-- THE FINAL STATE OF PLAY BEFORE THE ELECTION. MAY THE FORCE BE WITH YOU! -- 300POLITYKA LIVEBLOG: PIOTR DUDA AT THE FINISH LINE OF PAD'S CAMPAIGN TRZASKOWSKI ENDS CAMPAIGN IN RYBNIK ACCOMPANIED BY "SNU O VICTORII" PAD ON NOT INCITING CAMPAIGN STAFF TO PROTEST THE ELECTION RESULTS https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/07/10/ -- CBOS CATI SHOWS TRZASKOWSKI BARELY AHEAD, BUT A STATISTICAL DRAW, WITH 81% TURNOUT: "Trzaskowski 44.6 percent, Duda 44.4 percent. Neither candidate can be sure of winning the presidential election - support for both is almost identical - this is the latest CBOS poll. It was conducted between July 8 and 10. CBOS forecasts a very high turnout - as many as 81% of respondents declare their intention to participate in the election. For reminder, in the first round, the turnout was 64.51%. The CBOS CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview) survey, conducted from July 8-10, 2020, quota sample, 500 adult Poles." https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,26118443,cbos-trzaskowski-44-6-proc-duda-44-4-proc.html -- THE ESTIMATOR FOR DO TYSOL.PL GIVES A CLEAR VICTORY TO PAD: 50 percent of respondents declared they would cast their vote in the second round of the presidential election on July 12, 2020, for Andrzej Duda, while 45.7 percent opted for Rafał Trzaskowski. 4.3 percent of those surveyed who declared their intention to vote do not yet know who they will vote for. https://dorzeczy.pl/kraj/146518/ostatnie-sondaze-przed-cisza-wyborcza-sztab-dudy-ma-powody-do-zadowolenia.html -- IN KANTAR'S PARTY POLL, THE PIS MAJORITY HAS DWINDLED TO A FEW POINTS: “Among those ready to participate in Sejm elections after the coronavirus epidemic, United Right was supported by 39% of respondents, Civic Coalition - 35%, Confederation - 7%, The Left - 6%, and 5% - PSL-Polish Coalition with Kukiz'15 – according to a Kantar poll. The survey was conducted between July 3-8, 2020, using computer-assisted personal interviews (CAPI) on a representative sample of 981 residents of Poland aged 18 and over. Party preferences were surveyed among 769 people who declared their intention to participate in the elections." -- THE BLACKEST SCENARIO IS TOXIC COHABITATION - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI AT THE JAGIELLONIAN CLUB: “Contrary to the thesis endlessly repeated by the ultras of both warring tribes – these are not the most important elections of the last 30 years. What will be crucial is not who wins, but what model of the presidency is chosen. Purely theoretically, both Andrzej Duda and Rafał Trzaskowski could hold office much better than their most fervent opponents expect. However, the problem lies deeper than the sovereign's verdict on Sunday. The logic of the escalating spiral of the Polish-Polish war unfortunately suggests that, in accordance with the expectations of their own political base, they will rather escalate the conflict. If I had to point to the blackest of possible scenarios, however, I would warn against toxic cohabitation, which will only intensify polarization and, by destroying the greatest positive achievement of the "good change" era – the inclusion of active citizens hitherto excluded from democracy into the community – will lead to the restitution of "50 percent democracy". -- COHABITATION WOULD LEAD TO THE RESTITUTION OF 50% DEMOCRACY - TRUDNOWSKI FURTHER ARGUES: “In a scenario of cohabitation, which would most likely strengthen the most tragic phenomena of recent years, namely the escalation of polarization destructive to the state, the political community, the culture of public life, and the system. In the vision of a deadlock between two alternative centers of power splitting the legislature and the executive in half – an "opposition" president with the Senate and a "good change" government with the Sejm. A deadlock that will finally have to lead to a political climax in the form of early elections, the effect of which will be the restitution of "50 percent democracy". -- MOST LIKELY CONTINUATION OF AN INCOMPETENT PRESIDENCY - TRUDNOWSKI FURTHER: “We will most likely face a continuation of an incompetent presidency on the one hand, or its probable extreme entanglement in the particular and party calculations of the opposition – on the other. We can expect a course towards the full consolidation of PiS's power in response to Duda's victory, or – an absurdly destructive model of cohabitation on the other.” -- EITHER BUDAPEST OR AN ANTI-CONSERVATIVE