state of play: 02/29/2024

GAME STATE: Ipsos for Oko.press: Trzaskowski and Morawiecki in the Second Round, DGP and RMF Poll: PiS Has a Chance to Keep Only Two Regional Assemblies

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-- DOMAŃSKI ON ZERO VAT RATE ON FOOD: WE ARE STILL TALKING WITH PRIME MINISTER TUSK. A DECISION WILL BE MADE NEXT WEEK - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2024/02/29/ -- ALL UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT WE WILL BE STRONG. YOU DON'T ATTACK THE STRONG. YOU ATTACK THE WEAK - PRESIDENT ANDRZEJ DUDA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH THE EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF "FAKT": “- I don't believe in it (Russia's attack – ed.) because I believe we will prepare — assessed the president in an interview with the editor-in-chief of "Fakt", Michał Wodziński. — Of course, all under the assumption that we will be strong. You don't attack the strong. You attack the weak. Those who can be easily defeated – explained Duda. — I think that if Vladimir Putin knew what awaited him and his army in Ukraine, he would not have attacked Ukraine – he added”. https://www.fakt.pl/polityka/wojna-z-rosja-andrzej-duda-w-wywiadzie-dla-faktu-mowi-jednoznacznie/4bj50jn -- TODAY, RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI AND MATEUSZ MORAWIECKI WOULD COMPETE IN THE SECOND ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – ACCORDING TO AN IPSOS POLL FOR OKO.PRESS AND TOK FM - MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI ON OKO.PRESS: Rafał Trzaskowski (Civic Coalition) – 26 percent. Mateusz Morawiecki (Law and Justice) – 25 percent. Szymon Hołownia (Third Way) – 16 percent. Krzysztof Bosak (Confederation) – 10 percent. Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk (The Left) – 4 percent. Krzysztof Stanowski – 3 percent. Difficult to say – 9 percent. -- IF TRZASKOWSKI CONVINCINGLY WINS THE ELECTION FOR THE MAYOR OF WARSAW IN THE FIRST ROUND, THERE WILL BE NO REASON FOR HIM NOT TO BE THE FIRST CHOICE OF CIVIC COALITION IN THE RACE FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL PALACE - CONTINUES DANIELEWSKI ON OKO.PRESS: “If Rafał Trzaskowski convincingly wins the election for the Mayor of Warsaw in the first round, there will be no reason for him not to be the Civic Coalition's first choice in the race for the Presidential Palace, despite emerging speculation that the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Radosław Sikorski, is also eager to run”. -- MORAWIECKI PERFORMED SURPRISINGLY WELL - WRITES DANIELEWSKI ON OKO.PRESS: “Mateusz Morawiecki performed surprisingly well, consolidating the PiS electorate around himself on one hand, and on the other, doing quite well among younger voters – in this group, he is an equal rival to Trzaskowski, Hołownia, and Bosak in the first round”. -- A BITTERSWEET TASTE FOR HOŁOWNIA - CONTINUES DANIELEWSKI ON OKO.PRESS: “Our poll probably has a bittersweet taste for Szymon Hołownia, as it is the first sign that the situation from 2020 might repeat itself, when polls showed that Hołownia would win against Duda in the second round. However, they also showed that he would come in third in the first round. And that's exactly what happened”. https://oko.press/sondaz-prezydencki-holownia-przegrywa-ale -- ACCORDING TO A POLL FOR RMF FM AND "DGP", THE CIVIC COALITION WILL BE AT THE TOP – WITH A MINIMAL LEAD OVER LAW AND JUSTICE: “According to a poll for RMF FM and "DGP", the Civic Coalition will be at the top – with a minimal lead over Law and Justice. 30.6 percent of respondents want to vote for Donald Tusk's party, which is almost identical to the result obtained by Civic Coalition in the 2023 parliamentary elections. Law and Justice, on the other hand, can count on a result of 30.2 percent. The ratings of Szymon Hołownia's Poland 2050 and the Polish People's Party are growing. Over 17 percent of Poles now want to vote for the Third Way coalition, which is nearly 3 percent more than in October last year. Confederation can count on support at the level of 7.6 percent. And 8.5 percent of respondents would support The Left”. https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-samorzadowe-2024/news-sondaz-ko-stabilnie-pis-traci-kto-wygra-wybory-samorzadowe,nId,7359446 -- THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT FROM THE CURRENT SEVEN REGIONAL ASSEMBLIES, PIO MAY ONLY RETAIN TWO: PODKARPACKIE AND