„We Must Assume Pessimistic Scenarios So As Not To Be Surprised.” — Tusk at the Crisis Staff Meeting
state of play: 05/17/2024
POLITICAL GAME: Sonik Invites Putin to Elections, Chrabota: This Might Be Trzaskowski's First Step to Defeat, Szułdrzyński: Less and Less Room for Hołownia and Trzecia Droga
-- BIEDROŃ ON CIVIC COALITION'S SPOT: I'M AFRAID SOMEONE WATCHING SUCH A SPOT WILL BE INSPIRED AND THE SAME THING WILL HAPPEN AS IN SLOVAKIA - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/05/17/
-- I SAW THE NEW CIVIC PLATFORM SPOT. SUPERFICIALLY AIMED AGAINST PIS. IN REALITY, INSULTING US ALL. A SPOT INVITING PUTIN TO PARTICIPATE IN POLISH ELECTIONS IS SCUM - LILIANNA SONIK ON FB: “I saw the new Civic Platform spot. Superficially aimed against PiS. In reality, insulting us all. A spot inviting Putin to participate in Polish elections is scum. One must have a slave mentality to play such a tune… one must consider people primitive idiots to expect acceptance of something like this. When evaluating this rag, political views or sympathies are irrelevant. A spot that invites Putin to participate in Polish elections is scum! I won't share the link because it disgusts and shames me”.
-- THE CIVIC COALITION SPOT DOES NOT ALIGN WITH DONALD TUSK'S WORDS. NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO WEAKEN THE COMMUNITY - ESTERA FLIEGER IN RZ: “I feel very naive writing that the ruling party should be toning down emotions: this is a time for leaders, not charlatans. Is Donald Tusk passing this exam, or rather failing it? Only calm can save us. And constant support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia, until Kyiv's victory”.
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40374691-estera-flieger-spot-ko-nie-licuje-ze-slowami-donalda-tuska-to-nie-czas-na-oslabianie-wspolnoty
-- FACT, TOO MANY BAD EMOTIONS IN THE SPOTS. IN BOTH SPOTS - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “The argument that one must fight the opponent with their own weapons is weak. Because it shows the weakness of the creators of this spot. They lacked an idea for a video that would show unpleasant facts for PiS but not expose its creators as uncreative marketers. And we are living in pre-war times. Emotions are frayed, it's easy to have unpredictable behavior, fools, emotionally unstable individuals, on whom propaganda using incitement against others works. And it works. On Thursday, Tusk showed what some internet user sent him on X: "Slovaks have shown us today what should be done with Donald Tusk if he screws up CPK." "There was a lot of that yesterday. A vision of Poland," Tusk commented. Fact, too many bad emotions in the spots. In both spots”.
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30978904,coraz-ostrzejsza-bitwa-na-spoty-miedzy-pis-i-ko-przegraja-na.html
-- WHILE PRIME MINISTER FICO FIGHTS FOR HIS LIFE AFTER AN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT, CIVIC PLATFORM RELEASES A SPOT THAT COULD FUEL A SIMILAR ATTACK IN POLAND - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “The skull and crossbones in this video best illustrate what we are dealing with. This is pure hate speech, having nothing to do with even a harsh election campaign. The construction of the material indicates that its sole purpose is to emotionally stimulate voters, and through the force of accusations, perhaps provoke someone to some "direct action." Do they want death? Or perhaps they don't know what they are doing? I think they know perfectly well. They are looking at Slovakia and have concrete proof of what a campaign of hate leads to. While Prime Minister Fico fights for his life after an assassination attempt, they are releasing a spot that could fuel a similar attack in Poland. These are the facts”.
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/691994-gdy-fico-walczy-o-zycie-po-zamachu-po-wypuszcza-spot
-- WE ARE WITNESSING A TRUE MIRACLE. YESTERDAY'S SUPPORTERS OF RESETTING RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA AND EMBRACING PUTIN INTO EUROPE THROUGH GAS PIPELINES ARE TODAY BECOMING THE FOREMOST HUNTERS OF RUSSIAN AGENTS - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN INTERIA: “Here, before our very eyes, the same forces and political circles that not long ago (at least until the first war in Ukraine in 2014) advocated for a reset of relations with Russia, today stand as the first inquisitors hunting for pro-Russian sympathies in their political opponents. The same ones who convinced us (even after 2014) that any resistance to excessive dependence on Russian gas and pipelines bypassing Poland was a sign of a lack of political realism and anti-Russian hysteria. Just yesterday (even before 2022), these same people laughed at the PiS members and right-wingers for scaring people with war or droning on about the need to build some completely useless – God forbid – territorial defense, and their ambitions for expanding Polish armaments were seen as "dreams of power" or "waving sabers".
