state of play: 05/15/2024

STATE OF PLAY: 60% Disagree with Tusk's Criticism of PiS, Including 70% of Third Way Voters; Czaputowicz: We Will Miss the Alliance with the US and UK; Katka: Sasin's Spectacular Defeats, PiS Loses Power Even When Winning

Łukasz Mężyk

-- WE WILL YET MISS THE ALLIANCE WITH THE UNITED STATES AND GREAT BRITAIN - JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ IN OPINIONS RZ: “Among the European Union member states, only France today possesses nuclear weapons and a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. However, the representative of the strongest political camp in that country – Marine Le Pen – has described all attempts at nuclear deterrence as a 'betrayal' of the French constitution. Can we therefore rely on the Weimar Triangle, France, and European defence for security, as Donald Tusk and Radosław Sikorski would wish? I fear we will yet miss the alliance with the United States and Great Britain. Let's hope it's not too late!” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40349751-jacek-czaputowicz-dlaczego-premier-donald-tusk-nie-lubi-brytyjczykow -- OUR MARGINS ARE DECENT, BUT NOT YET LIKE THOSE OF ARMS DEALERS - SPEAKS WITH DISARMING HONESTY THE HEAD OF ONE OF WARSAW'S LARGEST DEVELOPMENT COMPANIES - WOJCIECH KARPIESZUK IN GW: “Our margins are decent, but not yet like those of arms dealers. Real estate prices are rising because we are catching up with the Western world and haven't caught up with everyone yet – said the head of one of Warsaw's largest development companies with disarming honesty. The effect was that I opened my eyes in surprise listening to Jarosław Szanajca, president of Dom Development, on Łukasz Kijek's online program Biznes Klasa. Jarosław Szanajca argued that the over 30 percent developer margins on apartments, which are talked about, are a myth. Because it's... gross margin. Net profit in his company comes out to about 18 percent. 'Only' 500 million PLN in profit annually. (...) If developers don't have competition, they focus solely on chasing higher profits, not on building affordable housing. Why would they bother?” https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,30969931,duzy-warszawski-deweloper-nie-mamy-jeszcze-takich-marz-jak.html -- POLES DISAGREE WITH TUSK ON CRITICISM OF PiS - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Most respondents in the IBRiS survey disagree with the prime minister's statement that the United Right are 'paid traitors, Russian stooges.' The IBRiS study shows that only 29.8% of respondents share the head of government's opinion, while as many as 60% disagree. 9.8% of those asked have no opinion.” -- ONLY 13% OF THIRD WAY VOTERS AGREE WITH TUSK'S WORDS - NIZINKIEWICZ FURTHER IN RZ: “78% of Civic Platform voters assess PiS as a party acting for Russia. The opinion of the head of government is shared by 78% of Civic Platform voters, but 18% of its electorate disagree with the party leader. The Left is more unified, as as many as 58% of its electorate assess PiS as a party acting for Russia, and 29% have a different opinion. Among Third Way voters, 13% agree with the prime minister, and 71% do not. The thesis presented by Tusk is decidedly rejected by voters of Confederation (86%) and, of course, PiS – 99%.” -- THE MAJORITY OF RESPONDENTS SHOW COMMON SENSE, NOT ADOPTING THE RHETORIC THAT PiS ARE RUSSIAN AGENTS - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN NIZINKIEWICZ'S ARTICLE IN RZ: “– The majority of respondents show common sense, not adopting the rhetoric that PiS are Russian agents – comments prof. Antoni Dudek, a political scientist from UKSW. The researcher notes that the 29.8% of all respondents who consider PiS to be 'paid traitors, Russian stooges' aligns with the Civic Platform electorate in the parliamentary elections. 30.7% of Poles voted for Prime Minister Tusk's party on October 15. – The rest realize that attributing Russian agent activity to PiS is absurd. Previously, Kaczyński portrayed Tusk as a Russian agent. But neither PO nor PiS are Russian parties – comments the expert.” https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art40354821-sondaz-jak-polacy-oceniaja-slowa-donalda-tuska-o-pis-jako-zdrajcach-i-pacholkach-rosji -- ELECTION POLLS. PiS MAINTAINS LEAD, TUSK MOBILIZES VOTERS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “After the change of power, part of the apparatus reoriented towards the new coalition. But switching sides in a situation where PiS is still strong is becoming less obvious. Some officials or managers are starting to wonder if it's really worth it, given that a turning point might come later and PiS could return to power. This is precisely why it is so important for the Civic Platform to finally win elections and overtake PiS. Meanwhile, polls show that this will be difficult. Therefore, the ruling coalition is diligently exploiting the gift from heaven that has fallen into its lap in the form of the Tomasz Szmydt judge affair. Most of Prime Minister Donald Tusk's actions over the past week have focused on mobilizing his own voters and linking the current opposition with the East.” -- TUSK MOST FEARS THE DEMOBILIZATION OF HIS VOTERS, WHO MAY DISLIKE VARIOUS THINGS AFTER SIX MONTHS - FURTHER BY SZUŁDRZYŃSKI: “This post clearly shows that the leader of the Civic Platform fears most the demobilization of his voters, who may dislike various things after six months in power. In this way, he wants to convince that the upcoming elections will not be a beauty contest or a figure skating competition where marks are given for aesthetic impressions. No, Tusk wants voters to believe that it will be a battle of Europe against Russia. And whoever does not vote will forfeit Europe to Russia by default.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art40348601-michal-szuldrzynski-sondaze-wyborcze-pis-utrzymuje-przewage-tusk-mobilizuje-wyborcow -- SPECTACULAR DEFEATS, ACCUSATIONS OF TREASON. PiS CAN DO IT - WINNING ELECTIONS AND... LOSING POWER - KRZYSZTOF KATKA IN GW: “In many districts, PiS can only point to saboteurs within its own ranks or try to find answers as to why it cannot gain even a single coalition vote. The formation of coalitions after the local government elections is slowly coming to an end. It is known that PiS sensationally lost power in Podlasie after two councilors switched to the side of the October 15 Coalition. This is a spectacular defeat for the party and its regional leader Jacek Sasin, who accused his turncoat councilors of selling themselves for positions. The outcomes in Małopolska and Lower Silesia are still uncertain.” https://trojmiasto.wyborcza.pl/trojmiasto/7,35612,30966690,wygrac-wybory-i-stracic-wladze-powiaty-wymykaja-sie-z-rak-pis-u.html -- A BREAKTHROUGH IN THE KRS IS CLOSER THAN EVER. WILL TUSK ALLOW FOR A COMPROMISE? - TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ: “A compromise is therefore within reach, and its price is not excessive. However, it is worth remembering that it is Donald Tusk, who does not want compromises with the president, who holds the cards in the government camp. And it is precisely the prime minister who can effectively decide whether the reform of the National Judicial Council will have a chance to enter into force.” https://www.rp.pl/opinie-prawne/art40350831-tomasz-pietryga-przelom-w-krs-jeszcze-nigdy-nie-byl-tak-blisko-czy-tusk-pozwoli-na-kompromis -- BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Jachowicz, James Shotter, Paula Sawicka.

Łukasz Mężyk