state of play: 01/10/2025

STATE OF PLAY: CBOS Survey: PiS Achieves Best Result Since Elections, Gądek: Will Stanowski Hit Mentzen Like a Truck Hits a Tico? KO Politician on Onet: Hołownia is Already Playing for PiS

Łukasz Mężyk

— THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE. REPUBLIKA OUTPERFORMS TVN24 FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK – WIRTUALNE MEDIA: "Last week, the most popular television program was Polsat's New Year's Eve concert, which beat the events on TVP2 and Republika. Polsat was also the most-watched station of the week. For the first time in history, the Republika channel had a higher market share for the entire week than TVN24".

— REPUBLIKA'S SHARE GREW FROM 4.39% TO 5.80% – WIRTUALNE MEDIA: "During this time, the station broadcast, among other things, the aforementioned New Year's Eve. The channel managed to overtake TVN24, whose share also increased, but less significantly, from 4.61% to 5.20%. The news station TVN Warner Bros. Discovery was previously in fifth place, now it is sixth".
https://www.wirtualnemedia.pl/artykul/polsat-liderem-na-przelomie-roku-republika-wyzej-niz-tvn24

— SUCH BEHAVIOR CLEARLY INDICATES THAT WE SHOULD TALK ABOUT REVOKING THE CONCESSION – MEANWHILE, DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER GAWKOWSKI ON TV REPUBLIKA: "There can be no tolerance for hate. But the consequences should also be severe, certainly in the case of TV Republika – said Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digitization Krzysztof Gawkowski on 'One on One' on TVN24".
https://tvn24.pl/polska/wosp-grozby-wobec-jurka-owsiaka-wicepremier-minister-cyfryzacji-krzysztof-gawkowski-komentuje-st8253594

— SHOULD X BE CLOSED DURING THE CAMPAIGN, OR IS THIS BEYOND OUR CAPABILITIES? – ASKED DOROTA WYSOCKA SCHNEPF ON TVP INFO.
https://x.com/jachcy/status/1877596974733557766

— "BRUSSELS STARTS THE YEAR WITH AN ATTACK ON FREEDOM OF SPEECH." MORAWIECKI ON SERVICE X AND MUSK:
https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/09/bruksela-zaczyna-rok-od-ataku-na-wolnosc-slowa-morawiecki-o-serwisie-x-i-musku/

— CBOS POLL: PIS WITH THE BEST RESULT SINCE THE 2023 ELECTIONS – TITLE IN RZ: "Compared to the previous survey (from December 2-4, 2024), Civic Coalition maintained its result, while PiS gained three percentage points of support, the most of all parties included in the survey. The Confederation also made it to the podium, with 13% of respondents wanting to vote for it – two percentage points more than a month ago. Thus, the Confederation has recovered from the loss it recorded in December".
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41664971-sondaz-pis-i-konfederacja-zyskuja-poparcie

— 46 FOR PIS AND CONFEDERATION: 46 FOR THE CURRENT COALITION:
https://x.com/CBOS_Info/status/1877370239668682817

— "INTERFERENCE IN THE ELECTORAL PROCESS." KALETA ON UKRAINE'S REACTION TO NAWROCKI'S WORDS – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/10/

— WILL STANOWSKI KILL MENTZEN'S DREAMS? "HE WILL HIT HIM LIKE A TRUCK HITS A TICO" – JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: "For Sławomir Mentzen, this is a black scenario, as Stanowski's candidacy could seriously disrupt the race and push the Confederation's candidate to the political sidelines. A person from the Confederation: – If Krzysztof Stanowski runs, he will hit Mentzen like a truck hits a tico. Others confirm: the greatest risk for Sławomir Mentzen is not an internal war with Grzegorz Braun, who himself doesn't know if he will run, but with the creator of Kanał Zero".
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/mentzen-chcial-byc-czarnym-koniem-stanowski-uderzy-w-niego-jak-tir-w-tico/hgfene3,452ad802

— FEAR AND WORRIES ABOUT RAFAL TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN. "I FEAR A REPEAT OF THE KOMOROWSKI SITUATION" – MONIKA WALUŚ ON ONET: "This will be a campaign of emotions, and the result will be razor-thin – Civic Coalition politicians tell us. Although Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign staff assure us that they are full of faith in their candidate's victory, there is no shortage of fear about the results of the May elections within the ranks of the largest party of the ruling coalition. – I fear a repeat of the Komorowski situation, as there are at least three factors that are not in our favor – admits a KO politician".

