state of play: 12/10/2024

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Google's Quantum Breakthrough to Aid New Drug Discovery, Musk's "Wow!", EU Regulations Push ChatGPT Out of Orbit, Stankiewicz: TVN's Fate Sealed

Łukasz Mężyk

-- INTEREST RATES? GRZEGORZ DYNDAŁO, YOU WANTED THIS YOURSELF - JANUSZ JANKOWIAK IN RZ: “With his clumsy decisions regarding energy prices, which bear the hallmarks of political maneuvering, the government has enabled the NBP president to neatly join the game.” -- GLAPIŃSKI HAS ARGUMENTS - JANKOWIAK CONTINUES IN RZ: “Glapiński has arguments stemming from a balance of risks, improved after the government's unfortunate decision on how to withdraw from administrative energy price decisions. And that makes a big difference.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art41558591-janusz-jankowiak-stopy-procentowe-sam-tego-chciales-grzegorzu-dyndalo -- CURRENT NBP PRESIDENT ADAM GLAPIŃSKI IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL BANK'S PARTISANSHIP AND THE UNPRECEDENTED INFLATION SURGE BETWEEN 2020-2023, BUT NOT FOR THE RECORD PRICE OF BUTTER - KRZYSZTOF ADAM KOWALCZYK IN RZ. https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art41557661-krzysztof-adam-kowalczyk-brak-masla-wsrod-wielu-grzechow-glapinskiego -- MARSHAL HOŁOWNIA TRIED TO SHOW OFF TO A YOUNG PERSON WHEN HE ASKED A QUESTION, AND IT DIDN'T GO WELL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=VeRjwTCv1ZU -- PIS GAINS 5.2 P.P. IN THE IBRIS POLL FOR RZ, KO GROWS BY 3.2: PIS 34.8, KO 34.2, 3D 8.6 (-1.2), LEWICA 7.4 (-1.2), KONF 7.3 (-2.1), RAZEM 0.8. The poll was conducted: 06-07.12.2024. https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41557391-nowy-sondaz-pis-zyskuje-najwiecej-i-wysuwa-sie-na-czolo -- DIFFERENTLY (ALTHOUGH THE IBRIS POLL IS NEWER, FROM THE WEEKEND) IN THE OPINIA24 POLL FOR GW: KO LEADS, STRONG CONFEDERATION - AS AGNIESZKA KUBLIK WRITES: “KO leads with 32.1% support. PiS is breathing down its neck with a rating of 29.2%. Compared to the November poll by this firm, the changes are insignificant - KO lost 1.9 percentage points, and PiS less than 1 percentage point. Confederation secures third place - 13.7% (13% a month ago). Trzecia Droga remains fourth - 9.9%. It recorded the largest increase of all - by 2.1 percentage points, although this is a change within the margin of error. Lewica has 6.7% support (8.2% a month ago). And this is the group's weakest result since last year's parliamentary elections. But it's worth remembering that a split occurred recently, and the Razem party must now be counted separately. Razem has 2.5% support.” 03-06.12.2024 https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31530552,nowy-sondaz-opinia24-na-podium-bez-zmian.html -- TRZASKOWSKI DROPS 4 P.P. TO 46%, NAWROCKI RISES 10 P.P. TO 34% - CBOS FLASH: “Compared to the November survey, support for Rafał Trzaskowski decreased slightly (by 4 percentage points), and the percentage of people intending to vote for Karol Nawrocki increased by 10 points. In both surveys, a similar number of respondents declared they would not vote for either of them (18% and 17% respectively). In December, the proportion of undecided respondents decreased (from 8% in November to 3% currently).” -- VOTERS OF TRZECIA DROGA FOR TRZASKOWSKI, HALF OF CONFEDERATION VOTERS FOR NAWROCKI - FURTHER IN THE CBOS RELEASE: “Supporters of Trzecia Droga would much more readily choose Rafał Trzaskowski (80%) than Karol Nawrocki (5%), and 14% of them declare they would not vote for either candidate. An even higher percentage indicating this answer is among supporters of Konfederacja (40%), but every second person surveyed in this group would vote for Karol Nawrocki (50%). Respondents who are undecided about which party they would support in the Sejm elections would be more inclined to vote in the second round of the presidential election for the Civic Coalition candidate (45%) than for the one supported by Law and Justice (23%), and almost one in five of them (17%) have no opinion on this matter.” -- CBOS Survey 02-04.12.2024 https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/flashe_tekst.php?nr=53/2024 -- TRZASKOWSKI 36.9 (-3.5), NAWROCKI 30.30 (+5.8), HOŁOWNIA 7.9 (-1.3), MENTZEN 7.3 (-3.4), BIEJAT 4.8 - ACCORDING TO THE LATEST UNITED SURVEYS POLL FOR WIRTUALNA POLSKA, CONDUCTED ON DECEMBER 6-8: “Rafał Trzaskowski can expect the best result in the first round of the presidential elections. 36.9% of respondents want to vote for the current mayor of Warsaw. However, this is a drop of 3.5 percentage points compared to the previous poll (conducted on November 22-24). In contrast, Karol Nawrocki, supported by PiS, can count on 30.3% of the votes. The president of the Institute of National Remembrance has thus recorded an increase in support of as much as 5.8 percentage points. Sejm Marshal Szymon Hołownia would also find himself on the podium with a result of 7.9% (a drop of 1.3 percentage points).” -- 50 TO 41 IN A HYPOTHETICAL SECOND ROUND - FURTHER IN THE US POLL FOR WP: “These results would guarantee a second round, in which Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki would face each other. According to the poll for Wirtualna Polska, Trzaskowski has the greatest chance of becoming president, with 50.3% of respondents declaring their intention to vote for him in the second round. 