state of play: 05/29/2024
GAME STATE: Trzaskowski Drops to 5th in Trust Ratings, But Civic Coalition Wins 3 Polls; GW: Obajtek Fakes Presence in Poland, Janicki: Gawryluk to Dilute Government Support
-- POLAND DOESN'T SEE THEM - ON GAZETA WYBORCZA'S FRONT PAGE: “Young African women are holding onto the border fence and calling for help. Poland doesn't see them. For weeks, NGO workers have been trying to monitor the girls' safety. Although they watch them constantly, they know little about them. According to a psychologist, most of the girls are minors. – They tell us their dates of birth. They have also sent photos of documents confirming this to hotlines. They look very young – she emphasizes. Activists admit that there is no certainty about the migrants' age, but until it is unequivocally determined, one cannot say that the girls are lying.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,31005271,mlode-somalijki-trzymaja-sie-zapory-na-granicy-i-wolaja-o-pomoc.html
-- ARE THE HIGHLANDERS RADICALIZING? CROWDS AT A MEETING WITH GRZEGORZ BRAUN, EVEN CHILDREN ASKED FOR AUTOGRAPHS ON FIRE EXTINGUISHERS - PIOTR STARMACH IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “Grzegorz Braun's visit to Nowy Targ, Rabka-Zdrój, Czarny Dunajec, and Zakopane attracted over a thousand residents of Podhale. Highlanders waited in line for the parliamentarian's autograph on fire extinguishers they brought for up to several dozen minutes. In Nowy Targ itself, over four hundred people attended the meeting with the leader of Konfederacja. No other parliamentarian in recent years has attracted such crowds.”
https://zakopane.wyborcza.pl/zakopane/7,179294,31013538,podhale-tlumy-na-spotkaniu-z-grzegorzem-braunem-o-autograf.html
-- MASTALEREK ON SZYDŁO'S SUPPORT FOR KURSICZKI WITH A NAUSEATED EMOJI: "DISGUSTING" - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/05/29
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-- AT THE TOP, THERE IS STILL A STRICT DRAW. THE CIVIC COALITION AND LAW AND JUSTICE CAN COUNT ON 34.1 PERCENT. OF VOTES. BOTH GROUPS HAVE SLIGHTLY GAINED COMPARED TO THE FORECAST AT THE BEGINNING OF MAY. LARGER FLUCTUATIONS CONCERN THE FOLLOWING FORMATIONS - PERS FORECAST ON ONET - DESCRIBED BY MATEUSZ BAŁUKA: “At the top, there is still a strict draw. Civic Coalition and Law and Justice can count on 34.1 percent. of votes. Both groups have slightly gained compared to the forecast at the beginning of May. Larger fluctuations concern the following formations. The projected result for Trzecia Droga is 11 percent. support. This is 1.3 pp. less compared to the analysis from May 10th. The third place of the Poland 2050 and PSL coalition seems to be threatened, given that Konfederacja is approaching a double-digit result. Currently, its expected result is 9.5 percent. Lewica will also introduce its people to the European Parliament with 7 percent. support. The predicted turnout is 41.3 percent. (+0.8 pp.). Daniel Pers notes that the forecast does not take into account the potential impact of the tape scandal involving the Ziobro faction on the party's support.”
-- DIVISION OF SEATS IN PERS'S FORECAST: “Currently, the figures translate into the following seat distribution: KO — 19, PiS — 19, Trzecia Droga — 6, Konfederacja — 5, Lewica — 4. Compared to the previous forecast, the structure has not changed. It is being weighed who will specifically get seats in Brussels. There is no shortage of sensational outcomes.”
-- KURSICZKI MAY LOSE TO KOC - PERS ON THREATENED PIS LEADERS: “Among those at risk are Mariusz Kamiński, Maciej Wąsik, Jacek Kurski, and Ryszard Czarnecki. Warsaw: Małgorzata Gosiewska (No. 1) may lose the race for a seat to Tobiasz Bocheński (No. 2). Lublin region: Mariusz Kamiński (No. 1) may lose the race for a seat to Jacek Saryusz-Wolski (No. 2). Lower Silesia: Anna Zalewska (No. 1) may lose the race for a seat to Beata Kempa (No. 2), or even Michał Dworczyk (No. 3). Warmia, Masuria, and Podlasie: Maciej Wąsik (No. 1) may lose the race for a seat to Karol Karski (No. 2). Mazovia: Jacek Kurski (No. 2) may lose the race for a seat to Maria Koc (No. 3). Wielkopolska: the race for a seat is ongoing between Wojciech Kolarski (No. 1), Ryszard Czarnecki (No. 2), and Marlena Maląg (No. 3). That's not all. Pers Election forecasts a "murderous battle" within PiS for a second seat in one of the three districts.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/rekordowo-nieobliczalne-wybory-plejada-politykow-pis-moze-zostac-na-lodzie/h6qfgzz,79cfc278
-- IPSOS FOR KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA - PUBLISHED BY PRZEMYSŁAW SADURA IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “How will the votes of those who go to the polls be distributed? One in three (32 percent) voters want to vote for Civic Coalition, and it looks like this time it will manage to triumph over Jarosław Kaczyński's party. Law and Justice has 3 percentage points fewer supporters. Trzecia Droga and Konfederacja are fighting for a podium spot with support of 10 percent. Despite the most pro-European agenda, Nowa Lewica can only count on 7 percent. of votes. If only decided individuals went to the polls, the hierarchy would be similar, although the advantage of KO (37 percent) and PiS (33 percent) over the other formations would be greater – both leaders would receive a total of as much as 70 percent. of the votes.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2257821,1,badania-przedwyborcze-co-pokazaly-widac-paradoks-mozliwe-zaskoczenia-i-silna-partie-kanapa.read
-- IBRIS FOR "RZECZPOSPOLITA": CIVIC COALITION SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF PIS: The IBRiS company conducted a survey on May 23-24. If the elections were held next Sunday, Civic Coalition would win 32.1 percent. of votes. PiS would take second place with 30.3 percent. of votes. In further positions:
Trzecia Droga – 12.7 percent,
Lewica – 8.9 percent,
Konfederacja – 7 percent.
