-- DUAL THREAT – FROM THE EAST, FROM RUSSIA, AND FROM THE WEST, FROM TRUMP, REQUIRES NEW, BOLD THINKING ON EUROPEAN DEFENSE – TIMOTHY GARTON ASH IN OKO.PRESS: "Mourir pour Dantzig?" was the famous headline of an article in a French newspaper in 1939, arguing that French soldiers should not be pressured to die for the then Free City of Danzig. Today, that question would be "Mourir pour Narva?" – Narva is an Estonian city right on the border with Russia. No other European power possesses nuclear deterrence. I list these three levels of shocks that a Trump presidency might bring in order of their escalating importance, but also probability. Europe's priorities should anticipate this: first, Ukraine; second, greater and better-thought-out spending on conventional defense; third, to consider the escalation of nuclear deterrence. -- EVERY COUNTRY, INSTITUTION, AND DIRECTION MUST EXCEED ITS OWN LIMITATIONS – ASH CONTINUES IN OKO: "To achieve any of these goals, every country, institution, and direction must exceed its own limitations. Although it will be politically difficult, European defense orders must abandon their misdirected nationalism." https://oko.press/ash-kto-bedzie-chcial-umierac-za-narwe -- ACCORDING TO A DECISIVE MAJORITY OF THOSE SURVEYED IN THE LOCAL ELECTIONS, THE CIVIC COALITION WILL WIN. 40.1% OF THOSE SURVEYED INDICATED THIS ANSWER. 20.5% OF THOSE SURVEYED BELIEVE IN A PiS VICTORY https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/raport-wybory-samorzadowe-2024/news-najnowszy-sondaz-przed-wyborami-zle-wiesci-dla-pis,nId,7323669 -- THE PiS CHAIRMAN RIPPED DOWN A BANNER – INTERIA: Jarosław Kaczyński ripped a banner with the inscription "Smoleńsk Lie" from the hands of one person. The incident occurred during the monthly commemoration of the Smoleńsk air disaster in Warsaw. Earlier, the PiS chairman had been taunted with the words "Where is the wreckage?" https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-awantura-na-miesiecznicy-smolenskiej-prezes-pis-wyrwal-baner,nId,7323694 -- WE WANT TO KICK PiS BEYOND THE VISTULA – CIVIC COALITION POLITICIAN QUOTED BY KAMIL DZIUBKA ON ONET: "We are starting where we left off in the autumn. We are not superstitious, but there is no better place to launch an electoral offensive," one Civic Coalition politician tells us. Donald Tusk is returning from a week's vacation in Italy and will officially launch the KO's local government campaign on Sunday at a primary school in Morąg (Ostróda district). The KO's minimum goal is to take power from PiS in four regional assemblies that are currently under Jarosław Kaczyński's party's control. These are Lower Silesia, Lesser Poland, Świętokrzyskie, and Łódzkie. "We want to kick them beyond the Vistula, but we also see a real chance for PiS to lose power in their strongholds in eastern Poland. Under favorable circumstances, we could even take Podkarpacie from them," asserts a member of the Civic Platform authorities." https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/donald-tusk-rusza-z-ofensywa-wyrzucimy-pis-za-wisle/ncjgx41,79cfc278 -- WITHIN PiS, THERE IS AN AWARENESS THAT DISSATISFIED VOTERS OF THIS PARTY MAY BE MOVING TO THE SPEAKER'S GROUP – DR HAB. RENATA MIEŃKOWSKA-NORKIENE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WARSAW IN GAZETA.PL: "There is an awareness within PiS that dissatisfied voters of this party may be moving to the group of the Speaker of the Sejm. Consequently, tension is building in the hope that the Speaker will make some mistake and compromise himself. So far, he is managing somehow, and therefore, one should not expect PiS to leave him alone," she says. "We should also consider that leading PiS politicians, especially those who would like to take over Kaczyński's legacy, want to be shown in the media. Meanwhile, the media that are favorable to them today only reach the hard electorate," she adds. https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30684923,chaos-w-sejmie-politolozka-w-czerwcu-zakonczy-sie-pierwszy.html -- CZARNEK IS A SELF-IMPOSED OPTION – PROFESSORS JAROSŁAW FLIS AND ANTONI DUDEK ON THE SUCCESSION IN PiS – QUOTED BY PIOTR GŁUCHOWSKI IN GW: "This outcry does not surprise me at all," says political scientist and historian Professor Antoni Dudek. "Not long ago, I saw two 'dolphins': Czarnek and Morawiecki. Both emblematic of the radical and moderate wings of PiS. However, since Kaczyński is leaning towards radicalism, the former prime minister's chances are diminishing, and the former minister's chances are growing." "Czarnek is a self-imposed option," confirms the expert on national politics, professor of social sciences Jarosław Flis. "Attractive to the core electorate, familiar to the apparatus. Besides... who are his competitors?" -- IN HIS STYLE OF SPEAKING AND ACTING, HE REMINDS ONE OF ORBAN – PROF. MATCZAK