state of play: 08/06/2020

POLITICAL ARENA: Obajtek: A Russian Company Cannot Be a Co-owner of the Gdańsk Refinery; Szułdrzyński: Disproportionate State Reaction Will Fuel a Spiral; Dudek: President’s Veto on Audit Chambers Saved Local Governments; Jagiellonians on Elite Classism

Łukasz Mężyk

Photo: Jakub Szymczuk -- GOD BLESS POLAND - THE PRESIDENT’S ADDRESS TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, THE PRESIDENTIAL COUPLE LAYING A WREATH AT THE RECENTLY DESECRATED FIGURE OF CHRIST ON KRAKOWSKIE PRZEDMIEŚCIE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/08/06/ -- PKN ORLEN CEO DANIEL OBAJTEK ON THE FACT THAT NO RUSSIAN CONCERN WILL BECOME A CO-OWNER OF THE GDAŃSK REFINERY - IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MICHAŁ NIEWIADOMSKI AND TOMASZ FURMAN IN RZ: “I see no chance for a Russian oil company to become a co-owner of the Gdańsk refinery. It will be Orlen that decides what partner it will have in this transaction, not the European Commission. Additionally, it will be a strategic partner for us, from whom we expect the contribution of some assets in return, rather than a financial settlement. It's about exchanging assets with a global player in countries where we already do business. It is also possible for them to contribute exploration and production assets in oil and gas, or to ensure attractive raw material supplies to our refineries, or to acquire additional know-how. What exactly we can gain will be the subject of negotiations. Orlen has extensive experience in conducting successful negotiations, as well as in managing a company to which the refinery will be transferred. For many years, together with the Italian Eni and the British-Dutch Shell, we were shareholders in Czech refineries, operationally controlled by Unipetrol. Furthermore, I want to reiterate that the merger of Orlen with Lotos is intended to benefit primarily both concerns, shareholders, including the State Treasury. Moreover, it will strengthen our country's energy security. Orlen has conducted analyses in this regard, and we are now consistently striving to ensure that our assumptions are met.” -- ORLEN ALREADY DERIVES 60% OF ITS REVENUE OUTSIDE POLAND - OBAJTEK CONTINUES: “It is important to look at the market not only through the prism of our country, but of the entire region where Orlen has its assets. Already today, approximately 60% of our revenue is generated outside Poland. Exchanging 30% of shares in the Gdańsk refinery gives us the opportunity to establish or increase our stake in various industries in foreign markets. We are doing everything we can to seize this opportunity.” -- WE ARE LOOKING AT WHAT THE MARKET WILL LOOK LIKE IN 15 YEARS, WHICH IS WHY WE ARE INVESTING IN ZERO EMISSIONS - OBAJTEK CONTINUES IN RZ: “We cannot only look at what is happening in the market now. It is necessary to think prospectively, about what the market will look like in 10 or 15 years. In this context, we must invest in zero- and low-emission energy sources. The construction of wind and photovoltaic farms or gas power plants requires enormous sums of money, but it is necessary. The same applies to future hydrogen and biomethane production. Why should we compete and duplicate ongoing research and investments if we can consolidate them and thus achieve much better and faster results for the same money?” -- WE CANNOT COMPETE WITH EACH OTHER IN POLAND BECAUSE THE EUROPEAN MARKET WILL NOT HAVE ROOM FOR SO MANY ENTITIES - OBAJTEK CONTINUES: “To put it bluntly, the takeover of Lotos is a step in this direction, but not the goal. The acquisition of the PGNiG group will be a very big step in this regard. We must take these steps because, in the long term, there will be no room for all current players in the broadly defined fuel and energy sector on the European market. There will also be no room in our region, which is why we need to establish as soon as possible who will hold the number one position here. If in Poland we compete among ourselves or even hold a leading position, but only in specific segments of the fuel and energy market, we may lose the competition to concerns like Hungary's MOL or Austria's OMV. By consolidating in Poland, we have a chance to decide once and for all who will be the leader in our region, and that is our goal. We face a difficult and costly energy transformation process. To carry it out, we need funds for investments. These acquisitions are intended to serve this purpose.” https://www.parkiet.com/Surowce-i-paliwa/308069999-Daniel-Obajtek-prezes-PKN-Orlen-Chcemy-miec-w-regionie-pozycje-numer-jeden.html -- THIS TERM MAY BE EVEN MORE AMBITIOUS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Beautiful, important words. An important day for every Polish patriot. The announcement that Poland remains an ambitious country, commensurate with our demographic, geographical, economic, and historical stature. After the inauguration of President Andrzej Duda, one thing is certain: this term will be as ambitious as the first. And perhaps even more so. Because the constant pressure for further elections is gone. Many believe this must mean a reluctance for reforms. But I believe it will be the opposite. I would not be surprised if, in several difficult matters, Andrzej Duda himself takes on the burden of fighting for their repair.