state of play: 01/08/2025

THE STATE OF PLAY: Szułdrzyński: The attack on Prof. Malicki is an attack on Poland's Eastern policy, I appeal to the government to clarify the matter; Pacewicz: Trzaskowski is now someone between Kosiniak and Kamysz

Łukasz Mężyk

— “SHE WOULD BE A GREAT HEAD OF CHANCELLERY”. MENTZEN NAMES A CANDIDATE – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2025/01/08

— THE ATTACK ON PROF. MALICKI IS A SYMBOLIC ATTACK ON POLAND'S EASTERN POLICY, BOWING TO THE COURAGE OF THE DIRECTOR OF THE EASTERN EUROPEAN STUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WARSAW, I APPEAL TO THE GOVERNMENT TO CLARIFY THIS MATTER – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “If Donald Tusk's government wants to effectively combat Russian and Belarusian influence on Poland's security, it should give the highest priority to the investigation into the attack on Prof. Jan Malicki. Bowing to the courage of the Director of the Eastern European Studies at the University of Warsaw, I appeal to the government to clarify this matter.”

— TO DATE, WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY COMMUNICATION REGARDING THE APPREHENSION OF THE INDIVIDUALS WHO TWICE STRUCK PROF. MALICKI ON THE HEAD WITH A BLUNT OBJECT – SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN RZ: “To date, we have not received any communication regarding the apprehension of the individuals who twice struck Prof. Malicki on the head with a blunt object, evidently to intimidate him (apart from an umbrella, the professor lost nothing else in the attack).”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41650541-michal-szuldrzynski-atak-na-prof-malickiego-to-symboliczny-atak-na-polityke-wschodnia-polski

— HE IS TRANSFORMING INTO A STEADY POLITICIAN OF A PROUD AND SECURE POLAND, AS IF HE WERE SOMEONE BETWEEN KOSINIAK AND KAMYSZ, BUT WILL THE CONVERTED CANDIDATE MAINTAIN HIS BASE'S MOBILIZATION? – PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO.PRESS: “Trzaskowski is transforming from a liberal (by Polish standards) into a steady politician of a proud and secure Poland, as if he were someone between Kosiniak and Kamysz. Poll analysis confirms the effectiveness of this strategy, but will the converted candidate maintain his base's mobilization?”

— TRZASKOWSKI'S CONTINUED RIGHTWARD SHIFT MAY PROVE INEFFECTIVE, AND IN RETURN, IT MAY STRIP THE CANDIDATE OF THE SPONTANEITY AND AUTHENTICITY THAT STILL MATTER IN POLITICS – PACEWICZ CONTINUES IN OKO.PRESS: “Trzaskowski's continued rightward shift may prove ineffective, and in return, it may strip the candidate of the spontaneity and authenticity that still matter in politics, even if it is governed by calculation and poll projections. And here we arrive at the doubts. Voters for the Left or voters for the Third Way, and even some supporters of Civic Platform, when asked who they will vote for in the second round, will instinctively point to Rafał Trzaskowski and declare it sincerely. However, it may turn out that their enthusiasm will wane with each subsequent iteration of the Civic Platform candidate leaning to the right.”

— WHAT CIVIC EDUCATION LESSON IS THE NATIONAL NARRATIVE ON THE SECURITY OF EVERY POLE, WHICH IS MEANT TO ENSURE TIGHT BORDERS AND 5% OF GDP FOR WEAPON PURCHASES, TO BE, FORMATED TO SUIT POLLS? – Pacewicz's conclusion in Oko.
https://oko.press/na-prawa-trzaskowskiego-wpadka-z-identycznymi-spotami-2020-2025-nie-sa-identyczne-w-tym-rzecz

— THE POSITION OF AN ETERNAL LEADER CHASED BY THE PELOTON IS NOT AS COMFORTABLE FOR A CANDIDATE AS IT MIGHT SEEM – JAKUB MAJMUREK IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “The position of an eternal leader chased by the peloton is not as comfortable for a candidate as it might seem. Constant, long-term leads in polls can easily lull their supporters into complacency, convincing them that the race is already decided and there's no need to mobilize for the elections. When the eternal favorite is suddenly overtaken by someone from the chasing pack, it becomes very difficult to reverse that dynamic – as Bronisław Komorowski painfully learned between the first and second rounds of the presidential election a decade ago.”

