state of play: 09/15/2023

STATE OF PLAY: Woś on EU Establishment's Struggles, Karnowski on Immigration Campaign Advantage for PiS, Kamiński on Visa Numbers and Origins, Skiba from Pekao on Zloty Stability

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SZYNKOWSKI VEL SĘK ON EMBARGO: IF NO EU-LEVEL EXTENSION MEASURE IS INTRODUCED, A REGULATION WILL BE SIGNED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/15/ -- STAN TYMIŃSKI IS RUNNING FOR SENATE: “Stanisław Tymiński, who gained notoriety years ago for using a black briefcase, has become a candidate for the Senate representing the Slavic Union. He will be seeking votes from the residents of Bytom and Zabrze.” https://katowice.wyborcza.pl/katowice/7,35063,30187626,stanislaw-tyminski-probuje-wrocic-do-polityki-na-gornym-slasku.html -- WE ARE TALKING ABOUT SEVERAL HUNDRED VISAS, NOT SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND VISAS AS THE OPPOSITION, DONALD TUSK, AND GAZETA WYBORCZA CLAIM. THIS IS NOT TRUE - MARIUSZ KAMINSKI ON "OPEN CARDS": “The subject of this investigation, involving actions by the Central Anticorruption Bureau (CBA) and the prosecution, concerns several hundred visas issued by a few consulates to foreigners. We are verifying whether a crime occurred in the process of issuing or expediting the issuance of such visas, not hundreds of thousands, as the opposition claims and some media manipulate – he stated. – We are talking about several hundred visas, not several hundred thousand visas as the opposition, Donald Tusk, and Gazeta Wyborcza claim. This is not true – Kamiński assured.” -- OVER 80 PERCENT ARE CITIZENS OF UKRAINE, BELARUS, AND MOLDOVA. THESE ARE PEOPLE FROM OUR CULTURAL CIRCLE – KAMIŃSKI CONTINUES: “In some sectors, we need foreigners for heavy physical labor, hence permits are issued to foreigners for residency in Poland for work purposes. Over 80 percent are citizens of Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova. These are people from our cultural circle, our neighbors.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/662613-szef-mswia-opozycja-ws-wiz-chce-wytworzyc-poczucie-chaosu -- THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, THE MINISTRY OF INTERIOR AND ADMINISTRATION, THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE, AND SPECIAL SERVICES KNEW ABOUT THE MATTER - WOJCIECH CZUCHNOWSKI AND PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “There is no longer any doubt that the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Law and Justice (PiS) MP, and leader of the Łódź electoral list, Zbigniew Rau, knew about the trade in Polish visas. Interventions were directed to him not only from business organizations – such as the 'Lewiatan' Confederation or the Office of the Ombudsman for Small and Medium Enterprises – but also from the Ministry of Agriculture. Its then-head, Deputy Prime Minister Henryk Kowalczyk, pointed to problems with obtaining visas for foreigners wishing to work in the agricultural sector. Consultations between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Agriculture, and the Ministry of Interior and Administration were held on January 1 and March 29, 2023, concerning the removal of these barriers. The latter ministry is headed by Mariusz Kamiński and Maciej Wąsik, who also coordinates the special services.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,30189172,rzadowe-narady-ws-afery-wizowej-wiedzieli-o-haraczu-za-polskie.html -- A CAMPAIGN SOLELY ABOUT IMMIGRATION? THIS IS AN IDEAL SITUATION FOR PiS - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “I believe that if the opposition truly wants the entire campaign, right up to the election silence, to focus on the issue of immigration, then Law and Justice should accept this offer. It is a very attractive proposition. And there is plenty to discuss: Tusk’s lack of declarations regarding the relocation plan, the statements of MP Łącki, who said YESTERDAY that they would gladly accept thousands of immigrants (to start, of course), the stance of the Civic Platform’s support base regarding the wall on the border, the film 'Green Border,' which is a brutal attack on the Polish uniform, the statements of a German MEP who guarantees that Tusk will sign up for relocation after winning.” -- RESILIENCE DECIDES - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Ultimately, it all plays out on a mental level. Resilience decides. The outcry of the entire opposition on this matter aims to push PiS away from this topic. The opposite must be done: accept this confrontation, because it is a confrontation on the most favorable ground possible. Truly ideal.