state of play: 04/07/2018
-- 223 MANDATES FOR PIS IN SE POLL: http://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/nowy-sondaz-dla-se-pis-musi-szukac-koalicjanta_1048388.html
-- ESTYMATOR POLL FOR DO RZECZY - PIS LOSES 7 POINTS BUT STILL HAS ALMOST 40%: “According to the Estymator poll for DoRzeczy.pl, the ruling party can count on 39.4 percent of the votes. This result means a drop of 7.4 percentage points compared to the previous survey conducted by this firm. The Civic Platform came in second with 28.3 percent. Schetyna's party gained 2.6 percentage points. Behind PO is the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) with 9.3 percent (an increase of 2.5 percentage points). Kukiz’15 and PSL would also find themselves in the Sejm. Paweł Kukiz's grouping recorded an increase of 1 percentage point and can count on the support of 8.9 percent of Poles. Support for Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz's party is declared by 6 percent of Poles, which is 0.9 percentage points more than in the previous survey.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/389235-sondaz-estymator-prawo-i-sprawiedliwosc-na-czele-z-duzym-spadkiem-poparcia-sld-wyprzedza-kukiz15
-- BORUSEWICZ RECEIVED ALMOST 600 THOUSAND IN BONUSES AND RETIREMENT PAY: “It shows that Bogdan Borusewicz, from bonuses, vacation pay, and retirement severance, received over 600 thousand zlotys (gross amounts)! The retirement severance alone for the Marshal of the Senate cost over 100 thousand zlotys.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/389120-tylko-u-nas-ponad-600-tys-zlotych-z-nagrod-i-ekwiwalentu-urlopowego-dla-bogdana-borusewicza-wiemy-jak-nagradzano-w-senacie
-- WILL GRZEGORZ SCHETYNA PERFORM A "KITCHEN REVOLUTION" IN WROCŁAW? - Michał Syska on Krytyka Polityczna: “Perhaps Grzegorz Schetyna will unwittingly serve us a kitchen revolution. With the nomination of Ujazdowski, he not only revealed Platforma's weakness – the inability to find a popular person knowledgeable about the city within its own ranks in one of its electoral strongholds. The leader of PO also adopted a risky course to the right, deciding that the best barrier against PiS in Wrocław would be a politician strongly associated with this party and its cultural conservatism. In 2007 and 2011, Donald Tusk managed to defeat Kaczyński's party by appealing to a portion of the left-wing electorate. It is difficult to determine what calculations Schetyna is guided by when abandoning this strategy. We will learn the results only in the autumn.”
-- WROCŁAW AS A TEST FOR THE LEFT - writes Syska: “Many commentators accuse left-wing activists of criticizing the liberal-conservative Platform for being a liberal-conservative formation while simultaneously being unable to propose their own political offer. The Wrocław case will therefore be an interesting test before 2019.” http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/wroclaw-grzegorz-schetyna-ujazdowski/
-- JACEK JAŚKOWIAK IN RADIO ZET ON THE QUESTION ABOUT UJAZDOWSKI: "This is the responsibility of PO leader Grzegorz Schetyna..." http://www.radiozet.pl/Radio/Programy/Gosc-Radia-ZET/Jaskowiak-w-Radiu-ZET-Nalezy-zaczac-od-siebie.-Kaczynski-powinien-zrezygnowac-z-tego-bizancjum
-- THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION SHOULD LISTEN TO THE OPPOSITION - Adam Szostkiewicz: “Therefore, the European Commission should not allow PiS's scenario to come to fruition: first, the demolition of the constitution, then gestures of pseudo-reconciliation and a 'compromise' forced by Warsaw's PiS. However, if it agrees, it will score an own goal. It will never again be a credible guardian of constitutional democracy, but will become a hostage to the 'politics of smiles' of this or that government, which is destroying democracy under the banner of national sovereignty. (...) Perhaps, before accepting the 'compromise' – which is the practical acceptance of the destruction of constitutional democracy in Poland – the Commission should consult with the Polish opposition. Accepting the 'compromise' in its current form would be a blow to the credibility of the opposition, which has co-protested with a part of society for two years in a just cause.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/1744322,1,pis-liczy-ze-zawrze-z-unia-kompromis-skad-ten-optymizm.read
-- PIS'S TANK WAS MADE OF CHOCOLATE - Sławomir Sierakowski: “PiS was rolling through Poland like a tank. The sun came out and the tank started to melt because it was only made of chocolate.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/blitzkrieg-pis-u-zatrzymany/0wey9ev
-- POWER IS SLIPPING AWAY - Gazeta Wyborcza lead article.
