state of play: 04/23/2018

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Fijołek on Biedroń Seeking an Opportunity, Stankiewicz on Celiński's Candidacy, Semka: Kaczyński Realized PiS's Language Became Too Vague, The Press on ABW's Swift Reaction

Łukasz Mężyk

-- REPORT FROM DONALD TUSK'S TESTIMONY IN COURT: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/04/23/

-- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ WRITES THAT MONIKA JARUZELSKA REFUSED AND ANDRZEJ CELIŃSKI WILL BE THE SLD CANDIDATE IN WARSAW: "Celiński's candidacy is to be officially presented at the beginning of May. Former MP Małgorzata Szmajdzińska and former Deputy Minister of Interior and Administration Katarzyna Piekarska were also in the running. Monika Jaruzelska did not want to run. Warsaw politicians from SLD and PO agree that Celiński will take votes away from the Platform's candidate Rafał Trzaskowski. This increases PiS's chances." https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/byly-minister-kandydatem-sld-w-warszawie/ggt4rq7

-- MARCIN FIJOŁEK WRITES THAT BIEDROŃ FEELS THE WEAKNESS OF CARDBOARD LEADERS AND SKILLFULLY UTILIZES THE OPPOSITION ELECTORATE'S EXPECTATION: "The most audible movements and actions are being prepared from the left side of the political scene. On the opposition side, people are essentially just waiting for information about when Robert Biedroń will announce his new political movement. The Mayor of Słupsk is consistently building his position with noteworthy persistence, carrying out a media campaign. A campaign that consists of permanently questioning the opposition's leadership. Grzegorz Schetyna is mocked time and again, Katarzyna Lubnauer senses which way the wind is blowing and, just in case, proposes a bill on civil partnerships, then there's the absent and lethargic Razem, and finally, the somewhat inflated Democratic Left Alliance. It's no wonder that Biedroń brazenly claims to be the true leader of the opposition today. He senses the weakness of the cardboard leaders, sees that it's easy to generate media interest in his activities, and skillfully utilizes the anticipation of a large part of the opposition electorate."

-- FIJOŁEK'S ARTICLE TITLE: Something is knocking from the right, something is rumbling from the left. The 2019 and 2020 elections might be the beginning of a small reset of the political scene.

-- FIJOŁEK ON THE CHALLENGE FOR THE RULING PARTY FROM THE RIGHT: "To what extent is this a real threat to today's rulers, and to what extent are these ordinary and unavoidable moves whose fuel runs out after two or three weeks? It is difficult to determine this unequivocally today, and even more difficult to identify potential beneficiaries of such changes (Nationalists? Kukiz'15? Wolność? New parties?), but – as Adam Hofman recently said – one can indeed feel that something new is coming." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/391243-cos-stuka-z-prawej-strony-cos-lomoce-z-lewej-wybory-w-roku-2019-i-2020-moga-byc-poczatkiem-malego-resetu-sceny-politycznej

-- KRZYSZTOF WOŁODŹKO ON THE CIVIC PLATFORM ELECTORATE FLEEING TO THE DEMOCRATIC LEFT ALLIANCE - writes in GPC: "I watch with amusement as the Civic Platform electorate flees towards the Democratic Left Alliance in the polls. It's somewhat reminiscent of struggling in a political cage and confirms strong, often accurate, diagnoses concerning so-called PO-lszewism. It's no longer the Committee for the Defence of Plutocracy, nor Grzegorz Schetyna or Ryszard Petru who give them hope. It's Włodzimierz Czarzasty who benefits from the opposition's troubles. There's something symptomatic about this. Meanwhile, the CBA, an institution hated by the transformational elites, is cutting down everything equally. It all connects into a logical whole." https://gpcodziennie.pl/87795-szamotaninapo-lszewizmu.html

-- HE DIDN'T DEGRADE JARUZELSKI, HE DEGRADED HIMSELF - Piotr Lisiewicz in GPC on the President: "Duda, on the other hand, is blocking changes when we can sweep away post-communism forever. And instead of standing at the forefront of these changes and becoming the natural leader of the independence camp for decades, he degrades himself to the role of one of the puppets of the post-colonial Third Polish Republic. By not degrading Jaruzelski, he degraded himself." https://gpcodziennie.pl/87798-degradacjadudy.html

-- JACEK KARNOWSKI WRITES THAT THE RIGHT SHOWS IT CAN STILL BITE POLITICAL GRASS: “1. Jarosław Kaczyński's radical decision to end the bonus issue and launch a political offensive. 2. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's very good, credible performance at the united right's convention and an interesting economic and social project in the form of "The Five." 3. The opposition's proposals, very weak in comparison, unbelievable, and internally contradictory. Grzegorz Schetyna, unable to answer a simple question about a few successes of the PO-PSL governments, is a symbol here. Although this act of honesty is also worth appreciating. 4. Skillful handling of crises like the protest of parents of disabled children in the Sejm (this matter looks strangely like a politically motivated copy of a protest from 4 years ago, but that's for another commentary). 5. A decisive commitment of the entire formation to direct communication with Poles.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/391282-prawica-pokazuje-ze-umie-jeszcze-gryzc-polityczna-trawe-mozna-juz-chyba-mowic-o-odwroceniu-trendu

