„We Must Assume Pessimistic Scenarios So As Not To Be Surprised.” — Tusk at the Crisis Staff Meeting
state of play: 10/28/2024
POLITICAL GAME: Wielowieyska: PSL Winks: Not with Czrnek and Ziobro, but we'll reach an agreement with Morawiecki; Flieger: The Left Can Divide or Multiply, but Still Lacks a Electorate
-- PRIME MINISTER TADEUSZ MAZOWIECKI DIED ELEVEN YEARS AGO - OCTOBER 28, 2013.
-- ENERGY PRICES IN POLAND ARE 2.5 TIMES HIGHER THAN IN NORWAY, AND ONE QUARTER HIGHER THAN IN GERMANY, SWITZERLAND, AND DENMARK. THEY ARE THE HIGHEST IN EUROPE AND PROBABLY THE HIGHEST IN THE WORLD - JACEK FRĄCZYK IN BUSINESS INSIDER: "With such a burden, the Polish economy loses competitiveness, and investors see this. Why is energy so expensive here? Because we produce more than half of it from coal. Energy companies, by the way, do not profit from such energy at all, and even produce at a loss."
https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/polowa-energii-w-polsce-produkowana-ze-stratami-mamy-najwyzsze-ceny-w-europie/
-- "WYBORCZA" REVEALS WHAT MILLIONS FROM THE FUND OF JUSTICE WERE SPENT ON - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI: "Part of the money that the Profeto Foundation received from the Fund of Justice went towards the private expenses of Father Michał Olszewski. There were also payments to his parents and to a company in which his lawyer and the foundation's vice-president hold shares. Millions were spent on television production equipment and... socks."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31418505,tajemnice-ksiedza-olszewskiego-wyborcza-ujawnia-na-co-poszly.html
-- ZIOBRO PERSONALLY VISITED KACZYŃSKI. "DISCREETLY RETURNING TO POLITICS" - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN NEWSWEEK: "Everything he has been doing recently adds credibility to the opinion of the expert who ruled that after months of long and painful treatment, he is 'oncologically healthy.' The catch is that Ziobro himself claims this opinion is false. He simply would like to continue to hide behind his poor results and dramatic photos from months ago, even though he is now healthy enough to discreetly return to politics. Suffice it to say that when the fate of the merger of PiS with Suwerenna Polska was being decided, Ziobro personally visited Jarosław Kaczyński at Nowogrodzka. Let's be frank, cancer patients fighting for their lives have other things on their minds than chats with the party leader."
https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/ziobro-chce-kryc-sie-za-choroba-ale-dyskretnie-wraca-do-polityki/3zxs8m8
-- "THE DECISION HAS NOT BEEN MADE YET." KIERWIŃSKI ON "TWO EXCELLENT CIVIC COALITION CANDIDATES" - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/10/28/
-- WHY DID KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ LAUNCH AN OFFENSIVE AGAINST THE MAYOR OF WARSAW? - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "Why did Kosiniak-Kamysz launch an offensive against the Mayor of Warsaw, although the latter always tried to maintain very good relations with the Minister of National Defence? Why, just before the final decision, does the PSL leader want to eliminate a colleague from the game?"
-- PSL MEMBERS ARE SENDING SIGNALS THAT IF SIKORSKI WERE THE COMMON CANDIDATE, THEY WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO COMPROMISE ON ISSUES SUCH AS PARTNERSHIP ASSOCIATIONS OR ABORTION - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER IN GW: "Kosiniak-Kamysz suggested that the October 15th Coalition will not survive without the conservative wing, and it will ultimately be cut off if Trzaskowski runs. Moreover, PSL members are sending signals that if Sikorski were the common candidate, they, the agrarian party, would be more inclined to compromise on issues such as partnership associations or abortion."
-- PSL WINS: NOT WITH CZARNEK AND ZIOBRO, BUT WE'LL REACH AN AGREEMENT WITH MORAWIECKI - CLAIMS WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "The agrarian party's move can also be interpreted differently: they want to send a signal that they are again agile, that they are setting conditions again, and if the Mateusz Morawiecki faction wins in PiS in the future, rather than the Przemysław Czarnek or Zbigniew Ziobro faction, then PSL could form a coalition with such a right-wing party."
-- THE STRATEGY OF CORNERING TUSK WAS ADVISED TO KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ BY KAMIŃSKI, ZGORZELSKI, AND SAWICKI: "This strategy of cornering Tusk was advised to Kosiniak-Kamysz by the former PiS star, then advisor to Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz, now in the PSL circle, still familiar with the arrangements on the right, Michał Kamiński, the influential club leader Piotr Zgorzelski, the long-time president and grey eminence of the agrarian party, Waldemar Pawlak, and the agrarian doyen Marek Sawicki."
