state of play: 12/11/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Janicki: For now, Tusk is managing to maintain the impression that this year is just a prelude, a pilot episode; Beylin: Hołownia's actions are senseless because they are dictated by despair
-- HE WAS CALLED "TRUMP ON STEROIDS". THE ARGENTINE PRESIDENT'S SHOCK THERAPY IS BRINGING RESULTS - KAROLINA CHOJNACKA IN GW: “Javier Milei has implemented a program of drastic cuts in public spending and subsidies for the crisis-ridden economy. To begin with, he announced a 55% devaluation of the peso against the dollar, reduced the number of ministries from 18 to nine, laid off hundreds of thousands of administration employees, halted budget transfers to the provinces, suspended all paid state advertisements, and drastically cut subsidies for transport, gas, and electricity prices.”
-- MILEI HOPES TO BENEFIT FROM HIS GROWING ACQUAINTANCE WITH DONALD TRUMP AND ELON MUSK - CHOJNACKA FURTHER IN GW: “Milei hopes to benefit from his growing acquaintance with Donald Trump and Elon Musk, with whom he spent time at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida last month. Milei claims that his brutal cost-cutting has inspired Trump and Musk to create a so-called government efficiency department.”
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,177151,31532091,mowiono-o-nim-trump-na-sterydach-terapia-szokowa-prezydenta.html
-- IN ARGENTINA, SUCCESS FOR NOW - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “The situation in Argentina is worth following, as it may serve as an example for countries where a policy of handouts has been pursued for years, leading to uncontrolled growth of public debt, inflation, and stagnation. Argentina shows that only a hopeless economic situation, resulting in deepening poverty, can compel voters to accept a difficult program of market reforms.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31527943,okiem-liberala-w-argentynie-na-razie-sukces.html
-- HOW THE PRESIDENTS OF TYCHY AND WROCŁAW MADE MONEY OFF EACH OTHER. "BECAUSE WE WERE GETTING AS MUCH AS A FORKLIFT OPERATOR" - MAGDALENA KOZIOŁ IN GW: “'Wyborcza' has established why Jacek Sutryk has an MBA diploma from Collegium Humanum with a different date than other students in his year. Because he needed it earlier to be appointed to the supervisory board of the waterworks in Tychy by its then-president, who in return received a seat on the supervisory board of the Wrocław Stadium.”
https://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,31520743,rada-nadzorcza-dla-jacka-sutryka-tydzien-po-dyplomie-collegium.html
-- THE NEW YEAR WILL GREET US WITH A WAVE OF PRICE HIKES - MATEUSZ MADEJSKI IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “It is known that as of January 1, property tax will increase in several cities – for example, in Łódź, Katowice, or Gdańsk. Residents of some cities must also brace for increases in waste disposal fees or parking charges – according to a summary prepared by Business Insider Polska. In Poznań and Szczecin, residents will face as many as three price hikes next year.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/poradnik-finansowy/nowy-rok-przywita-nas-fala-podwyzek-oto-liderzy-mapa/8pse399
-- THE GOVERNMENT SACRIFICED THE BUG RIVER FOR POLITICS. THE DESTRUCTION OF THE RIVER'S WILD BANK IS UNDERWAY - REGINA SKIBIŃSKA AND WOJCIECH KOŚĆ IN OKO.PRESS: “Hundreds of thousands of trees have been cut down along the entire stretch of the Bug River bordering Belarus. This is intended to prevent migrants from entering Poland through the river. However, this is not an easy route, and migrants usually choose other paths.”
