state of play: 01/14/2025

POLITICAL GAME: WP on poll: Only 5.2 point difference, Nizinkiewicz: Tusk's government cannot be a millstone around Trzaskowski's neck, Szubartowicz: He must distance himself from the cultural left and detach from power

Łukasz Mężyk

— AT A 6:00 BRIEFING, PRIME MINISTER TUSK "SAID NOTHING". It was about flying to a meeting on combating the Russian shadow fleet, which is waging hybrid warfare against NATO. "Today in Helsinki, I will meet with the NATO Secretary General and the President of Finland. We will discuss practical measures to secure the Baltic Sea against Russian sabotage."

— TUESDAY'S POLITICAL AGENDA: TUSK AT THE BALTIC SEA NATO ALLIES SUMMIT, MORAWIECKI'S CONFERENCE IN BRUSSELS, ANNOUNCEMENT OF A NEW MINISTER OF SCIENCE, SEJM COMMISSION ON ŚWIRSKI, CONFERENCE OF PROSECUTORS – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/14/

— RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI'S LEAD OVER KAROL NAWROCKI IN THE SECOND ROUND IS MELTING AWAY – WP.PL WRITES ABOUT ITS OWN UNITED SURVEYS POLL.

— THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM IS ONLY 5.2 PERCENTAGE POINTS – WP WRITES: "According to the latest United Surveys poll for Wirtualna Polska, Rafał Trzaskowski maintains his leading position in the first round of the presidential elections with 34.2% support. Karol Nawrocki is in second place with 29%. Both candidates have distanced themselves from their other rivals, but the difference between them is only 5.2 percentage points. The Warsaw mayor's ratings have weakened slightly – by 2 percentage points compared to WP's December poll. Sławomir Mentzen is in third place with 13%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to the December survey."

— SHYMON HOŁOWNIA, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS RECORDED A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN SUPPORT. 6.7% of respondents want to vote for the Marshal of the Sejm – in December, 10.2% wanted to vote for him.

— THIS IS, HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT DROP – BY ALMOST 10 PERCENTAGE POINTS – COMPARED TO DECEMBER – WP FURTHER WRITES: "Among voters who intend to vote in the second round, Rafał Trzaskowski can count on 50.3% support. This is, however, a significant drop – by almost 10 percentage points – compared to December. Back then, the Warsaw mayor had as much as 60.1% support among definite voters. Karol Nawrocki, on the other hand, is supported by 44.5% of respondents. This is an increase of 6.1 percentage points compared to the December poll. We also note an increase in undecided voters. Currently, 5.2% of respondents do not know who they would choose."
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/przewaga-trzaskowskiego-topnieje-w-oczach-najnowszy-sondaz-wp-7113876328004320a

— ANOTHER POLL INDICATES A DROP IN SUPPORT FOR RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI – headline on RP.pl.

— I LOVE MY HOMELAND, THE LAW DOES NOT APPLY IN POLAND, AS AN HONORABLE PERSON I CANNOT SHAKE YOUR HAND. PLEASE PROVIDE FACTUAL GROUNDS FOR MY DISMISSAL FROM SERVICE – IN HIS SPEECH, THE OUTGOING COMMANDER OF THE IŁAWA DISTRICT POLICE CRITICALLY ASSESSED THE SITUATION IN THE FORMATION – GAZETA.PL WRITES: "During the official farewell, the outgoing officer critically assessed the situation in the uniformed services. He pointed to, among other things, staff shortages and management problems. – Can the Polish police afford to dismiss a 45-year-old officer overnight and pay him a pension of PLN 10,000 a month? – he wondered."
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114883,31610419,komendant-brutalnie-o-sytuacji-policji-prawo-w-polsce-nie-obowiazuje.html

— GREAT HOPE IN THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY (PIS). "POLLS ARE FAVORABLE FOR US. NORMALITY WILL RETURN" – DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN NEWSWEEK: "For Confederation voters, Nawrocki is acceptable because by voting for him, they won't feel entirely like they are voting for us – a PiS politician explains to 'Newsweek'. – There is a growing conviction in the party that this left-liberal turn was a temporary detour in history, now the pendulum will swing back. Conservative views will cease to be embarrassing soon, and we will return to normality – explains a PiS politician to 'Newsweek'."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/wielka-nadzieja-w-pis-sondaze-sa-dla-nas-korzystne-wroci-normalnosc/90h3w5f,452ad802

