state of play: 05/10/2024
STATE OF PLAY: PiS Recovers Losses in Opinia24 Poll, Holland: Current Government Has Practically Unchanged Policy Towards Migrants, Wójcik: Even the Energy Voucher for the Poorest is Paltry
-- FRIDAY'S POLITICAL AGENDA: GOVERNMENT RECONSTRUCTION AT 9:12 AM, GLAPIŃSKI'S CONFERENCE, PROTEST AGAINST THE GREEN DEAL - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/05/10/
-- STATISTICAL DRAW BETWEEN KO AND PIS IN OPINIA24 EUROPEAN POLL FOR TOK.FM, STRANGE 7% RESULT FOR TRZECIA DROGA: "According to the respondents' answers, Civic Coalition still enjoys the highest support, indicated by 30.8% of people decided to participate in the elections. But right behind it, with a result of 30.6%, is Law and Justice. In the March poll, the difference between them was as much as 9%. Civic Coalition then had 31% support, and Law and Justice had to settle for a result of 22%. The next grouping is The Left with a result of 9%. Confederation achieved the fourth result, with 8.3% of respondents wanting to vote for it. Third Way can count on 7.7% support. And 2.7% of participants in the poll would like to vote for the Non-Partisan Local Government Officials. Over 10 percent of respondents still do not know whom they will choose on June 9th."
https://www.tokfm.pl/Tokfm/7,103085,30957816,tego-koalicja-obywatelska-sie-nie-spodziewala-zaskakujace-wyniki.html
-- AMONG ALL RESPONDENTS, SUPPORT FOR PROTESTS HAS DROPPED FROM 78% TO 63%, BUT VOTERS OF PIS AND KONFEDERACJA STRONGLY SUPPORT THEM - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI ON THE IPSOS SURVEY: "While very high support has been maintained among the PiS and Confederation electorates, it has significantly decreased among voters supporting the parties forming the ruling coalition, and among those voting for Civic Coalition, opponents of the farmer protests have even gained a majority. This is the result of an Ipsos survey for the More in Common Polska organization conducted on April 16-18. Comparing the results with the February Ipsos survey for OKO.press and TOK FM, we see that:
- Among all respondents, support for the protests has decreased from 78% to 63%;
- very high support is still recorded among PiS supporters (it was 90%, now it is 86%) and Confederation supporters (it was 100%, now it is 86%);
- however, among KO voters, support has dropped from 65% to 36%, and 48% of protest opponents have gained a majority;
- in Third Way, support has decreased from 85% to 58%, with 57% in the Poland 2050 electorate and 57% in the PSL electorate;
- and supporters of the protests in the Left electorate have shrunk from 58% to 46%."
https://oko.press/protest-rolnikow-poparcie-coraz-bardziej-partyjne
-- IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO "HUMANELY", AS THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT SAYS, PUSH PEOPLE TOWARDS BELARUS BECAUSE THEY ARE TORTURED THERE - AGNIESZKA HOLLAND IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JĘDRZEJ SŁODKOWSKI IN GW: "No, that's a very unwise way to put it. It's not about opening the borders, especially the one controlled and manipulated by Łukaszenka. It's about methods and adherence to the law. It's also about not dehumanizing refugees who, yes, become a tool in Łukaszenka's hands, but they should be treated as human beings, in line with the values we have fought for for so long. It is impossible to "humanely", as the current government says, push people towards Belarus because they are tortured there. And it is also impossible to "humanely" force people to push themselves through barbed wire."
-- THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT HAS PRACTICALLY UNCHANGED POLICY TOWARDS MIGRANTS AND REFUGEES AT THE BELARUSIAN BORDER, IT HAS EVEN VALIDATED IT, AS HOLLAND STATES IN GW: "When I think about a topic, I am interested not only in what is happening now, but also in what may happen soon, what will happen with this topic next. Let's take 'Green Border' for example. And it turns out that despite the change of government, the film is still relevant because the current government has practically unchanged its policy towards migrants and refugees at the Belarusian border, and has even, in a way, validated it."
-- THIS WILL BE REVENGE AGAINST THIS GOVERNMENT AND AGAINST US, THE OPPONENTS OF AUTHORITARIANISM. BECAUSE THIS GOVERNMENT MUST STAND FOR VALUES - HOLLAND FURTHER IN GW: "We are witnessing the legalization of a cruel brothel. And the new government is behind it. I don't like this, of course. But I don't like something else either: that by legalizing this brothel, the Polish authorities are abandoning fundamental axiological values. This will be revenge against this government and against us, the opponents of authoritarianism. Because this government must stand for values if it wants to win against the populist, nationalist right."
https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30939133,holland-jestem-egzystencjalna-pesymistka-uwazam-ze-ludzkosc.html
-- INSTEAD OF A HONEYMOON PERIOD, WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO FOLLOW THE JOINT VICTORY OF ALEKSANDRA DULKIEWICZ AND PO, WE HAVE A BROKEN COALITION IN GDANSK - KRZYSZTOF KATKA IN GW: "Instead of a honeymoon period, which was supposed to follow the joint victory of Aleksandra Dulkiewicz and PO, we have a broken coalition in Gdańsk. The Gdańsk Civic Platform may block resolutions in the council if it does not receive at least two deputy mayor positions."