REVOLUTION AND IRELAND ON THE VISTULA - TRUDNOWSKI FURTHER: “The pursuit of limiting the independence of local governments and the media, as well as the pursuit of the actual paralysis of the government camp, which has a parliamentary majority, seems likely. Finally, we will face either a scenario of an attempt to realize a Polish version of illiberal democracy under the slogan "Budapest in Warsaw," or the beginning of a violent cultural-moral anti-conservative revolution under the slogan "Ireland on the Vistula." -- PIS'S GREATEST SUCCESS IS THE INCLUSION OF THE PREVIOUSLY EXCLUDED - TRUDNOWSKI AGAIN: “The greatest achievement of the Law and Justice governments is precisely finding a way to "include" the hitherto excluded into the politically active community. The greatest crime – deepening, often deliberately and calculatedly, political conflict and national division. In the event of Trzaskowski's victory – the escalation of the worst affliction of the past five years is almost certain and will be the result of a pathological "symbiosis in conflict" between the two tribes. The ultimate pushing of those "emancipated" by PiS back into a backward, "immature" niche of civic rights – more than likely.” -- THE ELITES DO NOT DESERVE TO RETURN TO POWER UNLESS THEY ACCEPT THE EQUALITY OF PIS VOTERS - TRUDNOWSKI FURTHER: “However, I have no doubt that as long as the former elites of the Third Polish Republic do not accept the equal rights of the PiS electorate and its civic rights, they will not deserve to fulfill the dream of "removing PiS from power." To achieve this success – they must not only accept the rights of their political enemies but also recognize them as fully-fledged competitors. They must create a positive political offer capable of convincing at least some of their voters, not remain in classist contempt and a sense of superiority towards "that other Poland." https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2020/07/10/duda-czy-trzaskowski-kto-nie-wygra-to-i-tak-bedzie-jeszcze-gorzej/ -- LET'S OVERTHROW THE RADICAL MINORITY'S RULE - SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI IN KRYTYKA: “In the second round, every vote will count. Not only polls, but more detailed social research shows an almost perfect split in support. And that's not enough to predict anything, as voter mobilization is even harder to research than their views. That's why every vote can be decisive. The majority of PiS and Duda's radical moves stem precisely from the need for mobilization: they may be a minority, as long as they all go to vote. This is how PiS has been defeating us since 2015. The rights of minorities and women are trampled, the constitution is violated, Poland's position in the European Union is being destroyed. We are ruled by a radical minority, and it will not be otherwise if we do not respond to discipline with discipline.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/slawomir-sierakowski-druga-tura-wyborow-prezydenckich-2020/ -- THE STATE FACES ANARCHY - JAN ROKITA IN CONVERSATION WITH BARTOSZ PATUREJ ON ONET: Rather, the downfall of PiS rule. Hence the significant dilemma of the rulers. It all depends, of course, on what strategy Trzaskowski adopts as president. However, the most likely is the one described by Cezary Michalski in Newsweek, which he called the strategy of breaking PiS's spine. This is also the expectation of his base. This means that by vetoing every law passed by parliament, he would create a situation where every decision of the PiS government would require the actual counter-signature of Civic Platform or The Left. Even with an unlikely alliance with PSL or Confederation, this would not be enough to pass laws. In Polish conditions, this means a state of complete anarchy. There would be only one solution to such a situation – PiS would have to be removed from power to restore the normal state of affairs. So that the state returns to a state of elementary governance. In that case, even early elections, which PiS might win again, would not be a solution. -- PLATFORMA, EVEN IN THE EVENT OF DEFEAT, HAS SHOWN ITSELF CAPABLE OF MAINTAINING THE POSITION OF THE GOVERNMENT'S POLITICAL ALTER EGO - JAN ROKITA FURTHER ON ONET: “The very fact that Rafał Trzaskowski is neck and neck with Andrzej Duda in the polls shows that if Civic Platform makes a pragmatic and sensible choice, points to an interesting person who can run a campaign, then contrary to the expectations of many analysts, including my own – it is