QUOTED BY GŁUCHOWSKI IN GW: "Professor Matczak also believes that the Lublin native could be a candidate for both the head of PiS and the president: "He is incredibly brazen, capable of spouting nonsense without batting an eye. His education serves him not for doing good, but for creating tension. He has the ability to provoke opponents... In his style of speaking and acting, he resembles Orban." https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30664357,posel-pis-o-czarnku-on-juz-przemawia-jak-szef-znany-socjolog.html -- "DONALD TUSK'S DZIDZIUŚ" – IZABELA KACPRZAK IN RZ: "No one has such access and influence with Donald Tusk as Paweł Graś – he has been the prime minister's closest collaborator for nearly a quarter of a century. And the most mysterious." https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art39812491-dziwisz-donalda-tuska-dlaczego-pawel-gras-musial-wrocic-z-europejskiej-emigracji -- NO INTERVIEWS IN FOREIGN MEDIA, NO INVITATIONS. AFTER THE ELECTIONS, DUDA WENT FROM AN IMPORTANT LEADER TO A LONELY TOURIST – BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: "There are no interviews in foreign media, not even an invitation to Munich for the prestigious security conference taking place in mid-February. A year ago, at the conference, which attracts politicians, diplomats, security experts, and military personnel, the Polish president was one of the most important figures. Now, the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Radosław Sikorski, will represent Poland. Much suggests that this trend will continue. It's a shame. The president of Poland, the fifth largest country in the EU, the twenty-first largest economy in the world, should enjoy international authority. People tend to shy away from Andrzej Duda." https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30664701,nie-ma-wywiadow-w-zagranicznych-mediach-nie-ma-zaproszen-po.html -- I AM GRATEFUL THAT I MET JARUZELSKI AND DID NOT MEET DUDA – JAROSŁAW KURSKI IN GW: "Jaruzelski understood his time, especially as president. He knew he was part of a contract, that his formation was leaving the stage, that pro-Western democrats were taking responsibility for the country and should not be hindered: sign the reform laws and step down during his term when Lech Wałęsa declared his readiness to run for head of state. And Jaruzelski never broke the constitution. Will Duda follow Jaruzelski's example? Of course not, he will squander his last chance for an independent, self-directed presidency. He will be a faithful servant of PiS, just as Mościcki was a servant of the sanation regime. Neither understood anything – not even in the face of war. One fled to Romania, and the other informs the Ukrainian nation, bravely fighting the Russian invasion, that Crimea will forever remain Russian. So let's have no expectations of Duda, then there can be no disappointment." -- UNLIKE HIS PUPIL ANDRZEJ DUDA, LECH KACZYŃSKI NEVER VIOLATED THE CONSTITUTION – KURSKI CONTINUES IN GW: "But unlike his pupil Andrzej Duda, Lech Kaczyński never violated the constitution. During Russia's attack on Georgia, he behaved as he should have. Adam Michnik wrote that: 'By traveling to Tbilisi, Lech Kaczyński did the maximum he could do at that moment. It was an extraordinary situation because Georgian cities were being bombed. In such a situation, one must seek extraordinary responses. And Kaczyński found one. For the first time, I felt proud that the president of my country behaved in such a dignified manner, and at the same time, in a way consistent with Polish and my own vision of the ethos of freedom, honor, historical tradition, and political reason.'" -- WE DEMOCRATS SHOULD ALSO SPEAK THE TRUTH. WE OURSELVES HELPED DUDA WIN – JAROSŁAW KURSKI CONTINUES IN GW: "We democrats should also speak the truth. We ourselves helped Duda win. The largest opposition party had a problem with a candidate until the last moment, ultimately replacing Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska with Rafał Trzaskowski in the midst of the election campaign. Szymon Hołownia, on the other hand, did not give unequivocal support to the democrats' candidate. Trzaskowski did not engage in a debate with Duda on TVPiS in Końskie. At the time, it was not obvious, but today it is clear that an attempt should have been made." -- NOW, FOR EXAMPLE, POLSAT HAS SHOWN SUPPORT FOR PiS – JAROSŁAW KURSKI WRITES FURTHER: "Now, for example, Polsat has shown support for PiS. The candidacy of Dorota Gawryluk, obsequiously presented as 'independent,' although her close ties to the Kaczyński circle are an open secret. This is not a meme, it's real money and television reach of the oligarch supporting her, who has a lot to lose. So, much bad can still happen." https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,30659348,jaroslaw-kurski-smiejecie-sie-z-dudy-z-siebie-samych-sie-smiejecie.html -- WHAT IS PiS FIGHTING AGAINST HERE? BY FORMULATING THEIR ANTI-IMMIGRATION MESSAGE, PiS POLITICIANS HAVE PERHAPS NOT NOTICED THAT THEY ARE NOT IN THE EUROPEAN AVANT-GARDE, BUT IN THE MAINSTREAM – ARTUR BARTKIEWICZ IN RZ: "In 2015, Europe accepted migrants guided by Angela Merkel's slogan 'Wir schaffen das' (We can do it). Today, Europeans are much closer to Donald Trump's slogan 'We're full.' So, what is PiS fighting against here? (...) Despite PiS's warnings, Donald Tusk won the election. And what turned out? On January 3rd, when asked at a press conference about the relocation of immigrants, he replied: 'There will be no consent, no acceptance from us for any mandatory mechanism... Poland will not accept illegal migrants within any such mechanism.' And also: 'we will not accept any migrants.' A few days later, speaking about Poland's eastern border, Tusk stated that the new government would make efforts to further secure it. 'We will look for ways that will discourage and deter all those who are transported by (Alexander) Lukashenko,' he said. By formulating their anti-immigration message, PiS politicians have perhaps not noticed that they are not in the European avant-garde, but in the mainstream." https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39714431-imigranci-czyli-unia-z-twarza-kaczynskiego -- WARSAW RESIDENTS DO NOT NEED TO MAN THE BARRICADES AND DEFEND THE CAPITAL FROM LAW AND JUSTICE POLITICIANS. THEY CAN CALMLY SUPPORT A CANDIDATE WHOSE PROGRAM REALISTICALLY RESPONDS TO THEIR NEEDS – MAGDALENA BIEJAT IN CONVERSATION WITH ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI IN GW: "Above all, we want to present an alternative in understanding what Warsaw can be. As I mentioned, today we do not have to fear Tobiasz Bocheński taking power. Residents do not need to stand on the barricades and defend the capital from Law and Justice politicians. They can calmly support a candidate whose program realistically meets their needs. Since 2018, many people have also emerged who are dissatisfied with the policy pursued by Rafał Trzaskowski. Therefore, we want not only to bring more fresh air into Warsaw's politics but also to show that there can be people in politics who do not navigate the city solely by car but live the ordinary lives of ordinary residents. And our list will feature such people. Warsaw residents also expect this, which is why we hope that our combined forces will also translate into a good result for our candidates for councilors." https://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,30677984,magdalena-biejat-laczymy-sily-bo-nie-chcemy-popelnic-bledu.html -- IT IS ABSURD TO VOTE FOR THOSE WHO CREATE THE SYSTEM. THEY ARE THE ONES WHO HAVE LED TO A SITUATION WHERE NO INSTITUTION IN POLAND WORKS PROPERLY, WHERE LAWLESSNESS IS SPREADING, AND MORE GROUPS OF CITIZENS ARE BEING EXCLUDED – MARIUSZ CIEŚLIK IN RZ: "As a rational citizen, I have always voted for mainstream politicians and parties. I understood why people voted for Stan Tymiński, Lepper, Kukiz, Palikot, or Hołownia, but I considered their decisions absurd. Anti-establishment protest movements usually burn out quickly and, instead of new quality, bring an unknown kind of embarrassment. The self-absorbed, and reciprocally so, Marshal Hołownia is the best proof of this. People of this ilk, coming from business or show business, quickly become caricatures of politicians and disappoint hopes. That is why it seemed to me that voting for them was absurd. However, today I know that it is the exact opposite. It is absurd to vote precisely for those who create the system. They are the ones who have led to a situation where no institution in Poland functions properly, where lawlessness is rampant, and more and more groups of citizens are being excluded." https://www.rp.pl/plus-minus/art39807941-mariusz-cieslik-zaglosuje-na-stanowskiego-albo-gawryluk -- DIDN'T TUSK EXPLOIT THIS TO SHOW THE COALITION PARTNER HIS PLACE? HE DID. HOWEVER, THE CONTENT OF THIS PR MANEUVER IS JUSTIFIED – CEZARY MICHALSKI IN INTERIA: "Is it worth being more cautious when criticizing and holding the previous government accountable? It is. Couldn't Tusk have handled this more delicately? Probably. Did he not use it to show the coalition partner his place? He did. However, the content of this PR maneuver (described by most of us in the media only as a PR maneuver) is justified. When holding political opponents accountable for corruption, nepotism, clientelism... one must be as pure as Caesar's wife, or even purer." https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-piarowe-walki-z-koalicja-i-w-koalicji,nId,7321873 -- BIRTHDAYS: Alicja Olechowska, Adam Żyliński, Jacek Janiszewski. SUNDAY: Beata Kempa, Maciej Sandecki, Jan Krzysztof Ardanowski.