state of play: 04/13/2024

POLITICAL LANDSCAPE: Michalski on Tusk's shift right, Skrzydłowska-Kalukin questions the need for the Left, Zaremba states the Left is unsure of itself.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MORAWIECKI ON LOCAL GOVERNMENTS: WE ARE READY TO SHARE POWER BECAUSE WE ARE COMMITTED TO BUILDING A COALITION OF POLISH AFFAIRS, A BROADER COALITION, TRZASKOWSKI: TOTAL MOBILIZATION IS NEEDED TODAY - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/04/13/ -- DONALD TUSK MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTER-RIGHT, OFFERING A MORE DISCIPLINED MIGRATION POLICY AND SECURING FUNDING FOR THE BORDER WALL WITH BELARUS - CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: “Donald Tusk, who has good hearing, smell, and all other senses, is convinced that the fate of Poland, the West, and the world is being decided today on the right. He buys individuals and ideas from the left, but he has decided to conduct the real game on the right side of the field. Tusk's move towards the center-right was already visible since his change of stance on immigration policy. Months before the parliamentary elections, he was the first to publicize the visa scandal. He accused PiS – and effectively, based on facts – of, while espousing radical anti-immigrant slogans and exhibiting outright brutality on this issue, being completely ineffective and even dysfunctional when it comes to the real protection of Polish borders.” -- A POLAND WHERE THE ENTIRE RIGHT-WING IS TAKEN OVER BY THE ALT-RIGHT (AS IT IS IN THE USA) WILL BE A CORPSE - CEZARY MICHALSKI CONTINUES: “A Poland without a normal, safe, predictable, conservative, Christian-democratic right-wing will be a crippled country. A Poland where the entire right-wing is taken over by the alt-right (as it is in the USA) will be a corpse. Wise people a century ago said that what is a mere flu in the center of the West, in the center of liberal modernization, even strengthening the immunity of the body that has gone through it, can be tuberculosis or cancer on the peripheries – poorly built with unstable and easily destructible institutions. As proof, they presented Marxism.” -- THAT WOULD BE A CATASTROPHE FOR OUR STATE, FOR OUR NATION. A TOTALLY ANTI-WESTERN, TOTALLY REACTIONARY RIGHT-WING, PUSHING POLAND INTO THE ARMS OF PUTIN'S RUSSIA - CEZARY MICHALSKI CONTINUES: “Imagine the entire Polish right-wing (at least half the nation and half the parliament) speaking the language of Cejrowski, Ziemkiewicz, Braun, and even Professor Andrzej Nowak. And thinking with their ideas. That would be a catastrophe for our state, for our nation. A totally anti-Western, totally reactionary right-wing, pushing Poland into the arms of Putin's Russia.” -- MORAWIECKI HAS AN INTELLIGENT ALLY, MASTALEREK. THE PROBLEM IS THAT BOTH OF THEM ARE STILL NOT WHAT CONSTITUTES THE SUBSTANCE OF PIS. CZARNEK IS CLOSER TO THE SUBSTANCE - MICHALSKI WRITES IN INTERIA: “Morawiecki has an intelligent ally, Marcin Mastalerz. The problem is that both of them are still not what constitutes the substance of PiS. Przemysław Czarnek is closer to the substance. Given the knockout of Ziobro (due to health and with Giertych's help), Czarnek will gather the entire anti-modernization, reactionary wing of the Polish right. He is intelligent. He 'scrapped' the coalition in his stronghold, in the Lublin province. He plays the brute, but he is not one. This is undoubtedly intellect (which I respect), only harnessed to the wagon of ideas that I consider dangerous for Poland, for Europe, for people.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-przyszlosc-prawicy-przyszlosc-polski-i-przyszlosc-swiata,nId,7447389 -- PIS REALIZED THAT WITHOUT "FÜR DEUTSCHLAND" THEY DON'T GET A WORSE RESULT AT ALL, AND THE ELECTORATE DOESN'T HAVE TO BE FED SUCH MESSAGES - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS WITH PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Dr hab. Jarosław Flis from Jagiellonian University, who has been analyzing Polish election results in detail for years, has an interesting thesis in this regard, according to which PiS was even helped by having its television taken away. Its messaging was tiring for voters not involved in politics daily and had not increased support for PiS for a long time. – KO voters were no longer irritated by comments like 'für Deutschland,' which previously mobilized them. PiS, on the other hand, realized that without 'für Deutschland,' they don't get a worse result at all, and the electorate doesn't have to be fed such messages – comments the sociologist.