state of play: 03/25/2020
STATE OF PLAY: Prof. Łętowska: These won't be universal or equal elections. And I'm not even mentioning fair play, Gądek on Morawiecki's new normal, Karnowski: More discipline, faster return
-- JUST A REGULAR SEJM SESSION, TERLECKI ACCUSES THE PLATFORM, NITRAS: WE WERE RIGHT AFTER ALL - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2020/03/25/
-- PROFESSOR EWA ŁĘTOWSKA LISTS PROBLEMS WITH ELECTION ORGANIZATION - as she says in an interview with Kultura Liberalna: “At the same time, we have various restrictions on movement; the exclusion of freedom to organize an election campaign for most candidates, which clearly privileges the incumbent president when it comes to media presence; the postal service is not working normally, communication is not fully operational; media are working at half capacity; there are quarantine and isolation restrictions (hospitals) for voters; the authorities are encouraging, and even not too subtly stimulating, people to stay at home. Organizing the electoral apparatus is problematic because people are afraid of infection. We have no legal possibility of postal voting or, in the current situation, voting by proxy (theoretically possible, but practically impossible due to isolation and quarantines). The current law does not allow for house-to-house urn campaigns – which Mr. Kaczyński is advocating. This is a whole package of legal difficulties (resulting from this 'state of epidemic' or 'state of pandemic') and much broader, purely factual limitations.”
-- THESE WILL NOT BE UNIVERSAL, EQUAL, OR DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS, AND I'M NOT EVEN MENTIONING FAIR PLAY - PROF. ŁĘTOWSKA CONTINUES: “These, both legal and factual, have equal significance from the perspective of participation in the election calendar and stripping the elections of their freedom. Anyone who doesn't see this is either pretending or is cynical. If the elections are held anyway, they will not be universal or equal elections. Moreover, they will not be democratic. And I'm not even mentioning fair play.”
-- PROF. ŁĘTOWSKA ON KULTURA LIBERALNA'S QUESTION ABOUT CANDIDATE RESIGNATIONS - INFANTILIZING SERIOUS MATTERS: “These are some loopholes and evasions. It infantilizes serious matters, some kind of Machiavellianism written in lowercase. There are more such ideas. I won't discuss them, some of them, unfortunately, are suggested by lawyers themselves. What's worse, they all treat the Constitution, its interpretation, the law, procedures, and elections themselves very instrumentally. Moreover, with this lack of trust in institutions and a very casual approach to interpretive honesty, I can already see how opinions will multiply proving that even with one candidate, an effective choice can be made and that everything is simply falling into place beautifully. I also have limited trust in the authorities' integrity. I don't advise going down this path, you might be deceived.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2020/03/24/letowska-wybory-prezydenckie-kaczynski-konstytucja/
-- JACEK GĄDEK ON WHAT MORAWIECKI'S NEW NORMAL IS: "New normal" - these words of Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki are the key to our lives for the coming months. Both private and public life. "New normal" means that perhaps in a month we will be going to work, taking matriculation and other exams, attending mass, but all this under a draconian sanitary regime. And crucially: we are also to go to the presidential elections. "New normal" is therefore a life different from what we know. Translating the prime minister's 15-minute speech into understandable language: we must learn to live with the coronavirus. And to live in a relatively normal way, with the components of this normality being school, exams, going to work, and finally also going to the elections.”
https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,173952,25816698,nowa-normalnosc-morawieckiego-czyli-zapomnijcie-o-dawnym.html
-- THE GREATER THE DISCIPLINE, THE FASTER THE RETURN TO NORMALCY - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Prime Minister Morawiecki's government has just introduced another package of restrictions. Their purpose is clear: to encourage Poles to take social distancing more seriously. In fact, it's a race against time: either we quickly understand how much depends on us, or the plague will spread throughout the country, and we will have to repeat the Italian ordeal. So we have a clear proposal on the table: if we take the national quarantine period seriously, we can think about some form of return to 'normality' after Easter. This is of course not a guarantee, but we have no choice: we must seize the opportunities that are available.”
