state of play: 04/03/2020

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: 300: Either Constitutional Change or August Postal Elections, Dąbrowska: President Found No Role in the Crisis and Took to TikTok, Karnowski: Gowin's Party Like KPN During the Night of Change, Wielowieyska: Kaczyński is Driving Tow

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRIME MINISTER Hanna Suchocka TURNS 74 TODAY. -- IF THE OPPOSITION DOES NOT ACCEPT THE PROPOSAL TO AMEND THE CONSTITUTION AND EXTEND THE PRESIDENTIAL TERM BY 2 YEARS, ELECTIONS WOULD BE HELD, FOLLOWING THE INTRODUCTION OF A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR 30 DAYS AND A 90-DAY GRACE PERIOD – BY MAIL, AFTER THE AMENDMENTS PROPOSED BY PIS ARE INTRODUCED – IN AUGUST. This is how, according to 300POLITYKA's interlocutors, the compromise proposal negotiated overnight by the leaders of the United Right coalition is supposed to look. -- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI SPOKE ABOUT THE EXTENSION OF THE PRESIDENTIAL TERM THIS MORNING - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/04/03/ -- OLGA TOKARCZUK LIVE ON FB AT 6 PM TODAY: "I will read an old short story, from 22 years ago, titled 'Dress Rehearsal.' Strangely enough, this short text has become very relevant today. I warmly invite you on 3.04 at 6:00 PM, make yourselves some tea." https://www.facebook.com/OlgaTokarczukProfil -- PRESIDENT FOUND NO ROLE FOR HIMSELF AND TOOK TO TIKTOK - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “Moreover, it is obvious to the naked eye that President Duda has no idea for the pandemic. In the beginning, he tried to take the lead in the fight against the plague, but he stands no chance of outshining Minister Łukasz Szumowski. So, he found no role for himself and took to TikTok. If the campaign lasted longer, he might have even better ideas.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/200409803-Zuzanna-Dabrowska-Kryzys-wladzy-ktos-tu-straci-glowe.html -- IF THEY SPLIT, THEY WILL ROLL OUT THE RED CARPET FOR DONALD TUSK - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Stop! Mistake. Error. Or the so-called 'fool's game.' The choice facing the politicians of Porozumienie (Accord) is simple and clear: either they accept Jarosław Kaczyński's leadership and acknowledge the strong arguments for conducting the elections safely on May 10th, or they break up the ruling coalition. And if they break up, they will simultaneously roll out the red carpet for Donald Tusk.” -- GOWIN'S PARTY LIKE KPN DURING THE REMOVAL OF JAN OLSZEWSKI - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Someone must tell the politicians of Porozumienie: the game they have undertaken is bad for Poland, and if they don't stop it, it will politically destroy them; they will be used by the Third Polish Republic camp and discarded, and they will go down in Polish history the way the Confederation of Independent Poland (KPN) did during the night of change on June 4, 1992. Motivated by the personal fear of their leaders, they then sided with the anti-lustration camp, and shortly thereafter, post-communists took power for many years. Soon, KPN disappeared from the political scene, and that night's behavior of its leaders discredited the entire previous achievements of that formation in the eyes of voters.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/494212-porozumienie-musi-pamietac-o-roli-kpn-w-czasie-nocnej-zmiany -- JACEK KARNOWSKI ON THE RISK OF POSTPONED ELECTIONS: “Postponing the elections means taking a great political risk, bordering on suicidal action. Now, in May, victory would not be easy either, but in the autumn or spring of next year, social tensions will be immense. The opposition knows this too, which is precisely why it is building pressure to change the date.” -- KARNOWSKI ON WAVERERING: “Wavering the United Right's boat at such a moment is a COMPLETELY UNINTELLIGIBLE action, difficult to explain. From the perspective of political logic or experience, it cannot be understood.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/494148-chybotanie-koalicyjna-lodka-teraz-to-wiecej-niz-zbrodnia -- PIS GOVERNMENT IS CRACKING - lead story in GW. -- DO WE STILL HAVE A GOVERNMENT? - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ in Onet: “Do we still have a government? Or perhaps today, Mateusz Morawiecki's cabinet in its current form will cease to exist? Maybe Jarosław Gowin and his MPs will be replaced by people from Konfederacja or PSL? Gowin is resisting PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński's decision to organize elections on May 10th at all costs – in a postal version. Today, we will find out whether this is just rhetoric, or if Gowin will truly vote against postal elections, which could lead to the collapse of the coalition, his removal from the government, and the search for new coalition partners. But everything might also blow over if the politicians of the ruling camp have simply decided to have a routine spat – which they do for practice once in a while.” -- THE COUNTRY IS UNDER MANDATORY QUARANTINE AND POLITICIANS OF THE RULING CAMP HAVE DECIDED TO CLASH, AND THIS IS ALL WITHIN THE RULING