state of play: 04/16/2024
THE STATE OF PLAY: German Indifference to War Intensifies, PiS Explores Dozens of Presidential Candidates, Konfederacja Learns from Mistakes, Mentions Women, and Hides Braun
-- POWERLESS ZEITENWENDE. GERMANY DOES NOT WANT TO THINK ABOUT WAR - KAROLINA WIGURA IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "German intellectuals and experts may call for aid to Ukraine, but this does not translate into the thinking of the average Mr. Schmidt. There is to be no more war, regardless of whether it is just and defensive, or unjust and aggressive. Holy peace is preferred, even at the cost of Ukraine sharing Syria's fate, or Poland, the Baltic states, and others becoming de facto frontline countries, and in some time, the storm of war might reach Germany as well."
-- THE UNWILLINGNESS TO CHANGE ANYTHING IN GERMAN EASTERN POLICY IS FUNDAMENTALLY UNCHANGED. AND EVEN BEFORE THE ELECTIONS, PANICKED FEAR OF THE PEOPLE IS INCREASINGLY PREVALENT IN THE GERMAN POLITICAL CLASS - WIGURA CONTINUES: "However, the situation looks different now. In eighteen months, elections to the Bundestag will be held, and German politics is already beginning to revolve around this event, and it is happening in a dangerous way. Although Kharkiv is burning, power plants in Kyiv are being bombed, and Warsaw is giving its all when it comes to the Weimar Triangle, the unwillingness to change anything in German eastern policy is fundamentally unchanged. And even before the elections, panicked fear of the people, of the sovereign who does not wish for war, is increasingly prevalent in the German political class."
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/04/16/bezsilna-zeitenwende-niemcy-nie-chca-myslec-o-wojnie/
-- PROF. MAŁGORZATA STANISZKIS WOULD HAVE TURNED 82 NEXT WEEK. AS INFORMED BY THE DECEASED'S FAMILY, PROF. STANISZKIS'S FUNERAL WILL TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY (APRIL 25) AT THE CHURCH IN PODKOWA LEŚNA.
-- WE WILL REMEMBER PROF. STANISZKIS AS A BRAVE PERSON AND SCIENTIST. SHE CONTRIBUTED GREATLY TO WHAT HAS BEEN CHANGED FOR THE BETTER IN POLAND - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: "We will remember Prof. Staniszkis as a brave person and scientist. She contributed greatly to what has been changed for the better in Poland. Her journalistic testament is a call for ambitious politics, clear rules in public life, thinking, seeking development opportunities, and engaging wise and energetic people. She rejected mediocrity and fatal self-satisfaction."
https://wpolityce.pl/spoleczenstwo/688704-duzo-jej-zaslugi-w-tym-co-w-polsce-dobre
-- HE HAS EMBARKED ON A PATH FOLLOWED BY HAVEL, MANDELA, WAŁĘSA BEFORE HIM. AND HE PERSISTS ON THIS PATH - WRITES ADAM MICHNIK ON THE OCCASION OF ANDRZEJ POCZOBUT'S 51ST BIRTHDAY: "Prison is a difficult experience. Andrzej is aware that he is risking his life. Today, he looks at us from a photograph, emaciated, worn out, but heroic and unyielding. He has embarked on a path followed by Havel, Mandela, Wałęsa before him. And he persists on this path."
