state of play: 09/14/2023

STATE OF PLAY: The Left: We Are Smart and Angry. And We Don't Have Giertych. Pekao Vice-President: Inflation to Fall to Around 6% in December. Possible 1-2 Rate Cuts. Borys's Intervention Strengthens the Zloty. KGHM's Record Year for Investments.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- BECAUSE WE ARE SMART AND ANGRY. AND WE DON'T HAVE GIERTYCH - KATARZYNA KOTULA TELLS OKO.PRESS WHY TO VOTE FOR THE LEFT - IN A CONVERSATION WITH PIOTR PACEWICZ: “We are an opposition that is not limited to simply winning these elections to change the government. We say more – we need to go forward with a cohesive program, we have thought through what Poland should look like after PiS. We don't make random promises. And emotions? I think they are just awakening. The Left gains value when we look at the Civic Coalition's lists, where alongside progressive politicians like Barbara Nowacka, there are Messrs. Michał Kołodziejczak and Roman Giertych. Some of Donald Tusk's voters are confused by this: what are the Civic Coalition's values in the end, beyond winning the elections? We are on the same page with many politicians from PO, Nowoczesna, Zieloni, Inicjatywa Polska, but not with these two gentlemen. If someone shares Mr. Giertych's views, they can vote for KO, if they profess left-wing values, they should vote for the Left.” https://oko.press/lewica-dlaczego-na-nia-glosowac-rozmowa -- THERE IS ONE PERFECT PROOF THAT SWEEPS AWAY ALL THIS SYCOPHANCY TOWARDS THE CIVIC PLATFORM, ALL STEPS AIMED AT WEAKENING THE THIRD WAY OR THE LEFT, STRENGTHEN PIZ -- WŁODZIMIERZ CZARZASTY IN A CONVERSATION WITH KATARZYNA PRZYBORSKA IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Madam, there is one perfect proof that sweeps away all this sycophancy towards the Civic Platform. The Left did not enter the Sejm eight years ago. Since then, PiS has been in power. All steps aimed at weakening the Third Way or the Left strengthen PiS. If the Third Way or the Left does not enter the Sejm, PiS will continue to rule. For the Civic Platform to gain a majority, it should have ratings above 40% and a 10% difference between PO and PiS.” -- YOU CAN'T SAY THAT THE CIVIC PLATFORM WILL HAVE 45% BECAUSE NO POLLS INDICATE THAT. BUT THOSE 2% KEY FOR THE OPPOSITION CAN BE BROUGHT BY THE PRESENCE OF ALL OPPOSITION PARTIES ON ONE STAGE DURING THE MARCH -- CZARZASTY CONTINUES AT PRZYBORSKA: “I approached Donald a month ago and said that we should show opposition unity. What's more, that we should sign an agreement, a parliamentary pact for cooperation after the elections. 2% of voters will decide who will govern after the elections, who will be the third force. Currently, there are three options: The Left, the Third Way, and Konfederacja, all roughly at the same level. If Konfederacja loses 2%, the Left will co-create the government. If the Third Way loses 2% and isn't in the Sejm, the opposition won't have a majority. We need to talk about this. You can't say that the Civic Platform will have 45% because no polls indicate that. But those crucial 2% for the opposition can be brought by the presence of all opposition parties on one stage during the march.” -- BESIDE TUSK, THERE WAS NO LEADER FROM OTHER PARTIES -- CZARZASTY CONTINUES: “Beside Tusk, there was no leader from other parties. Robert and I were on the roof of a car, while Kosiniak and Hołownia were in the bushes.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/wybory-2023-rozmowa-z-wlodzimierzem-czarzastym-lewica/ -- JARUBAS: THE MARCH OF A MILLION HEARTS IS A PO EVENT, OUR TASK IS TO USE EVERY HOUR FOR HUNDREDS OF MEETINGS, NOT ONE RALLY IN WARSAW -- 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2023/09/14/ -- GAME OVER. I WILL NOT BE THE VICE-PRESIDENT OF ŚLĄSK. AND HERE IS THE STORY OF HOW THE WROCŁAW AUTHORITIES TRIED TO ELIMINATE AND CORRUPT AN INDEPENDENT JOURNALIST, MEANING ME – INFORMED JOURNALIST MARCIN TORZ FROM “SUPER EXPRESS” ON TWITTER: “I started to wonder how far the Wrocław authorities are willing to go to eliminate me from the media market. Me, a journalist who has exposed all the scandals of President Jacek Sutryk.” https://x.com/MarcinTorz/status/1702039186960765053?s=20 -- AN IDEA FOR THE FINAL WEEKS OF THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN. OPPOSITION, SHOW YOUR CABINET! -- MACIEJ KISILOWSKI AND ANNA WOJCIUK IN GW: “It should be a government with names that inspire, and above all, convince the undecided voters in the center. However, the ball is still in play. Kaczyński can still be defeated, the disadvantages of divisions can be neutralized, and the worrying upward trend of PiS in the polls can be reversed. In addition to the sensible direction of presenting program postulates by each of the four anti-PiS groups (KO, Lewica, PSL, and Polska2050), one more bold move by the opposition as a whole is needed: presenting an attractive, competent, ready-to-govern coalition cabinet. With names that inspire, and above all, convince the undecided voters in the center.