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/prawdy-lokalne-kto-naprawde-wygral-wybory-samorzadowe-186825 -- WE DID NOT SEE THE DEFEAT OF PIS THAT THE "REVANCHISTS" WERE WAITING FOR. ALTHOUGH WE ALSO DID NOT SEE ITS VICTORY. THE LOWER TURNOUT WAS MEANT TO SERVE ITS IRON ELECTORATE, YET THE SITUATION RESULTED IN A FROZEN BALANCE OF POWER FROM THE AUTUMN OF 2023 - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ. -- AND WHEN EVERYONE NOTICED JACEK KURSKI, THE CHAIRMAN OF PIS, BEHIND THE PRESIDENT'S BACK, THE TIMES OF CRUDE PROPAGANDA FROM THE PREVIOUS GOVERNMENT'S MEDIA, WHICH DECEIVED EVEN THEIR OWN PEOPLE WITH VARIOUS ILLUSIONS, WERE IMMEDIATELY RECALLED - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RZ: “And when everyone noticed Jacek Kurski, the chairman of PiS, behind the president's back, the times of crude propaganda from the previous government's media, which deceived even their own people with various illusions, were immediately recalled. In the good years, when PiS reaped the fruits of its ambitious policy, especially socio-economic, it was not a threat. But as the fuel ran out, it started to become a nuisance.” -- IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE MAJORITY OF WARSAW RESIDENTS DO NOT NEED CHANGE, DESPITE ALL THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE PLATFORMER GOVERNMENT. THEY ONLY NEED A SENSE OF BELONGING TO THE GROUP OF EUROPEAN AND PROGRESSIVE PEOPLE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RZ: “When the PiS candidate for mayor of Warsaw, Tobiasz Bocheński, tried to speak the language of a middle-class Pole, harmed by the organizational incompetence and life-annoying ecological experiments of Rafał Trzaskowski's team, he was told he was not 'folksy' enough, and his dressing up as an urban technocrat would not work anyway. He was also not well-known enough and too poorly promoted. But it is also possible that the majority of Warsaw residents do not need change, despite all the shallowness of the platformer government, which has been in power for years. They only need a sense of belonging to the group of European and progressive people.” -- WERE I THE LEADERS OF THE CURRENT RULING COALITION, I WOULD ASK MYSELF ABOUT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THEIR STRATEGY – COVERING UP PROBLEMS – OR AT LEAST DOUBTS ABOUT THEIR POLICY – WITH POLICE-PROSECUTORIAL-JUDICIAL SPECTACLES - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RZ: “Perhaps, perhaps not. It is certainly not a harbinger of a quick, triumphant regaining of power, as PiS politicians can tell. But I would also ask myself, as the leaders of the current ruling coalition, about the effectiveness of their strategy. The strategy of covering up problems – or at least doubts about their policy – with police-prosecutorial-judicial spectacles, which simultaneously absorbed PiS politicians, making it difficult for them to play the role of a 'normal opposition.'” -- TRZASKOWSKI IS A MORE LOGICAL CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT TODAY THAN HE WAS YESTERDAY, WITH A HIGH CHANCE OF WINNING - ZAREMBA CONTINUES IN RZ: “In one matter, the currently ruling camp could gain a clear advantage in the game with the opposition. Trzaskowski is a more logical candidate for president today than he was yesterday, with a high chance of winning. Szymon Hołownia made a schoolboy error by not fielding a Third Way candidate in Warsaw, which could have led to a runoff. If this weakens the Speaker of the Sejm's presidential aspirations in the future, he can only blame himself. There is, of course, the question of Tusk's own presidential aspirations. But if Trzaskowski pushes hard, it will be difficult for the prime minister to stop him.” https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art40153031-piotr-zaremba-w-samorzadach-nie-ma-zwyciestw-ani-porazek -- SE ON THE COVER: WILL TUSK ABSORB THE LEFT? -- DO POLES NEED THE LEFT? - KATARZYNA SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “It may be that the elements of the left agenda adopted by KO currently satisfy the needs of Poles regarding human rights issues (not 'moral' issues, as they are commonly called!). The situation is similar when it comes to climate and ecology. An example of this can be the difficulty Magdalena Biejat had in differentiating herself from Rafał Trzaskowski on this issue during the election campaign for mayor of Warsaw. She could not criticize the construction of tram lines or the planned clean transport zone, and it was difficult to propose anything significantly different.” -- HOLOWNIA'S END HAS NOT COME AGAIN - SKRZYDŁOWSKA-KALUKIN CONTINUES IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Once again, they proclaimed Hołownia's end. The point is that this end has not come again. The reluctance to legalize abortion has not ended Hołownia's career, and fighting for it has not led to an increase in support for the Left. Hołownia has a better mood and better prospects after the elections than Biedroń, Czarzasty, and Zandberg.