state of play: 07/17/2024
THE STATE OF PLAY: Szczęśniak: Tusk's Government Lacks Agency, Debutant Ministers Struggle; Kamiński: Bodnar's Team is Great, Leftist, and Rainbow-Tinged, While PiS Roars with Laughter
-- PARLIAMENTARY CORRIDORS ARE BUZZING WITH ONLINE SURVEYS INDICATING MILLIONS OF VIEWS ON THE ABORTION ISSUE. THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY ARE REPORTEDLY DECIDEDLY NEGATIVE OPINIONS CONCERNING DONALD TUSK AND ROMAN GIERTYCH. “WE THOUGHT IT WOULD PASS. BY ONE, TWO VOTES, BUT IT WOULD PASS” – MP AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK OF CIVIC COALITION TELLS OKO.PRESS.
-- DONALD TUSK'S GOVERNMENT, ACCORDING TO MY INTERLOCUTOR, LACKS AGENCY. DEBUTANT MINISTERS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THEIR PORTFOLIOS. AND ALL COALITION PARTNERS ARE PAYING THE PRICE FOR THE LACK OF RESULTS – SZCZĘŚNIAK CONTINUES: “Another prominent politician from PSL asks me what significant projects have emerged from the government. According to him, this is a rhetorical question. Donald Tusk's government, in my interlocutor's opinion, lacks agency. Debutant ministers are not coping with their departments. And all coalition partners are paying the price for the lack of results. The agrarian party was expected to pay with a poor result in the local elections. ‘Our voters expect concrete laws that we agreed upon with them.’ MP Urszula Pasławska of PSL speaks in a similar vein. ‘Today, after seven months in power, we are failing to implement what we agreed on. Introducing uncoordinated laws is imprudent. Why are laws being introduced and processed that do not have a majority? Someone is very keen to forcefully demonstrate how divided the October 15th Coalition is. And PiS is smiling and reaching for a glass of champagne,’ Pasławska tells OKO.press.”
-- ONLINE SURVEYS CIRCULATED AMONG MPS OVER THE WEEKEND INDICATE THAT DONALD TUSK TOOK THE BIGGEST HIT AFTER FRIDAY'S VOTE – SZCZĘŚNIAK CONTINUES IN OKO: “Online surveys circulated among MPs over the weekend indicated that Donald Tusk took the biggest hit after Friday's vote. Until now, the Left has paid the steepest price in terms of support for the government coalition failing to fulfill its promises regarding women's rights. Now KO and the Prime Minister himself are also facing problems. Karolina Lewicka cited research from the analytical collective Res Futura on TOK FM: ‘Comments concerning Donald Tusk after Friday's vote show a clearly negative sentiment. The criticism is directed at the lack of effectiveness in enforcing party discipline and at placing Roman Giertych on electoral lists. Social media users accuse the Prime Minister of cynically exploiting women's rights for political gain. Some emphasize that Tusk is unable to ensure unity within his political camp, leading to disappointment and anger.’”
-- IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT ANDRZEJ DUDA HIMSELF COULD SUPPORT THE THIRD WAY'S BILL. HOWEVER, PARADOXICALLY, THIS COULD BE A PROBLEM FOR THE OCTOBER 15 COALITION. BECAUSE IF THE PRESIDENT, WHO IS CLOSE TO PiS, SIGNS A BILL CONCERNING ABORTION, PERHAPS HE IS NOT SO DANGEROUS? – SZCZĘŚNIAK CONTINUES IN OKO: “It is not impossible that Andrzej Duda himself could support the Third Way's bill. However, paradoxically, this could be a problem for the October 15th Coalition. Because if the President, who is close to PiS, signs a bill concerning abortion, perhaps he is not so dangerous? The pretext for mobilizing at least some voters disappears. And politicians are already thinking about 2025, the presidential elections. And the disputes surrounding abortion are crucial here.”
https://oko.press/ustawa-dekryminalizujaca-pomoc-w-aborcji-co-zrobi-tusk
-- ON THE BLACK CLOUDS OVER BODNAR – POLISH 2050 MP PAWEŁ ŚLIZ ON TOK FM: “Śliz also explained that those responsible for the prosecution's embarrassment should face consequences. – I would like to have full information about where the prosecution made a mistake and who is responsible. What is certain is that Minister Adam Bodnar now faces a difficult task. Black clouds are hanging over him, and difficult decisions await him – he added.”