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30888358,michnik-do-poczobuta-jeszcze-przejdziemy-sie-po-grodnie.html
-- SIEMONIAK: MORE THAN 500 PEOPLE WERE SPYED ON WITH PEGASUS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/16/
-- PRESIDENT OF STALOWA WOLA, LUCJUSZ NADBEREŻNY, HAS JOINED THE RANKS OF POTENTIAL PIS CANDIDATES. THE NAME OF JAROSŁAW MARGIELSKI, PRESIDENT OF OTWOCK, IS ALSO BEING DISCUSSED AT NOWOGRODZKA. - SEVERAL NAMES ARE ABSOLUTELY SECRET - WE HEAR FROM NOWOGRODZKA - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: "So, who is in the 'whirlpool' at Nowogrodzka? There are even a dozen or so names. New ones are also being added. Our interlocutors assure that these include the president of Stalowa Wola, Lucjusz Nadbereżny, the president of Otwock, Jarosław Margielski, the PiS MP from Gdańsk, Kacper Płażyński (who publicly stated a few months ago that he did not intend to run), and the former deputy minister in the Ministry of State Assets, Andrzej Śliwka, who is competing in the second round of the presidential elections in Elbląg. From the 'hard PiS' faction, the former Prime Minister and Deputy Chairman of PiS, Mateusz Morawiecki, certainly has presidential ambitions. And Beata Szydło has not publicly ruled out her candidacy recently."
-- OUR CONVERSATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE EVEN SEVERAL DOZEN POTENTIAL CANDIDATES. THESE ARE POLITICIANS OF THE YOUNGER GENERATION, BUT ALSO PEOPLE FROM THE ACADEMIC AND EXPERT WORLD - GĄDEK CONTINUES.
-- IF WE WIN THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS AND GROW STRONGER, WE CAN DECIDE ON A CANDIDATE WITH GREATER FREEDOM - WE HEAR FROM A PIS POLITICIAN - GĄDEK CONTINUES.
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30887954,pis-w-tajemnicy-szuka-prezydenta-ujawniamy-kulisy-sa-nowe.html
-- KONFEDERACJA DREAMS OF BRUSSELS. IT LEARNS FROM ITS MISTAKES, TALKS ABOUT WOMEN, AND HIDES BRAUN - MICHAŁ TOMASIK IN TYGODNIK POLITYKA: "However, the ongoing local government elections have shown that the leaders of Konfederacja have learned their lesson from last October. At first glance, it is evident that they have begun working to change the image of the 'masculine' party. Although gentlemen still constituted the majority in the hall at Koneser in Praga, the greatest interest on stage and in conversations was attracted by the presented female candidates: Anna Bryłka, Konfederacja's European Affairs Director, Ewa Zajączkowska-Hernik, Konfederacja's spokesperson, and Marta Czech, spokesperson for Konfederacja Korony Polskiej."
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2252845,1,konfederacja-marzy-o-brukseli-uczy-sie-na-bledach-mowi-o-kobietach-chowa-brauna.read
-- ACCORDING TO AN IPSOS POLL FOR OKO.PRESS AND TOK FM, THE MAJORITY BELIEVES THAT THE PROPOSED CHANGES TO THE HEALTH CONTRIBUTION ARE UNFAIR. HOWEVER, THE GOVERNMENT IS DETERMINED, AND THE VOTERS OF THE COALITION, ESPECIALLY TRZECIA DROGA, WILL NOT HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THIS - JAKUB SZYMCZAK IN OKO.PRESS:
37% believe it is a fair solution,
45% – that it is not fair,
as many as 19% have no opinion.
-- AMONG KO VOTERS, HALF (51%) CONSIDER THE CHANGES FAIR. AMONG PIS ELECTORATE – ONLY 28% - SZYMCZAK CONTINUES ON THE IPSOS POLL FOR OKO: "A significant difference in responses emerges between KO and PiS voters, almost a mirror image. Among KO voters, half (51%) consider the changes fair. Among the PiS electorate – only 28%. The opposite answer is chosen by 37% of KO voters and 54% of PiS voters. There are more undecided voters among PiS voters (19% compared to 12% for KO). The question arises whether PiS voters hold these views themselves or rather follow the words of the party's representatives. PiS has strongly criticized the changes to the health contribution."