— WILL THE TOO RAPIDLY EXECUTED “CONSERVATIVE-RURAL TURN” BE PERCEIVED AS INAUTHENTIC AND DISHONEST – JAKUB MAJMUREK WRITES FURTHER IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “It is understandable that the mayor of the capital is looking for voters beyond big cities and the liberal-left electorate. The question is whether he won't overdo it. Will the residents of subsequent districts not consider that Trzaskowski is trying too hard to show he is like them? Will the too rapidly executed “conservative-rural turn” not be perceived as inauthentic and dishonest?”

— THE WORSE THE SOCIAL MOOD IN MAY, THE WORSE THE GOVERNMENT IS RATED, THE MORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BECOME A “MIDTERM ELECTION” FOR TUSK – MAJMUREK CONTINUES: The worse the social mood in May, the worse the government is rated, the more the presidential election will become a “midterm election” for Tusk, and the worse it will be for Trzaskowski's chances. The mayor of Warsaw, of course, has no influence on how the government, which he is not a part of, fulfills its promises, manages the economy, inflation, security challenges, settlements with PiS, or other issues that cause disappointment among various voter groups.”

— THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TRZASKOWSKI, BUT HIS CAMPAIGN MUST BE PERFECT, SUPPORTED BY TUSK'S GOVERNMENT'S ECONOMIC POLICY – MAJMUREK'S CONCLUSION: “In turbulent times, even voters skeptical of the current government may not be delighted by such a prospect [of turmoil]. This is an opportunity for Trzaskowski, but his campaign must be perfect, supported by Tusk's government's economic policy. Nothing can be taken for granted here; victory must be achieved every day.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2284245,1,faworyt-musi-uwazac-piec-wyzwan-i-pulapki-ktore-czyhaja-na-trzaskowskiego.read

— BELVEDERE IS WORTH A MASS. RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI CANNOT BE AN ENEMY OF RELIGION – MAREK MIGALSKI IN RZ: “Looking at Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign team, one gets the impression that it's a group of Mexican revolutionaries who are about to start burning churches, nationalizing monasteries, and repressing nuns and priests. This must change, otherwise PiS will succeed in associating the mayor of Warsaw with the image of an anti-clerical detached from Polish reality.”
https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art41630311-marek-migalski-belweder-wart-jest-mszy-rafal-trzaskowski-nie-moze-byc-wrogiem-religii

— THE EUROPEAN UNION SUMMIT WILL NOT TAKE PLACE IN POLAND DUE TO PIS'S FAULT – JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ IN RZ: “Such a meeting will not take place in Warsaw. Not because Poland is isolated within the European Union, but due to concerns about the EU being entangled in our country's internal affairs. The President of the European Council, António Costa, announced during the gala inaugurating our presidency that the informal summit would take place in early February in Brussels. This decision, made together with our government, allows for an honorable way out of the situation created by the competency law. It states that during the presidency, the president participates in European Council meetings.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art41650391-jacek-czaputowicz-szczyt-unii-europejskiej-nie-odbedzie-sie-w-polsce-z-winy-pis

— THE GOVERNMENT HAS SUCCESSES, BUT DOES NOT BOAST ABOUT THEM – ALEKSANDRA SOBCZAK IN GW: “Appointing a competent spokesperson is an absolute necessity in the new year. The effect of this person's work should be such that every politician in the coalition, if woken up in the middle of the night, should be able to list the government's most important successes. And there are quite a few of them, but somehow it's hard to get them out of the coalition partners for now.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31593392,powazna-niedorobka-rzadu-tuska-brak-rzecznika.html

— IS THE PRESIDENT PLAYING FOR KONFEDERACJA? – JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “People around the president have nothing to look for in PiS, as long as Jarosław Kaczyński makes the decisions for this party. One way to gain influence over this party – even if in the distant future – is therefore Konfederacja's (or PSL's) presence in a coalition with PiS. The president's game – and especially that of his entourage – therefore has a concealed goal far beyond the presidential elections in May. This goal is to strengthen Konfederacja to such an extent that in the coming years, they have a whip over PiS and Jarosław Kaczyński himself.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/andrzej-duda-wcale-nie-chce-wygranej-karola-nawrockiego-gra-o-cos-innego-kulisy/tr80q1k,452ad802

