state of play: 02/11/2025

STATE OF PLAY: SE Poll Shows Krzysztof Jakub Stanowski Gearing Up to Challenge Hołownia, the Left Disappears in Poland, Szczęśniak: Will Hołownia Reach the Finish Line? Szadkowska: Tusk Beautifully Neutralized Brzoska

Łukasz Mężyk

— HEADLINE OF THE DAY GOES TO PUDELKA: The current (still) husband of Marianna Schreiber's new partner SUPPORTS the current (still) wife of Maciej Pela
https://www.pudelek.pl/nowa-partnerka-aktualnego-jeszcze-meza-marianny-schreiber-wspiera-aktualna-jeszcze-zone-macieja-peli-7123821631576864a

— POLL LEADERS DOWN BY 2 PP, Mentzen UP, KRZYSZTOF JAKUB STANOWSKI FACTUALLY NEXT STOP: HOŁOWNIA, THE LEFT DISAPPEARS IN POLAND – POLLSTER FOR SE.
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/spada-trzaskowskiemu-i-nawrockiemu-mamy-najnowszy-sondaz-prezydencki-aa-Ygeq-zmth-PBak.html

TRZASKOWSKI 35% (-2 pp)
NAWROCKI 25% (-2 pp)
MENTZEN 16% (+2 pp)
HOŁOWNIA 8% (-3 pp)
KRZYSZTOF JAKUB STANOWSKI 5%
BRAUN 3% (=)
JAKUBIAK 2% (+1 pp)
ZANDBERG 2% (=)
BIEJAT 2% (-1 pp)
others 2%
https://x.com/DawidStats/status/1888976253794783695

— WILL SZYMON HOŁOWNIA REACH THE FINISH LINE – AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO.PRESS: “But there is also the political grim reality. Whispers are heard in the corridors questioning whether Hołownia will 'reach the finish line.' Hołownia's associates repeat that the campaign is just beginning and anything can happen. Competitors from other parties claim that Hołownia is already burnt out – he has no chance of improving his poll results (currently oscillating around 7 percent). In addition to the poor poll results, the political gloom surrounding Szymon Hołownia is also due to the nearing end of the coalition with Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz's party.”

— HE STARTED AS IF UNDER DURESS, JOINING THOSE WHO WILL COMPETE FOR THE VOTES OF THOSE DISSATISFIED WITH THE GOVERNMENT – SZCZĘŚNIAK CONTINUES IN OKO: “He started as if under duress. However, last week he presented a slogan, a program outline, and a strategy. From these, it follows that the Marshal of the Sejm has joined those who will compete for the votes of those dissatisfied with Donald Tusk's government. This group already includes Sławomir Mentzen from Konfederacja, Magdalena Biejat from the Left, Adrian Zandberg from Razem, and of course Karol Nawrocki from PiS.”
https://oko.press/czy-szymon-holownia-dojedzie-do-mety-w-wyborach-prezydenckich

— HOŁOWNIA WILL SLOWLY HAVE TO ACCEPT A PATH SIMILAR TO RYSZARD PETRU OR PAWEŁ KUKIZ – RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN CONVERSATION WITH JAN ZŁOTOWICZ IN SE: “In the case of the Left, I believe, Magdalena Biejat's result of around 4-5 percent will maintain the status quo. However, in the case of Szymon Hołownia, if most current polls are confirmed, it will be a political catastrophe. A catastrophe in which the Third Way will have to weaken within the government. Within the Third Way itself, the Peasant Party, despite its polling weakness but still retaining powerful local structures, will become an even stronger entity. Szymon Hołownia, on the other hand, will slowly have to accept a path similar to Ryszard Petru or Paweł Kukiz. That is, simply becoming an almost rank-and-file politician within a larger coalition.”

— IF TUSK WANTS TO CONTINUE RULING, HE MUST KEEP AT LEAST SOME OF HIS COALITION PARTNERS ALIVE – CHWEDORUK CONTINUES WITH ZŁOTOWICZ IN SE: “However, with all this reconstruction, Donald Tusk must be aware of one challenge – Civic Platform alone will not be able to achieve a result that guarantees independent rule. If Donald Tusk wants to continue ruling, he must keep at least some of his coalition partners alive.”