LUBELSKIE - GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN DGP: “– Subcarpathia will be the most difficult region for the coalition to reclaim, but the ball is still in play – emphasizes political scientist Maciej Onasz from the University of Łódź. In turn, in provinces such as Łódzkie, Małopolskie, or Świętokrzyskie, the coalition's advantage will not exceed one or two seats. A stalemate is brewing in Podlasie, because – according to the forecast – Confederation can count on two seats, and without them, it will be impossible to form a majority”. https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/wydarzenia/artykuly/9445329,koalicja-wygra-w-sejmikach-jest-najnowszy-sondaz.html -- FOR PIO AND CONFEDERATION, THE FARMERS' PROTESTS ARE ALREADY POLITICAL GOLD - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “PiS and the far-right are counting on gaining politically from the protests. The government is not fulfilling the protesters' demands. More demonstrations are ahead of us. The ruling parties are losing support, while PiS and Confederation are strengthening. Even though these are isolated survey cases and one cannot speak of a trend, it cannot be ruled out that farmers are already helping the opposition. Whether consciously? For PiS and Confederation, the farmers' protests are already political gold”. https://www.rp.pl/publicystyka/art39913681-jacek-nizinkiewicz-pis-i-konfederacja-podpinaja-sie-pod-protest-rolnikow-to-dla-nich-polityczne-zloto -- DURING THE UNITED RIGHT GOVERNMENT, THE CBA WIRETAPPED AND RECORDED THE TELEPHONE CONVERSATIONS OF DANIEL OBAJTEK - ONET HAS ESTABLISHED - AS WRITTEN BY JACEK HARŁUKOWICZ: “During the United Right government, the CBA wiretapped and recorded Daniel Obajtek's telephone conversations — Onet has established. We have learned about the inside story of the special operation conducted against the CEO of Orlen, and we also have transcripts of his conversations, which are in the special services' materials. This is a story straight out of a thriller novel. It features a famous arms dealer – the same one from whom the Ministry of Health bought faulty ventilators. There are empty flights of a Boeing chartered by Orlen to China and back, which could have cost up to a million dollars. There is even the Pope, to whom Obajtek delivered protective equipment during the pandemic that was supposed to go to Polish hospitals. CBA agents wanted Obajtek to face charges for the irregularities documented by wiretaps. Not a hair on his head was harmed. Here are the details of the secret CBA operation codenamed 'Vampiryna'. https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/obajtek-cba-i-papiez-mamy-dowody-ze-obajtek-byl-inwigilowany-za-rzadow-pis/y2y4yye,79cfc278 -- POLAND HAS MONTHS, NOT YEARS, TO PREPARE FOR WAR - CZESŁAW BIELECKI IN RZ: “This has not yet reached general awareness: we, as a society and a state, must start functioning differently. Differently than before! We are already being tested by Russia as a frontline country – our immediate neighbors”. https://www.rp.pl/opinie-polityczno-spoleczne/art39914601-czeslaw-bielecki-polska-ma-nie-lata-lecz-miesiace-aby-przygotowac-sie-do-wojny -- LADIES AND GENTLEMEN OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT COALITION, COUNTING ON THE FAVOR OF THE HIERARCHS IS A POLITICAL ILLUSION. THE CHURCH IN POLAND, FOR VARIOUS REASONS, FROM IDEOLOGICAL TO STRUCTURAL, WILL LIKELY LEAN TOWARDS A STRONG, ENDECKA AGENDA - JAROSŁAW KUISZ IN INTERIA: “So far, all the change is limited to financing in vitro treatments from the state budget, which, incidentally, was supported by some PiS MPs. It is worth remembering this, because some politicians of the ruling coalition seem to be under the mistaken impression that the hierarchs will detach themselves from PiS and in time will side with the new government. This is a misunderstanding. Or political naivety. It is enough to note how recently Archbishop Stanisław Gądecki thundered against the European Union. Ladies and gentlemen of the current government coalition, counting on the favor of the hierarchs is a political illusion. The Church in Poland, for various reasons, from ideological to structural, will likely lean towards a strong, Endecian agenda. You will gain nothing there”. https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-czy-kosciol-w-polsce-ogrywa-politykow,nId,7357264

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