state of play: 04/14/2025
— ANDRZEJ GWIAZDA TURNS 90.
— IT WILL BE A VERY DIFFICULT AND COMPETITIVE RACE; 2. ANTI-EU SENTIMENTS HAVE TRULY GROWN; 3. SOME OF OUR ESTIMATES ARE QUITE FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS AND AVERAGE POLLS – ANDREI ROMAN, HEAD OF ATLASINTEL CONFIRMS THE COMPANY HAS STARTED CONDUCTING RESEARCH IN POLAND: “Indeed, AtlasIntel has begun to cover Poland. And from what I can see: 1. It will be a very difficult and competitive race; 2. Anti-EU sentiments have truly grown; 3. Some of our estimates are quite far from the consensus and average polls. A rather chaotic mix.”
https://x.com/andrei__roman/status/1910739622407045330
— ATLASINTEL IS PROBABLY THE BEST RESEARCH COMPANY IN THE WORLD, WHICH, AGAINST THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER COMPANIES, SHOWED TRUMP'S IMPENDING MAJOR VICTORY IN THE USA.
— TRZASKOWSKI AND MENTZEN SUFFERED LOSSES AFTER THE DEBATE WEEKEND, WHILE NAWROCKI, HOŁOWNIA, AND BIEJAT GAINED SUPPORT AMONG RESPONDENTS – WRITES WP ABOUT THE UNITED SURVEYS POLL: “Rafał Trzaskowski, despite leading, recorded a significant drop in support – as much as 4.8 percentage points in one week – according to a United Surveys poll for Wirtualna Polska. In contrast, Karol Nawrocki gained 5.4 percentage points during the same period. The survey was conducted after Friday's presidential debates in Końskie. Sławomir Mentzen took third place, with his support dropping by 5.4 percentage points to 13.4 percent. The fourth result belongs to Szymon Hołownia, who gained 2.0 percentage points and currently enjoys the support of 9.1 percent of respondents. Magdalena Biejat also recorded a significant increase among candidates in this part of the electoral field – her support rose by 3.6 percentage points to 6.3 percent, giving her fifth place in the ranking.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/rafal-trzaskowski-traci-przewage-w-najnowszym-sondazu-prezydenckim-dla-wp-7145694117604320a
— WHO WON THE DEBATE IN KOŃSKIE – ACCORDING TO IBRIS POLL:
TRZASKOWSKI 32.4%
NAWROCKI 28%
HOŁOWNIA 11.8%
https://x.com/IBRiS_PL/status/1911362682411720948
— BIEJAT RECEIVED AN IDEA VIA SMS FROM HER CAMPAIGN TEAM TO TAKE AWAY TRZASKOWSKI'S FLAG – TVN24 JOURNALIST: https://x.com/Lena211376606/status/1911494721442300121
— STANOWSKI ON THE DEBATE: “I'm looking – near the KFC route, maybe I'll grab a sandwich and eat it while driving (well, I know, it's a violation), but a quick thought that if the sauce drips, I'll show up with a grease stain, so it's not worth the risk. In the market square in Końskie, I quickly buy fries at the first place I find. Cold after the debate in the market square, after the humiliating scuffle to get into the gymnasium (TVP debate), I'm suddenly among the debaters. I don't know the rules of this debate, I don't even have a piece of paper (one of the opponents tore off a piece for me, thank you), I borrow a pen from the technical staff. I haven't had my makeup done, just a quick light powder, which is why I'm shining like a dog's balls later. No comb. Jakubiak enters the hall a minute before the start.”
https://x.com/K_Stanowski/status/1911390199512260775
— THE COMPANY OF ANDRZEJ MOEBUS, RESPONSIBLE FOR CIVIC PLATFORM'S ELECTION EVENTS, IS TO ORGANIZE THE CELEBRATIONS OF THE THOUSANDTH ANNIVERSARY OF CHROBRY'S CORONATION IN WARSAW UNDER THE PATRONAGE OF THE PRIME MINISTER – IZABELA KACPRZAK IN RZ: “We have also confirmed in our sources that Andrzej Moebus himself and Karolina Kowalczyk participated in the meeting at the Prime Minister's Chancellery concerning the organization of these celebrations. – Mr. Andrzej Moebus behaved at this meeting as a person of the highest trust. We got the impression that he has a promise from the prime minister to organize this event – our informant tells us.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art42109001-piknik-1000-lecia-robi-szara-eminencja-po-jak-i-od-kogo-dostal-zlecenie
— BOSAK DECLARES FILING A COMPLAINT WITH THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE REGARDING FRIDAY'S DEBATE, “WHO DECIDED THAT TUSK'S FRIEND'S COMPANY WOULD ORGANIZE AN EVENT CONCERNING THE 1000TH ANNIVERSARY OF CHROBRY'S CORONATION?”. PIS WITH PARLIAMENTARY CONTROL – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/04/14/
— HOŁOWNIA IS HIMSELF A VICTIM OF HIS OWN INVOLVEMENT IN BUILDING THIS SYSTEM – PIOTR GURSZTYN ON WPOLITYCE.PL: “Marshal Hołownia is a victim of himself. He authorized all the most anti-democratic moves of the current government. And it is these moves that have led him to the place where he is today. The list of these wrongdoings is long and will be even longer, as there is no reflection on his part, let alone action. The only thing he does is get outraged from time to time. Unfortunately, in terms of real action, he is no longer so bold. Therefore, we hear words, but we do not see actions consistent with the declared statements.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/726385-ani-cyrk-ani-demokracja-to-po-prostu-zamordyzm
— THE "SUPER FRIDAY" OF DEBATES IN KOŃSKIE TURNED OUT TO BE A TURNING POINT IN THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN. IT REVEALED THE WEAKNESSES OF NAWROCKI AND TRZASKOWSKI. AND THE AUTHENTICITY OF BIEJAT, STANOWSKI, AND HOŁOWNIA EARNED THE SYMPATHY OF INTERNET USERS – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ.