— ACCORDING TO PROF. RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK, DESPITE THE DROP IN SUPPORT IN THE LATEST POLL, RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IS STILL ON THE BEST TRACK TO WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS – IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MONIKA WALUŚ ON ONET: "According to prof. Rafał Chwedoruk, despite the drop in support in the latest poll, Rafał Trzaskowski is still on the best track to win the presidential elections. – To win elections, you need to win over centrist voters. Rafał Trzaskowski's advantage in this regard is that the main rival of the Civic Platform (KO) candidate – Karol Nawrocki – is even further from the center than he is – comments the political scientist. He adds that for KO, the head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) is an easier competitor than someone from the right who breaks stereotypes associated with conservatism."

— TRZASKOWSKI CAN SLEEP PEACEFULLY – CHWEDORUK CONTINUES WITH WALUŚ ON ONET: "Karol Nawrocki's campaign so far suggests that Rafał Trzaskowski can sleep peacefully, because the other side is rather thinking about modifying itself and surviving, not winning the presidential race – believes prof. Rafał Chwedoruk, a political scientist from the University of Warsaw."

— ACCORDING TO CHWEDORUK, THE ISSUE OF PARTNERSHIP MARRIAGES IS THE TOPIC THAT THE KO CANDIDATE SHOULD AVOID – WALUŚ WRITES ON ONET: "According to the political scientist, the issue of partnership marriages is the topic that the KO candidate should avoid. – Poles do not fully understand what the introduction of partnership marriages would entail, and for many voters, it is equivalent to same-sex couples adopting children. It is therefore rational to say that he will sign a bill liberalizing the draconian abortion law without hesitation, but he will not necessarily refer to the issue of marital equality. Poles do not like revolutions, neither conservative nor liberal ones – believes prof. Chwedoruk."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/pis-wycofa-kandydata-na-prezydenta-ekspert-o-scenariuszu-ktory-przelamie-logike/m6zymez,79cfc278

— WILL GRZEGORZ BRAUN AND KRZYSZTOF STANOWSKI CAUSE TROUBLE FOR RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI? – JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: "Even one poll showing a drop in support for Rafał Trzaskowski and an increase in Sławomir Mentzen's ratings should be an alarm signal for KO. Even more so are reports of possible candidacies that could strengthen Karol Nawrocki in the second round."

— IT IS ENOUGH FOR BRAUN AND STANOWSKI TO REPEAT AFTER KRZYSZTOF BOSAK: "ANYONE BUT TRZASKOWSKI," AND THE KO CANDIDATE WILL HAVE A PROBLEM IN THE SECOND ROUND. AND TRZASKOWSKI MUST PREPARE FOR THIS – NIZINKIEWICZ CONTINUES: "Anyone who knows the profile of Kanał Zero knows that Stanowski will not endorse Trzaskowski in the second round and will likely do a lot to prevent the Deputy Head of Civic Platform from becoming President of Poland. It is enough for Braun and Stanowski to repeat after Krzysztof Bosak: 'Anyone but Trzaskowski,' and the KO candidate will have a problem in the second round. And Trzaskowski must prepare for this."

— TUSK'S GOVERNMENT CANNOT BE A MILLSTONE AROUND HIS NECK. BUT TRZASKOWSKI CANNOT COUNT ON SUPPORT FROM A GOVERNMENT MAKING UNPOPULAR DECISIONS – NIZINKIEWICZ CONTINUES: "The less elitist and Warszawian, and the more centrist Trzaskowski is, the greater his chances of winning will be. One more condition remains: Tusk's government cannot be a millstone around his neck. But Trzaskowski cannot count on support from a government making unpopular decisions. If, for example, the idea that the government wants to censor the internet reaches Poles, Tusk's gentle breeze will turn into a storm over Trzaskowski. And if the poll drops turn into a trend, the situation for the KO candidate could become heated, and this in the winter."
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41673031-jacek-nizinkiewicz-czy-grzegorz-braun-i-krzysztof-stanowski-narobia-klopotow-rafalowi-trzaskowskiemu