— IT SEEMS, HOWEVER, THAT POLSKA 2050 WILL ULTIMATELY MEET THE SAME FATE AS RYSZARD PETRU'S NOWOCZESNA – PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA IN CONVERSATION WITH ZŁOTOWICZ IN SE: “While the leader of the Peasant Party, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, might count on some sympathy from Szymon Hołownia's voters, there will be no reciprocity in terms of the Peasant Party voters' sympathy towards Hołownia. Of course, the Third Way might fall apart or there might be so-called reshuffles, bidding wars. It seems, however, that Polska 2050 will ultimately meet the same fate as Ryszard Petru's Nowoczesna. In fact, Szymon Hołownia's run in this election was supposed to be an attempt to prevent this political catastrophe.”
https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/prof-chwedoruk-i-prof-sadura-komentuja-plan-gospodarczy-premiera-tusk-szuka-nowej-legitymizacji-swoich-rzadow-nastroje-spoleczne-sa-raczej-negatywne-aa-AXnm-tC5M-76Ky.html

— A SURPRISING AGREEMENT HAS BEEN REACHED BETWEEN MENTZEN AND ZANDBERG:

— ZANDBERG: This means that the share of investments in GDP will be meager, lower than in previous years. Government-mem.
https://x.com/ZandbergRAZEM/status/1888936410284990737

— MENTZEN: The 650 billion PLN for investments announced by Tusk for 2025 is less as a percentage of GDP than in 2023. The big breakthrough is that investment spending will be lower, and deregulation ideas are to be invented by Brzoska, because a government of over 100 people has no idea what it's doing. A circus!
https://x.com/SlawomirMentzen/status/1889007109225767054

— TUSK'S TWO BREAKTHROUGHS. THE PRIME MINISTER PRESENTED A VISION OF THE ECONOMY, FORGOT ABOUT THE DETAILS – JOANNA SOLSKA ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “The vision announcing a breakthrough in the Polish economy lacked specifics and commitments regarding the deadlines for implementing its individual stages. It's as if the Prime Minister was more concerned with generating enthusiasm and belief that it would succeed, rather than encouraging us to remember when it would happen.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/2288665,1,dwa-przelomy-tuska-premier-przedstawil-wizje-gospodarki-zapomnial-o-konkretach.read

— FROM THE INFORMATION PRESENTED ON MONDAY, IT IN NO WAY FOLLOWS HOW THE GOVERNMENT'S ACTIONS WILL CHANGE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN ANYWAY, WHICH IS THE REBOUND OF INVESTMENTS – MARCIN MROWIEC, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT GRANT THORNTON ON BUSINESS INSIDER: “It is EU funds that will stimulate Polish investments this year, not the government. We were hoping for bolder ideas to accelerate the Polish economy,” commented Marcin Mrowiec, chief economist at Grant Thornton. He added that from the information presented on Monday, it in no way follows how the government's actions will change what would happen anyway, which is the rebound of investments.”

— GREAT DISSATISFACTION – MROWIEC CONTINUES, QUOTED BY BUSINESS INSIDER: “The title of the Prime Minister's press conference ('Year of Breakthrough') raised expectations high, but the statements and proposals presented during it leave much to be desired. Apart from citing the details of individual programs that are already underway (and their associated amounts), the only concrete was the Prime Minister citing the value of 650-700 billion PLN in investments this year,” reads Marcin Mrowiec's comment.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/z-duzej-chmury-maly-deszcz-przelomu-nie-bedzie-eksperci-komentuja-wystapienie-tuska/txhenwh

— I COMPLAIN THAT DURING THE PRESS CONFERENCE OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER OF FINANCE, MATI STANISZEWSKI, ONE OF THE CREATORS OF THE COMPANY ELEVENLABS, VALUED TODAY AT OVER 3 BILLION DOLLARS, WAS NOT SITTING NEXT TO RAFAŁ BRZOSKA – BOLESŁAW BRECZKO IN GW.

