state of play: 05/21/2020
STATE OF PLAY: Karnowski: Trzaskowski less of a threat to the President than WKK, Hołownia on polls showing the President at 34% and warns of Commissioner Jaki, Jaki: This could have been the end of Civic Platform, but it has a new beginning
-- BIELAN ON SERIOUSLY TREATING RIVALS, TRZASKOWSKI ON THE PROSECUTOR GENERAL APPOINTED BY THE PRESIDENT, CZARZASTY ON WHY BIEDROŃ'S CAMPAIGN ISN'T WORKING - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/05/21/
-- JACEK KARNOWSKI BELIEVES TRZASKOWSKI IS A LESS DANGEROUS OPPONENT FOR DUDA IN THE SECOND ROUND THAN KOSINIAK: “Such an arrangement is good news for Andrzej Duda. The leader of PSL is indeed the president's most potentially dangerous opponent in the second round. The Third Republic camp would stand behind him, but he could also count on winning over some voters from rural areas or smaller towns. It is not by chance that the president honored only Kosiniak with a rebuttal during the aforementioned debate on TVP. Trzaskowski is significantly less dangerous from this point of view; the left-liberal camp will rally behind him, and he will be strongly mobilized, but beyond that, it will be difficult for him to broaden his base. Especially since, as the days pass, it becomes apparent that condescension and puffed-up 'elitism' are traits that cannot be hidden, even if one tries very hard. And the extremely left-wing tail from Warsaw is not easily shaken off.”
-- SO FAR, NONE OF THE EVENTS LIKE THE TRÓJKA AFFAIR HAS PROVEN TO BE POLITICALLY GROUNDBREAKING - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Finally, the question is whether the commotion around Radio Trójka, and the accompanying (false) accusation of censorship, will have long-term political consequences? I don't want to downplay this matter, but it's worth remembering similar, supposedly groundbreaking events: none of them turned out to have serious consequences, all of them lasted a week, at most two. Importantly, this story centers around artists and celebrities – and if their voices carried significant political weight, the PiS government would have been gone long ago.”
-- A VERY EVEN FIGHT - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “For months, it was clear that elections held in the midst of an economic crisis caused by the pandemic would be a very even fight. The quality of the campaign, the resilience of the candidates, and the mobilization of supporters will decide. Contrary to appearances, in this last category, Andrzej Duda has the strongest assets.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/501166-trzaskowski-w-ii-turze-to-dobra-wiadomosc-dla-prezydenta
-- ANDRZEJ DUDA ON THE STRAIGHT PATH TO DEFEAT - SAMUEL PEREIRA: “The camp of Andrzej Duda, however, seems unfazed by the situation; the conviction that the president will 'win by a landslide' is as strong as it was two weeks ago. As if nothing has happened in the meantime. It's not even about whether Rafał Trzaskowski is a real threat or not, but about the lack of ideas for the campaign message and Andrzej Duda's withdrawal, which heightens the impression that he is tired, hiding, or ashamed of something. Not to mention the local PiS structures, which seem to have forgotten entirely that elections are still ahead, and Andrzej Duda is still their presidential candidate.”
-- EMOTIONS HAVE BURNED OUT ON THE RIGHT; TODAY THEY ARE PRACTICALLY ON THE OPPOSITION'S SIDE - PEREIRA CONTINUES: “Emotions have burned out on the right; today, they are practically only on the opposition's side. A campaign based on assurances that President Andrzej Duda will ensure that what has been given will not be taken away – this is definitely not enough to be sure of victory. What is missing today is what captivated Poles in 2015 – clearly defined differences between PiS and Civic Platform, and a passionate, visionary approach to governing the country. Paradoxically, a strategy of survival is a strategy of losing power.”
https://www.tvp.info/48140589/andrzej-duda-na-prostej-drodze-do-przegranej
-- PATRYK JAKI, WHEN ASKED BY JAKUB SZCZEPAŃSKI ABOUT DIFFERENCES OF OPINION ON REPLACING PREMIER SZYDŁO WITH MORAWIECKI - SPEAKS TO INTERIA: “As Solidarna Polska, you say it directly: replacing Beata Szydło with Mateusz Morawiecki was not a good thing. - It was a decision of the largest coalition party, and we respected it. There were promises of better relations with the European Union. Zbigniew Ziobro says it directly: this has not happened. - There are many problems that we need to solve. There is no doubt about it. We often have different views on this matter, but I believe we will overcome them through discussions between the leaders of the groups. Not through the media.”
-- THIS COULD HAVE BEEN THE END OF CIVIC PLATFORM, BUT THANKS TO THE ELECTION POSTPONEMENT, IT HAS A NEW BEGINNING - JAKI IN INTERIA: “It's not about his start. Both in our pre-election analyses and those commissioned by Civic Platform, Trzaskowski appeared to be a weaker candidate than Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska. However, her campaign's mistakes meant that not only President Andrzej Duda had a chance to win in the first round. This could have been the end of Civic Platform. Unfortunately, thanks to the postponement of the elections, the Platform has gained an opportunity for a new beginning. But there's no use crying over spilled milk. We must fight for Andrzej Duda's victory.”
