state of play: 11/26/2024

THE STATE OF PLAY: Sikorski: Trzaskowski will win easily, Kamiński: I will urge my PSL colleagues to join Hołownia's campaign as soon as possible

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PROF. ANDRZEJ RZEPLIŃSKI TURNS 75 TODAY. -- NEW CIRCUMSTANCES SURROUNDING THE DEATH OF A POLICE OFFICER IN PRAGA: THERE WAS NO MACHETE - JAKUB CHEŁMIŃSKI IN GW: “He went on patrol, although beginners should normally ride along for training with experienced officers whom they can observe in their work. In this case, this was waived due to staffing shortages. (...) However, we managed to confirm that there was no machete on the day of the tragedy, even though Prime Minister Donald Tusk himself called the perpetrator of the entire intervention a 'machete-wielding bandit'. The aggressor had reportedly been walking around the neighborhood with this tool earlier, but not on Saturday. A volunteer from the Praga Station denies that the aggressor was armed.” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,31491871,po-smierci-policjanta-na-pradze-nie-bylo-zadnej-maczety-zginal.html -- “I SEE MEANING IN THIS”. KORNELUK ON THE RE-ARREST OF ROMANOWSKI - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/11/26/ -- “I WOULDN'T PREJUDGE ANYTHING FROM THE OUTSET, NEITHER WAY. I BELIEVE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ARE THE MOST UNPREDICTABLE – PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN CONVERSATION WITH PIOTR OLEJARCZYK ON ONET: “The historian believes that 'today we are in the same situation as Andrzej Duda was in November 2014.' — He also had very weak ratings at the beginning, but later started catching up with Bronisław Komorowski. We will see if this trend emerges in the case of Nawrocki's campaign. I wouldn't prejudge anything from the outset, neither way. I believe that the presidential elections are the most unpredictable of all elections in a democratic system – he emphasizes”. -- NAWROCKI MAY PROVE TO BE A DANGEROUS COMPETITOR FOR TRZASKOWSKI – PROF. ANTONI DUDEK CONTINUES ON ONET: “– Nawrocki may prove to be a dangerous competitor for Trzaskowski, because he is a person with immense personal ambition. The question is whether circumstances will favor him and whether the development of the situation, as well as his own biography, will be in his favor? — ponders Prof. Dudek”. https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onettrojmiasto/karol-nawrocki-kandydatem-pis-prof-dudek-przesadzily-obawy-kaczynskiego/4e6l0t8,79cfc278 -- “THE PRESIDENT IS SUCH A COOL GUY, IT'S SHOCKING” – THIS IS WHAT DOMINIK TARCZYŃSKI THINKS – QUOTED BY WPOLITYCE.PL: “No one knows what kind of person he is. That's the most interesting part. They only know him because he has a cat. He's the kind of guy that if you spend an evening with him and get to know him simply... He's such a cool guy, it's shocking, really. Simply, the distance he has from himself, the way he describes himself. How he understands everything”. https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/714002-tarczynski-o-prawdziwym-kaczynskim-kocur-jest-taki-ze-szok -- “THIS WILL BE A VERY DIFFICULT CAMPAIGN. EVERY VOTE WILL COUNT. AND EVERYTHING WILL BE DECIDED ONLY AT THE VERY END” – RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH AGNIESZKA KUBLIK AND IWONA SZPALA IN GW: “Rafał Trzaskowski himself does not hide that he and Civic Coalition face a very difficult campaign. - Every vote will count. And everything will be decided only at the very end. PiS is fighting for its life – he comments. - So they will constantly poison us with lies, just as they are now clumsily trying to hide their election banner”. -- “HE WILL WIN EASILY” – THE FOREIGN MINISTER TELLS US – FURTHER FROM THE GW AUTHORS: “Radosław Sikorski, Rafał Trzaskowski's recent rival in the primaries, looks optimistically at the campaign. - He will