-- JAKUB MAJMUREK ON PIS'S 5 CRISES: - writes in GW: “Or rather five crises: the crisis of impossibility; the crisis of Jarosław Kaczyński's leadership; the crisis of factionalism within PiS; the crisis of programmatic contradictions; the crisis of succession after Kaczyński.”
-- ON ONE HAND, THE PROMISE OF A SECOND BAVARIA, ON THE OTHER, SESSIONS OF ANGER ON KRAKOWSKIE PRZEDMIEŚCIE - writes Majmurek: “So, on the one hand, we have the promise of a second Bavaria, and on the other, sessions of anger on Krakowskie Przedmieście. On the one hand, a rational recognition that Poland should use its participation in Europe to move towards an economic model characteristic of more developed countries; on the other, tales of 'defending sovereignty' against Brussels and 'Polish dignity' against Jan Tomasz Gross, who tarnishes Polish merits and historical dignity. These two narratives cannot be reconciled. It is not strange that many are only now seeing their contradiction – for example, in PiS's retreat in the conflict with Europe – but rather that a party that has been in power for so long has managed to combine them without major collision.”
-- PIS MUST DECIDE IF IT'S A MODERNIZING CHRISTIAN DEMOCRACY OR A REVOLUTIONARY PARTY OF REVENGE - Majmurek continues in GW: “That time has passed, and PiS will have to decide whether it is a modernizing Christian democracy or a revolutionary party of revenge. Either of these decisions will cost Nowogrodzka a part of its electorate and the loyalty of certain factions of its active members.”
-- SCHETYNA'S PLATFORM IS A SHADOW OF ITS FORMER SELF - Majmurek continues in GW: “The prospects do not look rosy. Today's PiS is a product of a party model that is almost the property of the leader, who communicates directly with the electorate over party structures and holds all factions and contenders with an iron fist. Succession is very difficult in such a system. The Platform was such a party, which, after the charismatic Tusk, under the leadership of Grzegorz Schetyna, is a shadow of its former self.
-- PIS STILL HAS POLL AND POLITICAL SURPLUSES - Majmurek's conclusion: “But before we start enjoying all of this, it's worth remembering that the ruling party still has poll and political surpluses. Enough so that even if current trends continue, its downfall could be long and slow. The opposition is not having an easy time. However, it has received a signal that PiS is not an invincible machine – now it must engage in a real fight with it.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,23236193,wladza-pis-owi-sie-wymyka-takiego-kryzysu-w-partii.html
-- THEY HARDLY STARTED, AND THEY ALREADY HAVE TO TURN BACK - GPC: “This action probably cost the Civic Platform a lot, and after a few dozen hours, it turned out to be a failure. Moreover, a lawsuit has already been announced, as the 'Convoy of Shame' billboards did not lack lies. The desperation of PO is also evidenced by absurd 'messages for structures' – even the Cursed Soldiers were involved in their content!” https://gpcodziennie.pl/86370-ledworuszylijuzmuszazawracac.html
-- THE LOST LEADER HAS REGAINED CONTROL, DISARMED THE OPPOSITION'S ARGUMENTS - Tomasz Walczak in SE: “The owl of Minerva, however, flies out at dusk – it took a trip to the bottom and enormous poll losses for sobriety to set in. A lost Jarosław Kaczyński has finally regained control and returned to his playing field, where he once again sets the rules of the game. By decreeing modesty for his own ranks, he went a step further – he also mandated it for opposition politicians, announcing a 20% salary reduction for parliamentarians and local government officials. As populist as these decrees from the leader may sound, they disarm the opposition of the excellent argument about the arrogance and hubris of power. From sybarites in love with Byzantine splendor, PiS members have transformed overnight into ascetics who love moderation. Although just moments ago they were lamenting to journalists that they didn't have enough money until the first of the month, today PiS politicians will be setting the boundaries of good taste. The opposition must either accept this game and compete in savings, or it will be labeled as spendthrifts and debauchees by Kaczyński's pack.”