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31418519,plan-kosiniaka-kamysza-zwiazki-partnerskie-i-aborcja-w-zamian.html
-- KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ WOULD CERTAINLY SEE HIMSELF IN THE ROLE OF PRIME MINISTER IN EXCHANGE FOR THE THIRD WAY'S SUPPORT FOR A COMMON CANDIDATE - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: "It's just that Tusk cannot be president and prime minister at the same time, so a successor would have to be found for him in the government. Kosiniak-Kamysz would certainly see himself in this role in exchange for the Third Way's support for a common candidate. But even if another KO politician replaced Tusk as head of government, the position of the coalition partners would be strengthened, as there is no politician in Civic Coalition as strong as the current prime minister, capable of dominating the government to the same extent as Tusk does."
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art41355821-artur-bartkiewicz-dlaczego-donald-tusk-nie-chce-wspolnego-kandydata-koalicji-na-prezydenta
-- WHY WOULD A PI5 AND CONFEDERATION VOTER SUDDENLY START VOTING FOR SOMEONE WHO IS IN COALITION WITH DONALD TUSK - DOMINIKA SITNICKA IN OKO.PRESS: "It is not growing, despite the fact that PSL effectively prevents the liberalization of abortion law, despite the fact that it blocks, or at least delays, the introduction of partnership associations. The question remains whether these are indeed things for which a right-wing voter might value politicians? And why would a PiS and Confederation voter suddenly start voting for someone who is in coalition with Donald Tusk, whom they either hate or distrust?"
-- PSL IS NOT ONLY NOT BUILDING ITSELF UP OR GAINING CREDIBILITY, BUT IS MOST LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEMOBILIZATION OF VOTERS OF THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION - SITNICKA FURTHER IN OKO: "PSL is not only not building itself up or gaining credibility, but is most likely contributing to the demobilization of voters of the October 15 Coalition. Recent surveys indicate that the PiS and Confederation coalition would win the elections. As indicated in analyses by Przemysław Sadura and Sławomir Sierakowski, the reason for this is the demobilization in the groups of people who decided the democrats' victory in 2023."
-- FROM THE PSL'S PERSPECTIVE, THERE IS THEREFORE NO MORE REASONABLE DECISION THAN TO DISTRIBUTE VOTES WITHIN THE PARTY SO THAT THE LAW ON ASSOCIATIONS PASSES, AND AS SOON AS POSSIBLE - CLAIMS SITNICKA: "From the PSL's perspective, there is therefore no more reasonable decision than to distribute votes within the party so that the law on associations passes, and as soon as possible. The new law gains time to socially 'settle,' which means minimizing potential losses in the conservative electorate. And the party can declare its worldview neutrality – after all, there was no party discipline in the club, and the project was not their own."
https://oko.press/w-poszukiwaniu-straconego-elektoratu-dlaczego-w-sprawie-zwiazkow-partnerskich-psl-popelnia-blad
-- THE LEFT CAN DIVIDE OR MULTIPLY, BUT STILL LACKS AN ELECTORATE. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE PLATFORM WILL GAIN A LEFT WING THAN THAT THE LEFT WILL GAIN SUBJECTIVITY - ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: "The Left can therefore divide or multiply, but it lacks an electorate. The social one is served by PiS. And the liberal worldview one - by Civic Coalition. It is difficult not to understand the female senators and deputies who left Razem, because they want to do politics (Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk paved the way), not be part of a discussion club. At the same time, it is the Platform that will gain a left wing, not the Left gaining subjectivity. The low support for Razem thus sets the ceiling for the possibilities of an independent Left. How much of this is its own fault?"
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41357011-estera-flieger-lewica-razem-czy-osobno-to-bez-znaczenia
-- IN PiS, MORE AND MORE PEOPLE FROM THE PARTY LEADERSHIP ARE CONVINCING JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI TO EVEN WAIT UNTIL DECEMBER TO PRESENT A CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT - KAMILA BARANOWSKA IN INTERIA: "The party has commissioned new research, this time quantitative, and is awaiting its results. - We will announce the candidate when we are ready, the November 11th date is not very binding for us - admits the PiS spokesperson in an interview with Interia."
-- ANYONE WHO RUNS UNDER THE PiS BANNER WILL HAVE RECOGNITION GUARANTEED, REGARDLESS OF THE CAMPAIGN DURATION - RESPONDS ONE OF THE PiS POLITICIANS - FURTHER IN BARANOWSKA'S ARTICLE IN INTERIA: "Another politician recently convinced us that, for example, Karol Nawrocki performs better in polls at the start than Andrzej Duda did after announcing his candidacy."
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/wybory/prezydenckie/news-pis-opozni-wybor-kandydata-na-prezydenta-po-co-sie-spieszyc,nId,7844443
-- 35 YEARS AGO, at the end of an interview on the television program Dziennik Komentarze, Joanna Szczepkowska stated: "Ladies and gentlemen, on June fourth, 1989, communism ended in Poland."
-- ALSO 35 YEARS AGO, the Christian National Union (ZChN) was founded.
-- 6 YEARS AGO, Edward Dwurnik passed away.
-- Also 6 years ago, Kazimierz Czaplicki passed away.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Piotr Semka turns 59, Mieto Strzelecki, Tadeusz Iwiński.
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