state of play: 03/29/2018
-- HOFMAN ON HOW HE COULD ACHIEVE A GREAT RESULT IN THE FIRST ROUND, HOFMAN AGREES WITH MASTALEREK ON BONUSES, OŁDAKOWSKI FOR PRESIDENT KACZYŃSKI'S MONUMENT: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/03/29
-- ZDANOWSKA 63, KOPCIŃSKA 18 - a poll in Dziennik Łódzki. http://www.dzienniklodzki.pl/wiadomosci/lodz/a/prezydencki-sondaz-dla-lodzi-hanna-zdanowska-wygrywa-wybory-w-pierwszej-turze-joanna-kopcinska-i-piotr-glinski-notuja-ponizej,13047018/
-- FRASYNIUK CANDIDATE IN WROCŁAW - Malwina Gadawa on the front page of Gazeta Wrocławska: “Feverish searches are underway for a candidate for the mayor of Wrocław who would win the autumn elections. More and more well-known names are appearing on the political stock exchange. Will Civic Platform, Nowoczesna, and Rafał Dutkiewicz's camp reach an agreement and field a joint candidate against Law and Justice? A proposal has come from the Wrocław city hall – Platforma will renounce the candidacy of Prof. Alicja Chybicka and support Jacek Sutryk in the local elections, and in return, will be able to appoint deputy mayors and the provincial marshal.” http://www.gazetawroclawska.pl/polityka/a/frasyniuk-ujazdowski-kto-prezydentem-wroclawia-przeciw-pis,13050574/
-- JACEK KAPICA WAS DETAINED - WIADOMOŚCI REPORTED: http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114883,23205367,wiadomosci-zatrzymanego-bylego-wiceministra-z-rzadu-tuska.html
-- DR RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK ON THE POLL - RETURN TO NORMALCY WITHIN A FEW WEEKS: “Let's remember that polls conducted immediately after an event usually show a huge overrepresentation of a positive or negative protagonist. This poll was taken after the bonus affair, so it shouldn't surprise us. Notice that in the early days of PiS rule, it happened that after major KOD or PO demonstrations, polls showed very significant increases in support for opposition parties and drops for PiS, and then after 2-3 weeks, a return to normal occurred. And I think this is an element of this phenomenon. Matters related to the aforementioned bonuses, as well as several others that have been present in the public space in recent weeks, were not favorable for PiS. And a structural factor to consider is that in the second half of last year, PiS reached its historical maximum.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/387969-trzy-pytania-do-prof-chwedoruka-sondaz-dla-tvn-u-zostal-zrobiony-po-sprawie-z-premiami-wiec-nie-powinien-nas-zaskakiwac
-- NOTHING TO CELEBRATE, PiS'S WEAKENING DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE OPPOSITION, NEITHER INTELLECTUALLY NOR ORGANIZATIONALLY - Stanisław Skarżyński on wyborcza.pl: “PiS's weakening in polls does not make opposition parties' programs better, their pre-election agreements closer, or politicians more motivated for hard work and disciplined enough to avoid reprehensible blunders – like the one during the vote on the Save Women committee's project, when the project failed due to opposition MPs who abstained from voting.”
-- FEW VOTERS WANT TO RETURN TO POLAND BEFORE THE 2015 ELECTIONS - writes Skarżyński: “What good will PiS stumbling over its own feet do for a democratic rule of law? Unfortunately, absolutely nothing. Quite the opposite – the belief that PiS will self-destruct is most dangerous precisely for the opposition, which has only just begun to crawl after years of unbelievable intellectual and organizational stagnation. (...) Therefore, there is a justified fear that PiS's declines and even a relative rebound in opposition parties' ratings will slow down or even halt these processes – because why bother reaching agreements, dividing, giving up spots on lists, when polls indicate that 'it will somehow work out.' This would be a catastrophe. Firstly, because few voters want to return to Poland before the 2015 elections. Secondly, no one has said that Jarosław Kaczyński is incapable of reviving his party.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23205153,nie-ma-sie-z-czego-cieszyc-slabniecie-pis-nie-wzmacnia-opozycji.html
-- THIS IS CERTAINLY THE EFFECT OF SZYDŁO AND MORAWIECKI'S FATAL STATEMENTS - prof. Jarosław Flis in a commentary for GW.