-- ELECTIONS WHERE I AND TRZASKOWSKI WERE THE FACES RESULTED IN A VICTORY FOR CIVIC PLATFORM IN THE CAPITAL AND AN ABSOLUTE DEFEAT ACROSS POLAND - JAKI CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “They are making a mistake. The elections where Rafał Trzaskowski and I were the faces resulted in a victory for Civic Platform in the capital, and an absolute defeat across Poland. Currently, the elections are nationwide. I also recall that Andrzej Duda, just like me with the Platform's candidate, lost decisively to Bronisław Komorowski in Warsaw. Yet, he still won in Poland. So, support in the capital is not representative of the entire country.”
-- THE REMOVAL OF KAZIK'S SONG WAS AN UNNECESSARY MISTAKE - JAKI CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “It is not a problem serious enough to require meetings of this caliber. The attack on President Jarosław Kaczyński from Civic Platform and liberal media was, as usual, unfair and ritualistic. It did not take into account and concealed the legal status related to this visit. However, I believe that removing Kazik Staszewski's song from this list was an unnecessary mistake. It would be worth appointing a commission to clarify this, or for Trójka to draw conclusions in another way.”
https://fakty.interia.pl/autor/jakub-szczepanski/news-patryk-jaki-dla-interii-dalismy-szanse-platformie,nId,4506800
-- THE DATE AGAIN LOOKS LIKE A TRAP SET FOR THE OPPOSITION - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “To conduct the elections correctly, good will from all sides is needed. Meanwhile, everything is heading towards another conflict. The date proposed by PiS, June 28, on which there was supposed to be a consensus, increasingly looks like a trap set for the opposition. Shortening the election calendar (just over five weeks from today) will mean that Rafał Trzaskowski's campaign will have merely a few dozen hours to collect 100,000 signatures. Such a schedule, twisting the arms of the largest opposition party, does not align well with PiS's assurances that they want cooperation.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200529902-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Wyborcze-wykrecanie-sobie-rak.html
-- I WANT A POLAND WHERE IN A FEW MONTHS A NON-PARTISAN PRESIDENT WILL TASK TRZASKOWSKI OR KOSINIAK WITH FORMING A GOVERNMENT - SZYMON HOŁOWNIA IN CONVERSATION WITH PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “The election of another party president, whoever it may be, will not be a change, but a return to the past. I want a Poland where in a few or a dozen months, a non-partisan president entrusts Rafał Trzaskowski or Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz with the mission of forming a government.”
-- HOŁOWNIA ON HIS CAMPAIGN'S POLLS SHOWING THE PRESIDENT AT 34% IN JULY, HOŁOWNIA AT 21%, AND TRZASKOWSKI AT 17% - TELLS WROŃSKI: “We do not see confirmation of the thesis you have put forward in the polls either. We have been conducting them with a consistent methodology for 12 weeks. At the moment, in May, Andrzej Duda would receive 43% of the votes, I – 20%, Trzaskowski – 15%, Kosiniak-Kamysz – 6%. If the elections were held in the traditional form, i.e., at the ballot boxes, in July, we predict that Andrzej Duda would receive 34% of the votes, I – 21%, Trzaskowski – 17%, Kosiniak-Kamysz – 6%. This may suggest that the Civic Platform electorate – discouraged by Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska – previously shifted more towards Kosiniak-Kamysz.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25960654,szymon-holownia.html
-- I SEE NO REASON WHY CIVIC PLATFORM SHOULD NOT LOSE AGAIN TO PIS IN THE NEXT ELECTION - SZYMON HOŁOWNIA IN CONVERSATION WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “I am not changing my election strategy under the influence of Trzaskowski. We will do our own thing, and I am convinced that it will end with me reaching the second round. I do not believe that the effect being created here, namely attacking PiS, is what Poles need. I see a consolidating effect around Civic Platform at the moment, but my problem is that for five years, Civic Platform has been building everything on one slogan: 'we will remove PiS from power.' And so far, since 2015, Civic Platform has lost to PiS five times. I see no reason why they should not lose again, in a situation where elections are won in the second round, and then you need to attract not only the staunch voters of Civic Platform or those dissatisfied with PiS, but also those who are somewhere in between, and those who may not vote if they have to choose between party representatives.”