— HOŁOWNIA IS ALREADY PLAYING FOR PiS, CHOOSING THE 105TH ANNIVERSARY OF JOHN PAUL II'S BIRTH FOR THE ELECTIONS AND ORGANIZING THE SECOND ROUND ON CHILDREN'S DAY – A PO POLITICIAN TELLS WALUŚ ON OFF IN ONET: " – It also doesn't help us that three candidates from the ruling coalition are running in these elections, and it will be difficult to maintain unity in the campaign – adds the politician. In his opinion, the date of the presidential elections is also unfavorable for the KO candidate. – Hołownia is already playing for PiS, choosing the 105th anniversary of John Paul II's birth for the elections and organizing the second round on Children's Day. I have concerns about whether he will support Rafał in the second round – comments the politician".

— UNFORTUNATELY, SUCH EMOTIONS ARE STILL PRESENT IN PEOPLE, AND THIS WILL BE A CAMPAIGN WHERE EMOTIONS WILL DECIDE – SAYS A KO SEJM DEPUTY – WALUŚ CONTINUES ON ONET: " – They say that Rafał Trzaskowski is more recognizable than Karol Nawrocki, but that's not always a good thing. I travel a bit in areas where it has always been difficult for Platforma to get votes. At the marketplaces, people say about Rafał that they don't want the one who "sent the children away," whatever that might mean, or that he "will flood all of Poland with sewage like the Vistula with Czajka." Unfortunately, such emotions are still present in people, and this will be a campaign where emotions will decide – says a KO MP".
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/strach-i-obawy-o-kampanie-rafala-trzaskowskiego-boje-sie-powtorki-z-komorowskim/6vpcq88

— DOMAŃSKI TO MARCINIAK, MARCINIAK TO DOMAŃSKI, AND ELECTIONS ARE AROUND THE CORNER – TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: "The issue of subsidies for the largest opposition party is closely linked to the upcoming elections. The unclear situation regarding the blocked funds for PiS is fertile ground for further electoral disputes. Today, we are heading straight in that direction".
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art41662861-tomasz-pietryga-domanski-do-marciniaka-marciniak-do-domanskiego-a-wybory-za-pasem

— THE PRIORITY IS TO ENSURE GOOD COOPERATION BETWEEN POLAND AND DONALD TRUMP'S USA. EVEN AT THE COST OF HOSTING A PERSON SUSPECTED OF STARVING CIVILIANS AND INTENTIONALLY KILLING THEM – WOJCIECH PIĘCIAK IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY:
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/netanjahu-moze-odwiedzic-oswiecim-ryzykowna-decyzja-polskiego-rzadu

— Duda's Letter Regarding Netanjahu Was an Intrigue Aimed at Tusk. There Will Be Consequences – BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: "Since Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not planning to attend the 80th anniversary of the liberation of KL Auschwitz Birkenau, why did President Duda start demanding that he be provided with security in Poland? To discredit the Polish government in the eyes of Donald Trump's administration? An intrigue against Donald Tusk – that, in my opinion, is the only rational explanation for this unbelievable event that began in the Presidential Palace".

— PRESIDENT DUDA FORCED THE GOVERNMENT TO ADOPT A DOCUMENT THAT VIOLATES INTERNATIONAL LAW – BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI CONTINUES IN GW: "How can Poland demand the arrest of the wanted Vladimir Putin, for whom the ICC ordered an arrest warrant back in 2023, if it refused to arrest Benjamin Netanyahu? How can we demand that the international community pursue and try other Russian war criminals if we ignore the decisions of the established tribunal in another case? What will happen if Putin himself decides to visit KL Auschwitz-Birkenau? He will have a reason – the camp was liberated by Soviet soldiers. Will Duda also demand that he be provided with security?"
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31602384,list-dudy-w-sprawie-netanjahu-byl-intryga-wymierzona-w-tuska.html

— TUSK ACTUALLY SAID SOMETHING ELSE – YESTERDAY IN THE SEJM: – THE PRESIDENT WAS PROBABLY AWARE THAT THE GOVERNMENT WAS PREPARING SUCH STEPS AND, FRANKLY SPEAKING, A DIRECT CONVERSATION WAS ENOUGH TO CONVINCE HIM – SAID THE PRIME MINISTER.
https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/09/prezydent-chyba-byl-swiadomy-tusk-zapowiada-uchwale-ws-przedstawicieli-izraela/

— BIRTHDAYS: Janina Kraus, Jan Polkowski, Grzegorz Wysocki, Jan Zaborowski, Jan Ordyński, Jarosław Pucek, Michał Owczarczak.


Łukasz Mężyk