https://www.tokfm.pl/Tokfm/7,103087,31149214,to-mi-sie-nie-miesci-w-glowie-posel-wskazal-na-bledy-prokuratury.html
-- MICHAŁ KAMIŃSKI ON PiS ROARING WITH LAUGHTER DUE TO THE “STUPIDITY OF PEOPLE ON OUR SIDE,” “BODNAR HAS EXCELLENT LEFTIST VIEWS ON ABORTION, HIS TEAM IS GREAT, LEFTIST, AND RAINBOW-TINGED”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PEeIsZv_yE
-- GIERTYCH HAS ALREADY BEGUN HIS BATTLE FOR RAPID AND AS PAINFUL AS POSSIBLE CHANGES IN THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE; THIS IS ANOTHER ACT IN THE WAR THE MP IS WAGING WITH THE MINISTER OF JUSTICE – DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN NEWSWEEK: “Roman Giertych has already begun his battle for rapid and as painful as possible changes in the National Public Prosecutor's Office and among line prosecutors, not necessarily taking into account that the matter of the Justice Fund is under the supervision of a special team of prosecutors established by the new Minister of Justice. (...) This is another act in the war that the Civic Coalition MP is waging with the Minister of Justice and the National Public Prosecutor's Office.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/marcin-romanowski-na-wolnosci-nagle-posiedzenie-sadu/12vrrhe
-- KIERWIŃSKI TO GIERTYCH: I WOULD PREFER POLITICIANS NOT TO CONDUCT SUCH “QUICK” TWITTER POLITICS – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/07/17
-- OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT WILL START STEPPING INTO PiS’S SHOES – PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Let us hope, therefore, that if Romanowski indeed ends up in detention, the prosecution will use this time properly. And in the future, there will not even be a shadow of an accusation that pre-trial detention was used against the former Deputy Minister of Justice merely to break the suspect, attack the current opposition, and gain political support in the polls. Otherwise, the current government will begin to step into PiS’s shoes.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/afera-romanowskiego-koalicja-ma-nowa-strategie-na-rozliczenie-przestepstw-politykow-zwiazanych-z
-- THE SUCCESS OF THIS GOVERNMENT DEPENDS ON AGREEMENT IN THESE MATTERS, NOT ON THE ISSUES OF HOLDING PiS ACCOUNTABLE, PROF. EWA MARCINIAK, HEAD OF CBOS, IN CONVERSATION WITH INTERIA: “Prof. Ewa Marciniak also emphasizes that the policy of holding the previous ruling team accountable is happening 'in the shadow of other important problems arising from the prose of life.' – Several thousand small shops have recently been liquidated due to electricity prices and labor costs after the minimum wage increase; queues to doctors; lengthening court process times, for which the state must pay compensation and damages; security matters – the success of this government depends on agreement in these matters, not on holding PiS accountable, she notes.”
-- SOCIETY NEEDS INFORMATION ABOUT FACTS, PROJECTS, AND GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES TO HAVE A SENSE OF PREDICTABILITY OF POWER – CONTINUES THE HEAD OF CBOS IN INTERIA: “Society needs information about facts, projects, and government initiatives to have a sense of predictability of power. Peace and stability occur when we know what to expect. Whoever sets the agenda is right, and the government – due to the lack of a spokesperson – largely renounces this, she notes.”
-- TUSK “SHOULD THINK ABOUT A NEW, COMMON DENOMINATOR FOR THE COALITION PARTNERS, AS THE BOND BASED ON HOLDING PiS ACCOUNTABLE IS GRADUALLY FADING” – PROF. MARCINIAK CONTINUES: “The policy of holding accountable seems to be a sufficiently important bond for the Prime Minister, as despite insubordination in Friday's vote, Roman Giertych retained his position as head of the team for detecting and tracking scandals of the previous government. Nevertheless, the head of CBOS claims that Donald Tusk 'should think about a new, common denominator for the coalition partners, as the bond based on holding PiS accountable is gradually fading.'”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-spoiwo-sie-kruszy-wyrazny-sygnal-ostrzegawczy-dla-donalda-tu,nId,7673792
-- THE PROSECUTION'S FAILURE TO VERIFY WHETHER MP MARCIN ROMANOWSKI HAS INTERNATIONAL IMMUNITY FROM THE PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY OF THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE, PROTECTING HIM FROM ARREST, COULD BE A SERIOUS POLITICAL PROBLEM FOR DONALD TUSK – TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ.