9.3 percent. of respondents do not know who they would vote for.
The survey does not yet show any potential effects of the Justice Fund affair, which may discourage some moderate PiS voters.
https://oko.press/na-zywo/na-zywo-relacja/ibris-dla-rzeczpospolitej-ko-nieznacznie-przed-pis
-- UNITED SURVEYS FOR WP: TUSK'S PARTY LEADS: Responding to the question, respondents most often indicated Civic Coalition, which could count on 32.4 percent. of votes. Law and Justice came in second with a result of 30.8 percent. The podium is closed by Konfederacja with a result of 11.7 percent, which thus overtook Trzecia Droga – 10.8 percent of respondents want to vote for it.
https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/nowy-sondaz-pis-depcze-ko-po-pietach-zacieta-walka-o-zwyciestwo-7032407657114368a
-- IN THE IPSOS SURVEY FOR TVP, PIS SLIGHTLY LEADS: In a poll conducted by Ipsos between May 22-25, Law and Justice garnered 30 percent. of votes, Civic Coalition – 29 percent, and Konfederacja – 13 percent. The following places were taken by: Trzecia Droga – 9 percent, Lewica – 8 percent, and Bezpartyjni – 1 percent. Another committee was chosen by 1 percent. of respondents, and 9 percent. of respondents have no opinion. The polexit option received zero support.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31013745,nowy-sondaz-przed-wyborami-do-europarlamentu-pis-i-po-dzieli.html
-- TIE IN CBOS: “If parliamentary elections were held in the third decade of May, KO and PiS would achieve the highest result (30 percent each). Compared to the previous survey, PiS gained two percentage points of support, and KO maintained its result. In addition to KO and PiS, three other groupings would enter the Sejm, each achieving a similar electoral result. Trzecia Droga, Konfederacja, and Lewica all received 9 percent. of indications.”
https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40491331-nowy-sondaz-cbos-pis-i-ko-na-remis-trzecia-droga-lewica-i-konfederacja-tez
-- RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI DROPS TO 5TH PLACE IN IBRIS TRUST SURVEY FOR ONET, DUDA RETURNS TO FIRST PLACE, TUSK HOLDS A STRONG POSITION: “Andrzej Duda was last at the top of the trust ranking in September last year. In May, he leads it with a trust rating of 44.1 percent (24.9 percent definitely, 21.4 percent rather). This is 1.9 pp. more compared to the April measurement. 38.1 percent have a negative opinion of the president (-7.2 pp.), and 15.2 percent are neutral (+9.5 pp.). Donald Tusk holds second place with a trust rating of 43.7 percent (20 percent definitely, 23.7 percent rather). This is 1.3 pp. less than a month earlier. 48.9 percent of respondents do not trust the Prime Minister (-0.1 pp.), and 7 percent express indifference towards him (+1.3 pp.). Szymon Hołownia is on the last step of the podium with 43 percent positive indications (12.9 percent trust definitely, 30.1 percent trust rather). This is 1.5 pp. less compared to April. The Speaker of the Sejm is negatively assessed by 38 percent of respondents (-7.6 pp.), and remains indifferent to 14.2 percent of people (+4.6 pp.). Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz ranks fourth. The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence is trusted by 40.1 percent this month (-1.4 pp.). Behind him is Rafał Trzaskowski, who gained the trust of 35.7 percent of respondents (-7.7 pp.). Such a significant drop in trust is likely related to the controversial decision of the Mayor of Warsaw to remove crosses from municipal offices. This is his worst result since June last year.”