-- THE MAYOR OF POZNAŃ FROM PO IGNORED HIS PARTY'S DEMANDS - CONTINUES KATKA IN GW: "A similar conflict occurred in Poznań between the mayor and the city structures of PO. On Sunday, the city board of PO adopted a resolution obliging Mayor Jacek Jaśkowiak (a member of PO) to appoint Mariusz Wiśniewski and Marek Sternalski as deputy mayors. Jaśkowiak called it 'idiotic' and expressed hope that it was a 'one-off prank'. 'Jacek Jaśkowiak was furious. On Tuesday, after the session, he told journalists that the mayor is elected directly, and he called the attempts to pressure him by Platform 'unfortunate and idiotic'. Mariusz Wiśniewski became Jaśkowiak's deputy, but the Platform's resolution had nothing to do with it. Because the mayor has been working with him since 2014. The mayor actually ignored the resolution that ordered Jaśkowiak to appoint Wiśniewski and Sternalski as deputies,' wrote Tomasz Nyczka in the Poznań 'Wyborcza'."
https://trojmiasto.wyborcza.pl/trojmiasto/7,35612,30956440,gdanska-po-domaga-sie-stanowisk-od-dulkiewicz-jak-niegdys-od.html
-- LEFT-WING MAYOR OF ŚWIDNICA IN COALITION WITH PIS - GW: "The left-wing mayor of Świdnica, Beata Moskal-Słaniewska, ran for office in the local elections with the slogan of apoliticality. Now she has entered into a coalition with PiS."
https://walbrzych.wyborcza.pl/walbrzych/7,178336,30956977,swidnica-warta-jest-mszy-pis-od-dawna-ostrzyl-sobie-zeby-na.html
-- IF WE TAKE PRIME MINISTER DONALD TUSK'S WORDS SERIOUSLY, THE SERVICES SHOULD SOON MAKE NUMEROUS ARRESTS OF PIS POLITICIANS SUSPECTED OF SERVING RUSSIA. IF THIS IS JUST RHETORIC, WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE OUR STATE SERIOUSLY - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "But if this does not happen, then we are left with the second option. That is, shrugging our shoulders and acknowledging that the accusation of serving Russian interests is simply becoming political folklore in Poland. That since PiS could accuse Tusk of a reset with Russia and serving Berlin and Moscow, now Tusk can say that the last eight years were ruled by Russian interests and Russian influences. And then we go home, eat dinner, and acknowledge that nothing happened. But then we will not be able to take our state seriously. Either/or. And regardless of which scenario comes true, we have found ourselves in a dramatic situation."
https://www.rp.pl/komentarze/art40324701-michal-szuldrzynski-platni-zdrajcy-pacholkowie-rosji-dlaczego-tusk-tak-mocno-zaatakowal-pis
-- DONALD WILL NOT LET THIS TOPIC GO. HE WILL GRILL KACZYŃSKI WITH RUSSIAN THREADS – WE HEAR FROM AN IMPORTANT PLATFORM POLITICIAN. COMMISSION WORK MAY START IN A FEW WEEKS - KAMIL DZIUBKA IN ONET: "The matter also has a purely political dimension and it is difficult to separate it from the campaign for the European Parliament elections, which is just starting in earnest. The head of government has long presented these elections as extremely important because they concern Polish security. The context of Russian aggression against Ukraine is fundamental here. Russian threads, following the case of former judge Szmydt, are intended to hit PiS as a party that – as the prime minister suggests – only presents itself as anti-Russian, while in reality it acts in accordance with Russian interests in the European Union. - If even some PiS voters started to wonder if these accusations might be true, it would be a painful blow to Kaczyński,' we hear from the Platform."
https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/premier-uderza-w-prezesa-kaczynskiego-rosyjska-komisja-donald-nie-odpusci
-- TUSK WANTS TO FINALLY BREAK KACZYŃSKI'S WINNING STREAK. WHOEVER HARDENS MORE EFFECTIVELY, WILL WIN - RAFAŁ KALUKIN IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "The symbolic field is clearly defined: Kaczyński is fighting for his tenth consecutive victory, and Tusk would finally like to break this streak. The last time the Platform outpolled PiS was exactly a decade ago, in the European elections. And in a sense, history is repeating itself, because the mood of that campaign was determined by the Russian annexation of Crimea. Prime Minister Tusk played on the historical traumas of Poles then. He scared them by saying that if they didn't make the right choice, we could have a repeat of September 1st, when children didn't go to school. And undoubtedly, the mobilization around the flag caused the weakening Platform to narrowly outpace PiS."