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/662629-kampania-tylko-o-imigracji-to-dla-pis-sytuacja-idealna -- HOW BRUSSELS AND BERLIN HELPED PIS WIN THE ELECTIONS - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN INTERIA: “Because those times are gone. And a real change in sensitivity and perception of Europe has occurred in Poland. The generation for whom the Union was a return to a dreamed-of Eden is leaving or beginning to leave the stage. They are being replaced by people who know Europe inside out. They are aware of its bright sides, but also its shadows. And they want to be treated equally. They also see no reason why they should be constantly lectured by the establishment in Brussels, Berlin, or anywhere else. Especially an establishment that is not very adept at solving its own problems. Neither economic, nor social, nor energy-related. And which itself has problems with anti-liberal populists undermining it.” -- THE EU ESTABLISHMENT (WITH THE BLESSING OF THE MOST IMPORTANT LIBERAL CAPITALS, INCLUDING BERLIN) DECIDED TO FINALLY TEACH THE UNFAVORED, PIS-RULED POLAND A LESSON. FOR WHAT? FOR ITS ENTIRETY - WOŚ CONTINUES: “This wasn’t one or two isolated incidents. Especially since the last European Parliament elections and the formation of Ursula von der Leyen’s European Commission, we have been witnessing a coordinated action. The EU establishment (with the blessing of the most important liberal capitals, including Berlin) decided to finally teach the disliked, PiS-ruled Poland a lesson. For what? For its entirety. And for having a different opinion on key issues (climate policy, energy security). And for the fact that Poland under PiS rule is different: right-wing, national, Catholic, conservative. And that, consequently, the liberal European elites 'somehow don't like it'.” https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/felietony/news-jak-bruksela-i-berlin-pis-owi-wybory-wygraly,nId,7025455 -- TRZASKOWSKI FOR TUSK? IT'S TOO LATE, IT WON'T HELP, AND IT WILL EVEN HARM - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Replacing Tusk with Trzaskowski would not bring significant benefits to the Civic Platform. Moreover, it would likely bring losses. It would be an obvious sign of panic, which never serves parties well. It would further destabilize the campaign so far. There would be too little time to build a new one. I repeat: these are not presidential elections. The Civic Platform still believes that a breakthrough will come with one 'golden shot' – be it a march, a replacement, one convention, or '100 concrete proposals.' But this is an illusion. Today, we are facing a clash between eight years of Civic Platform rule and eight years of PiS rule. And this comparison does not bode well for either Tusk or Trzaskowski.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/662519-trzaskowski-za-tuska-juz-za-pozno-to-juz-nie-pomoze -- TO ANSWER THE QUESTION OF WHETHER DIFFERENT POLITICS IS POSSIBLE, WE MUST ASK: ARE DIFFERENT MEDIA POSSIBLE? - MARCIN NAPIÓRKOWSKI IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Therefore, to answer the question of whether different politics is possible, we must ask: are different media possible? The answer is simple. The current state of social media and the dictatorship of algorithms are not the result of laws of physics or psychology, nor even technological limitations. They are a product of an economic model where two premises are met: media are maintained for profit, and this profit is generated predominantly indirectly, through the monetization of user attention and the sale of advertising. Each of these premises can be challenged, and this is already happening today, as part of the broad movement of 'digital democracy.' Its fundamental assumption is to recognize the connection between technology and politics and to attempt to redesign technology so that it allows us to practice the kind of politics we would want and need.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/mozesz-wygrac-te-wybory-184572 -- SKIBA FROM PEKAO: THE ZLOTY IS A GUARANTOR OF STABILITY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO MAKE STRATEGIC DECISIONS LOCALLY WHEN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS HAVE POLISH OWNERS https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/14/skiba-z-pekao-zloty-jest-gwarantem-stabilnosci-wazne-jest-podejmowanie-strategicznych-decyzji-lokalnie-kiedy-instytucje-finansowe-maja-polskich-wlascicieli/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Marcin Mastalerek, Grzegorz Osiecki, Dorota Macieja, Tomasz Jastrun, Magda Żakowska, Adam Giersz, Janusz Krasoń, and the author of Stan gry.

Łukasz Mężyk