-- THEY SENT US IDENTICAL ANSWERS, REMINISCENT OF THE "MESSAGE OF THE DAY" THAT THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY ONCE MOCKED - FURTHER AUTHORS OF OKO.PRESS: “It is hard to shake the impression that the work on the Bug River is an inconvenient topic for the institutions and services responsible for environmental protection in Poland. The Ministry of Climate and Environment, the General Directorate for Environmental Protection, and the Regional Directorate for Environmental Protection in Lublin have sent us identical responses, reminiscent of the 'message of the day' that the Law and Justice party once mocked by the opposition.”
https://oko.press/rzad-poswiecil-bug-dla-polityki-trwa-niszczenie-dzikiego-brzegu-rzeki-zdjecia
-- 170 KM OF CLEARING ALONG THE BUG. "THERE WAS NO SUCH SLAUGHTER EVEN UNDER THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY" - ONET:
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/smoglabpl/170-km-wycinek-nad-bugiem-takiej-rzezi-nie-bylo-nawet-za-pis/fsfjdgz,30bc1058
-- "GIERTYCH WOULD BE A BETTER MINISTER OF JUSTICE". BODNAR RESPONDS TO WRZOSEK'S WORDS: "THERE ARE RULES OF LOYALTY FOR ME IN PROFESSIONAL RELATIONS" - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/12/11/
-- IT WAS NOT A GOVERNMENT OF FREEDOM, WITH GRANDEUR, WITH A GRAND VISION, BUT RATHER WITH THE BRAKE APPLIED. TUSK THEREFORE IMPLEMENTED, FOR THIS TRANSITIONAL PERIOD UNTIL THE ELECTION, HIS KNOWN METHOD OF REACTING TO DAILY CHALLENGES IN A REASONABLY SPECTACULAR MANNER - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “In the shadow of the presidential race, the first anniversary of Donald Tusk's government arrived, and it was on Friday the 13th (this team clearly has bad luck with dates). This year indeed passed in the shadow of the presidency – on one hand, legislative blocks from Andrzej Duda, and on the other, the upcoming presidential elections. Therefore, it was not a government of freedom, with grandeur, with a grand vision, but rather with the brake applied. Tusk therefore implemented, for this transitional period until the election, his known method of reacting to daily challenges in a reasonably spectacular manner. Without showing any major original programs for now, as they would likely be vetoed by Duda anyway.”
-- THE RATINGS OF THE GOVERNMENT AND THE CIVIC COALITION (KO) ARE EXACTLY AT THE SAME LEVEL – AROUND 34%, SO THIS IS A PLATFORM GOVERNMENT, OTHER ELECTORATES DO NOT FEEL PARTICULARLY CONNECTED TO IT, WHICH SHOULD GIVE TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN STAFFERS FOOD FOR THOUGHT - MARIUSZ JANICKI FURTHER: “However, on the other hand, significant wage increases for the public sector (report on wages by Joanna Solska), extensions of anti-inflation shields, the so-called 'babciowe' (granny's pension), widow's pension, and other new benefits, although not particularly loud in the media, may contribute to Civic Coalition still being in first place in party rankings. The fact is that the ratings of the government and KO are exactly at the same level – around 34%, so this is a Platform government, and other electorates do not feel particularly connected to it, which should give Trzaskowski's campaign staff food for thought.”
-- FOR NOW, TUSK IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN THE IMPRESSION THAT THIS YEAR IS JUST A PRELUDE, A PILOT EPISODE - MARIUSZ JANICKI FURTHER IN POLITYKA: “For now, Tusk is managing to maintain the impression that this year is just a prelude, a pilot episode, and that the time for the triumphant anti-PiS finale, including accountability (more on this in the article 'Rozliczanie rozliczeń' – Settling the Score), will come after the presidential elections. Much indicates that these elections will be a plebiscite on Tusk's government, and the underlying question in the May election will be: 'Do you want PiS to return to power?' In this sense, Tusk is organizing Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign, and the success of the KO candidate depends on the quality of his government.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2281451,1,spektakl-musi-trwac-juz-widac-jak-trudna-to-bedzie-batalia.read
-- POLLS SHOW THAT KAROL NAWROCKI KNOWS WHAT HE IS DOING BY CARRYING A REFRIGERATOR - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Perhaps carrying a refrigerator, running in the park, or lifting weights are not the key competencies of a president, but those who mock the election campaign of the head of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) must remember that he who laughs last, laughs best. And it really doesn't have to be Rafał Trzaskowski.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art41562311-artur-bartkiewicz-sondaze-pokazuja-ze-karol-nawrocki-wie-co-robi-noszac-lodowke
