state of play: 02/08/2025

STATE OF PLAY: GW: Beavers Will Be Killed After All; Flieger: Confederation is the New Left – An Alternative Urban Choice to KO; Pawłowski: Will KO's "Sloiki" Become Latinos?

Łukasz Mężyk

— TWO YEARS AGO, THERE WOULD BE PHOTOS OF CELEBRITIES WITH BEAVERS:

— BEAVERS PROTECT MILLIONS OF CUBIC METERS OF WATER. BUT IN PODKARPACIE, 555 OF THESE ANIMALS WILL BE KILLED – ANNA GORCZYCA IN GW: “The Regional Environmental Protection Directorate in Rzeszów has issued a permit for the culling of 555 beavers. The damages caused by drought are greater than those caused by beavers – critics say. Andrzej Czech from the State Nature Protection Council reminds: – Beavers protect over 200 million cubic meters of water in their backwaters, and several times more is retained in the soil adjacent to these backwaters. The Natural Heritage Foundation raised an alarm a few days ago: The Regional Environmental Protection Directorate in Rzeszów has accepted the draft ordinance, which provides for the culling of 555 beavers in the Podkarpackie Voivodeship in the coming years. The ordinance was signed by the director of the RDOŚ.”
https://rzeszow.wyborcza.pl/rzeszow/7,34962,31676906,bobry-chronia-miliony-metrow-wody-ale-na-podkarpaciu-bedzie.html

— AT ONE POINT, WE HAD A VERY STRONG CONVICTION THAT ZELENSKYY – AGAINST ALL FACTS – WANTED TO DRAG US INTO WAR AT ALL COSTS – MARIUSZ KAMIŃSKI IN A CONVERSATION WITH MARCIN FIJOŁEK IN DZIENNIK GAZETA PRAWNA: “The Przewodów incident changed a lot, because at one point we had a very strong conviction that Zelenskyy – against the facts – wanted to drag us into war at all costs. This was unforgivable, because no one expected an apology for that Ukrainian missile, we know the realities of war, but not even a gesture towards the victims was made from Kyiv.”

— I HAD EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD RELATIONS WITH CIA DIRECTOR W. BURNS, WE ALSO CONDUCTED SEVERAL JOINT, MODEL INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS TARGETING RUSSIA – KAMIŃSKI FURTHER AT FIJOŁEK IN DGP: “I had exceptionally good relations with CIA Director W. Burns. When he visited this part of the world, he often came to Poland and held two meetings: with the president and with me. The day we called each other when history was unfolding that could have been groundbreaking for the world – I mean Prigozhin's march on Moscow – will certainly remain in my memory. We also conducted several joint, model intelligence operations targeting Russia. But, as you understand, I cannot talk about the details. Just as I cannot talk about relations with our partners from Israeli services, thanks to whom we got out of various crises.”

— IN THE SECOND TERM, TOO MANY PEOPLE WHO WERE SIMPLY UNWORTHY CLUNG TO US – KAMIŃSKI AGAIN AT FIJOŁEK: “Okay, I’ll tell you this: in the second term, too many people who were simply unworthy clung to us. Some of these people were managed to be removed, perhaps more should have been. Please don't press me for names. I’m saying this because only a firm and unwavering stance earns us voters' trust. PiS has a lot of politicians with clean hands and an ideological approach to state affairs.”
https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/wiadomosci/kraj/artykuly/9730711,kaminski-moim-priorytetem-jest-walka-z-tym-rezimem-wywiad.html

— DECLINE OF KO AND PIS, AND A LANDSLIDE INCREASE IN DISSATISFIED VOTERS, CONFEDERATION STABLE, THIRD WAY BELOW THE THRESHOLD – NEW CBOS: https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/flashe_tekst.php?nr=6/2025

— CONFEDERATION IS THE NEW LEFT; IF VOTERS SHIFT AWAY FROM RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI AND KOALICJA OBYWATELSKA, IT WON'T BE TO RAZEM OR NOWA LEWICA, BUT TO KONFEDERACJA AND SŁAWOMIR MENTZEN – ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “If voters shift away from Rafał Trzaskowski and Koalicja Obywatelska, it will be to Konfederacja, not to Razem or Nowa Lewica. This is because Konfederacja caters to their priority economic emotions, identified with the interests of entrepreneurs. And on issues like abortion, they most likely adhere to a “free market” philosophy, meaning the ability to find solutions to any problem without state intervention, but with their own money. Note: In this sense, Konfederacja is the new left – as an alternative urban choice to KO.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41776041-estera-flieger-konfederacja-nowa-lewica