— I COMPLAIN THAT THE PRIME MINISTER TASKED RAFAŁ BRZOSKA WITH THE ISSUE OF DEREGULATION OF ENTERPRISES, BUT DID NOT APPOINT ANYONE TO A PARALLEL POSITION THAT SHOULD FOCUS ON THE DEREGULATION OF SCIENCE – BRECZKO CONTINUES IN GW: “I complain that the Prime Minister tasked Rafał Brzoska with the issue of deregulating enterprises, but did not appoint anyone to a parallel position that should focus on deregulating science (so that the construction of the aforementioned AI centers takes not a year, but half). I complain that I didn't hear more specifics about how Polish AI industry support will look in the coming years, whether another AI computing center will be built, but not one thousand like in Krakow and Poznań, but ten thousand GPUs, or whether the government will support initiatives to build Polish large language models, like Bielik, whose creators are raising funds on Patronite.”
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177150,31680758,rozwoj-polski-powinnismy-mierzyc-indeksem-narzekania-nie-szczescia.html

— TUSK COURTS BUSINESS, DEREGULATION NEEDS TO BE DONE FINALLY. NOT JUST TALKED ABOUT AND PROMISED – EWA SZADKOWSKA IN RZ: “The word deregulation appeared in Donald Tusk's speech, if I counted correctly, 11 times. Although the head of government himself stated that it is time to move from slogans to specifics, these essentially did not come from his lips.”

— TUSK BEAUTIFULLY NEUTRALIZED BRZOSKA – SZADKOWSKA CONTINUES IN RZ: “On this occasion, Donald Tusk beautifully neutralized Brzoska, whose political ambitions have been talked about for a long time, although he himself firmly denies them. The billionaire, instead of building his own support base, will have to, willy-nilly, take on the task of compiling a list of complaints and suggestions from entrepreneurs, if only so that no one can accuse him of not taking advantage of the opportunity and access to the Prime Minister's ear.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art41788171-ewa-szadkowska-pomozecie-pomozemy-czyli-tusk-kokietuje-biznes

— KRZYSZTOF PASZYK IS REPORTEDLY STILL THE MINISTER OF DEVELOPMENT AND TECHNOLOGY – Stan Gry heard in one of the conversations after Brzoska's announcement.

— THE FRESHLY ELECTED PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC BY A MAJORITY OF VOTES HAS A POWERFUL, BRAND NEW DEMOCRATIC MANDATE. WITH ITS HELP, HE CAN BUILD LEVERS THAT WILL FORCE THE GOVERNMENT MAJORITY TO TAKE THE INDICATED ACTIONS – JACEK KARNOWSKI ON WPOLITYCE: “There are voices saying that this is an unrealistic proposal, as it exceeds the head of state's competencies. Those who say so overlook the issue of political dynamics, which matters more than formal regulations. The freshly elected president of the Republic by a majority of votes has a powerful, brand new democratic mandate. With its help, he can build levers that will force the government majority to take the indicated actions. He can refuse cooperation, he can condition his actions on the government's cooperation in areas he specifies. If the majority refuses, it will accelerate its already inevitable downfall. Truly, it takes little imagination to think that a president with a brand new political victory capital will have the same position as a president who is finishing his term.”

— VICTORY IS STILL POSSIBLE, PROVIDED POLES SEE HOPE FOR A BETTER FUTURE. AND THEY WON'T SEE IT IF THE CANDIDATE HAS NOTHING TO OFFER ON FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES – KARNOWSKI ON WPOLITYCE: “The election campaign is not fair. One side has had its money taken away, a prosecutor-court persecution industry has been launched against it, and, as is traditional, a propaganda industry of lies. But victory is still possible, provided Poles see hope for a better future. And they won't see it if the candidate has nothing to offer on fundamental issues, including existential ones.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/720826-propozycja-w-sprawie-cen-pradu-to-strzal-w-dziesiatke

— POLITICAL AGENDA FOR TUESDAY: SIEMONIAK AND TRZASKOWSKI ON CRIME, PIS YOUTH FORUM HAPPENING, AND BŁASZCZAK'S PRESS CONFERENCE, GOVERNMENT SESSION: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/02/11/

— BIRTHDAYS: Beata Kempa, Maciej Sandecki, Jan Krzysztof Ardanowski.


Łukasz Mężyk