„We Must Assume Pessimistic Scenarios So As Not To Be Surprised.” — Tusk at the Crisis Staff Meeting
state of play: 09/13/2024
STATE OF PLAY: Wielowieyska: Confederation's electorate increasingly friendly to PiS in polls, Skrzydłowska: A situation where legal arguments don't hinder action
-- “WE ARE UNCOMPARABLY BETTER PREPARED THAN IN PREVIOUS YEARS.” TUSK AFTER MEETING WITH SERVICES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/09/13
-- POLISH PEOPLE'S PARTY'S AUTUMN OFFENSIVE. LAWS FROM THE MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE, NEW ELECTORAL ORDINANCE, AND A COUNTRY TOUR - BARTEK GODUSŁAWSKI IN BUSINESS INSIDER POLSKA: “The signal for the start of the autumn programmatic and political offensive is to be the National Council of the Polish People's Party (PSL) planned for next week. - Later, we intend to start with weekend tours of the voivodeships, ministers and parliamentarians will be involved. We will begin in Lublin Voivodeship. We will show voters what has already been achieved, we will collect feedback and draw conclusions – says an important PSL politician. The party of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz intends to press Minister of Finance Andrzej Domański on the health contribution. For the PSL, simply excluding the health contribution from the sale of fixed assets is not enough.”
https://businessinsider.com.pl/gospodarka/psl-szykuje-jesienna-ofensywe-ustawy-z-mon-nowa-ordynacja-wyborcza-i-objazd-kraju/5x5r0kw
-- IN A FIGHTING DEMOCRACY, WE ALL KNOW THE LAW. AND THAT IS THE PROBLEM - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “A situation has arisen in Poland where legal arguments do not hinder action. It does not matter factually whether a body is legal or not, only that it convenes and makes decisions. This radicalizes the conflict.”
-- THE AMBIGUITY OF LEGAL ASSESSMENTS AND THE SITUATION WHERE EVERYONE IN POLAND HAS BECOME A LAWYER BECAUSE IT IS INSEPARABLY LINKED WITH POLITICS, PARADOXICALLY MAKES THE SITUATION EASIER FOR HAWKS - SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN'S CONCLUSION.
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/09/12/skrzydlowska-kalukin-w-demokracji-walczacej-wszyscy-znamy-sie-na-prawie-i-to-jest-problem/
-- NOWOGRODZKA'S POLLS SHOW THAT THE CONFEDERATION'S ELECTORATE IS INCREASINGLY FRIENDLY TOWARDS PiS - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Another element of the offensive is Kaczyński's sudden declaration that he will participate in the Independence March. Nowogrodzka's polls show that the Confederation's electorate is increasingly friendly towards PiS, because the ruling Civic Coalition (Koalicja 15 Października) is today a negative point of reference for them. This is of particular importance in the presidential elections.”
-- PiS WANTS TO MAINTAIN VOTER ENGAGEMENT, BECAUSE THEN THEY OPEN THEIR WALLETS MORE WILLINGLY - WIELOWIEYSKA FURTHER IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Soon the wave of solidarity will subside, and the issue of the National Electoral Commission (PKW) will become commonplace. Nowogrodzka wants to do everything to prevent this. Voter engagement needs to be maintained, because then they open their wallets more willingly. The demonstration under the Ministry of Justice planned for Saturday, September 14th, serves this purpose. The distancing from former MEP Ryszard C., who has been suspended from PiS membership, serves this purpose.”
-- THE MOST RECOGNIZABLE ACTIVISTS HAVE NO CHANCE FOR NOMINATION - WIELOWIEYSKA ON PiS'S PRESIDENTIAL DILEMMA: “According to spin doctors, any figure can be created. The less known the candidate, the greater the room for maneuver, and thus the greater the chance of creating a completely new, fresh image. That is why the most recognizable activists have no chance for nomination. And that is why their people spread rumors in the media that after long tests, the leader will decide that secondary candidates are not popular and will opt for a well-known figure. But my interlocutors believe this is wishful thinking. It is more probable that Kaczyński will pull some new candidate out of his hat, one who has not appeared on the list of names.”