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,30184312,pomysl-na-ostatnie-tygodnie-kampanii-wyborczej-opozycjo-pokaz.html -- THE PIS SPOT WITH KACZYŃSKI AND A CAT WAS MEANT TO BE A SOCIAL MEDIA ATOMIC BOMB DROPPED ON THE KO CONVENTION -- JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “- The Chairman has his value and is a social media atomic bomb. When the Chairman appears in a spot and as an actor, it is known that there will be huge reach - we hear from someone in the ruling camp. (...) Another interlocutor close to Nowogrodzka: - Using Kaczyński's image on social media is indeed an atomic bomb. That's why we decided to drop it on PO's most important convention of this campaign. And the reach? On Twitter alone, about 3 million views, plus a lot of material on portals and in television. - The popularity of the spot is a side effect. The main goal was to prevent the Civic Platform from talking about their own ideas from the program convention, and instead to focus on our spot - says someone close to the PiS campaign staff.” -- WE HAD TO THROW SOMETHING AT THEM SO THEY WOULD FOCUS ON SOMETHING ELSE -- FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM PIS POLITICIANS IN GĄDEK'S TEXT: “- The Civic Platform spent more on their convention and it actually looked better than ours. There was a fear that they could change the trend in their favor. We had to throw something at them so they would focus on something other than their own program - explains someone from the Nowogrodzka circle.” https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,30185442,pis-odpalilo-social-mediowa-bombe-atomowa-ale-teraz-zmienia.html -- AS MANY AS HALF OF THE "UNDECIDED" (49%) ARE POTENTIAL KO VOTERS -- PIOTR PACEWICZ ON THE IPSOS SURVEY FOR OKO.PRESS: “As can be seen, as many as half of the "undecided" (49%) are potential KO voters, which confirms the assumption that the worse result for Tusk's party is due to some voters drifting to the "undecided" category. It is possible that the March of a Million Hearts on October 1st will encourage them to return. What reserve lies here? Just calculate 49% of 14% of the "undecided", which gives (0.49 x 0.14) 6.9% of voters.” -- 42.2% IS DONALD TUSK'S CEILING. THAT'S APPROXIMATELY WHAT PO HAD IN THE 2007 ELECTIONS -- PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “Potential KO voters are 25.2% in the party electorate plus 10.1% in other electorates plus 6.9% among the "undecided". This means a total of 42.2%. This is Donald Tusk's ceiling. That's approximately what PO had in the 2007 elections (41.5%).” https://oko.press/sufit-tuska-wyzej-sondaz -- THREE DECADES OF HATRED TOWARDS THIS POLITICIAN CONDUCTED BY THE BROADLY UNDERSTOOD MICHNIK CAMP, FULL POWER OF MEDIA ASSOCIATED WITH TUSK IN THE INDUSTRY OF CONTEMPT FOR THE PIS LEADER, POP CULTURE ENGAGEMENT, AND IN THE END, PRESIDENT KACZYŃSKI'S EYE NEEDS TO BE ENLARGED -- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Incidentally, this is amazing: three decades of hatred towards this politician conducted by the broadly understood Michnik camp, full power of media associated with Tusk in the industry of contempt for the PiS leader, pop culture engagement, and in the end, President Kaczyński's eye needs to be enlarged. Because they decided that with his own eye, he is not frightening. This observation does not change the fact that apparently the most progressive and most European political party uses vulgar graphic techniques to discredit a political opponent. In thousands of copies, it reproduces such a falsified image, likely during breaks between conferences about the need to fight hate speech. There are no bigger haters than them. Not in Poland, and not in Europe.” -- GERMAN VOTERS ARE DIFFERENT, THEY DESERVE A SUBSTANTIVE CONVERSATION -- KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “In each of these threads, German interests dictate saying "yes" in the referendum. That's why Tusk avoids simple referendum questions - resorting to plain lies, unconfirmed accusations, attempts to overturn election results, and pure hate speech, for which he has received permission from the "enlightened" rulers of Europe. After all, we are talking about Poles, they can be offered politics as vulgar as Tusk does. German voters are different, they deserve a substantive conversation. Double standards are, after all, an increasingly brazenly offered European standard.