— IN A CERTAIN SIMPLIFICATION, ONE CAN SAY THAT THE POLITICAL EMOTIONS GENERATED ON FRIDAY IN SOCIAL MEDIA WERE THE GREATEST IN POLISH HISTORY – SZUŁDRZYŃSKI FURTHER IN RZ: “Therefore, in a certain simplification, one can say that the political emotions generated on Friday in social media were the greatest in Polish history. As internet analysts from Res Futura note, for the first time in a decade, the polarization mechanism (PiS vs PO) has stopped working in the Polish infosphere. New trends, new dynamics have emerged, which may influence the last five weeks of the election campaign.”
— A PROFOUND CRISIS OF OLD MEDIA – SZUŁDRZYŃSKI FURTHER IN RZ: “As a result, it turned out that the major television stations are either working for Nawrocki or for Trzaskowski. And seeing that the debates have generated a strong sentiment against the duopoly, this may have consequences in a decrease in trust in the media as such. Voters tired of the PiS and PO battle may strengthen their anti-system attitude, considering that the main media are parties to this war instead of reviewers. Unfortunately, media that want to be objective may lose from this, while social platforms may gain – this phenomenon has been happening for some time now.”
https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art42111631-michal-szuldrzynski-trzaskowski-nawrocki-i-kryzys-duopolu-piec-wnioskow-z-debatowego-superpiatku-w-konskich
— TRZASKOWSKI, IN AN ELEGANT SUIT, WALKED WITH CONFIDENT STRIDES TOWARDS THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE. AT ONE POINT, HE DECIDED TO TURN BACK – LESZEK JAŻDŻEWSKI IN INTERIA: “Trzaskowski, in an elegant suit, walked with confident strides towards the Presidential Palace. At one point, he decided to turn back and confront the breathless Nawrocki in a tracksuit, who could no longer even see his rival's back. A group of candidates who happened to be in the vicinity and who couldn't believe their luck eagerly joined the commotion.”
— TRZASKOWSKI REMAINS IN THE LEAD, BUT BATTERED AND BRUISED – JAŻDŻEWSKI FURTHER IN INTERIA: “Trzaskowski remains in the lead, but battered and bruised. He may not have lost much, but he allowed others to gain, so he lost relatively, and certainly did not solidify his dominance. He may have the largest army, but he allowed others to set the battlefield for him, even though it was his staff that organized the debate.”
— ONE THING MUST BE ACKNOWLEDGED: THEY EFFECTIVELY CONVINCED POLES THAT THESE ELECTIONS ARE FAR FROM DECIDED – JAŻDŻEWSKI'S CONCLUSION IN INTERIA.
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/wybory/prezydenckie/news-debata-i-po-debacie,nId,21395329
— CAMPAIGN OFF-TOPIC, OR WHAT POLISH POLITICIANS ARE DEBATING – WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “Election campaign teams treat voters like unintelligent children to whom unrealistic promises can be made, ignoring real problems and challenges. (...) I don't blame the presidential candidates for preferring to recite learned formulas rather than address difficult topics. I blame their political marketing specialists, as well as journalists who interview politicians daily in many media outlets and set the agenda.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31852091,kampania-nie-na-temat-czyli-o-czym-debatuja-polscy-politycy.html
— RISING COST OF LIVING, NOT JUST PRICES OF EGGS, EDUCATION, OR CHILDCARE, HAVE ACCELERATED DRAMATICALLY. AS A PRIVILEGED PERSON, I DO NOT COMPLAIN TOO OFTEN, BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN I PRETEND NOT TO SEE THE PROBLEM – AGATA PASSENT IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Rising cost of living, not just prices of eggs, education, or childcare, have accelerated dramatically. As a privileged person, I do not complain too often, but that does not mean I pretend not to see the problem. Why should I live in the city if eating out in restaurants or going for a glass of wine is now a whim for the wealthiest. Tickets to the philharmonic for traditional festivals have sky-high prices, two theater tickets for parents already amount to triple digits, and if we add a babysitter service after hours, and then fund her return home at night rates, it adds up to an amount that some Poles can live on for a whole week.”
— WITH THE PANDEMIC, MANY OF MY FRIENDS MOVED OUT OF THE CITY. A DECADE AGO, I WOULDN'T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT, BECAUSE I LOVE NEON LIGHTS AND THE HUM OF TRAMS, BUT PLN 4.50 FOR A REPAIR FUND FEE? – PASSENT FURTHER: “With the pandemic, many of my friends moved out of the city. A decade ago, I wouldn't even think about it, because I love neon lights and the hum of trams, but PLN 4.50 for a repair fund fee? Some Warsaw residents pay over PLN 1,000 for a 40-square-meter apartment. Siren wail! This alarm has not been canceled.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2295991,1,wiosna-ach-to-czynsz.read
— BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Gwiazda turns 90, birthdays are also celebrated by: Ewa Tomaszewska (78), Antoni Tokarczuk, Robert Górski, Arkadiusz Czartoryski, Mariusz Witczak, Tomasz Arabski.
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