— WILL KO'S "SŁOIKI" TURN OUT TO BE THE LATINOS OF PLATFORMA OBYWATELSKA? – ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI, PRESIDENT OF OGÓLNOPOLSKA GRUPA BADAWCZA, IN CONVERSATION WITH MICHAŁ PŁOCIŃSKI IN RZ: “Could voters who have been a natural constituency for Platforma Obywatelska for years turn away from it? Pawłowski points to a process he compares to the situation of Latinos in the USA. – In my opinion, the Latinos of Platforma could be migratory residents of large cities. I am one such person myself. I’m from Bolesławiec,” he says. These are the so-called "słoiki" (newcomers to big cities), i.e., people who moved to larger centers in search of a better life. If this group eventually decides that they “haven’t received much from this Platform,” and the possibilities for advancement above a certain level are practically blocked for them in the cities – Pawłowski explains – then Polish liberals may be surprised, just as American Democrats were surprised when their hitherto natural electorate, such as Latinos, suddenly shifted a large portion of their votes to Donald Trump.”

— DISAPPOINTMENT AS THE WORD OF THE YEAR – PAWŁOWSKI FURTHER AT PŁOCIŃSKI IN RZ: “– I think ‘disappointment’ is that word,” says Pawłowski. “While there isn’t a specific poll asking ‘are you disappointed?’, it’s visible in the research; it’s a composite of several data points,” he assesses. He points to growing voter dissatisfaction concerning both economic issues and unfulfilled election promises of Donald Tusk’s government. (…) – I think the word ‘disappointment’ will be at the very top of the list of key emotions for 2025,” concludes the interviewee of Michał Płociński.
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41775531-rzecz-w-tym-rozczarowanie-politycznym-slowem-roku

— THE MINISTRY OF DEVELOPMENT HEADED BY KRZYSZTOF PASZYK, WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ECONOMY AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP MATTERS, IS NOT INVOLVED IN THE MATTER – WE HEAR – TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN MONEY.PL: “The details of the initiative that Tusk is organizing in the Warsaw Stock Exchange building are being kept in strict secrecy. – The Ministry of Finance and the Prime Minister's Chancellery are working on it. At one stage, the Ministry of State Assets also became involved. However, Krzysztof Paszyk's Ministry of Development, which is responsible for economy and entrepreneurship matters, is not involved in the matter – we hear.”

— THIS EVENT IS PRIMARILY FOR KOALICJA OBYWATELSKA, NOT THE ENTIRE GOVERNMENT – NOTES SOMEONE FROM LEWICA – FURTHER AT ŻÓŁCIAK IN MONEY.PL: “The aura of secrecy surrounding the preparations is causing coalition partners to distance themselves from the initiative. – This event is primarily for Koalicja Obywatelska, not the entire government – notes someone from Lewica. – I don’t expect a big opening; we have good economic data, which Minister Andrzej Domański talks about constantly, so it will probably be a narrative around that – assesses an interviewee from Polska 2050.”
https://www.money.pl/gielda/tusk-szykuje-plan-gospodarczy-co-w-nim-zawrze-oto-pierwsze-przecieki-7122700439972640a.html

— A SWIFT OPERATION: HOW THE STATE CAUGHT A PENSIONER THREATENING JERZY OWSIK – PAWEŁ FIGURSKI AND PATRYK SŁOWIK IN WP: “The Central Bureau for Combating Cybercrime, high-ranking police officers going to an arrest that failed, a 6 a.m. raid, and a prosecutor acting swiftly. Wirtualna Polska shows how the Polish state apprehended a 66-year-old woman who wrote to the head of WOŚP on Facebook, ‘Die, man.’ (…) At precisely 6:25 a.m., the woman is apprehended. In the report, the officers note that the arrest is related to the fact that ‘there is a risk of tampering and evasion.’ In the same report, the officers note: the woman is a pensioner, 66 years old, according to her statement, she is at risk of stroke and heart attack, and has been diagnosed with breast cancer.”
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/blyskawiczna-akcja-czyli-jak-panstwo-zlapalo-emerytke-grozaca-jerzemu-owsiakowi-7122253198809920a

