state of play: 09/06/2024

STATE OF PLAY: Siewierska: Is Tusk's Bomb an Abortion Referendum on Election Day? CBOS: Support for the Government Drops, Głowacki on Siewiera's Candidacy

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TUSK'S BOMB: WILL THERE BE A REFERENDUM ON ABORTION? - ANNA SIEWIERSKA ON TYGODNIK POLITYKA PORTAL: “I've come across a surprising leak from Tusk's inner circle. It turns out that Civic Platform (KO) has not only not given up on the issue of abortion, but is also preparing a real bombshell. Despite earlier criticism of this idea, KO is increasingly seriously considering the proposal from its coalition partners to hold a referendum on abortion. The condition? The referendum would be held on the same day as the presidential elections, which – given the increasingly liberal views of Poles on access to abortion up to the 12th week of pregnancy – could turn out to be a real ‘game-changer’.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2269305,1,bomba-tuska-bedzie-referendum-ws-aborcji.read -- SUPPORT FOR DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT HAS DROPPED - CBOS POLL DESCRIBED BY ONET: “Half of those surveyed (50%, an increase of 1 percentage point) have a negative opinion of his work, while 34% (a decrease of 5 percentage points) rate it positively. More people than before have no defined opinion on the government's work (16%, an increase of 3 percentage points). 'Compared to the first half of the year, the positive assessment of the government's actions is currently 8 percentage points lower than the average for January-June (average 42%), while negative assessments are higher by 7 points (average 43%)' - reports CBOS.” -- ACCORDING TO CBOS, ACCEPTANCE OF DONALD TUSK AS PRIME MINISTER HAS DECREASED FOR THE SECOND TIME IN A ROW: “According to CBOS, acceptance of Donald Tusk as Prime Minister has decreased for the second time in a row. 35% of respondents are satisfied with the fact that he holds the office of head of government (a decrease of 2 percentage points), while 53% – as in July – have the opposite opinion. The percentage of people with no clear opinion on the Prime Minister - 13% - has increased by 3 percentage points.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/spadek-poparcia-dla-rzadu-donalda-tuska-najnowszy-sondaz/htrf9tl -- 'IF HE REFLECTED A LITTLE, HE WOULDN'T TALK NONSENSE'. CZARNEK ATTACKS MASTALEREK - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/09/06 -- ONE PRETENDER ACTS LIKE A HOTHEAD, ANOTHER IS COMPLETELY UNREMARKABLE. AND TIME IS TICKING - JACEK GĄDEK IN NEWSWEEK ON PIS'S PRESIDENTIAL DILEMMAS: “Irritation is growing within PiS because the search for a presidential candidate has yielded no results so far. Polls – according to our sources in PiS – commissioned by Nowogrodzka show that there is no good candidate yet. One contender acts like a hothead, another is completely unremarkable. And time is ticking.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/ten-zly-ten-jeszcze-gorszy-pis-bada-kandydatow-i-ma-powazny-problem/kkyghl1,452ad802 -- SIEWIERA IS THE ONLY NAME THAT CAN POSSIBLY BE CONSIDERED AS HAVING ANY, ALBEIT RATHER SMALL, CHANCES OF SUPPORT FROM PIS AS WELL - WITOLD GŁOWACKI IN OKO.PRESS: “In the case of a presidential candidate, even a semblance of non-partisanship is a very important trait. This is precisely why Siewiera is the only name that can possibly be considered as having any (though rather small) chances of support from PiS as well. Siewiera himself has not yet unequivocally dismissed speculation about his possible candidacy.” -- RUMORS CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE ABOUT A SCENARIO WHERE MORAWIECKI WOULD RUN ON HIS OWN, USING HIS OWN CONSIDERABLE RESOURCES - FURTHER FROM GŁOWACKI IN OKO: “Morawiecki will almost certainly not be the PiS candidate. However, this does not change the fact that within Kaczyński's party and in the political-journalistic Sejm circles, there are still whispers about a scenario where Morawiecki would run on his own, using his own considerable resources. This would, of course, mean an open and full-scale war with PiS and Jarosław Kaczyński, and incidentally, almost