win easily – the Foreign Minister tells us”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31492175,nawrocki-latwiejszym-konkurentem-niz-czarnek-w-ko-mowia-ze.html -- MOODS IN CIVIC COALITION ARE NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW – DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN NEWSWEEK: “Karol Nawrocki, contrary to appearances, can be a very serious opponent for Rafał Trzaskowski, who is already worn out by election battles. Nawrocki has advantages that PiS politicians are trying to emphasize, but which can really matter. He is 41 years old and a decade younger than Trzaskowski. He is the same age as Aleksander Kwaśniewski was when he moved into the Presidential Palace and two years younger than Andrzej Duda. Politicians from the Coalition, although they laugh at the argument that Rafał Trzaskowski is an old-fashioned politician in this regard, they become serious when asked about the upcoming campaign and what the PiS candidate will focus on”. -- THE PROBLEM FOR RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI'S PEOPLE IS ALSO THAT NAWROCKI DOESN'T HAVE PARTICULARLY MANY DARK SPOTS IN HIS BIOGRAPHY THAT ARE NOT ALREADY KNOWN – DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ CONTINUES IN NEWSWEEK: “And such – which is obvious – are very useful in an election campaign. Reports of his cooperation with the Tricity underworld are so far only media reports, and documented contacts with a former criminal, and now an MMA fighter, may earn him recognition in certain circles. It is already evident that politicians from Rafał Trzaskowski's entourage are looking for something that can stick to Nawrocki, but they are doing it too quickly and too nervously for now”. https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/co-szykuje-kaczynski-w-ko-juz-sie-niepokoja-kulisy/lnrdgeg -- WILL HE MANAGE TO SEDUCE PROVINCIAL POLAND AS WELL, THE MORE CONSERVATIVE, TRADITIONAL ONE, ATTACHED, FOR EXAMPLE, TO THE TRUTH THAT THERE ARE TWO SEXES, NOT 10 – PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ IN INTERIA: “The campaign will also be a test of whether Trzaskowski will manage to overcome the stereotypical image of an urban aesthete, created by the media and the right-wing, who, according to the expectations of his extravagant left-wing entourage, caters to the absurdities of political correctness. And whether he will manage to seduce provincial Poland as well, the more socially conservative, traditional one, rejecting excessively wild progress and attached, for example, to the truth that there are two sexes, not 10”. -- TRZASKOWSKI STANDS BEFORE THE OPPORTUNITY OF A LIFETIME TO CONSUMMATE THE FRUITS OF HIS MANY YEARS OF POLITICAL JOURNEY AND SHARPLY STRENGTHENED POSITION – PRZEMYSŁAW SZUBARTOWICZ CONTINUES. -- NAWROCKI'S FIRST SPEECH, AS ADMITTED BY RIGHT-WING SUPPORTERS AND THE TOUGHEST SYMMETRICISTS, MAINLY SHOWED THE CANDIDATE'S RIGIDITY, THE HERMETIC NATURE OF HIS SENSE OF HUMOR – SZUBARTOWICZ STILL WRITES IN INTERIA: “His first speech, as admitted by right-wing supporters and the toughest symmetrists, mainly showed the candidate's rigidity, the hermetic nature of his sense of humor, and the awkwardness of the words read from a piece of paper. He said nothing original in the context of the demands of his milieu, known for years”. -- ANDRZEJ DUDA WAS ALSO SUPPOSED TO LOSE ONCE – SZUBARTOWICZ'S CONCLUSION: “It is certain that Poland faces a somber period of an un-substantive campaign, which may end with a surprise for any of the sides. Andrzej Duda was also supposed to lose once”. https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/wybory/prezydenckie/news-tu-nie-bedzie-pojednania,nId,7862665 -- THE FUNDRAISING IS NOT GOING WELL, ALTHOUGH IT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT IN APPROXIMATELY PLN 10 MILLION. THE MASS MOVEMENT HAS LOST MOMENTUM – JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK: “– Fundraising is crucial for us now. Jarosław Kaczyński publicly thanks everyone for their donations and is happy, but in reality, it's poor – says another PiS politician. What was predictable has happened. The mass movement has lost momentum. – Initially, our fervent supporters rushed to donate – we hear in PiS. – Our MPs and MEPs are bled dry every month – he adds. A rank-and-file PiS parliamentarian pays at least PLN 1,000, and a Member of the European Parliament, who earns several times more – at least PLN 5,000”. https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/na-szyi-pis-zaciska-sie-finansowa-petla-tej-kasy-juz-nie-powachamy/0tz6vp6 -- THE PRESIDENT RETURNS TO THE TOP SPOT IN ONET'S TRUST RANKING, THE PRIME MINISTER DROPS TO THIRD: “At the top of the ranking, after a five-month break, is Andrzej Duda. In the latest poll, the President enjoys 42.7% positive ratings. Rafał Trzaskowski takes second place in the November trust ranking. 42.5% of respondents trust the Mayor of Warsaw. In third place is the October leader, Donald Tusk”. https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/sondaz-zaufania-ibris-dla-onetu-nowy-lider-powrot-holowni-debiut-nawrockiego/wq12btn,79cfc278 -- HISTORY SHOWS THAT SUCH CONFRONTATIONS HAVE HAPPENED FOUR TIMES, AND THREE TIMES THE CANDIDATE FROM PIS WON. AND ONLY ONCE THE CANDIDATE FROM THE PLATFORM WON – MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH MAGDALENA RIGAMONTI ON ONET: “History shows that such confrontations have occurred four times in the last 20 years, and three times the candidate from Law and Justice won. And only once did the candidate from the Platform. I will repeat: four times in the last 20 years, Poles in the second round of presidential elections could choose between a candidate from Law and Justice and Civic Platform. And as many as three times they chose the PiS candidate”. -- FOR NOW, FOR PIECES, THIS IS THE CANDIDATE WHO THEORETICALLY HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR DIALOGUE OUTSIDE THE PIECES BUBBLE – KAMIŃSKI ON NAWROCKI. -- AS EARLY AS JANUARY, THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN WILL GIVE US AN ANSWER AS TO THE DYNAMICS OF THESE ELECTIONS. RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI STARTS WITH 57 PERCENT, AND NAWROCKI WITH 14 – KAMIŃSKI CONTINUES WITH RIGAMONTI ON ONET: “As early as January, the election campaign will give us an answer as to the dynamics of these elections. Rafał Trzaskowski starts with 57 percent, and Nawrocki with 14. January will show us which candidacy is gaining and which is losing. January will also give us an answer to the question of whether it might be worth, for the first time in 20 years, to try a third way in the elections, meaning to try a candidate who will not be a candidate for half of Poland”. -- WE WANT A PRESIDENT FOR ALL OF POLAND – SAYS KAMIŃSKI: “The future president from the PO party or the PiS party will be president for half of Poland, and we want a president for all of Poland. Such a president is needed”. -- I WILL URGE MY COLLEAGUES FROM PSL TO JOIN THIS CAMPAIGN AS SOON AS POSSIBLE – KAMIŃSKI CONTINUES WITH RIGAMONTI: “I will vote for Szymon Hołownia in the first round of the elections. And everything indicates that I will urge my colleagues from PSL to join this campaign as soon as possible”. https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/popieral-sikorskiego-teraz-przestrzega-ko-jesli-tego-nie-zrozumieja-przegraja/rh9dq1b,79cfc278 -- YOUNG PEOPLE ESPECIALLY SHOULD UNDERSTAND THAT A CHEAP POLAND, MADE OF DICTATES, IS A DIRECT PATH TO WORKING IN THE FIELDS – PIOTR GLIŃSKI AFTER A MEETING WITH YOUTH ABOUT THE MUSEUMS OF POLISH HISTORY AND MSN: https://x.com/PiotrGlinski/status/1861009552642048156 -- BOGUSŁAW SONIK TELLS ONET WHY HE SUPPORTED NAWROCKI – IN CONVERSATION WITH SZYMON