capable of maintaining its position as the government's political alter ego. From this point of view, a loss by PO by one or two points does not mean any qualitative change in the situation. We have a strong bipartisan system, and I expected it might start to change due to the emergence of the new Left. I thought that the cultural dispute that is sweeping across Europe and Poland is strong enough that, upon the unification of these three left-wing currents – a force would emerge that could be a rival to PO. So far, these were mistaken beliefs.” -- GOWIN HAS SIDELINED HIMSELF, WHY WOULD KACZYŃSKI INVEST MORE ENERGY INTO HIS MARGINALIZATION - ROKITA ASKS: “The fact that there are strong factions within PiS that would like to get rid of the group around Gowin is no revelation; we have read about it many times before. However, the decisions in this matter will belong to Jarosław Kaczyński. What is certain is that if Duda wins, the primary mission will be to ensure a stable parliamentary majority, which is, after all, very small. Nothing drastic will likely happen, but it is possible that pressure will arise for Porozumienie to change its leader. Kaczyński has lost trust in Gowin. But will this lead to a larger plan to remove Gowin from politics? I am not convinced, because he has marginalized himself. Jarosław Kaczyński has no reason to invest greater energy into an operation to remove the former deputy prime minister.” -- PART OF THE VOTERS, INCLUDING MYSELF, HAVE BECOME METAPOLITICAL AND VOTE BASED ON FUNDAMENTAL BELIEFS IN THE CULTURAL DISPUTE - ROKITA FURTHER: “A cultural war is raging across Europe, in which some citizens are becoming metapolitical voters. I openly admit that I have been one of them for some time. There is a significant portion of voters who vote not based on real sympathies or assessments of programs, but based on their fundamental beliefs in the cultural dispute. This is a new and very interesting phenomenon, as it changes the structure of the electorate. (...) For a long time now, I have been a metapolitical voter. In the 90s, I was interested in politics; today, the cultural dispute makes such a strong impression on me that I feel it is my duty to stand up for fundamental values. So for a long time now, I have been voting against progressives, against libertines, against atheists. With the conviction that these are fundamental threats to the world close to me.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-prezydenckie-2020-rokita-trzaskowski-stanie-przed-dylematem/dy2c9pf -- IS TRZASKOWSKI IN CONTROL OF ANYTHING - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Finally, a question that is increasingly resonating in the last hours: is he in control of himself? His campaign trail shows a small number of meetings (and he's still stuck in the capital), visible fatigue despite only entering the race a few weeks ago! The subsequent themes are increasingly inconsistent, and sound increasingly strange.” -- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI WRITES ABOUT MEDICATION FOR FATIGUE…: “I don't know if it's fatigue, the effect of medication, or other substances intended to help combat fatigue. But undoubtedly – a lack of presidential format and a strong suggestion of a lack of self-control. As you can see, putting on a white shirt to resemble Andrzej Duda is not enough.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/508650-czy-trzaskowski-nad-czymkolwiek-panuje-nad-miastem-soba -- ONE FEELS THAT TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN IS BEING RUN BY MARKETERS, NOT PEOPLE FAMILIAR WITH POLITICS - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Someone pointed out to me that Trzaskowski's campaign is almost perfect in the sense that it could be found in textbooks. Planned in stages, in actions, with role division. But at the same time, it is a campaign that – as is visible and felt – is run by people unfamiliar with politics, likely involved in ordinary business on a daily basis, selling something, advertising something. Politics, however, is the most difficult of arts. And this has its consequences; it's starting to be noticeable in the final stretch. They promoted the candidate, managed him correctly, highlighted his wife, smeared President Duda, but did they win the battle? That's debatable.” -- HE'S NOT MAINTAINING THE PRESIDENTIAL FORMAT - JACEK KARNOWSKI FURTHER: “In the final stretch of the presidential campaign, one thing stands out particularly strongly: the extremely tired Trzaskowski is unable to maintain even the appearance of a presidential format. More and more videos are appearing online where he behaves in a somewhat strange manner, shouts, desperately tries to close the distance with his audience, or makes analogies worthy of a social gathering rather than the finale of such an important political campaign. Moreover, although there is supposedly a nationwide surge around Trzaskowski, the photographic coverage rather shows a candidate wandering around some courtyards, speaking somewhere in the dark of night, and when it comes to specifics, he'd rather talk about public television.