-- BUDKA AND KIERWIŃSKI DIDN'T COPE? - CONTINUES RAFAŁ KALUKIN: "It is unclear, on the other hand, whether Budka was choosing to run for the EP himself or was sent there. For several months, it has been said that the prime minister is disappointed with the sluggishness of his minister, who is not coping with personnel changes in state-owned companies. Perhaps, then, the decision to replace him had been ripening for a long time, and the main person concerned had time to get used to such a prospect and has nothing against going to Brussels. More mysterious are the circumstances of Marcin Kierwiński being placed first in Warsaw by the leader. Because no one expected such a move, and especially not the Warsaw PO structures personally sculpted by this politician. Although whispers have been heard in hushed tones that Kierwiński was also not coping well in the ministry, especially when it came to police reform. However, as the secretary general of the Platform, he seemed irreplaceable in the country. Yet, he himself convinced those around him that he was leaving the government of his own volition, mainly for family reasons. It is unknown how much the loud incident related to his speech on Firefighter's Day, after which accusations of intoxication appeared, will affect this politician's campaign."
-- TUSK HAS CERTAINLY CONSCIOUSLY AGREED TO THE DEMOLITION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM OR EVEN FORCED IT HIMSELF - CONTINUES KALUKIN: "The speculations about whether they wanted to leave themselves or if the prime minister pushed them out, in reality, do not matter. Because if Tusk wanted to keep them by his side, he would have done so. Therefore, he has certainly consciously agreed to the demolition of the entire system or even forced it himself. A bit like after the gambling scandal in 2009, when during the resignations of those directly involved in it, he also removed his closest people: Grzegorz Schetyna, Rafał Grupiński, and Sławomir Nowak. Back then, he used a scalpel, of course, and now he has offered plush armchairs, but the effect is similar, because proven comrades-in-arms, the most trusted people, are leaving."
-- IT WILL NOT BE A GREAT SENSATION AT ALL IF CONFEDERATION ULTIMATELY CLIMBS ONTO THE PODIUM, WHOSE NOISY ANTI-EUROPEAN POPULISM WILL CERTAINLY BE MUCH MORE HEARD IN THE CAMPAIGN - CONTINUES KALUKIN: "In sum, however, each of Tusk's 'smaller brothers' is campaigning for small stakes. The PSL for seats for 2-3 prominent activists, on which the internal governability of this formation will depend. And Hołownia probably only for a generally positive impression, although from his perspective, these elections might not have happened at all. With poor turnout, it is expected that TD and The Left, with their most fickle electorates, will be the first to lose. And it will not be a great sensation at all if Confederation, whose noisy anti-European populism will certainly be much more audible in the campaign, ultimately climbs onto the podium."
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2255149,1,kulisy-kampanii-tusk-chce-wreszcie-przerwac-passe-kaczynskiemu-kto-utwardzi-skuteczniej-ten-wygra.read
-- THE END OF CHEAP ENERGY - PIOTR WÓJCIK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: "For a while longer, the state will subsidize electricity bills, but next year it will throw everyone into deep water. This may condemn more Polish women and men to energy poverty, but also drastically weaken the already fragile social support for energy transformation."
-- EVEN THE ENERGY VOUCHER PROPOSED BY THE LIBERALS FOR THE POOREST IS PALTRY - CONTINUES WÓJCIK: "Instead of skimping on the most important area of public policy in the coming years, the government should actually add money to assure people that they will not be left alone with the costs of energy transformation. Meanwhile, even the energy voucher proposed by the liberals for the poorest is paltry. According to calculations by Jakub Sokołowski from the Institute for Structural Research, although the voucher will cover everyone threatened by energy poverty, its amount should be twice as high – in its proposed form, it will only compensate for half of the price increase."
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/gospodarka/koniec-taniej-energii/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Alicja Chybicka, Barbara Nowacka, Tomasz Szatkowski, Tomasz Chaciński, Michał Marszałek, Stanisław Żerko.
live
48 min
17 min
„If the Government's Stance Changes, Relations Will Improve.” — Bogucki on KPRP-KPRM Relations
3 hours
„Younger Generations Must Also Participate.” — Kaczyński on Returning to Power
3 hours
„Actions Aimed at Ensuring a Victorious Election” — Kaczyński After a PiS Leadership Meeting
5 hours
„No Threat to Coalition Cohesion.” — Szłapka on Disagreements Regarding PIP Regulations
5 hours
Joint Statements After Nawrocki-Tusk Meeting? Szłapka Responds
5 hours
„The International Situation, Security Issues” — Szłapka on the Topics of Discussion During the Nawrocki-Tusk Meeting
5 hours
„We Will Talk to the EC” — Szłapka on PIP Reform and KPO Milestones
6 hours
„The Prime Minister's Decision Means New Talks with the EU Commission Are Needed. This Time They Will Be Extremely Difficult.” — Szyszko on the KPO and PIP Reform
10 hours
„Poland is becoming the promised land for many today.” — Tusk on returns from Great Britain and Germany
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