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/512344-ta-kadencja-dudy-bedzie-rownie-ambitna-jak-pierwsza -- A DISPROPORTIONATE STATE REACTION WILL FUEL A CATASTROPHIC SPIRAL OF IDEOLOGICAL WAR - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The Polish state, unable to cope with the pandemic, reacted with complete exaggeration. The police detained activists overnight, even though the act they committed is not punishable by imprisonment, but only by a fine or community service. The disproportionate nature of these actions suggests that the authorities are interested in inflaming the issue. Activists who wanted to attack a symbol sacred to Christians have been made martyrs in the fight for freedom and tolerance. One can soon expect another provocation and another disproportionate state reaction. And so the spiral will continue to spin, incidentally fanning extreme sentiments on both sides, pushing the radical right towards even greater hatred of LGBT people, and the radical left towards even greater hatred of PiS and the Church allied with it. This is certainly in the interest of the rulers, as nothing mobilizes their supporters like a culture war, but for our already deeply divided society, an ideological war is a catastrophe. Will anyone stop this madness? https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/308059896-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Przerwijmy-to-szalenstwo.html -- PROF. ANTONI DUDEK ON THE SITUATION IN BELARUS AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PRESIDENT DUDDA'S MEDIATION - SPEAKS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH BARTŁOMIEJ PATUREJ IN ONE: “Perhaps an opportunity will soon open up for Andrzej Duda to become involved in Eastern politics. If the situation in Belarus were to evolve in a direction known to us from Ukraine years ago, then the Polish president, following Kwaśniewski's example, could hypothetically try to play a mediator role there. However, he would need appropriate footholds, and there is no indication that he took care to create them in his first term.” -- THE PRESIDENT'S VETO ON THE AUDIT CHAMBERS LAW IS UNDERESTIMATED AND SAVED THE INDEPENDENCE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENTS - DUDEK CONTINUES: “I have already mentioned that, in addition to the constitutional referendum initiative, the president blocked the law concerning regional audit chambers. This veto is underestimated, and in my opinion, at least for now, it has saved the independence of local government. On the other hand, the president's refusal to change the electoral law for the European Parliament meant that today we do not have only MEPs from Civic Coalition and United Right.” -- IF THE SECOND TERM IS LIKE THE FIRST, IT WILL BE AN EXAMPLE OF POLITICAL MASOCHISM - DUDEK CONTINUES: “If, however, Andrzej Duda's second term looks like the first, we will be dealing with a unique example of political masochism. There is such an extremely rare type of person involved in politics who cannot break free from their mentors and, despite the humiliations they endure from them, remains faithful to them.” -- THE PRESIDENT SHOULD PLAY A BEHIND-THE-SCENES ROLE IN DIALOGUE WITH THE OPPOSITION - DUDEK CONTINUES: “Poland's greatest curse remains the overturning of many, even the most sensible, projects of predecessors. Therefore, these programs should be developed in agreement between the government and the opposition. This is so that they can be implemented even if PiS loses power. Because it will lose power someday. And this is where I would see the role of the president, whose expert background could become a forum for developing these projects with the participation of specialists associated with both PiS and the opposition. Of course, this cannot happen in front of cameras, because nothing will come of it. But no one else has a better starting position in Poland today to initiate this process than Andrzej Duda.” https://www.onet.pl/informacje/onetwiadomosci/zaprzysiezenie-andrzeja-dudy-jak-prezydent-zostanie-zapamietany/c3rl1y7,79cfc278 -- ELITE CLASSIST OPINIONS ARE FUEL FOR POLITICAL POPULISM - KACPER NOWINA-KONOPKA AT THE JAGIELLONIAN CLUB: “The elections are over. Many are thoughtlessly repeating the diagnosis of the results known from the previous vote: ‘Stupid, poor, from small towns voted for X, educated, rich, from larger cities voted for Y.’ Firstly, this is classism, and secondly, it is untrue. By presenting such a diagnosis, we activate an action-reaction mechanism. In reaction to the classist opinions expressed by the liberal part of society, fuel for political populism is generated. Furthermore, a deep aversion to the environment of the ‘elites’ is built. This is an opinion that is harmful to thousands of educated people, residents of large cities, or wealthy individuals.” -- IT IS UNDERSTANDABLE THAT PEOPLE WHO FELT IMPROVEMENT UNDER THE UNITED RIGHT GOVERNMENT HAVE ONCE AGAIN GIVEN IT THEIR SUPPORT - KACPER NOWINA-KONOPKA CONTINUES: “The accusation of being bought for ‘500 silver coins,’ abstracting from its rhetoric, would make sense if the aforementioned social program were an unwarranted expenditure of a large amount of money for a purpose that would not have been achieved with it. Although 500+ did not lead to an increase in fertility, it turned out to be a program that significantly reduced poverty in Poland. It is therefore completely understandable that people who felt an improvement under the United Right government decided to give their support to this grouping again.” -- DENYING LESS EDUCATED AND POORER PEOPLE RATIONALITY IS CLASSISM - KACPER NOWINA-KONOPKA CONTINUES: “One can have completely different priorities and believe that the state should allocate resources in a completely different way. However, it is worth realizing that representatives of the working class have arguments that are correct from their point of view, which lead them to support a given political option. Denying them rationality because they have less money, are less educated, or are beneficiaries of social programs is an example of classism in its full glory.” -- CLASSISM IS DESTRUCTIVE - KONOPKA'S CONCLUSION AT THE JAGIELLONIAN CLUB: “Firstly, classism is destructive to the political sphere, as it uses the mechanism of distributing respect. Rejected, ‘cursed’ members of classist-judged groups have always been and will be easy prey for populists, who, with their political program, can offer the scorned groups a promise of equalizing material opportunities and restoring dignity. As Hanna Arendt said, politics is a promise of freedom and equality. Unfortunately, the price for a populist offer is agreement to polarizing rhetoric. The rotten elites are pitted against the good people.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/08/04/powyborczy-wybuch-klasizmu/ -- THE ELECTIONS SHOWED THAT THE MAJORITY WANTS THE POLAND PROPOSED BY PIS AND DUDA, BOYCOTTS ARE INEFFECTIVE AND INCONSISTENT IN THE LONG TERM - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “The government itself admits that it was frugal with the truth before the elections, for example, regarding the closure of mines or the case of Jacek Kurski, who was not supposed to be the CEO of TVP. Poland does not need new chapters of the Polish-Polish war. It needs honest government and effective opposition. No one from PiS will win against populism and party aggression. Especially since the elections showed that the majority of voters want the Poland that PiS and Duda propose. It's time for a sensible opposition proposal and hard work, not state-damaging boycotts, which will prove ineffective and inconsistent in the long run.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/308059902-Jacek-Nizinkiewicz-Wybor-prezydenta-RP-nalezy-uszanowac.html -- MICHAŁ KOLANKO IN RZ ON THE FACT THAT THE HEAD OF THE POLLING AGENCY WHOSE RESEARCH WAS CITED BY THE MEDIA DURING THE CAMPAIGN WAS AN ACTIVE CAMPAIGN STAFF MEMBER FOR TRZASKOWSKI: “'New solidarity' was an idea to re-tell how the state should spend public funds and what the socio-economic priorities should be after the pandemic. As we unofficially learn, the author of this idea was Łukasz Pawłowski, the creator of the stanpolityki.pl project and co-author of many campaign ideas for Trzaskowski.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/308059900-Jak-bedzie-wygladac-ruch-Rafala-Trzaskowskiego.html -- PEOPLE ARE COMING OUT WITH BELARUSIAN SYMBOLISM - BELARUSIAN JOURNALIST HANNA LIUBAKOVA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH PAULINA SIEGIEN IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Belarusians obviously care whether Belarus is independent or not. We have many years of independence behind us. The majority does not want Belarus to become part of Russia. Belarus is not in the same situation as Crimea, nor is it divided linguistically or culturally. There is no region in Belarus that wants to become part of Russia. Tsikhanouskaya is not associated with the Kremlin, because if she were, tens of thousands of people would not be coming out to her rallies with the historical white-red-white flag. It is also symptomatic that the question of Russian influence most often comes from Poland. Here, on the ground, the Russian thread exists, but it is not the most important. When attending election rallies, I do not notice any Russian propaganda, provocations, or that the people supporting Tsikhanouskaya have pro-Russian views. On the contrary, people are coming out with national symbolism, shouting ‘Long Live Belarus,’ a slogan that is clearly associated with opposition, anti-Lukashenko, and anti-Russian sentiment. Some are shouting this slogan for the first time in their lives, because it is their first political rally. And this, in my opinion, is truly important.