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/508638-na-finiszu-trzaskowski-gubi-pozory-formatu-prezydenckiego -- VOTE TO SEE DANUTA HOLECKA'S FACE: “Because Editor Holecka is not having an easy time right now. Every time she meets the president, she smiles sweetly. When she looks at the head of state, her pupils dilate with admiration. All of this is, by the way, completely understandable: each of us would react the same way, coming face to face with an idol. Recently, she asked with concern: "What can be done to make you win?" Yet we sense that Danuta Holecka would prefer otherwise. It is certain that she would like to show journalistic assertiveness, sharpness, inquisitiveness, indignation, and anger. A president who is not the hero of her romance will give her the opportunity to do so.” -- DANIELEWSKI ON THE DISSONANCE BETWEEN TRZASKOWSKI'S TEMPERAMENT AND PROGRESSIVE POSTULATES: “On the one hand, Andrzej Duda, who has unceremoniously abandoned the promise to represent all citizens, did not hesitate to point out further enemies to be hated in the name of electoral interests – sexual minorities, Germans, urban elites, and of course the "worse than coronavirus" opposition. On the other hand, Rafał Trzaskowski, whose electoral mathematics forced compromises and declarations that grate on the ears of voters attached to Western European standards, such as minority rights. And also to a rational approach to what is possible and what is not. Many of us at OKO.press also felt this dissonance.” https://oko.press/dlaczego-glosowac-gielda-nieoczywistych-powodow/ -- TRZASKOWSKI NEEDS VOTER DETERMINATION LIKE PIS HAS - MARIUSZ JANICKI IN POLITYKA: “Trzaskowski therefore needs not so much a miracle as the determination of his supporters, their certainty of their own rightness, their attachment to the idea of freedom that PiS sympathizers have shown on their side and for their values. For years, the demotivating view has taken hold that one cannot fight with "believers" of the PiS leader because they are a different category: people seduced and mentally dependent. Whereas "non-PiS" is intellectual, diverse, critical, more capricious, because that's what democracy is about. But democracy also involves the ability to maintain it. Handing the system over to its opponents in the name of preserving "natural democratic differences" would be political folly.” -- ONLY TRZASKOWSKI'S VICTORY BY 2 P.P. IN THE EXIT POLL WILL SHOW THAT HE HAS TRULY WON - JANICKI FURTHER: “This is also a kind of instruction for analyzing exit polls on the evening of July 12. If the poll shows a minimal victory for Rafał Trzaskowski, within tenths of a percentage point, it can be safely assumed that Duda won. On the other hand, any, even minimal, advantage for Duda in the exit poll will most likely mean that the result is decided. Only Trzaskowski's advantage in the exit poll within 2 percentage points and more would change the situation. This is based on experience, unless everything will be completely different than usual, which also cannot be ruled out. All considerations are based on what is known, with the allowance for the unknown factor.” -- NO BOOST IN TRZASKOWSKI'S CAMPAIGN: “Rafał Trzaskowski had a fairly successful campaign, especially compared to his party's previous battles. However, the main breakthrough until the end remained his entry into the race and replacing Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. The effect of novelty and freshness fueled the campaign for the first few weeks, but eventually naturally wore off. Then came the continuation and development of themes, refinement of rhetorical tricks, but a new boost did not appear.