting of EU ministers on June 26 will be – as an EU diplomat explains to us – 'the most urgent issues indicated by the Commission,' which will certainly include, among others, the Supreme Court. However, these actions amount to political pressure which – contrary to the appeals of PiS critics in Poland and the rest of the EU – cannot stop the changes in the Supreme Court.”

– WHAT IF POLAND DOES NOT OBEY THE COURT - TOMASZ BIELECKI CONTINUES: “The problem is that it is unknown whether the Court of Justice could stop the changes in the Polish Supreme Court. And what if Poland does not obey? It will be a huge crisis – says one of the EU diplomats. In autumn 2017, Warsaw only submitted to an interim ban on logging in Białowieża under threat of huge fines and with delays, as part of a 'provisional measure' later confirmed by a court ruling. And Białowieża was not a constitutional issue as sensitive for the Polish authorities as the Supreme Court.” http://amp.dw.com/pl/europarlament-o-zagro%C5%BConym-s%C4%85dzie-najwy%C5%BCszym-w-polsce/a-44211346

-- ANNA SŁOJEWSKA IN RZ PRAISES KRASNODĘBSKI'S CALM AND LOGICAL STATEMENT: “On behalf of the Polish government, Zdzisław Krasnodębski, Vice-Chairman of the European Parliament, defended its position. In a calm and logical statement, he pointed out the EC's use of double standards, referring to an interview given by Günter Verheugen, former German Commissioner for Enlargement, who calls for de-escalation. The PiS MEP also pointed out that the Commission and its allies only think they are acting on behalf of Polish citizens. – Polls show that the majority of Poles support judicial reform – he indicated.” http://www.rp.pl/Unia-Europejska/306139929-Komisja-Europejska-kontra-Polska.html

-- EVEN THE SUPREME COURT JUDGES THEMSELVES DON'T BELIEVE THE REFORM WILL BE STOPPED - Tomasz Pietryga in RZ: “But will that stop PiS? Even the Supreme Court judges themselves probably don't believe it. A dozen or so of them have asked the president to extend their term of office in accordance with the rigor of the new law. Everything indicates, therefore, that the political dispute over the rule of law in Poland will last much longer.” http://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1376327-Timmermans-w-drodze-do-Luksemburga.html

-- JOANNA LICHOCKA ON THE 'LACKEY' PHILOSOPHY ADOPTED BY THE OPPOSITION - writes in GPC: “Tusk perfected it; a lack of interest in Poland's affairs in international economic relations accompanied it. Our western neighbor most often benefited from this. Clearly, PO politicians cannot break free from this operating philosophy – detrimental to the country, although beneficial for their individual careers, as Donald Tusk's path shows. The PO's protest against the construction of the Central Communication Port, because there are German airports, is incomprehensible unless one remembers this lackey philosophy, which has defined the way these politicians function for years. They polish the master's door handles – they don't reach any higher.” https://gpcodziennie.pl/91709-panskieklamkinablysk.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Katarzyna Ramotowska, Dymitr Hirsch, Olga Wasilewska.


Łukasz Mężyk