-- THIS COULD ALSO POLITICALLY BURDEN DONALD TUSK AND SLOW DOWN GOVERNMENT PLANS TO HOLD THE OPPOSITION ACCOUNTABLE – PIETRYGA CONTINUES: “And now, not only the prosecution might have a problem. Strasbourg is very sensitive to provisional arrest and has repeatedly expressed this, punishing Poland for its abuse. And now, a charge of violating international protection standards, which are sacred in all civilized countries, could arise. And this could also politically burden Donald Tusk and slow down the government's plans to hold the opposition accountable.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art40821961-tomasz-pietryga-aresztowanie-romanowskiego-moze-rodzic-powazny-problem-dla-tuska
-- IT IS CLEAR AS DAY THAT DONALD TUSK WILL DO EVERYTHING TO PREVENT ANY SOCIAL-LIBERAL COMPETITION FROM EMERGING ON THE LEFT: EITHER MOST OF THE NEW LEFT'S POLITICIANS WILL JOIN CIVIC COALITION, OR THEY WON'T ENTER THE NEXT SEJM – ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “It is clear as day that Donald Tusk will do everything to prevent any social-liberal competition from emerging on the left: either most of the New Left's politicians will join Civic Coalition, or they won't enter the next Sejm. Poland 2050, as they say in the agrarian party's corridors, will share the fate of the Kukiz'15 movement, which did not survive its marriage with PSL. Szymon Hołownia and his Poland 2050 have weak poll numbers and will find it difficult to survive on their own. Therefore, a new partner is needed. Perhaps not now, but in reserve.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40820191-zuzanna-dabrowska-psl-u-mile-miejsce-po-prawej-od-wejscia-do-sejmu
-- NUMEROUS CATHOLICS ARE OUTRAGED BY THE DIVISION OF SOCIETY BY KACZYŃSKI'S CAMP, HIS ANTI-EUROPEAN POLICY, AND VIOLATION OF THE CONSTITUTION, BUT ARE NOT AT ALL INTERESTED IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A LEFT-LIBERAL VISION OF SOCIETY AND CULTURE – ALEKSANDER HALL IN RZ: “The slogan ‘the time for a happy Poland has come,’ repeated by Civic Coalition politicians during the election campaign and after taking power, evidently meant a vision of society organized according to their imaginings, which are not only inconsistent with the beliefs of the supporters of the current opposition but also of many Poles who voted on October 15th last year against the continuation of PiS rule. Among them were numerous Catholics outraged by the division of society by Jarosław Kaczyński's camp, his anti-European policy, and violation of the constitution, but not at all interested in the implementation of a left-liberal vision of society and culture. Prime Minister Donald Tusk seems to forget or disregard this fact.”
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40820991-aleksander-hall-refleksje-po-siedmiu-miesiacach-rzadow-koalicji
-- SERAFIN COULD BE CONSIDERED FOR THE PORTFOLIO OF ENLARGEMENT (NEGOTIATIONS WITH UKRAINE), OR ONE OF THE KEY ECONOMIC PORTFOLIOS, IN WHICH THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION HAS BROAD PREROGATIVES – JACEK PAWLICKI IN NEWSWEEK ON THE POLISH COMMISSIONER:
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/newsweek/tusk-ma-na-stole-kilka-scenariuszy-decydujacy-moment-w-europejskiej-grze-o-trony/zbc8vn6,452ad802
-- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Tym turns 87, Anna Bikont, Tadeusz Pokrywka.
live
57 min
41 min
„The Government Did Everything to Block It and Continues to Do So.” — Krajewski on the Mercosur Agreement
44 min
Krajewski: The President Promised Help Blocking the Mercosur Deal. Unfortunately, He Achieved Nothing in This Matter
45 min
„I'm Available.” — Krajewski Asked About Meeting with Farmers' Protest Organizers
50 min
„Politically Engaged Union Activists Are There.” — Krajewski on Farmers' Protest
71 min
Presidential Palace Announces Legal Support for Farmers in Case of "Provocations" During Protests
86 min
Leśkiewicz: The President Did Everything to Prevent the Mercosur Deal's Signing. What Did Those in Power Do? It Turns Out, Nothing
2 hours
„We Need to Consider If It's Better to Resolve This Differently.” — Żurek on His Proposal Regarding the Justice Fund
3 hours
Żurek: I Assume the President Will Understand That the Constitution Must Be Respected
3 hours
„I Expect the Most Important Matters for Poland to be Presented with a Single Voice.” — Żurek Ahead of Nawrocki-Tusk Meeting
state of play
STATE OF PLAY: Flieger: PiS Opponents Have Normalized 'Polexit' for Poles, Perhaps Even Pinned It on PiS; Szubartowicz: Can Governance in Poland Be Maintained Through Hegemony and Autocracy?
state of play
today
POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Kaczyński Distances Himself from Braun 'Even at the Cost of Stalemate,' Gądek: Kaczyński 'Spoke to Morawiecki' about a Multi-Nurtured Party, Stankiewicz: Pełczyńska Distributes Positions
state of play
yesterday
STATE OF PLAY: Watoła: Women Fear Giving Birth in Emergency Rooms, Ministry Ignores Them; Kalukin: Initial Sober Diagnoses of the Right Gradually Become Excessively Radicalized
state of play
01/07/2026
STATE OF PLAY: Cichocki: Why should we side with Russian or Chinese imperialism in Venezuela? Beylin: If we think the far-right has hit a wall, we are mistaken.
state of play
01/05/2026
STATE OF PLAY: Left-wing politician at Szpala: Kaczyński struggles with factions, Tusk gains backing from Czarzasty allowing him to challenge PiS and the President, Chwedoruk: PiS stagnation will progress
state of play
01/03/2026
STATE OF PLAY: Flis: These 8% of voters who currently choose Razem, PSL, or Poland 2050 will decide. GW: Tusk stopped the Left's project, Wójcik in Krytyka: Poland's further turn to the right
state of play
01/02/2026