-- AS INTERIA HAS LEARNED, THE BREAKTHROUGH WAS ACHIEVED BY MARIUSZ BŁASZCZAK AND PAWEŁ SZEFERNAKER, THE CAMPAIGN MANAGER FOR KAROL NAWROCKI - JAKUB SZCZEPAŃSKI IN INTERIA: “In just a few days, the party leader's first post has gained nearly 2 million views. That's as much as Donald Tusk's most popular posts, and he's had an account for several years. Moreover, the PiS leader's activity was so prominent that the Prime Minister even challenged him on X. 'It's better to post one sensible message a day than a dozen nonsensical ones. But don't give up,' the head of government advised his colleague. However, he had to wait until the traditional press conference of the PiS leader for a response.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-wiemy-dlaczego-prezes-zdecydowal-sie-na-x-ujawniamy-kulisy,nId,7872827
-- THE ARGUMENTS WERE THAT THE STRENGTH AND REACH OF THE PIIS LEADER'S WORDS – ESPECIALLY AT THE BEGINNING OF HIS ACTIVITY ON TWITTER, WHEN THERE WILL BE MEDIA INTEREST IN HIS VERY PRESENCE ON THIS PLATFORM – WILL BE VERY GREAT, AND THE CONVENTION CAN BE OVERSHADOWED - JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “The head of the PiS and Karol Nawrocki election campaign, Paweł Szefernaker, who has often been involved in online campaigning in previous campaigns, strongly urged him. The arguments were that the strength and reach of the PiS leader's words – and especially at the beginning of his activity on Twitter, when there will be media interest in his very presence on this platform – will be very great, and the convention can be overshadowed. The key argument was: 'It's free.' A person from PiS: – The decisive factor was that the impact of Jarosław Kaczyński's profile will be enormous. Party profiles do not have such power. – This power has always been enormous, but only now has the leader decided to use it – I counter. – But now the situation is different than ever before. – Meaning? – We are in deep trouble when it comes to campaign money. Now any idea that costs nothing is valuable – he says.”
-- MOREOVER, THE PARTY HEADQUARTERS HAS TURNED THE SIMPLE LAUNCH OF A PROFILE ON X INTO A MAJOR EVENT - GĄDEK FURTHER: “Moreover, the party headquarters has turned the simple launch of a profile on X into a major event. – We expected that there would be those who would question the authenticity of the posts and say that the leader himself is not their author. So, we made a 'boom!', because there is a video in which Jarosław Kaczyński says that what Rafał Trzaskowski is saying is 'a big sham,' and then such a tweet lands on X.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/jaroslaw-kaczynski-nie-chcial-ale-musial-wszystko-przez-brak-pieniedzy/204gz26,452ad802
-- THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY'S ONLINE CAMPAIGN HAS GAINED SUCH MOMENTUM THAT THE MOST IMPORTANT, AND AT THE SAME TIME THE MOST MODEST TWITTER USER TO DATE, HAS BEEN ENGAGED IN ACTIVITY - MICHAŁ TOMASIK ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA'S PORTAL: “‘Welcome warmly!’ – reads the first post published on the official account of PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński on the X service. The circumstances of the account's creation were captured in a video published on the Law and Justice profile. A smiling leader watches the Civic Platform convention in the company of Joachim Brudziński, Mariusz Błaszczak, and Radosław Fogiel, who listens and posts the leader's comments (this resembles a meme from years ago). Kaczyński sighs at Prime Minister Donald Tusk's words: ‘as before,’ ‘a big sham,’ ‘fear has big eyes, even wolf eyes.’ At one point, he also receives a phone call: – Thank you for the heart. My niece – he explains. When Tusk praises Rafał Trzaskowski, he admits: – I am truly touched.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2281617,1,karol-nawrocki-2025-swoj-chlop-z-pis-podbija-internet.read
-- "I WOULD NOT RUN IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IF I THOUGHT RAFAL TRZASKOWSKI WAS THE BEST SOLUTION. A SIGNIFICANT PART OF POLAND TODAY ASSOCIATES HIM WITH A LEFTWARD TURN, AND THE PRESIDENT SHOULD BE SOMEONE FROM THE CENTER" – SZYMON HOŁOWNIA TELLS JACIEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “I would not run if I thought this was the best solution. Rafał is a patriot, a good local government official, but he is the vice-chairman of Civic Platform and has his chairman, whom he will have to listen to. Secondly, a significant part of Poland today associates him with a leftward turn. I believe the president should be someone from the center; that's where most of us are today.”