— TRZASKOWSKI MUST DISTANCE HIMSELF FROM THE CULTURAL LEFT AND DETACH FROM POWER – PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: "They are fighting fiercely because they realized that Trzaskowski will want to genuinely distance himself from the government and his parent party, and he does not intend to take responsibility for the failures of the entire government. (...) Some argue that the KO candidate's biggest challenge will be credibility in distancing himself from the radical cultural left, which likes to blackmail the fearful 'liberals' with political correctness, and from the caricaturally progressive Warsaw elite. As well as in adopting a non-leftist agenda on issues of security, border defense, and migration."
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-centrum-uwagi,nId,7890269

— WHAT POLITICIANS OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT SAY ON TVN24 AND WRITE ON TWITTER IS OFTEN ADDRESSED NOT TO ORDINARY PEOPLE, TO THIS OR THAT VOTER GROUP, BUT TO THAT ONE, SINGLE, MOST IMPORTANT EAR. PiS DID THE SAME AND SUFFERED TERRIBLY FOR IT – GRZEGORZ SROCZYŃSKI IN GAZETA.PL: "What politicians of the current government say on TVN24 and write on Twitter is often addressed not to ordinary people, to this or that voter group, but to that one, single, most important ear. PiS did the same and suffered terribly for it – it provoked a complete absence of discussion and an army of yes-men who confirmed the president in his worst mistakes. Currently, Civic Platform is going through a similar process at the speed of a short WKP(b) course."

— WHEN PEOPLE AT MARKETS TALK ABOUT ENERGY PRICES, GOVERNMENT POLITICIANS DELIGHTFULLY TWEET ABOUT "MACIEREWICZ'S DIPLOMATIC CRIME," AS IF THEY WERE RESIDENTS OF SOME ANTI-KACZYŃSKI MARS – SROCZYŃSKI FURTHER IN GAZETA.PL: "This is precisely why, when people at markets are discussing energy prices, government politicians are delightedly tweeting about 'Macierewicz's diplomatic crime,' as if they were residents of some anti-Kaczyński Mars, where everyday problems do not exist, and the local Martian population cheers for accountability and demands the establishment of seventeen new commissions for PiS crimes in thousands of letters."

— IF PLATFORM HAD THE IDEA TOMORROW THAT ALL PI$ MEMBERS SHOULD WEAR YELLOW ARMBANDS, THEY WOULD PROBABLY ALSO FIND A PROFESSOR WITH A BIG NAME WHO WOULD DIRECTLY DERIVE SUCH A THING FROM THE CONSTITUTION "IN AN OBVIOUS WAY" – SROCZYŃSKI FURTHER IN GAZETA.PL: "Our 'experts' and our 'authorities' are not a force mitigating polarization in politics, they are not guardians of the common good, masterminds who rather complicate reality than oversimplify it. Instead, they have become cheap craftsmen who cut countertops with a jigsaw. Professorship in Poland now only engages in a simple dichotomy almost from Orwell: Kaczyński does not print Constitutional Tribunal rulings – bad, Tusk does not print them – good, Kaczyński does not recognize Supreme Court rulings – bad, Tusk does not recognize them – good. If Civic Platform had the idea tomorrow that all PiS members should wear yellow armbands, they would probably also find a professor with a big name who would directly derive such a thing from the constitution 'in an obvious way'. Krzysztof Bosak says that legal elites are currently prostituting themselves, and one has to agree with him."
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31604991,notowania-rzadu-jak-w-koncowce-pis-winny-jest-antykaczyzm-komentarz.html

— "MUNICIPAL ERASMUS". THIS IS HOW MAYORS AND CITY MANAGERS EXCHANGED POSITIONS ON SUPERVISORY BOARDS – MATEUSZ KOKOSZKIEWICZ IN GW: "Mayor of Częstochowa, Krzysztof Matyjaszczyk, in turn, sat on the supervisory board of the Municipal Water and Sewerage Company in Będzin and the Regional Water and Sewerage Company in Zawiercie. And not alone, for example, with the mayor of Siemianowice Śląskie, Rafał Piech. He also worked in Krakow – in the Krakow Municipal Holding. Arkadiusz Chęciński from Sosnowiec, not far from Dąbrowa Górnicza, received positions in the Wrocław zoo (from July 16, 2020, to April 30, 2024), but also in neighboring Dąbrowa Górnicza, where he sat on the municipal water company (from March 12, 2019, to April 11, 2024)."
https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,31553658,samorzadowy-erasmus-oto-jak-prezydenci-i-burmistrzowie.html

— BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Diakonow, Kosma Złotowski.


Łukasz Mężyk