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/662397-dlaczego-niemieckie-media-milcza-o-bluzgach-tuska -- THE GÓRALE DON'T WANT REVOLUTION, NEITHER IN THEIR SMALL ISTEBNA WORLD NOR IN POLAND. - MANY PEOPLE ARE AFRAID THAT IF THE GOVERNMENT CHANGES, THE RULERS WILL INTRODUCE NEW ORDER -- GW REPORTAGE FROM ISTEBNA (Ewa Furtak): “The Górale don't want a revolution, neither in their small Istebna world nor in Poland. - Many people are afraid that if the government changes, the rulers will introduce new order. Some politicians and their voters mock the Church, the believers - one of the Górale told us at the harvest festival. Another added: - No one will convince us that people in the countryside haven't seen their lives improve. Before PiS, people often couldn't even afford to send their child to the theater in Bielsko-Biała.” https://bielskobiala.wyborcza.pl/bielskobiala/7,88025,30180125,pojechalismy-na-dozynki-do-istebnej-gdzie-wielkie-poparcie.html -- SUDDEN STRENGTHENING OF THE ZLOTY. WHAT'S HAPPENING? INDICATIONS POINT TO PAWEŁ BORYS'S INTERVIEW FOR BLOOMBERG -- MARIA MAZUREK IN GAZETA.PL: “He said that the Polish government has the tools to strengthen the zloty back to an "optimal" level. This indicates that according to Borys (and likely the government), the zloty is currently not at an optimal level, which was defined by the PFR head as a range of 4.4 - 4.6 zlotys per euro. "The government has instruments that proved effective in striving for an optimal exchange rate in 2022," Borys recalled in an interview with Bloomberg. It is difficult to expect that a person who is formally not decision-making in this matter - he is the head of PFR, not a member of the government, although he is sometimes seen as Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's "right hand" in economic matters. However, his words were echoed by Deputy Finance Minister Artur Soboń. "A stable zloty is very important for the government. A zloty level between 4.40 - 4.60 to the euro supports exports and, on the other hand, a decrease in inflation. The Polish economy has strong fundamentals and the government showed in 2022 that it has tools, including temporarily reducing liquidity," he wrote on X (formerly Twitter).” https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,151003,30184645,nagle-umocnienie-zlotego-co-sie-dzieje-wskazania-na-wywiad.html -- VERBAL INTERVENTION ON THE ZLOTY. PAWEŁ BORYS ON THE GOVERNMENT HAVING TOOLS TO STRENGTHEN THE ZLOTY. THE EFFECT ON THE CHART -- ECONOMISTS FROM PEKAO SA WROTE ON X: "Verbal intervention on the zloty. Paweł Borys on the government having tools to strengthen the zloty. The effect on the chart." https://twitter.com/Pekao_Analizy/status/1701881043542827202? -- PEKAO VICE-PRESIDENT: INFLATION TO FALL TO AROUND 6% IN DECEMBER. POSSIBLE 1-2 RATE CUTS -- AS BANK PEKAO VICE-PRESIDENT PAWEŁ STRĄCZYŃSKI STATES IN AN INTERVIEW WITH WNP.PL: “- I expect that by the end of this year, in December, inflation will fall to around 6 percent. Our bank's analysts predict that we can expect one more, or perhaps even two, interest rate cuts. The cut will likely be 50 basis points. This means the basic interest rate, in our assessment, will be around 5 percent in December - Bank Pekao Vice-President tells WNP.PL.” -- IN OUR CALCULATIONS REGARDING FUTURE INFLATION, THE PRICE OF CRUDE OIL AT $80 PER BARREL IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT, AS WELL AS THE CURRENT SLIGHTLY HIGHER DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE -- STRĄCZYŃSKI FROM PEKAO CONTINUES: “In our calculations regarding future inflation, the price of crude oil at $80 per barrel is taken into account, as well as the current slightly higher dollar exchange rate. If there are no additional shocks, for example, if the price of oil jumps to $100-120 per barrel, and the dollar exchange rate rises to five zlotys, we will still see a downward inflation trend - forecasts the Vice-President of Bank Pekao.” https://www.wnp.pl/finanse/tak-beda-spadac-stopy-procentowe-w-tym-roku-mamy-prognoze-wiceprezesa-banku-pekao,751339.html -- KGHM POLSKA MIEDŹ'S RECORD YEAR IN TERMS OF INVESTMENTS: “KGHM Polska Miedź is not slowing down with investments. – This year we have planned a record level of investments, both tangible and capital. I think this will build a good foundation for the development and good results of KGHM Polska Miedź in the coming years – said Mateusz Wodejko, Vice-President of KGHM Polska Miedź, in an interview conducted during the XXXII Economic Forum in Karpacz. Among the investments, he pointed to the expansion and extension of mining fields. He recalled the construction of shaft GG-1 in Kwielice. This is one of the most important investments in the history of the copper giant and the largest underground project in the non-ferrous metals industry in Europe. https://www.forbes.pl/biznes/kghm-stawia-na-inwestycje/9vwjqn8 -- BIRTHDAYS: Jerzy Zelnik, Małgorzata Hajewska-Krzysztofik, Joanna Mihułka.

Łukasz Mężyk