state of play: 05/07/2018

STATE OF PLAY: Zaremba on Young Candidates: Poland Will Be More PiS, But a Different Kind of PiS; Wielowieyska: Jaki Could Be a Very Dangerous Competitor for Trzaskowski

Łukasz Mężyk

-- JAKI SHOWS THE DIFFERENCE WITH TRZASKOWSKI: NEW BRIDGES OR PEDESTRIAN-BICYCLE CROSSINGS, SZEFERNAKER ON BRONISŁAW KOMOROWSKI'S LOCAL GOVERNMENT DEALINGS, TRZASKOWSKI ON HGW AND THE REPRYVATIZATION BLUNDER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/05/07/

-- PIOTR ZAREMBA ON THE PIS CAMPAIGN CONCEPT - OPPOSING YOUNG CANDIDATES FROM OUTSIDE THE SYSTEM TO OLD AUTHORITIES: "But there is another dimension to this story. Kaczyński bet on Jaki, the 'sheriff,' because that is the campaign concept. Opposing young candidates, usually from outside the established circles, to the old city authorities. Those who often have management experience but have become entangled with local cliques and connections. Naturally, this hasn't been constructed everywhere in the same way; for instance, in Poznań, where a popular PO mayor was opposed by a local celebrity publisher, Tadeusz Zysk, who can hardly be called young, in a particularly difficult terrain. This construction doesn't guarantee success everywhere either. Young Kacper Płażyński in Gdańsk certainly represents greater credibility against the long-serving mayor Paweł Adamowicz, who has amassed a large fortune, but it seems that the residents of Gdańsk have no intention of changing their preferences."

-- ZAREMBA WRITES THAT JAKI'S EFFORTS TO HIGHLIGHT PROGRAMMATIC DIFFERENCES FROM PIS ARE WORTH NOTICING: "He will present the capital as a paradise for developers and speculators, to be reclaimed by ordinary Varsovians, which will be facilitated by the instinctive arrogance of the PO candidate. But also, in his fight to win over the 'lemmings,' Jaki is already demonstrating his programmatic divergence from PiS on various issues, such as in vitro fertilization. This is being done artificially, by force, especially since Solidarna Polska has appeared even more conservative than Kaczyński's party. But these efforts are worth noting."

-- POLAND WILL BE MORE PIS, BUT A DIFFERENT KIND OF PIS - ZAREMBA CONCLUDES: "Of course, it's possible that after the campaign, nothing will remain of these gestures, and it will be dominated by grimaces and poses. But perhaps Polish politics will become a little different after these elections. Let's repeat: Poland will emerge from them more PiS-like, but a different kind of PiS-like." http://www.polskatimes.pl/opinie/felietony/a/polska-po-tych-wyborach-bedzie-bardziej-pisowska-ale-pisowska-inaczej,13146958/

-- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON HOW THE CAMPAIGN WILL BUILD JAKI: "I will go further and add that the campaign itself will clearly contribute to a certain dynamic that is not fully controlled, unlike the daily, arduous politics. Patryk Jaki, whether he likes it or not, will become the number one figure on the right-wing political map. A bit like Andrzej Duda in the spring of 2015 (with all proportions considered). With all its pros and cons."

-- FIJOŁEK ON ZAREMBA'S TEXT - POTENTIAL CORRECTIONS, PERHAPS EVEN SMALL RESETS: "And indeed, it looks like there will be at least potential course corrections, and perhaps even small resets in the 'good change' camp. In the autumn, PiS will be able to appoint several regional marshals, and these are truly significant positions in the world of real, local government politics. It is not by chance that small networks of connections and dependencies form around such individuals, often crossing the 'central' stance. Anyone who has even brushed against the specifics of how local governments function in our country knows this. And the financial resources to be distributed will not be insignificant." https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/393106-korekta-kursu-a-moze-nawet-maly-reset-co-zmieni-w-obozie-dobrej-zmiany-kampania-i-wynik-wyborow-samorzadowych

-- DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA WRITES THAT FOR CELINSKI'S CANDIDACY, JAKI WILL KISS CZARZASTY'S HANDS: "Patryk Jaki has a good chance of enchanting the post-communists with his Jacobin style, revealed during the privatization investigative committee. Only the SLD can block Jaki, but Włodzimierz Czarzasty would have to nominate someone who perfectly fits the expectations of the SLD's core electorate. Andrzej Celiński is not such a person. The electorate does not identify with him because he is a former Solidarity opposition activist, associated with the Democratic Union. Putting forward Celiński will bring great joy to PiS and make their poaching in the SLD's garden more effective. Celiński will also take votes away from Trzaskowski, and for that, Jaki will kiss Czarzasty's hands.