PIEGZA: https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/byly-wieloletni-posel-platformy-obywatelskiej-popiera-karola-nawrockiego/g6wsr17,79cfc278 -- “KEEP EVERY EXTRA PENNY” – NAWROCKI'S PROPOSAL, LIKE TRUMP'S – KASIA BIELECKA IN GW: “Interestingly, Nawrocki's idea, while innovative nationally, is not innovative internationally. During his election campaign, Donald Trump came up with a similar proposal. However, a bill on this matter has already been presented in the American Congress by another Republican. Those who would like to look into the American version of the bill to better understand Nawrocki's proposal will be disappointed, however. The bill with the catchy name 'Keep Every Extra Penny' (KEEP) not only lacks many details but has also not been further developed since July”. https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,159911,31492079,calkowite-zniesienie-opodatkowania-nadgodzin-karol-nawrocki.html -- THE CONCEPT OF POSTPONING IMPORTANT DECISIONS UNTIL "AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS" IS NOT A MESSAGE THAT STRENGTHENS TRUST IN THE RULING PARTY – DR HAB. PAWEŁ RUSZKOWSKI – SOCIOLOGIST, LECTURER AT COLLEGIUM CIVITAS WRITES IN GW: “Increasingly, voters of the democratic coalition are encountering the stance: 'Yes, we want to achieve this, but…'. I understand the intentions of political leaders who aim to limit the political risk of various decisions that could result in social dissatisfaction (e.g., miners, energy sector workers). However, one must be aware that in the context of presidential elections, such a formula is demobilizing for declared voters and unattractive for non-voters. The concept of postponing important decisions until 'after the presidential elections' is not a message that strengthens trust in the rulers”. -- BASING THE ELECTION STRATEGY ON THE MESSAGE: "VOTE FOR US, BECAUSE PIS WILL RETURN TO POWER" ALSO SEEMS LIKE A POOR WAY TO MOBILIZE – DR HAB. PAWEŁ RUSZKOWSKI CONTINUES IN GW: “Basing the election strategy on the message: 'Vote for us, because PiS will return to power' also seems like a poor way to mobilize, even in relation to the core electorate. And by using this argument, we can forget about reaching non-voters”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31490952,wybory-prezydenckie-czy-mozna-zmobilizowac-nieglosujacych.html -- CURTAILING THE PARASITIC PRACTICES AND EXPLOITATION BY POLITICIANS OF STATE-OWNED AND MUNICIPAL COMPANIES COULD HELP THE RULING CAMP WIN THE NEXT ELECTION – WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “It would be wonderful if this procession of nepotism were finally stopped, and the current government should do it. The bag of 'Santa Claus' Tusk's gifts is empty. The difficult economic situation, especially the budget, does not allow for further costly gifts. However, the Prime Minister can give society something valuable that will not burden the budget and taxpayers' pockets, but on the contrary – will reduce the costs of the public sphere's functioning, increase budget revenues, and public life transparency”. https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31487066,trzeba-oczyscic-sfere-publiczna-z-nepotyzmu-i-cwaniactwa.html -- NO ONE WILL CENSOR ME – ANDRZEJ MLECZKO LEAVES TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “All interested parties are invited to view my latest drawings on my social media, where, most importantly, no one will censor me – emphasized Mleczko, which may suggest the probable reason for his departure from 'Polityka'”. https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,31493021,nikt-nie-bedzie-mnie-cenzurowal-rysownik-andrzej-mleczko.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Zdrada (88), Andrzej Rzepliński, Andrzej Halicki, Adam Leszczynski, Andrzej Szczerski, Przemysław Iwańczyk, Grzegorz Lipiec, Jerzy Smoliński, Tomasz Sygut.

Łukasz Mężyk