-- PIOTR SEMKA IN HIS ANALYSIS IN DO RZECZY QUOTES 300POLITYKA: "He is just ending the dispute with Brussels and is striving – seemingly with the help of the USA – to ease the conflict with Israel. Even the sharpest analysts notice this. Łukasz Mężyk on the 300polityka portal writes: 'Whether it will arouse the admiration of the more radical right or not, the PiS chairman has shown that he believes more in the political significance and pragmatism of the EU mission and Morawiecki's economic plan than in the path of the most radical elements of his camp. The chairman's words after the presidential veto were also quite significant, when he surprisingly tersely and without any emotion stated: "We consider this matter closed at this moment." Everything indicates that Kaczyński has recognized that nurturing economic success and social peace (dampening discussions around demands for more decisive protection of life, a pause for the degradation act) is the political foundation of an electoral strategy based on greater moderation.'"

-- IN SEMKA'S OPINION, KACZYŃSKI REALIZED THAT THE LANGUAGE OF PiS BECAME TOO VAGUE: "It is not out of the question that Kaczyński's realization that the language of PiS has become too vague was aided by observing the campaign in Hungary. Orbán knows how to soften disputes with Brussels, but he never hesitates to cross swords with Soros."

-- JAN ROKITA ON THE COOLING OF THE POLITICAL CLIMATE - writes in wSieci: "Meanwhile, in Poland, the social situation of PiS is the exact opposite today. The emotional conflicts of the last two years are just dying down, compromises are emerging on most fronts, and the most fierce fighters (the Macierewicz case) are – as the opposition maliciously, though not without reason, says – being "phased out." The battle for the courts and tribunals is over, Timmermans is tenderly embracing Morawiecki, Kursk's television is to be more prudent and moderate, and even the fight for the Smolensk truth has somehow got lost in fog and obscurity. (...) Of course, it is of immeasurable importance that a certain cooling of the political climate and a calming of collective moods can serve to improve the quality of state policy. But it is unlikely to lead PiS to any significant electoral triumph in the autumn." https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/391253-z-sejmu-do-aresztu-nowy-numer-sieci-ujawnia-kulisy-afery-ze-stanislawem-gawlowskim-sprawdz-szczegoly

-- "THEY ARE DOING THIS TO DIVERT ATTENTION FROM THEIR PROBLEMS" - JANUSZ PALIKOT in conversation with Renata Grochal in Newsweek: "Now everyone knows that they are doing this to divert attention from their problems, not to solve people's problems. When they said, in contrast to PO and Komorowski: we will give you 500+, people believed them because they wanted change. And PiS showed effectiveness – they promised, they did it, it works. They should have maintained that role. But when they saw that their poll numbers grew even more after the elections, they started demanding compensation from the Germans, conflicts with Brussels, attacks in various directions. This causes a growing sense of destabilization in people. People want change, but they don't want to feel embarrassed that everything around is falling apart."

-- PIŚ COULD RULE FOR 20 YEARS - SAYS PALIKOT: "Kaczyński, by combining a social state with moderate conservatism, could rule Poland for 20 years. But he's overdoing it with bonuses, arresting Gawłowski, abusing power. And because of this arrogance, regulating when a woman can be pregnant and when not, with whom she should sleep and how, he will lose this power."

-- PALIKOT ADVISES NOWACKA AND BIEDROŃ TO JOIN PO: "The most frustrating thing is that you build a party for 10 percent and you can't do anything. You go mad, and everyone in the party does too. That's why I advise Biedroń and Nowacka: join PO." http://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/palikot-do-polityki-nie-wracam-wywiad-z-renata-grochal-,artykuly,426312,1.html?src=HP_Section_2

-- ABW AND POLICE HUNT NAZIS - Jacek Harłukowicz on GW's front page: "ABW and the police broke up a neo-Nazi party in Dzierżoniów on Saturday. Charges of promoting fascism and inciting hatred on national and racial grounds will be brought against two leaders of this environment – Krzysztof S. and Piotr G. – on Monday." http://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,23305685,jak-slowik-i-dziki-po-cichu-zorganizowali-neonazistowski.html

-- THE GOVERNMENT ESTIMATES THE PROTESTERS' EXPECTATIONS AT APPROXIMATELY 6 BILLION PLN - Bartek Godusławski, Grzegorz Osiecki in DGP: "The Ministry of Finance is considering the extent to which the demands of caregivers for disabled people can be met. Work is underway on amending the law on social pensions. According to the government, meeting the most important demands of the protesters would cost over PLN 6 billion. Such a budget effort is out of the question."

-- AND THERE WERE SUPPOSED TO BE NO NEW TAXES - headline in Fakt.

-- SUDDENLY YOU CARE ABOUT THE DISABLED? - Fakt.

-- MR. MARSHAL, CONVENE A SESSION - Fakt.

