state of play: 10/14/2020

GAME STATE: Wielowieyska: Kaczyński's EU Stance is a Negotiating Position, Liziniewicz: A Chance for a Reset as Attacks on Poland Fuel Anti-EU Sentiment, Sierakowski: The West Won't Do Anything to Lukashenko, EU Took Two Months to Impose Sanctions

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SASIN ON DESERVED RESPECT FOR DOCTORS, BUT ALSO THAT ONLY 5% RESPOND TO THE GOVERNOR'S CALL TO FIGHT THE PANDEMIC, TRZASKOWSKI ON THE VISTULA'S WATER LEVEL THREATENING THE PONTOON BRIDGE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/10/14/ -- 1400 PEOPLE INJURED DURING BLOODY INTERVENTION IN MINSK - BELSAT: https://belsat.eu/pl/news/mediazona-bielarus-prawie-1400-osob-rannych-podczas-protestow-w-minsku/ -- IT'S GETTING HARDER FOR ENFORCERS TO DEFEND THE DICTATOR AS THEY FACE SOCIAL OSTRACISM - SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI ON BELARUS IN ONET: “It is becoming increasingly difficult for enforcers to defend the dictator. They are facing increasingly painful social ostracism. The best proof of this is how much they hide from people. They appear without any identification, like common thugs; no car has a license plate, while every OMON officer wears a balaclava, and militiamen wear masks and caps. Recently, sunglasses have also been added. If they are only enforcing the law, what do they have to hide? When their balaclavas are removed, fear immediately grips them. The behavior of those in power looks increasingly pathetic. Sending cherry pickers for every flag and people to paint over symbols of chase and other resistance not only costs money but is completely ineffective, because the flags and symbols return the next day. Belarusians expose the regime's stupidity and helplessness by hanging sheets with the inscription 'This is not a flag,' which officials are rushing to take down.” -- THE WEST WON'T DO ANYTHING TO LUKASHENKO, IT TOOK THE EU 2 MONTHS TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS - SIERAKOWSKI CONTINUES: “The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus announced through the first deputy minister Gennady Kazakovich that 'The militia and internal troops will use special means and combat weapons if necessary,' which can be interpreted as an attempt to intimidate people, but the trend shows that the worst-case scenario cannot be ruled out. The West won't do anything to Lukashenko. It took the European Union two months to impose sanctions on forty officials. Lukashenko was not included. Only Monday's summit of EU foreign ministers was supposed to change that. Monday showed that Belarusians did not back down from intimidation, and nothing suggests otherwise.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/protesty-na-bialorusi-sierakowski-zaplonely-opony-i-znow-padly-strzaly-w-minsku/zd0h4ps -- AT THIS SCALE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD COPE - MAREK BALICKI IN CONVERSATION WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Given the scale of infections we have, I'm more concerned about cases with severe symptoms requiring hospitalization. At this scale, the healthcare system should cope. On Monday, there were about 400 free ventilators. We have thousands of ventilators in Poland, and less than a thousand are designated for fighting COVID. At this level, therefore, despite limited controllability, the system should be able to cope.” https://www.rp.pl/Wywiady-i-rozmowy/201019743-Marek-Balicki-Byc-moze-trzeba-bedzie-wrocic-do-lockdownu-choc-to-szkodliwe.html -- HE APPEARED EMBARRASSED AND INTERESTED IN SOLVING PROBLEMS - KRZYSZTOF GAWKOWSKI ON THE PRIME MINISTER AT A MEETING WITH THE OPPOSITION - in a report for Agata Szczęśniak in Oko: “'They wrote down our questions. 'We will check,' 'we will prepare,' 'we will implement,' 'we will support the bill.' Putting a brave face on a bad situation. Prime Minister Morawiecki appeared embarrassed and interested in solving problems. He spoke with concern, with a certain sense of responsibility,' Gawkowski recounts.” https://oko.press/jest-dobrze-ale-nie-beznadziejnie-kulisy-rozmowy-piontkowskiego-i-morawieckiego-z-opozycja/ -- KACZYŃSKI'S STATEMENT IS A CHANCE FOR A RESET, ATTACKS ON POLAND FUEL ANTI-EU SENTIMENT - JACEK LIZINIEWICZ IN GPC: “There is finally a chance to burst this 'rule of law' balloon and finally end the regular attacks on Poland. This is becoming a problem in our country because, along with these essentially senseless scoldings, the anti-EU movement is growing here. This is dangerous in our geopolitical situation. Therefore, at some point, the 'reset' button must be pressed. I have the impression that Jarosław Kaczyński's announcement could also be a chance for EU politicians to save face by rejecting their babble about the rule of law in favor of the value of European unity. They will not have a better opportunity to restore reason. All that is needed is to seize this chance and address real problems, rather than imposing their cultural policy.” https://niezalezna.pl/357568-przywrocic-rozsadek -- WE WILL BE LEFT ALONE WITH OUR PROBLEMS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CRISIS, AND BIDEN'S VICTORY WILL LEAVE US WITHOUT ALLIES - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Implementing Kaczyński's declaration means a practical Polexit and loss of funds for Poland. We will be left alone with our problems in the midst of an economic crisis. Without geopolitical allies, especially if Joe Biden wins the US elections. The nightmare we have been warding off for years is becoming a reality.” -- KACZYŃSKI IS TAKING A NEGOTIATING POSITION - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “There is, of course, another interpretation of the president's interview. Kaczyński knows very well everything Morawiecki is talking about. With his threats, he wants to soften up the EU institutions, which have never been confrontational