NEWS

11/05/2020

19:57

Latest Internal Kantar Poll Shows Civic Platform Clearly Regaining Support, But Also a Slight Bounce for PiS. Far from a Party Earthquake.

Łukasz Mężyk

300POLITYKA has seen a report from an internal Civic Platform poll, conducted using the CATI system on a full 1000-person sample. It indicates that Civic Coalition is 10 points behind PiS, in results calculated by this reputable firm "excluding undecided voters". If we compare the results of the KANTAR poll to the last public poll from this firm (April 17th), although likely conducted with a different methodology, then Civic Platform has regained as much as 7 points of support, PiS 3, and the Left 2. An increase for Konfederacja can be estimated within one percentage point. However, the ratings for PSL have clearly weakened – a decrease of about 3 points. Civic Platform's result in the KANTAR poll is 3 points higher than its electoral result from 2019. The KANTAR poll may indicate that voters clearly distinguish between the issues of presidential and parliamentary elections. PiS has slightly lower ratings than Andrzej Duda, while Civic Platform – striking­ly – has significantly higher ratings than Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska, and Władysław Kosiniak is perceived better by voters than his party. It can be assumed that the poll conducted last Friday reflected the Senate's rejection of the postal voting bill, and through the actions of Marshal Grodzki, voters may associate the upper house more strongly with Civic Platform than with other opposition parties. All available research indicates that voters expected the May elections to be postponed. Additionally, perhaps in public consciousness, the role of Borys Budka and Civic Platform in discussions with Jarosław Gowin (internal polls suggested voters expected this) to postpone the elections was more strongly linked. This was compounded by numerous, loud parliamentary interventions by MPs – such as visits by MPs Nitras, Tomczyk, and Kierwiński to the Chancellery of the Prime Minister and the Polish Security Printing Works, and the publicizing of the issue of printing ballots without a legal basis. Kantar conducted the survey on May 8, 2020, on a representative sample of 1000 residents of Poland aged 18 and over (party preferences were measured on a sample of people declaring "definitely" or "rather" their intention to participate in the elections).

Łukasz Mężyk