— TO WIN AGAINST NAWROCKI AND THE DUO OF AMERICAN OLIGARCHS STANDING BEHIND HIM – THIS MAY ALREADY BE A MISSION IMPOSSIBLE – PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Until recently, it seemed that this state of powerlessness would only last until July this year, but since Musk intends to promote the leader of a party with German neo-Nazis in its ranks, why wouldn't he promote a former friend of skinheads from the Polish coast? Winning against Nawrocki himself and his PiS staff is, contrary to initial campaign assumptions, no small challenge, because the current head of the IPN seems to be gaining momentum. Winning against Nawrocki and the duo of American oligarchs standing behind him – this may already be a mission impossible.”

— THERE IS NO NEED TO PITY LIBERAL POLITICIANS FROM ACROSS THE WEST; AFTER ALL, NO ONE FORCED THEM TO BE FAILURES – WÓJCIK'S CONCLUSION IN KRYTYKA: “There is no need to pity liberal politicians from across the West; after all, no one forced them to be failures. It's just a shame that all those who don't see a right-wing reality outside their windows on a daily basis will pay for their mistakes and mediocrity.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/swiat/kto-powstrzyma-altprawicowa-miedzynarodowke-trumpa-i-muska/

— THE HEAD OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE WILL LIKELY RELY ON THE PKW RESOLUTION FROM AUGUST, WHICH REDUCED THE SUBSIDY FROM PLN 26 MILLION ANNUALLY TO SLIGHTLY OVER PLN 15 MILLION ANNUALLY – GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN MONEY.PL: “The Head of the Ministry of Finance will likely rely on the PKW resolution from August, which reduced the subsidy from PLN 26 million annually to slightly over PLN 15 million annually, and presumably, this is how much can flow into PiS's accounts. Although, as we wrote above, there are voices within Civic Coalition suggesting that the transfers should be halted altogether.”
https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/co-zdecyduje-domanski-w-sprawie-pis-znamy-przecieki-z-koalicji-7111742101932768a.html

— PRICES HAVE STALLED, A COLLAPSE IN MORTGAGES. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AHEAD FOR THE HOUSING MARKET – PATRYK SKRZAT IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “According to data from the Credit Information Bureau (BIK), December was the second consecutive month of decline in the number of people seeking mortgage loans. Only 26,000 people submitted applications to banks, which is over 3% less than in November, which saw a more than 20% drop compared to October. Furthermore, November brought a collapse in the number of granted loans. The data shows that approximately 15.7 thousand households planning to buy a flat received a positive decision from the bank. This is a result of over 10% worse than in October.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/nieruchomosci/ceny-sie-zatrzymaly-w-kredytach-tapniecie-duza-niepewnosc-przed-mieszkaniowka-analiza/8q2lycb

— THE DECLINE IN APARTMENT SALES IN 2024, ALTHOUGH NOTICEABLE, WAS NOT A SURPRISE, BUT A NATURAL EFFECT OF REDUCED SYSTEMIC SUPPORT AND A MORE DIFFICULT ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT – NOTES MARCIN KRASOŃ, QUOTED BY JUSTYNA SOBOLAK IN GW:
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147758,31593392,obnizki-cen-mieszkan-powoli-staja-sie-faktem-rynek-jest-w.html

— YOU WILL SIT: PUBLIC OPINION DETERMINES WHETHER A LAW HAS BEEN VIOLATED DEPENDING ON THE BELIEFS OF THE PERSON WHO WOULD HAVE COMMITTED THE VIOLATION – JACEK DUBOIS IN RZ: “We are capable of accepting even the greatest scoundrel if they claim to believe in the same deities as us, and we can smear anyone through the mud regardless of who they are, if they think differently. Even an actor, singer, or athlete, if they express an opinion we disagree with, turns from an idol into an enemy.”
https://www.rp.pl/rzecz-o-prawie/art41653651-jacek-dubois-bedziesz-siedzial

— BIRTHDAYS: Agnieszka Pomaska.


Łukasz Mężyk