and do not want a clash. They prefer endless dialogue over attack. And Kaczyński is already taking a negotiating position and playing a charade where he plays the bad cop and Morawiecki the good cop.” -- THE PRESIDENT IS PRINTING A PAMPHLET FOR THE HARDCORE ELECTORATE BECAUSE ZIOBRO IS ALREADY SECURING HIS POSITION FOR AN INDIVIDUAL RUN - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Furthermore, the president is giving such an interview because he wants to print a separate pamphlet for the hard PiS electorate, whom Zbigniew Ziobro and his Solidarna Polska are currently courting. Ziobro is indeed counting on the possibility that he will eventually fall out of Zjednoczona Prawica. Therefore, he is already securing his position today and poaching supporters from PiS.” -- THE WAVE OF EUROSCEPTICISM MAY GAIN STRENGTH EVEN AGAINST KACZYŃSKI'S INTENTIONS - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Whatever interpretation of the president's words is true, PiS has been pursuing a very harmful policy of discouraging Poles from the European Union from the very beginning. This, as we have been warning for a long time, can trigger very dangerous mechanisms, difficult to stop even by the president himself. It may turn out that an increasing wave of Euroscepticism will gain strength even against Kaczyński's intentions. A wave further supported by Putin's anti-EU propaganda will prove so high that it will lead to a real disaster, similar to what happened in Great Britain. That is, a real Polexit.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,26393598,wprowadzenie-w-zycie-deklaracji-kaczynskiego-oznacza-praktyczny.html -- EVERYONE WILL MISS THE TIMES WHEN THEIR MAIN PROBLEM WAS THE RULE OF LAW IN POLAND AND HUNGARY - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ: “Both sides of the dispute over linking the rule of law to the disbursement of the Recovery Fund are resorting to increasingly strong words, making it increasingly difficult to reach a compromise. It will also suffice for it to be rejected by one of the 27 national parliaments, and the entire construction will collapse. This would have dire consequences not only for our region. It is not difficult to predict that the disappointed Italians and Spaniards, whom Brussels abandoned when the wave of immigrants reached their shores, would turn away from the Union entirely. The rise to power in Rome of Matteo Salvini, who in the past wanted to lead Italy out of the eurozone, could pose an existential threat to integration. Then everyone would miss the times when their main problem was the rule of law in Poland and Hungary.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/201019746-Jedrzej-Bielecki-Unia-jak-rozbujany-statek.html -- EACH TIME THE GOVERNMENT WAS CYNICALLY DECEIVED IN BRUSSELS - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “The United Right government sought an agreement. At least twice, it trusted the declarations of its partners. First, during the discussion on judicial reform, and now regarding the EU summit on the budget. Each time, it turned out that it had been cynically deceived. Someone will say: that was known from the beginning. However, I understand those who believe that it was impossible not to try. Poland has no choice; it must draw a red line. Such a blatant attempt to break our sovereignty, as we are currently facing, cannot be ignored or overlooked. From this battle – that's how it looks – there is no escape. Not our choice.” -- IF GERMANY WANTS TO DESTROY THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURE THAT PROVIDES THEM WITH GREAT PROFITS, WE CANNOT FORBID THEM TO DO SO - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “If Germany wants to destroy the political and economic structure that provides them with such great profits, that has effectively given them something like an empire, that dreamed-of Mitteleuropa, we cannot forbid them to do so. Of course, they assume it will be a transitional period that will first blow up the governments of Orban and Kaczyński, and then allow them to pacify the rebels once and for all, but they should not be 100 percent sure of that. Once large political processes are set in motion, they rarely yield predictable results. I repeat: this is not Poland's choice. It is primarily Germany's choice. And history will recognize this one day, just as, despite smoke screens, deceptions, and trickery, it recognized who started both World Wars.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/521857-skoro-niemcy-chca-zniszczyc-ue-nie-mozemy-im-tego-zabronic -- SUPREME COURT FROM 120 TO 70 JUDGES - DGP: (Małgorzata Kryszkiewicz, Grzegorz Osiecki, Tomasz Żółciak): “The Supreme Court with 70 judges (today there are planned to be over 120), without cassation powers, but with a strengthened Disciplinary Chamber – this is one of the concepts being considered in the government camp.” https://prawo.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1493406,sad-najwyzszy-reforma-wymiaru-sprawiedliwosci-pis.html -- POLITICAL CHANGE WILL RESULT NOT ONLY FROM PIS SLIDING DOWN THE SLOPE OF ARBITRARINESS BUT ALSO FROM THE GROWING SENSE THAT MORE EQUALITY IS NEEDED - MACIEJ GDULA IN A LENGTHY DISCOURSE IN KRYTYKA: “I am increasingly convinced that political change will result both from the PiS team sliding down the slope of arbitrariness and from the growing sense that not so much more freedom is needed, but above all equality. This demand for equality may become a common denominator for those pushed to the margins, people disappointed by the excesses of power, angry at its impunity, and tired of the uncertainty it causes. After all, don't most Polish women and men want equal treatment?” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/marksizm-kulturowy-neomarksizm-gender-pis/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Tomasz Sawczuk, Grzegorz Czelej.

Łukasz Mężyk