-- WIELOWIEYSKA WRITES ABOUT JARUZELSKA'S CHANCES: "Such a person could be Monika Jaruzelska, who has moderate views and a historical name. Feminist circles wouldn't complain either – after all, a woman is becoming the left's candidate. If Celiński runs and the Razem party and urban movements have an ineffective campaign, Jaki's chances will significantly increase."

-- IN WIELOWIEYSKA'S OPINION, JAKI CAN BE A VERY DANGEROUS COMPETITOR: "Today, polls don't tell us much because Varsovians don't yet know who they will have to choose from. Warsaw is a blank slate that the candidates will fill during the campaign – but if Jaki maintains his pace and doesn't make glaring mistakes, he could be a very dangerous competitor for Trzaskowski." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23363476,pis-lowi-wyborcow-w-ogrodku-sld-ta-nieznosna-polityka.html

-- PARKING LOTS ARE JAKI'S STRONGEST BLOW - Jarosław Ossowski in Gazeta Stołeczna: "Patryk Jaki's most accurate blow against the capital's Platforma-led authorities so far was his press conference on Teatralny Square. He pointed out their unfulfilled parking promises. Underground garages were supposed to be built in several places in Warsaw, but the city hall has been stringing residents along for years with discussions with private investors. Patryk Jaki signed a commitment, 'New Parking Lots for Warsaw,' whatever that might mean. The Platform has long swept the city's parking problems under the rug, dousing it with warm water from their own tap."

-- OSSOWSKI ON HOW THE OKĘCIE ISSUE HITS JAKI: "On the other hand, concerning airports, PiS is spewing boiling water, which threatens third-degree burns not only to Warsaw but to the entire country. That's why I would like to see Patryk Jaki at Okęcie as well and hear him say this time: 'Ladies and gentlemen, I would now like to solemnly sign my firm commitment that if I become the mayor of Warsaw, I will not allow Chopin Airport to be closed.' http://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,23362926,w-sprawie-lotnisk-pis-chlusta-wrzatkiem-co-grozi-oparzeniami.html

-- PIOTR ZAREMBA BELIEVES THE REJECTION OF THE REFERENDUM IS A MYTH - writes in DGP: "Let's dispel the biggest myth right away: that the president's initiative will be rejected. – Jarosław Kaczyński is skeptical; he hoped the president would withdraw the idea within a year. But if he submits it, well... As long as he agrees with us on the questions, we will allow this vote with a heavy heart – says an influential parliamentarian from the government majority. Why? The liberal opposition is attacking the president as someone who violated the constitution, so he has no moral right to ask about it. Voting with the opposition against the motion would be an indirect admission of their point. And yet, if we assume that the replacement of three Constitutional Tribunal judges or the reform of the courts genuinely violated the basic law, PiS is a co-author of everything that has happened. On top of that, the cold, politically correct relations between the parliamentary majority and the president have been a dogma since last winter."

-- ZAREMBA WONDERS IF THE PRESIDENT WOULD AGREE TO MAKE THE REFERENDUM A POLITICAL CHRISTMAS TREE: "Indeed, when the president put forward his idea, suggestions were circulating in the entourage of the PiS leader to save the idea. For example, by including popular points from the PiS program in the questions. It was then that Senate Marshal Stanisław Karczewski, who is currently demonstrating skepticism towards the referendum, mentioned including 500+ in the constitution. Wouldn't voters rush to the polls to solidify it? Or to defend the principle of not admitting immigrants. This is how Viktor Orbán uses his constitution. This could be a plebiscite with a chance of winning. An opportunity for a new political opening. But would the president himself agree to turn the constitution into a political Christmas tree? And even in such a case, there would be no hundred percent guarantee of satisfactory turnout. And an accidental loss on the issue of 500+ or immigrants would be a catastrophe."

-- PERHAPS IT WOULD BE BETTER IF THE SENATE REJECTED PAD'S PROPOSAL WITH UNANIMOUS VOTES - ZAREMBA: "For PiS, the dream scenario would be for the president to back down, say, to the idea of non-binding consultations without sending Poles to the polls – Orbán also uses this. The president believes in the value of civic education lessons. Perhaps it would be better for him if the Senate rejected his proposal with everyone's votes. He could say: the parties didn't let me talk to Poles. But this is another reason for PiS to allow the referendum. It's possible we'll go to the polls on November 10th and 11th. In addition to those who won't go." http://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1121654,zaremba-pis-zwiazany-pytaniem-prezydenta.html