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/swiat/liubakova-wybory-bialorus-2020/ -- OCCUPATION SOFTWARE CONTINUES TO BE REPRODUCED IN EDUCATION - JAROSŁAW KUISZ EXPANDS ON THE THEME OF THE END OF GENERATIONS OF SUBJUGATION - IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MAGDALENA PENERT IN RZ: “This is the first generation born and raised in a sovereign state. Therefore, it should forge a new approach to its own country. Because to this day, our ‘software’ is old. Our canon looks as if we were preparing children for uprisings or for secret organic work. The occupation software is constantly reproduced in primary and secondary education. On the one hand, we have a generation that remembers the communist era, which, when hearing that we will lock citizens in their homes due to a pandemic, thinks to itself that if someone survived martial law, a pandemic is not scary for them. On the other hand, we have young people for whom this is the first significant social experience, showing that reality, habits, and behaviors can be questioned. But there is no debate on this topic. Therefore, since the publication of the book ‘The End of Generations of Subjugation,’ I have been appealing for new software for Polish public debate – where we will work to not contest our state. One of the most harmful metaphors in circulation, and I say this despite my sympathy for Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz, is the ‘theoretical state.’ Within such a narrative, no one will feel satisfied that they have achieved something. With such cultural codes, credible information comes from the underground press. This does not mean reaching for many sources of information. On the contrary, it can mean trusting one source, the one considered one's own.” -- RITUAL KASSANDRA-LIKE PROPHECIES FROM EMPLOYERS ABOUT MINIMUM WAGE ARE UNFOUNDED - KAMIL FEJFER IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “The same applies to the ritualistic complaining of employers about raising the minimum wage. In Poland, it has been increasing year by year since the beginning of the transformation, and in fact, it was also growing before, but due to the different economic system of the Polish People's Republic, this fact has little significance in the context we are interested in. And year after year, we hear the same voices about the consequences in the form of higher unemployment, disappearance of jobs, and other, better or worse specified threats associated with increasing the minimum wage. At the same time, almost no one tries to verify these ritualistic, Kassandra-like prophecies from the past. This, of course, does not mean that we do not sometimes deal with increases in unemployment; indeed, we do, but they occur for reasons other than an increase in the minimum wage.” -- THE RECORD INCREASE IN THE MINIMUM WAGE COINCIDED WITH THE PANDEMIC, AND YET THE WAVE OF LAYOFFS IS MODERATE AND CONCERNS PEOPLE ON 'SHAM' CONTRACTS - FEJFER CONTINUES: “Let's remember that in 2020, we experienced a sharp increase in the minimum wage compared to the previous year (although not the highest in the last 20 years). And it was this increase that coincided with the biggest economic crisis Poland has experienced since the beginning of the transformation. At the same time, we are dealing with a moderate wave of layoffs for such an economic shock. By the way, let's state clearly that the layoffs mainly affected people on ‘sham’ contracts. Therefore, in the context of job preservation, liberalization of the market, rather than its regulation in the form of a minimum wage, is much more harmful.” -- COMPANIES RECEIVED HUGE PUBLIC SUPPORT, SO THEY SHOULD FORGO PART OF THEIR PROFIT FOR THE SAKE OF EMPLOYEES - FEJFER CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA: “Companies received huge public support. Moving away from the economic perspective, it simply seems that it would be completely unfair – also in the social perception – if private enterprises, rescued with public money, were unwilling to forgo part of their profit for the good of the people who, through taxes, contributed (and will continue to contribute) to their survival on the surface.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/gospodarka/wieksza-placa-minimalna-koronakryzys-kamil-fejfer/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Marek Zagórski, Jerzy Żyżyński, Jacek Poniedziałek, Violetta Porowska, Alicja Kaczorowska, Tomasz Smolarz.

Łukasz Mężyk