certain defeat for both Morawiecki and the 'legal' PiS candidate in the presidential elections. In the future, however, it could result in some form of political independence for Morawiecki, similar to what Zbigniew Ziobro managed to achieve for several years.” https://oko.press/prezydenckie-dylematy-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego -- THE PARTY'S "GERIATRICS" ARE TO BE MOVED TO THE NATIONAL COUNCIL - SAYS OUR SOURCE FROM NOWOGRODZKA - ŁUKASZ SZPYRKA AND JAKUB SZCZEPAŃSKI IN INTERIA: “- They will be put to sleep, they will keep their positions. Jarosław will be the chairman, but the executive board will be new. To prevent it from being too new, it will be controlled by the former head of the Ministry of National Defence - we hear from Nowogrodzka. In practice, the power of PiS vice-chairmen sitting on the National Council will be only illusory. This is about degradation through formal promotion. This applies, among others, to the former prime minister. - He will move them all to higher-lower stools. It will be degradation through promotion - says our informant.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-degradacja-przez-awans-nowy-plan-prezesa-pis,nId,7774837 -- POLLS SHOW THAT RUMORS OF PIS'S END WERE EXAGGERATED - ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Because while Donald Tusk dominates his coalition partners in a one-man show, which he likes to perform on behalf of the entire government, he must remember that PiS is still lurking behind Civic Coalition, and the gap between the two parties is within the margin of statistical error. And PiS has a potential coalition partner in reserve. That is Konfederacja.” https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art41080341-artur-bartkiewicz-sondaze-pokazuja-ze-pogloski-o-koncu-pis-byly-przesadzone -- THE PRIME MINISTER'S CHANCERY ASKED ANDRZEJ DUDA FOR CONSENT TO NOMINATION WITHIN EU STRUCTURES. THIS IS ANOTHER CASE WHERE THE GOVERNMENT COMPLIES WITH THE COMPETENCY ACT WHICH IT CONSIDERS UNCONSTITUTIONAL - GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN WP: “This event was significant because with this action, the government, for the first time, entered the procedure provided for in the so-called competency act, prepared by the Presidential Palace at the end of the PiS government. Earlier, the ruling party, including Donald Tusk himself, had suggested or directly stated that this act grants excessive powers to the president and therefore would not be respected. The president himself was to be bypassed in the procedure for selecting individuals for important EU positions.” -- BODNAR FOR SAFJAN TO CJEU? - FURTHER ŻÓŁCIAK AND OSIECKI: “- So far, it has gone quite smoothly. I expect the first tensions on the government-president line when trying to fill the CJEU seat vacated by Marek Safjan. Especially since, from what we hear, Adam Bodnar has been promised this position - says our source from the Presidential Palace.” https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/kolejny-gest-wobec-prezydenta-premier-pyta-o-zgode-na-unijna-nominacje-7067849156901472a.html -- RELATIONS BETWEEN POLAND AND GERMANY HAVE CLEARLY COOLED DOWN - ADAM KRZEMIŃSKI IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “Relations with Germany are not easy. The generation that knew what it was dealing with and what it wanted to achieve in dialogue with its neighbours has passed. What remains is difficult language, a close but different culture, and the constant barrage from the right-wing, which for years has galvanized the image of an eternal enemy, conflicts of interest, and an uncertain ally fixated on Russian raw materials and the 'Russian soul'.” -- AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN POLAND AND THE BUNDESTAG ELECTIONS IN GERMANY – A SUBSTANTIVE PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE ON THE STATE OF OUR NEIGHBORHOOD WOULD BE BENEFICIAL - KRZEMIŃSKI'S CONCLUSION. https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/2269607,1,szron-w-upale-oziebilo-sie-wyraznie-w-relacjach-polski-z-niemcami-czy-znow-jest-miedzy-nami-zle.read?src=mt -- BIRTHDAYS: Elżbieta Polak, Marek Bosak.

Łukasz Mężyk