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-strach-padl-na-euroelity,nId,7514690
-- IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PRESIDENT OF WARSAW HAS JUST TAKEN THE FIRST STEP ON THE PATH TO DEFEAT IN THE BATTLE FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “I am convinced that the residents of Warsaw will critically assess Rafał Trzaskowski's decision to ban the display of religious symbols in offices, and even keeping them on their work desks. It is possible that the President of Warsaw has just taken the first step on the path to defeat in the battle for the Presidential Palace”.
-- OLDER AND LESS RADICAL PEOPLE, WHO WERE DISTANCED FROM THE PIS GOVERNMENT BY ITS RADICALISM. AND THESE PEOPLE, FOLLOWING RAFAL TRZASKOWSKI'S DECISION, MAY TURN AWAY FROM HIM - CONTINUES CHRABOTA: “Not only liberals and the left voted for Civic Coalition, PO, and Trzaskowski himself. Also a significant portion of the conservative center. Older and less radical people, who were distanced from the PiS government by its radicalism. And these people, following Rafał Trzaskowski's decision, may turn away from him. The calculation that the PiS candidate will be no alternative is also an overstatement. Firstly, there will be a third option. Secondly, all votes will count in the final dispute. And if Trzaskowski (still a potential candidate for President of Poland from the PO side) is to lose, he has just taken the first significant step on this path”.
-- TRZASKOWSKI WANTS THIS CONFLICT - CONTINUES CHRABOTA: “The president of the capital wants to be a spokesperson for their worldview; he polarizes clearly. And he knows that he will provoke a conflict. The only thing is, he wants this conflict. He cares about the expected flood of hate from the right wing pouring onto him. He counts on this mobilizing the left-wing and liberal electorate to defend 'their' president against the 'right-wing horde'. Everything fits into the clearly visible polarization mechanism on both sides of Polish politics. It is evident that those who manage its engines are unable or unwilling to practice politics otherwise”.
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40377291-boguslaw-chrabota-czy-rafal-trzaskowski-walczy-z-krzyzem
-- THERE IS LESS AND LESS ROOM FOR SZYMON HOŁOWNIA AND TRZECIA DROGA - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The European elections themselves are not very convenient from the perspective of Trzecia Droga. PiS and PO are trying to occupy all the space with themselves, not leaving much room for anyone else in the political debate. Konfederacja will also fight for a podium place, which may achieve a double-digit result. Especially since the European Parliament elections are much more convenient for them, as Konfederacja takes a clear, Eurosceptic stance in the campaign, positioning itself to the right of PiS. Trzecia Droga, on the other hand, somewhat competes for the electorate with Civic Coalition (PSL belongs to the same group in the EP as Platforma), and somewhat with Lewica (as it belongs to the progressive European faction of Emmanuel Macron), which means it loses some of the character of a centrist movement that it is in Poland”.
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40373781-michal-szuldrzynski-sondaz-holownia-ma-powody-do-zmartwien-dzis-jutro-tez-nie-rysuje-sie-na-rozowo
-- SOME SUGGEST THAT THE MATTER MAY LEAD TO A SHOCKWAVE IN THE RULING CAMP - KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONE: “In several voivodeships, the ruling coalition has still not reached an agreement on the election of marshals. It is particularly heated in Lower Silesia, where PO accuses PSL of making deals with PiS affiliates. Some suggest that the matter may lead to a shockwave in the ruling camp. (...) The PSL members from Lower Silesia are not so radical, however. The current Deputy Minister of Infrastructure, Paweł Gancarz, plays the leading role here, who – according to our interlocutors – would himself gladly move to the position of voivodeship marshal. Recently, Paweł Dworczyk, influential in Lower Silesia, former head of the Prime Minister's Chancellery, who brokered the PiS-BS coalition in 2018, even publicly praised Gancarz. Moreover, a few days ago, Dworczyk, accompanied by Mateusz Morawiecki, visited the mayor of Lubin, Robert Raczyński, one of the leaders of Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy. In addition, in early May, Wojciech Smoliński, a PSL member who unsuccessfully ran in recent parliamentary and local elections, was appointed to the supervisory board of Koleje Dolnośląskie. This happened thanks to the PiS-Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy coalition, which still controls the voivodeship government”.
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/bol-glowy-premiera-problemy-z-nieoczekiwanej-strony-zwariowali/942lf8d
-- POLITICAL CONFLICT IN CRACOW. NOWA LEWICA BREAKS COOPERATION WITH CIVIC COALITION - GAZETA.PL: “'The Municipal Council of Nowa Lewica in Krakow is making a decision to withdraw support for the coalition with the Civic Coalition club in the City Council' - informed the statement of Nowa Lewica in Krakow. This is a consequence of the conflict between the local structures of the party and Maciej Gdula. The Deputy Minister of Science allegedly proposed a candidate associated with Sopot for the position of Deputy Mayor of Krakow without their authorization”.
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30979275,polityczny-konflikt-w-krakowie-lewica-zrywa-wspolprace-z-ko.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Beata Małecka-Libera, Marta Poślad, Igor Sokołowski, Janusz Moszyński, Ben Stanley.
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