-- JOANNA LICHOCKA ON POLLS CONDUCTED BY FRIENDLY STATIONS - writes in GPC: “Polls conducted by friendly stations show a decline in PiS's ratings and give hope to the camarilla for a return to power. It is therefore worth recalling the essence of PO's rule: a criminal group stole assets worth billions of zlotys, the legal system of the Third Republic legalized everything, and people were thrown onto the streets. Because Warsaw is the government, mentality, and audacity of PO in a nutshell.” https://gpcodziennie.pl/85624-prawdazabojczalgarstwokosztowne.html
-- GOVERNMENT SUPPORTERS DID NOT RECEIVE DEFENSE LANGUAGE FOR THE HOLIDAYS - writes Jakub Bierzyński on gazeta.pl: “Before our eyes, the disintegration of the ruling camp has begun. This process will accelerate during the holidays. The holidays, contrary to appearances, are a time of possible tectonic shifts in the political consciousness of citizens. It is then that long-unseen relatives meet. It is in this group that discussions about politics begin between people representing different options, who do not meet each other every day. Meanwhile, government supporters have not received instructions for the holidays. They have no language to defend their own beliefs. The party has left them helpless. Should they repeat Szydło's words, 'We deserve it'? They will be ridiculed.”
-- THE OPPOSITION IN NO WAY CONTRIBUTED TO THIS - BIERZYŃSKI'S CONCLUSION: “In the next poll, further declines in ratings can be expected. The opposition has contributed to this in no way. PiS is losing to itself. It is losing effectively.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,161770,23205210,bierzynski-sondaze-pis-spadna-jeszcze-bardziej-stanie-sie.html
-- TRY TO ENJOY A BIT OF LUXURY WHEN YOU PROMISED TO LIVE LIKE A MONK - Michał Danielewski in GW: “Apparently, Polish voters do not tolerate hypocrisy. As long as you are a straightforward autocrat, you dismantle the separation of powers, you break the constitution – your support grows. You are a simple-minded failure with no understanding of diplomacy or the world – your ratings soar. But try to indulge in a bit of luxury when you promised to live like a monk – and you're done for.”
-- PiS CONSISTENTLY BUILT ITS IMAGE ON THE ASCETIC LIFE OF THE PRESIDENT - Danielewski: “PiS consistently built its image on the ascetic life of President Kaczyński. Modesty, lack of a bank account, general disregard for worldly matters contrasted with the excess of Civic Platform politicians, which PiS exaggerated. The infamous octopuses, watches, and rosy tan irritated citizens even more the more crookedly Jarosław Kaczyński tied his tie and the more disheveled his hair was.”
-- DANIELEWSKI'S TEXT IN ONE SENTENCE: “PiS is falling in the polls because there is nothing worse than a sinful party of saints.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23204760,pis-spada-w-sondazach-bo-nie-ma-nic-gorszego-niz-grzeszna-partia.html
-- ACCORDING TO GW'S CONVERSATION PARTNERS FROM PiS, THE PARTY IS ABANDONING THE IDEA OF A HARSH LOCAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN - writes Iwona Szpala: “According to our sources, PiS wants to withdraw from its earlier idea of a harsh local election campaign. Jaki would fit such a campaign. – In Warsaw, we are speaking to the center electorate, who dislikes brawls and brutal settlements. We will want to talk seriously about Warsaw. There are already preliminary declarations from the Prime Minister for support for the capital, including financial support.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23204855,przedwyborcze-warszawskie-rozterki-pis.html
-- UNPREPARED BILLS ARE BEING SUBMITTED TO THE SEJM - SŁAWOMIR NITRAS in conversation with Jacek Nizinkiewicz in RZ: “PiS has lost the ability to objectively assess reality. They treat their own imaginings as the expectations of the majority of Poles. Unprepared bills are being submitted to the Sejm. I am referring not only to those concerning the judiciary or the IPN, but also, for example, to those concerning housing construction. The amendment to Mieszkanie+ has not yet entered into force, and the government is already announcing that it will pursue a different concept, while disavowing the current one. In PiS, there is a ruthless factional struggle for the greatest possible influence. In this atmosphere, the issue of abortion has become a hostage to this ruthless struggle. This must meet with a social reaction. And Prime Minister Morawiecki has very limited influence over the government; ministers do as they please. In reality, he has no influence over PiS. A clear lack of competence, mainly political, is evident.”
-- PiS WILL LOSE IF IT TIGHTENS ABORTION LAW - NITRAS to NIZINKIEWICZ: “If PiS tightens abortion law, it will lose the upcoming elections. In Poland, the center and moderate views decide. After what PiS has presented so far, the demand for moderation is particularly noticeable. By tightening the law, PiS will hit moderate voters and those center voters who were misled in 2015 and cast their vote for PiS.”
-- KOPACZ IS AN EMOTIONAL STABILIZER - NITRAS STATES: “Ewa Kopacz is an emotional stabilizer within Platforma and has a virtually salvific effect on the internal atmosphere. Her distance from current emotions, linked to her experience – she was, after all, Prime Minister, Speaker of the Sejm, Minister of Health, and party leader – is often extremely helpful. It was Ewa Kopacz who persuaded me to strongly support Grzegorz Schetyna.”