-- WHEN THE GOVERNMENT MAKES IMAGE MISTAKES, IT MOVES FORWARD BY DISTRIBUTING GIFTS - Dominika Wielowieyska in GW: "When PiS makes image mistakes, it moves forward by distributing social gifts. One cannot deny the ruling party cunning. During the last convention, as a way to distract from bonuses, Prime Minister Morawiecki threw out a few slogans that sound good but concern relatively small groups of citizens and are therefore not dramatically costly. However, the more scandals and errors there are, the more such gifts will have to be offered. Moreover, there are local government elections this year, European elections next year, and then parliamentary elections. And before each of them, people must be offered something attractive. How much money will be needed to buy electoral sausages? And by how much will taxes have to be raised?"

-- IF THE GOVERNMENT DIDN'T SPONSOR TVP PROPAGANDA OR SOLVERE SO GENEROUSLY - FURTHER Wielowieyska: "Perhaps funds for the disabled would be found if the government stopped pouring money into socially harmful or useless projects? If it didn't generously sponsor the propaganda of state television, the Smolensk subcommittee, the Solvere company, or the Polish National Foundation, not to mention the bloated expenses and bonuses for the leading politicians of the ruling party. Furthermore, many social expenses also end up in the pockets of the wealthy." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23304913,pis-gra-w-pokera-podatnicy-placa-ta-nieznosna-polityka.html

-- AGNIESZKA KUBLIK ON PiS'S IMAGE COLLAPSING - writes on wyborcza.pl: "And so, the image of PiS has collapsed – a party that is neither thrifty, nor solidary and empathetic, nor hard-working (unless it's for its own). Since 1989, no government has prepared a system of support for such families, but only this current one claimed to be better than others because it was guided by law and justice. A false image always comes to the surface." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23301537,prawo-i-sprawiedliwosc-falszywy-wizerunek-na-wierzch-wyplywa.html

-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON POPULISM HAVING SHORT LEGS - writes in RZ: "But there is another big risk in PiS's actions. The strategy of the rulers resorting to populist tactics has short legs. A week ago, at its convention, PiS promised Poles another cash injection into their pockets. Since 500+ brought high support, the government decided to respond to poll problems by distributing money. Families of disabled people are told that the budget is doing great, the economy is growing, the government is distributing money, and their situation – despite the protest from three years ago – is still very difficult. It's no wonder they say "let's check" and also reach out for their share. Law and Justice has fallen into its own trap, and other social groups are waiting in line, demanding support or raises." http://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/180429837-Szuldrzynski-Rzad-wpadl-we-wlasne-sidla.html&template=restricted

-- JACEK ŻAKOWSKI ON THE SOLIDARITY TAX - writes in GW: "The most solidarity-oriented, pro-democratic, and harmless to the market – as Piketty shows – is a wealth tax (on companies, houses, yachts, etc.), i.e., on wealth above a certain level. It encourages efficiency and curbs inequality, but it is politically difficult because it hits the powerful (in the Third Polish Republic, especially those enriched by the transformation, i.e., the Church and influential wheeler-dealers, i.e., the Prime Minister). The idea of a solidarity tax is a difficult attempt for PiS. For protesting parents, it is enough that PiS corrupts its activists and the Church less. But to create a solidarity order, the authorities must take from the powerful. This is unlikely to happen. It will fall on PIT, meaning the working population will contribute to the poorer, the rich will remain untouched, and solidarity will remain only in name." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23304770,kto-zaplaci-za-solidarnosc-w-demokracji-trzeba-sie-dzielic.html

-- GET BACK HAS INTERESTED THE PRIME MINISTER AND THE SERVICES - DGP front page.

-- DGP ON HOW MORAWIECKI'S ENTOURAGE REACTS TO THE GET BACK AFFAIR: "Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has also taken an interest in Get Back. We have learned that on Friday, a meeting took place at the Prime Minister's Chancellery with, among others, the president of the Warsaw Stock Exchange, Marek Dietl, and the aforementioned head of the KNF. The state failed to deal with the financial pyramid that was Amber Gold. We don't want anyone to accuse us of inactivity or incompetence again this time – says a DGP informant from government circles. We were unable to obtain a comment on this matter from the government spokesperson. ABW also did not respond to our questions." http://gospodarka.dziennik.pl/news/artykuly/573131,getback-zainteresowal-premiera.html

-- GET BACK UNDER SCRUTINY - RZ front page: "From numerous letters from our readers, it appears that GetBack bonds were often advertised by intermediaries as a very safe product. They were even baselessly compared to term deposits and offered to people who should not invest large sums in such securities."

-- WHERE WAS THE STATE IN THE GET BACK AFFAIR - Tomasz Pietryga in RZ: "But where is our state? What is the Financial Supervision Authority doing, which is maintained, among other things, to react in such situations? Are boys in short pants working there, or people responsible for the state and its financial market?" http://www.rp.pl/Opinie/304229959-Tomasz-Pietryga-GetBack-czyli-chwila-proby.html

-- 24 YEARS AGO, the Democratic Union and the Liberal-Democratic Congress merged to form the Freedom Union.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Anna Kalczyńska-Maciejowska, Miłosz Lodowski, Marcin Pieńkowski, Stanisław Huskowski.


Łukasz Mężyk