-- PIS IS MOVING FORWARD, ALTHOUGH THE BAD TASTE REMAINS - Walczak's conclusion: “So, Kaczyński is once again playing the role he loves – the main player in Polish politics. PiS, meanwhile, is moving forward. Although the bad taste from his recent follies remains.” http://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/opinie/walczak-komentuje-prezes-odzyskal-sterownosc-niesmak-pozosta_1048399.html
-- APOLOGIES WORK IF THEY ARE QUICK AND SINCERE - Agnieszka Kublik: “So, if Kaczyński apologized for the bonuses, would PiS have a chance to regain lost support and its image as a morally pure party? No. Because apologies have a positive effect only if they are quick and sincere. In this case, that was not the case. For many weeks, PiS saw nothing wrong with the bonuses. Pro-government media defended their party as best they could.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23232881,kaczynski-po-nagrodach-zagral-karta-przepraszam-niech-sie.html
-- EVEN THE OPPOSITION USES THE DECEASED PRESIDENT AS A VOICE OF CONSCIENCE - Jarosław Kopeć in GW: “Lech's legacy is a figure of sensible conservatism. Not only PiS appeals to it, but even the opposition, which uses the deceased president as a voice of conscience.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,23236122,posmiertna-aura-lecha-kaczynskiego-jako-meza-stanu-nie.html
-- WOJCIECH MUCHA ON THE COVER OF POLITICO MAGAZINE - LIKE TVN24'S AFTERNOON SHOW - writes in GPC: “The thesis is as follows: Hungary and Poland are pursuing parallel policies, based on the 'sentiments of target electorates towards the times of socialist stabilization.' Their supporters are most often 'older, less mobile residents of the provinces,' where foreign languages are not heard, and the media controlled by the authorities are the only window to the world. This, of course, causes them to be stupefied and unaware of what they are doing when voting for PiS and Fidesz. Is that not how you see the State? It doesn't matter. Although it sounds like a report from the afternoon publicist segment of TVN24, it was published as the most important text in the influential international magazine 'Politico.' For us, these 'diagnoses' are nothing new. We have been hearing them in relation to the Polish right-wing at least since 2005. Their proponents are now most often in the opposition, to which this very perception of reality has relegated them. However, neither they nor their friends in the West understand this.” https://gpcodziennie.pl/86350-czarneladyuniieuropejskiej.html
-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON THE NEW ANTHEM - writes in RZ: “Perhaps, then, a good way to commemorate the 100th anniversary of regaining independence would be to announce a competition for a new national anthem? We can take an example from our ancestors. After all, one of the three songs from which the anthem was chosen in the Second Polish Republic was 'Rota,' which was also eagerly used during the 'Solidarity' era. It is worth remembering that it was performed for the first time to commemorate the 500th anniversary of the Battle of Grunwald. And we still sing it today.” http://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/304059961-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Hymn-na-czas-niepodleglosci.html
-- SENATOR OF THE OKP AND DEMOCRATIC UNION ANNA BOGUCKA-SKOWROŃSKA ON ELIZA OLCZYK'S QUESTION WHETHER THE CHURCH LOBBIED FOR JARUZELSKI'S ELECTION AS PRESIDENT: “Directly no, but when I asked Marshal Stelmachowski why we should abstain and not vote against, he replied: 'Did Primate Glemp call you this morning?'. The Church was in favor of the agreement; it oversaw it in Magdalenka, where private meetings took place during the Round Table talks. I remember that when the day of the election came, we walked as a whole club down the corridor to the plenary hall for the National Assembly session. Suddenly, a young PZPR (Polish United Workers' Party) MP threw herself at our knees, shouting: 'Elect him, or they will crush us with tanks.' http://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1370389-Modlilam-sie-by-Kiszczak-nie-dostal-zawalu.html
-- JAROSŁAW KUISZ ON KULTURA LIBERALNA ABOUT "WHOM IT IS PERMISSIBLE TO INTERVIEW": “We can easily point to editorial offices that will never invite political opponents to their pages. The circle of publicists and politicians who will not appear in the same program with competitors is constantly growing. Therefore, it is not surprising that even conducting interviews with people far from our agenda always evokes emotions. In fact, every time questions arise about why liberals should talk at all – these are examples from our pages – with Małgorzata Terlikowska, Bronisław Wildstein, or Marek Jurek? (...) Silence will achieve nothing. We must confront our beliefs with the second or third side of the dispute, instead of closing ourselves off in a comfort zone. (...) Returning to our own backyard: silence will achieve nothing. We must confront our beliefs with the second or third side of the dispute, instead of closing ourselves off in a comfort zone. The European Union has been a battlefield for two years. More and more countries are facing the challenge of their own populism. Sometimes victory comes by a hair's breadth, as in the Austrian presidential elections. Sometimes liberal democrats lose miserably, as in our country. It seems there is no possibility of declaring that we have won once and for all against illiberal populists and then go on vacation. And so, political vacations after the Cold War lasted unusually long. Now they have ended irrevocably. And this is the world we live in. That is precisely why one must be well-prepared substantively for polemics or interviews. And above all – to engage in them. That's all and yet it's everything. Because whether we like it or not, people who think differently are our compatriots, they live in the same cities, on the same streets, in the same buildings. And ultimately, only radicals win from radicalism.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/04/06/kuisz-dziennikarstwo-wywiady-radykalizm/
-- 5th anniversary of Margaret Thatcher's death.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Grzegorz Furgo, SUNDAY: Danuta Hübner, Waldemar Fydrych, Marek Sawicki, Dorota Warakomska, Renata Kim.
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