-- VOTERS OF TRZECIA DROGA ARE HEADING IN A SIMILAR DIRECTION AS KO VOTERS, BUT THEY HAVE EVEN STRONGER OPINIONS ON THIS MATTER - IPSOS CONTINUES ON THE CONTRIBUTION: "56% believe it is fair, 31% – that it is unfair. This is likely a result of Trzecia Droga adopting this issue as a political banner. Or it may be an expression that Trzecia Droga has managed to convince small entrepreneurs, who benefit most from such a contribution."
https://oko.press/skladka-zdrowotna-niesprawiedliwe-zmiany-sondaz-ipsos
-- POLAND WAS MEANT TO BE SMILING. SO I ASK, WHO CAN SMILE? ENTREPRENEURS WHO WILL PAY A LOWER HEALTH CONTRIBUTION? DEVELOPERS AND BANKS TO WHOM DONALD TUSK PROMISED FURTHER PROFITS FROM THE 0 PERCENT LOAN? - KASIA BIELECKA IN GW: "What connects the proposals listed above – all of them, although the first three are more than obvious – is the fact that they will affect the least privileged. Those for whom the cost of food constitutes a large part of their household budget. Those who anxiously await energy bills in poorly insulated buildings. Those who depend on good quality public healthcare. And so on. They will affect the working class, women earning less than 4 thousand net, and people excluded for various reasons. PiS, at least declaratively, cared for this significant group. (...) Poland was meant to be smiling. So I ask, who can smile? Entrepreneurs who will pay a lower health contribution? Developers and banks, to whom Donald Tusk promised further profits from the 0 percent loan?"
-- THE COALITION OF OCTOBER 15 IS GOING IN THE OTHER DIRECTION. IT SHOWS THAT WHAT MATTERS TO THE RULING PARTY IS THE SUPPORT OF THE URBAN MIDDLE CLASS AND FINANCIAL ELITES - BIELECKA CONTINUES IN GW: "Meanwhile, the coalition of October 15 is going in the other direction. It shows that what matters to the ruling party is the support of the urban middle class and financial elites. But what can one expect from neoliberals? I won't even mention the left. In the current situation, there is probably no longer a need to treat them any differently than as a satellite group."
https://wyborcza.biz/biznes/7,179195,30833459,zdaniem-lewaczki-lewicowym-okiem-z-lewej-strony-neoliberalowie.html
-- THE JOY AFTER THE OCTOBER ELECTIONS AND THE VICTORY OF POLSKA OBYWATELSKA WAS SHORT-LIVED. IT IS TIME FOR A SERIOUS AND CONCRETE DEBATE ABOUT A NEW VISION FOR POLAND - HENRYKA BOCHNIAZ IN RZ: "Discussions about new ideas for the health contribution also raise doubts. From public communication, I get the impression that each ministry or office has its own ideas, moreover, related to political options (see decisions of the Ministry of Labor), which no one coordinates… In this way, we lose essential synergy and time."
https://www.rp.pl/opinie-ekonomiczne/art40173041-henryka-bochniarz-gospodarka-nie-moze-czekac
-- PROPERTY TAXES TO RISE AGAIN? THE BLOW TO FLIPPERS WILL ALSO HIT BUYERS - ANALYSIS BY ŁUKASZ ZALEWSKI IN BUSINESS INSIDER: "Fundamentally, taxes fall on owners, and they pass them on to users. An increase for flippers will also hit buyers."
https://businessinsider.com.pl/prawo/podatki/kiedy-i-jaki-podatek-od-nieruchomosci-trzeba-zaplacic-uwazaj-zwlaszcza-przy-najmie/jsz5v5q
-- A COMPANY WITH REVENUES EQUAL TO 65% OF POLAND'S LAST YEAR'S BUDGET WILL BE HEADED BY A MANAGER KNOWN IN THE INDUSTRY PRIMARILY FOR POLITICAL LOYALTY - MAREK RABIJ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: "The great Orlen can therefore serve Poland, but on the condition that the state, as the main shareholder, has a plan for it, equips it with a long-term strategy, and appoints appropriate people to its management. The nomination of Ireneusz Fąfara, unfortunately, does not bode well for this."
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/nowy-prezes-orlenu-kim-jest-ireneusz-fafara-186814
-- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Poczobut, Piotr Zientarski, Karina Kostrzewa Dowgielewicz.
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