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2024/04/11/skrzydlowska-kalukin-czy-polacy-potrzebuja-lewicy/ -- WHY DO POLES NEED CZARZASTY'S LEFT? PERHAPS IT DOESN'T REALLY KNOW ITSELF - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN INTERIA: “Let's try to recall the specific proposals of the Left regarding the economy and social policy. During the parliamentary campaign, they talked about affordable housing construction, even promising to shorten working hours. But we have the right to not remember the details, since they themselves do not particularly return to their agenda. Sometimes a voice from a parliamentarian of the Together party sounds and... that's it. On a daily basis, they prefer to applaud the liberation of students from homework and patriotic readings. This is the most 'caviar' type of leftism, the work of Barbara Nowacka, who wears a KO badge. Or they eagerly participate in settling scores with PiS politicians. MP Tomasz Trela has long since become a Siamese twin of Witold Zembaczyński.” -- IT SEEMS THAT THE LEADERS OF THE NEW LEFT THEMSELVES DO NOT PARTICULARLY BELIEVE IN THE SENSE OF THEIR OWN SEPARATE EXISTENCE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “it seems that the leaders of the New Left themselves do not particularly believe in the sense of their own separate existence. In the times of SLD's power, it was primarily, as Ryszard Bugaj used to say, a 'trade union of PZPR biographies.' On the one hand, its leaders sowed doubts about the direction of capitalist transformation, but on the other hand, they also gathered post-communist businessmen who profited from this transformation. Today, threads of historical reckoning have essentially disappeared. And if they appear sometimes, the Civic Coalition with its post-Solidarity leaders also does not allow itself to be outdone, promising, for example, former SB officers the restoration of pension privileges.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-po-co-polakom-lewica-czarzastego-chyba-sama-tego-za-bardzo-n,nId,7447389 -- DID BIDEN SECRETLY TELL TUSK SOMETHING, AND HE SHARED IT WITH KOWAL? BECAUSE THEY CLEARLY SHOW THEY KNOW SOMETHING BUT WON'T SAY IT - KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “What effect do they want to achieve, predicting disaster? Should we stop paying taxes and go have fun while we can? Start packing and go somewhere where governments provide shelters? We remember – if not from family stories, then from history lessons – the arrogance of Rydz-Śmigły, who promised not to give up an inch, assurances of alliances, and then the betrayal of the elites, the escape via the Zaleszczyki road. Or did Joe Biden secretly tell Donald Tusk something, and he shared it with Paweł Kowal? Because they clearly show that they know something, but they won't say it. Donald Tusk, while not wanting to admit the possibility that Ukraine might not hold out, and Paweł Kowal has long predicted the fall of the Russian Federation's empire. But for now, although it's creaking, the empire is not falling apart at all. On the contrary: it is arming itself, increasing its army, which is now larger than in 2022, even though everyone from the first draft was supposed to die on the Ukrainian front.” -- AFTER THE FIRST HUNDRED DAYS OF THE NEW TERM, THE NARRATIVE ABOUT SECURITY HAS DISAPPEARED SOMEWHERE - PRZYBORSKA CONTINUES IN KP: “It seemed that security would be the key to the government's actions this term – that was announced in Donald Tusk's exposé. It lifted my spirits greatly then, in December. After the first hundred days of the new term, the narrative about security has disappeared somewhere, and instead, we have decadent posts on X.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/politycy-nowej-dekadencji-mowia-bedzie-wojna/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Róża Thun, Jacek Świderski, Jarosław Gugała, Maciej Knapik, Robert Biedroń, Wojciech Solarz. SUNDAY: Andrzej Gwiazda turns 89, birthdays are also celebrated by: Ewa Tomaszewska (77), Antoni Tokarczuk, Robert Górski, Arkadiusz Czartoryski, Mariusz Witczak, Tomasz Arabski.

Łukasz Mężyk