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1963356,1,trzaskowski-potrzebuje-takiej-determinacji-wyborcow-jaka-ma-pis.read -- BEN STANLEY WRITES ABOUT A VIRTUAL DRAW BUT ALSO ABOUT THE UNDERESTIMATION OF BOTH CANDIDATES BEFORE THE 1ST ROUND BY THE SAME PROPORTION: “In practice, this means that – at least looking at opinion polls – both candidates can equally count on victory. It is worth noting here that while the aggregated analysis model is helpful and allows for finding the average among all research firms, if the pollsters err in the same way, for example, by overestimating one of the candidates, this error will also be repeated in these charts. The results of the first round suggest that there is no such risk, because the support for Duda and Trzaskowski was underestimated to the same extent, by about 1.5 percentage points. But given how small the differences between the politicians are, even the slightest error can lead to the predicted winner ultimately being the loser.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1963436,1,ostatnie-sondaze-w-tej-kampanii-trzaskowski-o-wlos-przed-duda.read?src=mt -- IT IS DUDY'S VOTERS WHO VOTE "FOR", OTHERS HAVE HEREDITARY HATRED - JACEK LIZINIEWICZ IN GAZETA POLSKA/NIEZALEŻNA: “The final stretch. I truly believe there is a chance to close a certain chapter in Poland's history. 15 years ago, when Law and Justice won the parliamentary elections for the first time, and Lech Kaczyński became president, an era of hate and animosity began in Poland. All unworthy methods of destroying opponents have already been used. Today, however, it is the voters of PiS and Andrzej Duda who are voting "for." For a Poland based on tradition, where freedom and family values are cherished. For a community and politics where it is about more than just warm water in the tap. This is evident at the president's rallies, where he is truly loved by his supporters. At these meetings, you can also meet the opposing side, which is "anti." I feel sorry for these people, because they have been instilled with a herd hatred for PiS, whom they simultaneously fear and despise.” https://m.niezalezna.pl/339975-milosc-zwyciezy-nienawisc -- TRZASKOWSKI CAN CHANGE POLAND'S HISTORY - BŁAŻEJ LENKOWSKI IN LIBERTE: “This man can change Poland's history. I don't hide that voting on July 12 will be the most important electoral act of my 37 years of life and in the Third Polish Republic. Never before have I felt such high stakes, such a close race, and such a great chance of victory. 2007 was a trifle in comparison; we didn't know the truth about what PiS is.” https://liberte.pl/ten-czlowiek-moze-zmienic-historie-polski/ -- ON AN ELECTORAL ACT THAT MAY BE MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE EU REFERENDUM - PIOTR BENIUSZYS IN LIBERTE: “July 12 is fast approaching, the second round of the presidential elections is imminent. This is a moment decisive for Poland's future, the most important since the deliberations of the Round Table and the elections to the Contract Sejm. It may turn out to be even more consequential than the referendum on Poland's accession to the European Union. https://liberte.pl/narzedzie-kaczynskiego/ -- PHOTO. Whaam! is a 1963 diptych by American artist Roy Lichtenstein. It is one of the most famous works of pop art and one of Lichtenstein's most important paintings. Whaam! was first exhibited at the Leo Castelli Gallery in New York in 1963, and purchased by the Tate Gallery in London in 1966. It has been on permanent display at Tate Modern since 2006. The left panel shows a fighter jet firing a missile, which in the right panel hits another plane, which explodes in flames. Lichtenstein created the image from several comic strip panels. He transformed his main source, a panel from a 1962 war comic, by presenting it as a diptych, while changing the relationship between the graphic and narrative elements. Whaam! is considered a temporal, spatial, and psychological integration of the two panels. The title of the painting is an integral part of the action and impact of the painting and is displayed in a large onomatopoeia in the right panel. Whaam! depicts a fighter jet in the left panel firing a missile at an enemy plane in the right panel, which disintegrates in a vibrant red and yellow explosion. The cartoon style emphasizes the use of the onomatopoeia "WHAAM!" in the right panel and the caption in a yellow box with black lettering at the top of the left panel. The textual exclamation "WHAAM!" can be considered the graphic equivalent of the sound effect. This was to become a characteristic feature of his work – as were his other onomatopoeic paintings featuring exclamations such as Bratatat! and Varoom!