state of play: 10/30/2024

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Szuldrzyński on PiS's 'Ziobro-Czarnekization' and Early Poll Effects, Miączyński in GW: Tusk Faced No Difficult Budget Questions from Journalists

Łukasz Mężyk

-- DOMAŃSKI'S DEFICIT HOLE EXPLODES. AFTER THE 2024 BUDGET AMENDMENT, THE DEFICIT WILL BE PLN 240.3 BILLION! - PIOTR MIĄCZYŃSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “The press conference after the government meeting was supposed to start at 3 PM. Prime Minister Donald Tusk was 26 minutes late. And he wasn't in good form. This doesn't change the fact that he handled the amendment to this year's budget perfectly, completely overshadowing one of the biggest failures of this government, and certainly one of the biggest failures of the Ministry of Finance.” -- HOW MANY JOURNALISTS PRESENT AT THE PRESS CONFERENCE ASKED PRIME MINISTER DONALD TUSK ABOUT THE BUDGET DEFICIT AFTER THE AMENDMENT? ZERO. TUSK RECEIVED NO DIFFICULT QUESTIONS AT ALL - MIĄCZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Now for a puzzle. How many journalists present at the press conference asked Prime Minister Donald Tusk what the budget deficit would be after the budget amendment? Zero. They even asked about freak fights. Tusk received no difficult questions at all.” -- THIS MEANS A GIGANTIC HOLE FOR DOMAŃSKI, WHO FOR LONG MONTHS ASSURED THAT EVERYTHING WITH THE BUDGET WAS GOING AS IT SHOULD - MIĄCZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “The cards were only laid on the table shortly before 6 PM in a brief communiqué from the Chancellery of the Prime Minister. “In light of this, the maximum level of the budget deficit will be increased from PLN 184 billion to PLN 240.3 billion.” This means a gigantic hole for Domański, who for long months assured that everything with the budget was going as it should, and that an amendment was practically unnecessary.” https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,147582,31424219,dziura-domanskiego-eksplodowala-po-nowelizacji-budzetu-2024.html -- ALL THE CREDIT OF TRUST THAT FINANCIAL MARKETS GAVE TO THE NEW GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN SQUANDERED - JACEK FRĄCZYK IN BUSINESS INSIDER: “We will pay dearly for this budget amendment. Interest on debt is the highest in a year. The yield on 10-year Polish bonds jumped on Tuesday to its highest level in almost exactly a year. All the credit of trust that financial markets gave to the new government has been squandered in this way. Future state borrowings will require paying higher interest, which is already a significant burden.” https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/slono-zaplacimy-za-te-nowelizacje-budzetu-odsetki-od-dlugu-najwyzsze-od-roku/ctz9zp4 -- ZGORZELSKI: TRZASKOWSKI COULD BE OUR CANDIDATE IF AGREED UPON - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/10/30/ -- THE RULING COALITION MAINTAINS ITS PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY AND TOGETHER WOULD HAVE 254 SEATS - IBRIS POLL FOR RZECZPOSPOLITA -- PIS CAN COUNT ON A RESULT BELOW 30%, WHICH IS 29.6% - RZECZPOSPOLITA POLL DESCRIBED BY JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ: “Civic Coalition is strengthening compared to the result in the parliamentary elections of October 15, 2023, when it won 30.7%, and PiS enjoyed a result of 35.38%. Today, Jarosław Kaczyński's party can count on a result below 30%, i.e., 29.6%.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art41368921-sondaz-partyjny-koalicja-15-pazdziernika-umacnia-sie-pis-z-konfederacja-bez-szans-na-przejecie-wladzy -- CIVIC COALITION IS 4 POINTS AHEAD OF PIS; TWO WEEKS AGO, CIVIC COALITION WAS ONLY 1 PERCENTAGE POINT AHEAD OF PIS - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GAZETA WYBORCZA DESCRIBES A CBOS SURVEY: “Civic Coalition would win the elections with 33%. Since the last survey, conducted from October 7-10, it has gained 4 percentage points. PiS came in second place with 29%. This is a minimal increase compared to the poll from two weeks ago, only 1 percentage point.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31423280,cbos-ko-zwiekszylo-przewage-nad-pis-na-podium-konfederacja.html -- NEW POLL AND THE FIRST EFFECTS OF PIS'S 'ZIOBRO-CZARNEKIZATION' - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “If Kaczyński bets on the former Minister of Education in the presidential race, it will mean a further colonization of PiS by an extreme agenda associated with culture wars and the so-called alt-right. And this, regardless of how Czarnek performs in the elections. PiS, colonized by Ziobro and Czarnek, can effectively harden its loyal electorate.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41369361-michal-szuldrzynski-nowy-sondaz-i-pierwsze-efekty-ziobroczarnkizacji-pis -- NOTHING IS CERTAIN, I AM VERY CURIOUS ABOUT THIS VOTE - I HEAR FROM WITHIN PIS. BUT THIS VOTE IS AT THE BEGINNING OF NOVEMBER - AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA DESCRIBES THE DIFFICULT PROCESS OF ACCEPTING POLITICIANS FROM ZIOBRO INTO PIS: “- It's one thing when they join us and become vice-presidents among vice-presidents, and another when they reach for regions to lead them - I hear from a politician who knows the local climate in the party. A similar test awaits MP, former Deputy Minister of Justice Sebastian Kaleta, who has been promised the Warsaw district. - Nothing is certain, I am very curious about this vote - I hear from PiS. But this vote is at the beginning of November.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31424265,suwerenna-polska-urzadza-sie-w-pis-sa-glosy-niezadowolenia.html -- BECAUSE VOICES HAVE EMERGED THAT HOLD ME RESPONSIBLE FOR ALCOHOL SENSORS, I HAVE DECIDED TO BREAK MY SILENCE – DR PIOTR JABŁOŃSKI, FORMER DIRECTOR OF THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR ADDICTION PREVENTION, TELLS OKO.PRESS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH SŁAWOMIR ZAGÓRSKI: “I believe I had no influence on how this matter turned out. I was one of the people who pointed out that this type of activity is legal in Poland and therefore something should be done about it. I believe I was treated unprofessionally and unethically. It is very difficult for me to talk about this.” -- I BELIEVE THAT NIGHTTIME ALCOHOL PROHIBITION SHOULD CEASE TO BE OPTIONAL AND SHOULD BE MANDATORY. THE SALE OF ALCOHOL AT GAS STATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETELY PROHIBITED - DR PIOTR JABŁOŃSKI CONTINUES TO OKO.PRESS: “This is a matter of advertising, especially targeting young people. It is also a matter of banning alcohol promotion, because through promotion, various barriers are bypassed, and alcohol can be purchased in some chains below market prices. Furthermore – the issue of online alcohol sales, which should be unequivocally resolved. No consideration should be given to how to protect young people from online alcohol sales. Simply, this trade should not exist. I believe that nighttime alcohol prohibition should cease to be optional and should be mandatory. The sale of alcohol at gas stations should be completely prohibited; it is a misunderstanding. Please consider how many tragedies in Poland occur due to road accidents caused by intoxicated individuals.” https://oko.press/dymisja-za-alkotubki-piotr-jablonski-zostalem-potraktowany-w-sposob-nieprofesjonalny-nieetyczny -- BIRTHDAYS: Anna Krupka, Andrzej Drzycimski, Tomasz Zimoch, Andrzej Gut-Mostowy, Andrzej Rzońca, Małgorzata Golińska.

Łukasz Mężyk