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/sondaz-zaufania-donald-tusk-traci-fotel-lidera-rafal-trzaskowski-poza-czolowka/h5q7z1m,79cfc278
-- THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE HAS PUBLISHED AN ELECTORAL MAP OF FINANCIAL FLOWS FROM THE JUSTICE FUND: https://www.gov.pl/web/sprawiedliwosc/dotacje-z-funduszu-sprawiedliwosci-a-geografia-wyborcza
-- PATRIOTIC "VILLA PLUS." A LIST OF PROPERTIES FOR 45 NATIONAL-CATHOLIC ORGANIZATIONS - PIOTR PACEWICZ ON OKO.PRESS: “One right-wing foundation received money for a conference and training center, but purchased a 35-square-meter apartment. The president of another bought property from himself. We reveal the secrets of the Patriotic Fund. It can easily compete with "Villa Plus.”
https://oko.press/patriotyczna-willa-plus-lista-nieruchomosci
-- GAWRYLUK WILL DILUTE THE ELECTORATE OF THE CURRENT RULING COALITION CANDIDATES AND WILL DILUTE IT. THIS SCENARIO IS ALREADY READY AND WILL BE EXECUTED BY THOSE WHO ALWAYS DO IT. THIS PREDICTABILITY OF THE WORLD OF POLITICS AND MEDIA IS BECOMING RIDICULOUS - MARIUSZ JANICKI, FIRST DEPUTY EDITOR-IN-CHIEF IN THE LATEST ISSUE OF TYGODNIK POLITYKA: “In fact, everyone realized that Andrzej Duda as a presidential candidate was Kaczyński's bait for urban liberal circles; right-wing politicians said so openly. This did not prevent many representatives of these circles from supporting him, including in 2020. They knew that PiS wanted to entice them and they entered into this game – out of spite, "for a laugh," out of curiosity. However, for Duda's promoters, the motivations did not matter; any was equally good. And then another, well-recognized mechanism of social psychology took over: sticking to the first choice, justifying it even against new facts. If in 2025, Polsat journalist Dorota Gawryluk runs for president, as is increasingly rumored, one can be sure that voices of admiration will reappear, that she is a fresh new face, and moreover, a woman, above divisions, an ideal candidate who will unite Poles. And this will happen with full awareness of what political and business project it is, that it will not harm the PiS candidate in any way, because voters will listen to Kaczyński. Gawryluk will dilute the electorate of the current ruling coalition candidates and will dilute it. This scenario is already ready and will be executed by those who always do it. This predictability of the world of politics and media is becoming ridiculous.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2257825,1,tak-manipuluja-pis-i-kaczynski-na-zimno-modelowo-czytelnie-czy-wyborcy-dadza-sie-zwiesc.read
-- OBAJTEK FAKES PRESENCE IN POLAND - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI, ANNA GORCZYCA IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “- There are people on alert who watch to see if, for example, the police are approaching. If that happens, Obajtek disappears – says our informant. (...) According to "Gazeta Wyborcza" sources, Daniel Obajtek does not stay in Poland at night, but sleeps in Slovakia or Hungary (Podkarpackie borders Slovakia). He travels with an escort of former service agents, does not carry a phone so he cannot be tracked by signal, and prefers to arrange longer interviews in Vienna.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,31012186,uciekajacy-obajtek-jak-byly-prezes-orlenu-pozoruje-dostepnosc.html
-- MR. ROMANOWSKI - ALTHOUGH HE ACCUSED MORAWIECKI JUNIOR OF CONNECTIONS TO BERLIN - OBTAINED A THOROUGH EDUCATION IN GERMANY - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “And incidentally, Mr. Mraz's recordings suggest that public money was spent without any procedure. And public money flowed rapidly. Furthermore, the level of mutual trust between politicians was zero. In fact, as it turns out, politicians were not bound by any "Great Cause." Accusations of being an agent could be directed at both Donald Tusk and Mateusz Morawiecki. It didn't matter. Words and deeds still diverged. Bombastic words were accompanied by morally questionable behavior. "Rzeczpospolita" points out that Mr. Romanowski – although he accused Morawiecki junior of connections to Berlin – obtained a thorough education in Germany. What's more, he himself belongs to "Opus Dei" (sic!). When you think about it carefully, it's scary to imagine what we will learn from the next recordings.”
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-50-godzin-nagran-czyli-kto-jest-niemieckim-agentem,nId,7539138
-- REALIZATION OF OTHER DECLARATIONS MADE BY THE RULING COALITION IS MUCH WORSE. ONE OF THE FLAGSHIP DEMANDS OF THE CIVIC COALITION (AS PART OF THE 100 CONCRETE ACTIONS) WAS TO ABOLISH THE LIMITS OF THE NATIONAL HEALTH FUND - MARTA MARKIEWICZ ON GAZETA.PL: “However, the implementation of other declarations made by the ruling coalition looks much worse. One of the flagship demands of the Civic Coalition (as part of the 100 concrete actions) was to abolish the limits of the National Health Fund in hospital treatment – so that the queues, in which patients wait for consultations and procedures, would shorten. Unfortunately, the latest data from the WatchHealthCare Foundation showing the fate of Polish patients waiting for benefits is not optimistic. Based on the analysis of 80 guaranteed benefits and the queues for them, the average waiting time for Polish women to see a specialist was 5.9 months, while for the entire population – without considering the specifics of benefits provided to women and men – the waiting time for a specialist appointment was 3.7 months.”
https://jedennewsdziennie.pl/article/256#s=BoxOpMT
-- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Łętowski, Krzysztof Wolfram, Igor Chalupec, Wojciech Dardas.
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