-- THE CONSTITUTION IS NOT THE BIBLE - Joanna Lichocka in GPC: "The president likely also aims to consolidate executive power in one center, but by strengthening the president's powers, perhaps even, though he doesn't say it aloud, in the American style. Hence the referendum idea – a president elected in a general election is flirting with Poles: decide if I should have more power. The discussion is thus beginning, and it is certainly positive that, contrary to the shouts of the post-communist establishment, Poles know that the current constitution is not the Bible and it can and should be replaced with a new one." https://gpcodziennie.pl/88873-konstytucjadowymiany.html

-- FALENTA TRIED TO GET A PARDON - writes Wojciech Czuchnowski in GW: "The businessman did not answer our question about whether he would report to prison. In a statement to 'Wyborcza,' he said: 'I am an innocent victim of the PO government and judges who convicted me thoughtlessly and in violation of the law. My only goal was to pursue the truth, and now I am paying for my disinterested patriotism and sacrifice for the country. History will judge me fairly.' His lawyer, Marek Małecki, is more reserved: 'We are still fighting for an acquittal. We are filing a cassation appeal, which also includes a motion to suspend the execution of the sentence until the Supreme Court convenes.'" http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23363058,falenta-idzie-do-wiezienia-czlowiek-od-afery-podsluchowej-liczyl.html

-- POLAND ON CRUTCHES LIKE KACZYŃSKI - Jacek Żakowski in GW: "After three years of 'good change' rule, the dreams and illusions of the President and his subordinates are gradually being verified. The consequences are visible. They include successes (e.g., 500+) and catastrophes (e.g., IPN). If Poland is to move forward again, the opposition must take the first ones to heart, and the government must take the second ones. Without this, even the best crutches won't help. Along with them, we will get stuck in the gateway to a good future." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23362499,polska-o-kulach-prezes-wiedzial-lepiej.html

-- FAKT - ANOTHER DAY ON THE FRONT PAGE ABOUT KACZYŃSKI IN HOSPITAL.

-- THE PRESIDENT'S GREAT PAIN - Kaczyński also on crutches on the SE cover. https://www.egazety.pl/murator/e-wydanie-super-express.html

-- 40% EXPECT FURTHER PIS GOVERNMENTS - Krzysztof Pacewicz analyzes the IPSOS poll for Oko: "As many as 39% of Poles expect PiS to continue governing alone, 27% see Kaczyński in a coalition, and only 26% hope that PiS will completely lose power. Poles are incorrigible optimists in this regard: most expect the 2019 election results to be favorable to their favorites. Someone will have to be disappointed." https://oko.press/wybory-2019-zwolennicy-pis-sadza-ze-pis-utrzyma-wladze-opozycja-ze-ja-straci-a-kukizowcy-ze-bedzie-rzadzilo-w-koalicji-sondaz/

-- PIOTR SKWIECIŃSKI ON THE GROUND FOR ZAPATERISM: "This presents an interesting picture of Polish anti-clericalism, fundamentally consistent with the intuitions many had back in the 1990s. The picture of Polish anti-clericalism, though growing in strength (and this is a novelty), is dominated not by intellectuals arguing with God from universities, nor even by 'lemmings' aspiring to secular elites, but, to put it briefly, by the darkest layers of society. Or more precisely – by that part of its darkest layers that resides in metropolises – i.e., centers where the influence of traditional authorities and the social control they exert effectively does not exist. And traditional life patterns are relatively the weakest." https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/393117-czy-jest-podglebie-dla-polskiego-zapateryzmu-moze-jest-ale-raczej-nieoczekiwane

-- THE STATE GIVES ONLY WORDS TO THOSE WHO SAVE JEWS - Michał Potocki on the front page of DGP: "– We wrote letters to various ministries. We received replies stating that we are the pride of Poland, but supporting our activities is not possible – says Anna Stupnicka-Bando, president of PTS. – In the spring of 2017, in an act of desperation, we appealed to the Ministry of Interior and Administration for co-financing of statutory activities. We received no response for five months – she adds." http://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/wydarzenia/artykuly/573861,polakom-ratujacym-zydow-panstwo-daje-tylko-slowa.html

-- GW FRONT PAGE ON THE RETURN OF THE CZARTORYSKI PALACE - Krystyna Naszkowska: "The Ministry of Agriculture has determined that the Czartoryski family palace in Sieniawa was expropriated by the State Treasury unlawfully. Will it be returned? And what about the 130 million PLN that the state spent on its renovation?" http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23363065,resort-rolnictwa-idzie-na-reke-ksieciu-czartoryskiemu-dal-mu.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Monika Antkiewicz.


Łukasz Mężyk