CAMP, WHICH FOR 5 YEARS HAS BEEN PERSUADING US THAT IT IS CLOSE TO PEOPLE'S LIVES - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “Regardless of how this spectacle ends, I cannot understand one thing. While the country is under mandatory quarantine, and the number of detected infections and death certificates is rising at a record pace, politicians of the ruling camp have decided to clash. In a situation where politics should recede, yielding to the fight against a deadly disease, it is the exact opposite: politics is pushing to the forefront, not helping the fight against the disease. And all this within the ruling camp, which for 5 years has been convincing us that it is as close to people's lives as it possibly can be.” -- KACZYŃSKI IS STUBBORN AND DRIVING TOWARDS A WALL - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA in GW: “Some politicians of the ruling camp are calming emotions: calmly, there will be no elections, common sense will prevail, or there will be a rebellion in the PiS camp. I am not sure about that. However, I know with absolute certainty that Jarosław Kaczyński – the man who rules Poland – has shifted into a higher gear and is heading straight for a head-on collision with a wall.” -- IF THE ELECTIONS ARE NOT HELD, KACZYŃSKI'S POSITION WILL BE CHALLENGED - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Kaczyński remains determined to hold the elections. Even against the will of part of his political camp. At stake is not only keeping the Presidential Palace in PiS hands but also the leader's authority and the confirmation of his leadership in the ruling camp. Kaczyński said there would be elections, so they must take place. If it turns out otherwise, his position as leader may be challenged.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25841666,kaczynski-sie-zaparl-i-jedzie-wprost-na-sciane.html -- POSTMEN SAY NO - LEAD STORY IN RZ: “Postal workers and experts warn: handling voting through the company is madness. (...) Their online forums are boiling. They don't want to risk their lives. It is therefore not surprising that almost 30% of them are on sick leave and holidays. According to information obtained by 'Rzeczpospolita,' several postal workers have already been infected. Many are in quarantine. For this reason, the company had to close several branches in Krakow and Świdnik.” https://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1425699-Listonosze-mowia-%E2%80%9Enie%E2%80%9D.html -- UNPREPARED ELECTIONS CAN TURN INTO A PARODY - TOMASZ PIETRYGA in RZ: “The process of returning ballots also raises concerns. Will the postal service, which does not always operate efficiently, be able to organize the timely delivery of mail to polling stations? A vote delivered after the election date will be invalid. When preparing such daring solutions, it is worth using one's imagination. Otherwise, the elections may turn into a parody, and thousands of people may be disenfranchised. And the proponents will certainly not be forgiven for this by the voters.” https://www.rp.pl/Ustroj-i-kompetencje/304029891-Tomasz-Pietryga-jest-duze-ryzyko-ze-panstwo-nie-udzwignie-pocztowych-wyborow---wybory-w-czasie-epidemii-koronawirusa.html -- IS POROZUMIENIE THE ONLY RATIONAL POLITICAL GROUP IN POLAND? - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA in RZ: “Is Porozumienie truly the only rational political group in Poland that listens to public opinion? We urge once again to follow the path of consensus. To effectively postpone the elections – which seems inevitable – requires a bit of trust in this difficult moment. We urge the opposition to reach an agreement (there are forums such as the National Security Council) with the ruling party regarding the date and method of postponing the elections. Only a joint decision, a guarantee of honest fulfillment of commitments, will protect Poland from social unrest, the risk of which may be brought by prolonged restrictions related to the pandemic. Can we count on this bit of mutual trust and an attempt at conciliation, Messrs. Borys Budka, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, leaders of the Left? Can we also count on you, President Jarosław Kaczyński?” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/200409815-Boguslaw-Chrabota-Deficyt-zaufania-moze-nas-zabic.html -- JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ in RZ ON THE DIFFERENT MENTALITY OF PROTESTANT COUNTRIES - speaking in an interview with Jędrzej Bielecki in RZ: “Countries are acting on their own account; we will see the effect of their actions. But I would like to draw attention to a certain divergence in mentality, perhaps linked to the Protestant roots of the Netherlands and Sweden and some other countries, a certain acceptance of the tragic consequences of this pandemic. In our culture, such logic is, however, very difficult to accept. We strive to fight for every life. At the same time, we analyze what other countries are doing to prepare the best possible response ourselves by using their experiences. Seeing what is happening in Southern Europe, the government very quickly introduced a ban on gatherings, quarantine for arrivals, and closed schools, thus