-- NITRAS ON THE RISK OF TUSK'S RETURN AND PO POSSIBLY FIELDING A YOUNGER CANDIDATE AGAINST DUDA - he tells Nizinkiewicz in RZ: “Tusk's return to Polish politics would be risky for him and would not give him much. He is a politically fulfilled man, a man of success. His participation in the presidential elections is an interesting candidacy, although some claim that PO must field a younger candidate against Andrzej Duda, of a similar age to the current president.” http://www.rp.pl/Platforma-Obywatelska/303289940-Slawomir-Nitras-Poparcie-dla-PiS-spadnie.html
-- WILL THE PATRIOTS DEFEND PiS - Michał Szułdrzyński in RZ: “The problem is that using the issue of national security to gain a few poll points carries risks. The modernization of the army and increasing our defense capabilities should not be a subject of political dispute. The government and the opposition may differ on how to achieve the goal of strengthening Poland, but they cannot argue about fundamental issues. Both PO and PiS politicians should do everything today to ensure that this matter does not become the subject of the war they are waging. The country's security is more important than minor successes in party support surveys. Neither the army nor Patriot missiles should become a weapon used against each other by the government and the opposition.” http://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/180329156-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Czy-patrioty-obronia-PiS.html
-- STORM IN PiS - on the front page of GW, write Iwona Szpala and Agata Kondzińska: “The Polish National Foundation does not want to disclose details of the 'Polska 100' sailing project, which, according to 'Wyborcza' information, will cost 20 million PLN. The Foundation is also criticized by people associated with PiS.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,23205030,sztorm-w-pis-po-tekscie-wyborczej-o-projekcie-zeglarskim-polska.html
-- DOROTA KANIA ON THE FAILURE OF INFLUENCE AGENTS REGARDING PATRIOTS - writes in GPC: “This contract is a blow to Russia and Putin's policy. And that's why it's worth recalling the constant attacks on Minister Macierewicz – from the attempt to block the NATO summit in Warsaw in 2016, to Tomasz Piątek's book defaming the former Minister of Defense, the constant fake news by Edyta Żemła published on Onet.pl, and equally 'credible' information from 'Gazeta Wyborcza' or Wp.pl. Yesterday was a defeat for influence agents and opponents of a safe, strong Poland. For Vladimir Putin, it was truly a bad day.” https://gpcodziennie.pl/85625-kleskaagenturywplywu.html
-- PAWEŁ WROŃSKI ON UNJUSTIFIED CRITICISM OVER THE PRICE OF PATRIOTS - writes in GW: “This is unjustified criticism, because there is no guarantee that under a different party, Poland would have negotiated better terms. These are political stage directions that are not worth discussing today.”
-- DO NOT STOP AT PROPAGANDA - WROŃSKI'S CONCLUSION: “The danger lies in the fact that the party, the government, and the leadership of the Ministry of National Defense may propagandistically exploit the purchase of two batteries and stop there. Above all, we must ensure that the first phase of the Wisła program does not become the last.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,23204853,kontrakt-na-zakup-i-dostawe-patriotow-to-spozniona-ale-wazna.html
-- ARMY REFORM IS STILL JUST A CONCEPT - Marek Kozubal in RZ: “Perhaps the slow pace of work is due to the months-long conflict between Minister Macierewicz and the Presidential Palace. The Ministry of National Defense is trying to catch up now.” http://www.rp.pl/Analizy/303289943-Reforma-armii-wciaz--jest-tylko-koncepcja.html
-- KRZYSZTOF WOŁODŹKO IN GPC ON SOCIAL TRANSFORMATION: “Today's lamentations about divisions in Poland and the radicalization of views have something of a fear of social change. For three decades of the Third Republic, we have become accustomed to the prevailing status quo. Today, all the major actors on the public stage, often completely different, feel that something is changing. (...) Polish society is transforming before our eyes, perhaps the most significantly since the early years of transformation. Generational changes, cultural shifts, global trends related to the crises of capitalism and powerful waves of migration from Africa to Europe, the flow of people from East to West of our continent – all of this is happening right now. We have often heard that it is time for the Fourth Republic. But it may happen on its own. And it may be even different than its opponents and supporters think.” https://gpcodziennie.pl/85595-ivrpjestzaprogieminnanizmyslimy.html
-- ORLEN TO EXPAND MOŻEJKI - GPC: “The business climate in Lithuania has significantly improved, which is why we are considering launching the process of expanding Orlen Lietuva to reduce, among other things, production costs – said PKN Orlen CEO Daniel Obajtek after a meeting with Lithuanian politicians.” https://gpcodziennie.pl/85601-orlenchcerozbudowacmozejki.html
-- PFR TO INVEST ALMOST A BILLION IN JAWORZNO III - GPC: “The Polish Development Fund will invest up to PLN 880 million in the construction of a 910 MW power unit at the Jaworzno III Power Plant, owned by Tauron Polska Energia.” https://gpcodziennie.pl/85602-pfrinwestujewenergetyke.html
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