— THE HEAD OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL, BOGDAN ŚWIĘCZKOWSKI, DECLARED A COUP IN POLAND. BUT HIS ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY STARTED TO BOTHER PIS AND KAROL NAWROCKI'S CAMPAIGN TEAM. THEY DIDN'T HAVE THIS IDEA FOR THE CAMPAIGN – AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW: “First Kaczyński in the Sejm, a few hours later Nawrocki in Bełchatów talks about high prices. – It's expensive, more expensive, and it will be even more expensive – he predicts at a meeting with voters. There are talks of terrifying energy bills. But the president of the Constitutional Tribunal, Bogdan Święczkowski, is diverting attention from prices.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31676718,to-byl-autorski-pomysl-swieczkowskiego-zamach-stanu-wystraszyl.html

— THERE ARE NO TROOPS ON THE STREETS, YET THE PRESIDENT OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL SPEAKS OF A “COUP.” ONE CAN ASK ENDLESSLY WHETHER POLES WILL BELIEVE HIM. HOWEVER, I AM LOOKING FOR AN APPROPRIATE NAME FOR SUCH LAWLESSNESS AS DISREGARDING CT RULINGS. ANY IDEAS? – PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA.

— IT WAS SIKORSKI, THEN A KO MEP, WHO ARGUED ON TWITTER DURING ONE OF THE LEGAL DISPUTES WITH THE PIS GOVERNMENT THAT A COUP IS NOT NECESSARILY BRINGING TROOPS TO THE STREETS, THAT IT CAN BE CARRIED OUT “IN THE PARTY HEADQUARTERS AND IN THE COURTS” – ZAREMBA FURTHER IN INTERIA: “In 2021, it was Radosław Sikorski, then a KO Member of the European Parliament, who argued on Twitter during one of the legal disputes with the PiS government that a coup is not necessarily bringing troops to the streets, that it can be carried out ‘in the party headquarters and in the courts.’ Vigilant netizens immediately reminded him of this. Of course, this is only an argument that the strongest comparisons have been used in Polish politics for years, and that both sides of the political conflict have done so. However, the current authorities are going into territories that the previous authorities, despite all their pushing and shoving, were afraid even to think about.”

— IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PREVIOUS PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY OF PIS MADE A CONSEQUENCE-LADEN MISTAKE BY DISMISSING RECENTLY ELECTED MEMBERS OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL. IF SO, THE CURRENT ONE OUTDOES THEM MANY TIMES OVER IN THE RADICALISM OF ITS IDEAS – ZAREMBA FURTHER IN INTERIA: “It is possible that the previous parliamentary majority of PiS made a consequence-laden mistake by dismissing recently elected members of the CT. If so, the current one outdoes them many times over in the radicalism of its ideas. After all, in 2015, the parliament with a PiS majority could have chosen a different path. To announce that the election of several new judges ‘in reserve’ was grounds for dismissing the entire Tribunal, because it had been ‘infected.’ They didn’t think that they could do that. Tusk, Bodnar, Marshal Hołownia have more vivid imaginations.”

— EITHER THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSED OR A WAR AT THE TOP – ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION IN INTERIA: “After Trzaskowski's victory, we will face the unlawful dismantling of the last institutions not controlled by Tusk and his seizure of full power. The system will close. If Karol Nawrocki wins, we will face a great war at the top. Equally strong words like ‘coup’ will likely be heard.
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-jesli-nie-zamach-stanu-to-co-czy-swieczkowski-przesadza,nId,7908094

— SINGLE MOTHERS IN WARSAW WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF A COMMUNAL APARTMENT – RAFAŁ GÓRSKI IN GW: “This means that if a mother with a child cannot live in a communal apartment of 30 square meters, of which 15 square meters is the living area, then it is impossible. – We have been appealing for years to repeal the area criterion, but the Warsaw City Council is against it – says Żaczek. The effect is that single mothers are condemned to private rentals. – And social services warn them that if they do not resolve their housing situation, proceedings to restrict parental rights will be initiated, because children must have a place to live.”
https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31650440,koszmar-samotnych-matek-jak-wynajac-mieszkanie-z-dzieckiem.html

— BIRTHDAYS: Michał Woś, Janusz Schwertner, Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus, Jan Śpiewak, Daniel Rząsa, Piotr Apel. SUNDAY: Tadeusz Syryjczyk turns 77.


Łukasz Mężyk