trying to limit the spread of the virus.” -- CZAPUTOWICZ ON MOSCOW'S DISINFORMATION: “But we also know that even in such difficult times, Russia is not changing its policy; it is using disinformation to weaken the unity of the Union and NATO. It wants to create divisions in Western Europe to gain acceptance for its aggressive policy and the lifting of sanctions. Hence its strong involvement in helping Italy, while at the same time, usually baseless accusations against Poland of attempting to block medical supplies. But this epidemic is spreading with increasing force in Russia as well, and Moscow will have to deal with it.” -- IT IS CLEAR WHO IS THE SOVEREIGN IN THE EU - NATION STATES - CZAPUTOWICZ CONTINUES: “Ensuring security is the task of the member states; they have taken the initiative. In situations of threat, it is therefore very clearly seen who is the sovereign. It is the national authorities that make key decisions: whom to allow into their territory, what restrictions to impose on citizens, when to shut down the economy. In these extraordinary circumstances, the real relationship between the Union and its member states has been revealed.” https://www.rp.pl/Unia-Europejska/200409796-Jacek-Czaputowicz-Teraz-widac-kto-jest-suwerenem.html -- ELECTIONS IN THE SPRING - KOSINIAK KAMYSZ in GW in an interview with Krystyna Naszkowska: “Some experts believe that the economic crash will peak in the autumn. And there might also be a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic. Holding elections then does not seem sensible to me. I would lean towards a date in the spring of next year.” -- KOSINIAK ON RATIONAL GOWIN: “I confirm that we are not on the same path as PiS. However, we will always support rational stances. Deputy Prime Minister Gowin's proposal is such a rational stance, which is why it is close to us and we support it.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25841450,wladyslaw-kosiniak-kamysz-wybory-powinny-byc-dopiero-wiosna.html -- POLITICS IS BEING PUSHED TOWARDS DARWINISM - MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI in Krytyka Polityczna: “After the great financial crisis, many of us believed that now the 'paradigm would truly change.' Today, almost all of us are certain that Poland and the world will not be the same after the pandemic. Milton Friedman, brilliant in some matters, taught that the shape of the world after a crisis depends on the ideas available on the market, ready-made solutions, which often change from utopian fantasy to natural necessity overnight. The problem is that both our mental 'long duration' and the government's policy are pushing us towards wild privatization and Darwinism on an unprecedented scale, rather than towards utopia.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/co-po-pandemii-czyli-widmo-trzeciej-fali-prywatyzacji/ -- THE ELECTION PACKAGE CANNOT BE HANDED OVER WITHOUT CONFIRMATION - JAROSŁAW FLIS ON THE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS WITH THE RAPID IMPLEMENTATION OF POSTAL VOTING - writes on the Tygodnik Powszechny blog: “One goes to the polling station once, while postal voting requires two contacts with the process operator – whoever that may be. The package cannot be handed over to a citizen without confirmation, nor can it be collected without confirmation. Omitting such a procedure risks undermining the credibility of any election. Collecting and sending a registered letter usually takes more time – particularly on the service side – than issuing a ballot paper at a polling station. The changes that have occurred in our lives suggest that there will be hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people eager for postal voting. In the Bavarian local elections held at the beginning of the epidemic, over two-thirds of the votes were cast this way. Postal voting for those aged 60+, introduced by law which has already entered into force, would be a colossal organizational and political challenge, even if the elections were to be held in the autumn.” -- THE WALL OF REALITY IS APPROACHING INEXORABLY - FLIS CONTINUES: “Only 10 days have passed since Jarosław Kaczyński's interview on RMF, which directed the actions of Nowogrodzka (PiS headquarters). Since then, the wall of reality has been approaching inexorably, but the charge of the loyal team is only gaining speed. If one closes their eyes, will the impact against such a wall be less painful? I dare to doubt.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/tragifarsa-wyborcza-162911 -- GLAPIŃSKI SHOULD PUT AWAY HIS MAGIC WAND - WITOLD GADOMSKI in GW: “The NBP (National Bank of Poland) should therefore put away its 'magic wand' and stop talking about the 'unlimited possibilities' it supposedly possesses. Professionals who are not susceptible to propaganda listen to the president's words. They want to know the limits of NBP's assistance to the government and hear that the bank will pursue predictable and responsible policies.” https://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,25839985,prezesie-glapinski-odloz-czarodziejska-rozdzke.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Hanna Suchocka, Ewa Draus.

Łukasz Mężyk