41.2% want to vote for Karol Nawrocki.” https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/karol-nawrocki-goni-rafala-trzaskowskiego-najnowszy-sondaz-7101507539294880a -- CONTINUING DECLINE IN GOVERNMENT RATINGS - CBOS: “The percentage of critical votes has increased, and opinions about the government have once again slightly worsened. Negative assessments clearly prevail in all dimensions.” https://cbos.pl/PL/publikacje/raporty_tekst.php?id=6928 -- KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ: TUSK UNNECESSARILY ATTACKS HOŁOWNIA - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/12/10/ -- GOOGLE: WE'VE GOT IT! THE NEW QUANTUM PROCESSOR "WILLOW" BREAKS BOUNDARIES - PIOTR CIEŚLIŃSKI IN GW: “Quantum processors will therefore help in the creation of new drugs or materials for more efficient solar cells or higher-capacity batteries.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75400,31530620,google-mamy-to-nowy-procesor-kwantowy-willow-przekracza-granice.html -- ELON MUSK ON X: Wow! -- DUE TO EXCESSIVE REGULATIONS, AI CHATBOT BYPASSES THE EU - MICHAŁ DUSZCZYK IN RZ: “EU regulations apparently do not favor companies that create generative artificial intelligence systems. OpenAI, which previously gained fame with its ChatGPT, has updated the list of countries that will receive access to its innovative AI model – Sora. The list includes several dozen countries, even some as exotic as Angola or Afghanistan. However, representatives of the EU, including Poland, are missing. It is not yet known whether Sam Altman's company is adapting its latest AI model to EU requirements, or whether countries on our continent have fallen out of the giant's orbit of interest due to regulations.” -- THIS WOULD BE EXTREMELY BAD NEWS – THE LAG IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW AI TECHNOLOGIES ON THE OLD CONTINENT, COMPARED TO THE USA OR CHINA, IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANT, and now this gap would widen even further. Especially since Sora is as groundbreaking a model as ChatGPT” - RZ CONTINUES. https://cyfrowa.rp.pl/globalne-interesy/art41559281-polska-pomijana-przez-giganta-ai-ten-bot-tworzy-wideo-na-podstawie-polecen-tekstem -- ACCORDING TO ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ, TVN'S FATE IS SEALED: “Andrzej Stankiewicz recalls that there were two options on the table regarding the takeover of TVN. — The first is the purchase by the Czech billionaire Ms. Renata Kellnerová, the widow of the richest Czech. Her investment fund is currently invested, for example, in Rafał Brzoska's InPost. The second solution is the Hungarian television TV2, which is linked to Viktor Orbán. What we are hearing is some kind of mix of these solutions. The public will find out in the coming days because there is a strong indication that this transaction has already been agreed upon. There is great joy among some Law and Justice politicians,” reveals Andrzej Stankiewicz.” -- THE GOVERNMENT WILL REACT AND PROHIBIT TVN BROADCASTING - DZIUBKA SAYS IN RASPI'S SPECIAL EDITION: “Kamil Dziubka also confirms that the most likely version of the TVN purchase is the Czech-Hungarian option. He wonders how the Polish government will react to this move. - The government has certain tools, although they are ultimate tools. We heard such a version from very high-ranking members of the ruling camp that if it turns out that Russian or Chinese capital, for example, stands behind Hungarian capital, then the government may invoke state security and, as a last resort, not allow broadcasting,” says Dziubka.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/wydanie-specjalne-stanu-wyjatkowego-ujawniamy-losy-tvn-u-sa-juz-przesadzone-duza/4ychbyj,79cfc278 -- ZYGMUNT SOLORZ'S DEFEAT IN THE CLASH WITH HIS CHILDREN. THE COURT BLOCKED HIS ASSETS - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON ONEt: “Zygmunt Solorz and his wife Justyna Kulka have lost the battle for control over the business empire built around Polsat. As Onet has learned, a court in Liechtenstein has appointed a curator to the key foundations controlling the family's assets to prevent Solorz and Kulka from disinheriting the billionaire's children from his previous marriages. From this moment on, Solorz and Kulka will not be able to independently make key decisions within the Polsat Group.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/porazka-solorza-w-starciu-z-dziecmi-sad-zablokowal-jego-majatek/nv6bbxh,79cfc278 -- WALENDZIAK WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EDITORIAL AND PROGRAMMATIC MATTERS. THIS WAS INTERPRETED AS A GESTURE TOWARDS THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT, BECAUSE WALENDZIAK IS IN OPPOSITION TO PIS AND HAS GOOD RELATIONS WITH DONALD TUSK'S TRI-CITY CIRCLE - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK AND WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI IN GW: “It is unknown in which direction Polsat will go. At the end of October, Wiesław Walendziak, a former conservative politician long associated with Solorz, was appointed to the management board of Telewizja Polsat. Walendziak will be responsible for editorial and programmatic matters. This was interpreted as a gesture towards the current government, as Walendziak is in opposition to PiS and has good relations with Donald Tusk's tri-city circle. Walendziak has already significantly limited the influence of the station's former editor-in-chief, Dorota Gawryluk.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31530835,kurator-u-solorza-miliarder-nie-moze-sam-decydowac-o-majatku.html -- PMM OFFERED CONDOLENCES TO KRZYSZTOF BOSAK: Mr. Marshal, please accept my sincere condolences and regrets on the death of your father. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your loved ones today. https://x.com/MorawieckiM/status/1866209186972942804 -- 17TH ANNIVERSARY OF BELSAT. -- BIRTHDAYS: Aleksander Smolar (84).

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