-- DONALD TUSK'S CANDIDATE WITH HIS CURRENT, STRONGLY LEFT-WING PROFILE, WILL NOT HAVE AN EASY TIME WITH THE NEW AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION - HOŁOWNIA FURTHER AT NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Donald Tusk's candidate with his current, strongly left-wing profile, will not have an easy time with the new American administration. Jarosław Kaczyński's candidate, on the other hand, is the thousand and first installment of this camp's fight against the European Union and Brussels, which is infatuated with Orbán. We must be assertive with the EU, but we are the EU. The opponent is elsewhere today.”
-- "I DON'T SEE ANY OTHER LEADER OF THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION THAN TUSK TODAY" - HOŁOWNIA FURTHER AT NIZNKIEWICZ: “We talk often. At the parliamentary and government level – I don't see any other leader of the October 15 coalition today than Tusk. We can and do differ on many things, but only he is capable of keeping this government cohesive.”
-- HOŁOWNIA "DOES NOT ANTICIPATE" GOVERNMENT RECONSTRUCTION - STILL IN RZ: “I do not anticipate a government reconstruction before the presidential elections. I do not doubt Minister Bodnar's competence or good intentions. But something seems to be getting bogged down at a lower level. Immunity requests are trickling in instead of flowing in a wide stream. We don't hear about indictments even in cases where the Sejm has already lifted immunity. Did we accuse all of them seriously or jokingly as the opposition? Things are moving too slowly.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41563861-szymon-holownia-nie-wskaze-w-drugiej-turze-wyborow-na-karola-nawrockiego
-- SZYMON HOŁOWNIA'S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN HAS SO FAR BEEN PRIMARILY BASED ON UNDERCUTTING CIVIC COALITION (KO) AND RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI. AS IF A COALITION PARTNER WAS NO LESS HARMFUL THAN THE LAW AND JUSTICE PARTY (PiS), AND THE DEMOCRATIC CAMP HAS BECOME MERELY A USELESS RHETORICAL FIGURE RATHER THAN A REAL ENTITY - MAREK BEYLIN IN GW.
-- HOŁOWNIA IS GAMBLING ON HIS ENTIRE FUTURE, BUT IT IS SENSELESS ACTIVITY, DICTATED BY DESPAIR - MAREK BEYLIN FURTHER IN GW: “I see a certain rationality in Hołownia's actions, of course. Because he is in a desperate situation. Contrary to his boastful announcements, he is not fighting to get into the second round, but for third place in this race, ahead of Konfederacja and Lewica. And if, as is probable, one of these parties overtakes him, he will suffer a humiliating defeat. Hołownia is therefore gambling on his entire future, but it is senseless activity, dictated by despair.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31532038,kampania-holowni-czy-rzeczywiscie-prezydentura-jest-wazniejsza.html
-- IN THE SECOND ROUND, IT WILL BE "RAZOR THIN" - JACEK GĄDEK ON THE MOOD IN THE KO CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS: “This does not mean, however, that the KO candidate's campaign staff are underestimating their opponent. The poll picture is no longer so favorable for Trzaskowski if he were to face Nawrocki in the second round. According to the cited research, the PiS candidate is already attracting more than just the party's electorate, as he is drawing almost all Konfederacja voters who have already encountered him (and half of those voting for 'Konfa' know him). – The difference in the second round will be razor thin. A small majority will decide. We expect this already today – emphasizes a source close to Trzaskowski.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/nawrocki-w-gore-doceniamy-go-ale-krowa-z-tabliczka-pis-tez-by-tyle-miala/94238z6
-- BIRTHDAYS: Dominika Wielowieyska, Paweł Olszewski, Eleonora Zielińska, Sławomir Nowak.
live
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