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,31297208,aresztowany-ryszard-cz-obcieta-subwencja-wizerunkowa-wtopa.html
-- THE CZARNECKI CASE WILL ALLOW THE RULING COALITION TO SHOW EFFECTIVENESS AND CONVINCE VOTERS THAT ACCOUNTABILITY FOR PiS IS STILL ONGOING. FOR KACZYŃSKI'S PARTY, IT IS AN IMAGE CATASTROPHE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “Image-wise, it works like this: he was arrested, so there must be something to it. Human nature works here – if an affair is too strongly associated with someone's name. By remembering it, we will remember that something was wrong with that person. After all, that is precisely why for eight years the efforts of TVP, headed by Jacek Kurski, were aimed at disgusting Poles with Donald Tusk, even if serious accusations were sometimes interspersed with almost conspiracy theories. Today, the same mechanism works to the detriment of PiS.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41118851-michal-szuldrzynski-riczard-czarnecki-robi-pis-katastrofalny-problem
-- IF SOMEONE WANTS TO SINK THE POLISH FOOTBALL TEAM, IT'S ENOUGH TO PASS THEM THE BALL AND CALMLY WAIT FOR THEM TO START BOTHERING THE PLAYERS. IT'S SIMILAR WITH KACZYŃSKI – ALTHOUGH ALL YOU NEED TO DO IS HAND HIM A MICROPHONE - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZECZPOSPOLITA.
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41118721-artur-bartkiewicz-reformowanie-brytyjskich-sadow-i-inne-rzeczy-ktorych-jaroslaw-kaczynski-mowic-nie-powinien
-- ALL OF THIS CREATES AN EXCEPTIONALLY DANGEROUS POLITICAL DYNAMIC FOR PiS - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN NEWSWEEK: “Some group of PiS politicians may also decide that a party without money, whose politicians are increasingly facing prosecutorial charges, is no longer a good place for their political careers and it is worth starting to look for new avenues. Until now, similar calculations were blocked by the fact that PiS had money from subsidies and the resulting advantage over any alternative right-wing project – as Zbigniew Ziobro and his Solidary Poland painfully learned. However, if PiS loses not only part of its campaign refund but also most of its subsidy funds, the playing field to the right of the ruling coalition will become much more level.”
-- THEY MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CAPITALIZE ON THE PROBLEMS OF THE RULING MAJORITY FOR A LONG TIME - MAJMUREK FURTHER: “If, in addition to all these problems, they also suffer losses in the presidential elections, PiS will find itself in very serious trouble. So serious that it may not be able to capitalize on the problems of the ruling majority for a long time – internal disputes, inability to fulfill several key promises, or a visible decline in the government's ratings.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/pis-wraca-do-opozycji-totalnej-jaroslaw-kaczynski-idzie-na-zwarcie-ze-swiatem/dtwrbdf
-- THE PiS CONGRESS WILL BE HELD ON SEPTEMBER 28 IN PRZYSUSZE. UNOFFICIALLY: STATUTORY CHANGES AND A MERGER WITH SUWERENNA POLSKA ARE PLANNED - WPOLITYCE: https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/705900-kongres-pis-odbedzie-sie-2809-w-przysusze-wazne-decyzje
-- FIREK PUBLISHED A TWEET REVEALING THAT APPROXIMATELY 30% OF CONTRIBUTIONS TO PO CAME FROM INDIVIDUALS CONNECTED TO THE REAL ESTATE MARKET WHO WOULD BENEFIT FROM THE 0% CREDIT PUSHED BY PO AND PSL - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “After years of PiS governments and crises, there is plenty in Poland. The government is struggling with them. But this crisis is exceptionally nasty. Because by weakening the belief that democrats act in the public (not their party-private) interest, it erases the fundamental difference between the current and previous government, which we are only beginning to hold accountable. If the PSL and PO do not do something about it quickly, we may all pay a painful price during the presidential elections.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,31299834,domysly-w-sprawie-mieszkan-moga-pograzyc-rzad.html
-- TAYLOR SWIFT MAY SERVE TRUMP A POLISH-STYLE JUDGMENT DAY - JACEK CIEŚLAK IN RZECZPOSPOLITA: “Republicans fear that their grandchildren and children, who constitute 25% of Swift's fanbase, will vote against them: that it will be a kind of Polish Jagodno, where young people pushed PiS out of power until three in the morning.”
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41110961-jacek-cieslak-taylor-swift-moze-zgotowac-trumpowi-amerykanskie-jagodno
-- BIRTHDAYS: Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz (turns 74), Jarosław Wałęsa, Michał Majewski, Janusz Tomaszewski, Rafał Ziemkiewicz, Artur Kosicki.
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