-- HOŁOWNIA WARNS OF COMMISSIONER JAKI IN WARSAW - AS HE TELLS NIZINKIEWICZ: “Trzaskowski has a problem with being consistent. Especially since PiS, regardless of the coronavirus, wants to seize local governments. For many months, I have been saying that local government officials will be next after judges. Local government officials with whom I have spoken are already reporting that drops in local government revenue mean that they will soon be balancing on the verge of the expenditure rule, and this is the moment when PiS might think about introducing its commissioners into local governments. This may affect not only Warsaw. If Rafał Trzaskowski wins the presidential election, Patryk Jaki could become a commissioner in the capital's city hall. I assure you that Jarosław Kaczyński will not waste such an opportunity to humiliate Varsovians as appointing, for example, Commissioner Patryk Jaki, to show them who is in charge. This could be an element of a broader problem, where local governments will begin to lose their autonomy due to the government's cynical treatment of them in the midst of an epidemic; this is a very real problem.”
https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-prezydenckie-2020/200529890-Holownia-Prezydent-powinien-byc-bezpartyjny.html
-- JACEK ŻAKOWSKI WRITES THAT HOŁOWNIA'S CHOICE IS "TUPOLEWIZM ELEVATED TO THE RANK OF A POLITICAL PROGRAM" AND THAT HE WILL VOTE FOR TRZASKOWSKI WITHOUT HESITATION: “Despite a few 'buts,' today I would vote for Trzaskowski without hesitation. To get rid of Duda and avoid Hołownia. It is not by chance that in no civilized country has society entrusted the fate of the state to a person without political experience, surrounded by people of unknown intentions and funded by sources without a face. Just like any other rabbit out of a hat, President Hołownia in the highest office is tupolewizm elevated to the rank of a political program. This must not be allowed.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25962141,trzaskowski-chce-zaorac-tvp-a-tu-nie-orac-trzeba-lecz-budowac.html
-- THE ENTREPRENEURS' STRIKE DID NOT COME FROM NOWHERE - PIOTR SKWIROWSKI IN RZ: “The entrepreneurs' strike did not come from nowhere. Even if politics is in the background, the dissatisfaction of many business owners, their fear for the future, is a fact. The government should not dismiss this with silence. Of course, today many entrepreneurs are happy that the economic defrosting has allowed them to resume their activities, and they are focusing on that. But this will not solve all the problems. Many companies, especially those working at half capacity, will not be able to recover their losses and will not get back on their feet without an external cash injection. Resuming operations will allow them to vegetate for some time, but it is not the end of their troubles.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze-ekonomiczne/305209894-Piotr-Skwirowski-Tarcza-za-tarcza-a-firmy-drza.html
-- TOO QUICK RELAXATION HINDERS RECOVERY FROM THE PANDEMIC - OKO.PRESS ANALYSIS: MIŁADA JĘDRYSK, AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK, AND PIOTR PACEWICZ: “Looking at Poland as a whole, we do not see the epidemic subsiding, and the curve of new cases is at best slowly flattening, but not declining. Even considering the concentration of infections in Silesia, comparisons with neighboring countries are unfavorable. It is enough to compare the Polish graph of active cases with the German, Czech, and Slovak ones. In Germany, the epidemic started on March 2, reaching a level of 2.1 thousand infections per million; three times more than in the Czech Republic, four times more than in Poland, and 8 times more than in Slovakia. But with such different levels, the dynamics of change are key. This may mean that while the rapid introduction of discipline in limiting social contacts protected Poland from a large number of infections and deaths, the too-quick relaxation of discipline hinders the process of recovery from the epidemic.”
https://oko.press/w-polsce-skok-zakazen-za-wczesnie-poluzowalismy-swiat-koniec-mrzonek-o-odpornosci-zbiorowej-wykresy-mapy/
-- THE PROBLEM WITH TRÓJKA IS BROADER - OPINIONS SHAPED BY A NETWORK OF BUSINESS AND SOCIAL CONNECTIONS AND ENTANGLEMENTS - RAFAŁ WOŚ IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “The scandal surrounding Kazik's song shows the fatal working relations at Radio Trójka. But the problem is broader. Such working relations are, unfortunately, the shameful everyday reality in most Polish media. Servility towards the wishes of superiors. Even those unspoken. Fear of questioning the editorial line, because why 'kick a hornet's nest.' Labor law, usually existing only in theory, and even then being a manifestation of luxury in a market systemically based on 'smile-work' or forced self-employment. Silencing voices that differ from management's opinions. Opinions shaped all too often by interests, networks of business and social connections, and entanglements. Because it is known that the weaker and poorer the media, the more powerful the patrons become: it doesn't matter whether they are political or business patrons. They don't even have to try to gain the media's favor anymore. The media itself seeks their support as the only guarantor of economic survival in the market.”
https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/moj-bol-twoj-bol-i-media-163484
-- Photo. St. Jerome Writing – a painting by the Italian Baroque painter Caravaggio. The work was created during the artist's last years in Rome and is currently in the collection of the Borghese Gallery.
Caravaggio painted Jerome several times. In his time – during polemics with Protestantism – Jerome played a special role for Catholics. The author of the Vulgate was a symbol of love for truth, accuracy of translation, and orthodoxy[2]. The painter emphasized this by giving the saint's robe a cardinal's crimson color and placing a halo above his head.
The simple composition of the painting, with its arrangement, carries a vanitas message, the saint's hand connects the world of the living with the world of the dead. It symbolizes the inseparable link between life and death and serves as a painterly memento mori.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Wiesława Ziółkowska, Marta Patena, Lucjusz Nadbereżny, Piotr Mościcki, Małgorzata Serafin.
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