-- AND WHAT WILL THE OPPOSITION BE LEFT WITH? - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “This time the situation is of course special, the sense of threat is widespread, but hysteria and shouting, and above all the impression of bad faith, can cost a lot. Because what if the government manages to flatten the infection curve, the healthcare system holds up, and we start to get back on our feet? What will the opposition be left with?”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/492687-im-wieksza-dyscyplina-tym-szybszy-powrot-do-normalnosci
-- APPLYING STATISTICAL MODELS, THE EPIDEMIC WILL NOT SUBSIDE BY THE ELECTIONS - ANDRZEJ MACHOWSKI writes in GW: “We are unlikely to have a Korean model, where after two weeks of rapid growth in daily new cases (TWD), rapid declines were recorded in the third and subsequent weeks (but Korea performs over 60 times more tests per million inhabitants than we do). We should therefore cautiously assume that in Poland, TWD will peak no earlier than the fifth week (April 8-15) and probably no later than the eighth (April 29 - May 6). And when will the epidemic subside? Nobody knows. As the example of China and Korea shows, the period of epidemic subsiding is somewhat like the aftermath of a great fire – it smolders here and there, and a spark is enough for it to reignite. Korea is in its third week of decline (the seventh, eighth, and ninth weeks of the epidemic), although in the ninth week TWD was higher than in the eighth and amounted to 115.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25815499,pis-chce-poslac-polakow-do-urn-z-koronawirusem.html
-- RESURRECTION IS TO BE A SIGNAL THAT POLITICAL REDEMPTION HAS OCCURRED - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA on the symbolism of PiS strategy - writes in RZ: “The political interpretation is clear: by Easter, Mateusz Morawiecki's government is to have the epidemic under control in Poland and prevent the informational initiative from being taken by enemies. And from Easter, a new reality and rebirth are to begin. In the minds of citizens, the Resurrection is to be a signal that political redemption has occurred and now life can return to normal. And people can vote for PiS. And above all, for Andrzej Duda – on May 10th. It would be difficult for the authorities to devise a more favorable symbolism. PiS is to emerge from the pandemic strengthened: before our very eyes, the role of the Sejm is being limited and citizens' rights are being minimized – to a level that seemed unimaginable a month ago.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/303249887-Zuzanna-Dabrowska-Rzad-boi-sie--sam-siebie.html
-- Photo. Caravaggio's "Seven Works of Mercy" in the church of Pio Monte della Misericordia in Naples. The story of the seven acts comes from the Gospel of Matthew. They are embodied in the form of a set of compassionate acts of helping those in need.
-- THE AUTHORITIES ARE SENDING A SIGNAL THAT NOTHING EXTRAORDINARY IS HAPPENING, WE OURSELVES ARE DISREGARDING RECOMMENDATIONS - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA in GW: “All these events can be a source of exponentially growing infections. However, due to their political interests, the authorities do not want to formally introduce a state of natural disaster, although it is practically functioning in Poland. By doing so, they are sending a signal to citizens that, yes, something is happening, but overall we don't have to take it too seriously. On the one hand, Health Minister Łukasz Szumowski says that everything that can be frozen should be frozen, because the alternative is thousands of sick and hundreds of dead, and on the other hand, the state says: let these votes and committee meetings take place, because everything is fine. Meanwhile, preparations for the supplementary elections and the May 10th elections are ongoing. They generate additional risks and are contrary to the recommendations of the Minister of Health. The authorities are sending a signal to citizens: nothing extraordinary is happening, we ourselves are disregarding our own recommendations, we say one thing and do another, so you can disregard them too.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25816448,wladze-pokazuja-obywatelom-jak-nie-przestrzegac-kwarantanny.html
-- TUSK STUTTERING, DETACHED FROM REALITY - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “In essence, this is a sad stage in Donald Tusk's political career – at least on the Polish front. In Brussels, one can collect dividends and sip malvasia, boasting about it in memoirs. In Warsaw, and especially in Poland outside the city gates – to have no influence on reality, to be up against a wall when it comes to radicalism. And although Tusk is far from hanging up his political boots, he seems to be completely detached from the reality he once knew how to sense, and even create. Something has ended, which is very good news for the Polish community.”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/492641-tusk-sufluje-opozycji-samobojcza-strategie-szalonej-szarzy
-- A CONVENIENT DOUBLE FOR PIS - on Jakubiak, Agata Kondzińska and Iwona Szpala in GW: “– I have information about significant support from Radom – the brewer tells us and assures again that no one from PiS was involved in the collection. – I haven't had the chance to meet President Jarosław Kaczyński, I haven't spoken with him, I haven't exchanged views. However, I know PiS voters, I know that many sympathize with me, so PiS might fear me a little.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25816282,marek-jakubiak-oglosil-ze-startuje-na-prezydenta.html
-- THE GOVERNMENT IS STRICTENING ITS COURSE - RZ's front page (Ćwiek, Kolanko): “The Prime Minister hopes for optimistic news about the epidemic after Easter.”
-- A RECESSION LIKE WE'VE NEVER KNOWN IS COMING - DGP's front page: “The economic activity index in the Eurozone has fallen to its lowest level in two decades. The economic situation in France and Germany has collapsed sharply. PMI indicators show in advance what is happening in the economy. Yesterday's readings for Europe are dire. They show how painfully the shock caused by the epidemic and government decisions to halt work in many sectors have already hit business.”
https://gospodarka.dziennik.pl/news/artykuly/6467240,koronawirus-epidemia-recesja.html
-- GW ON WAGE FREEZES AND WITHDRAWAL FROM MINIMUM WAGE INCREASES AND THE 14TH PENSION - as Leszek Kostrzewski writes: “The FRD currently has PLN 42 billion. After the payment of the additional pension, approximately PLN 32 billion will remain in it. However, money from the demographic fund is not enough. Therefore, PiS politicians talk about savings, such as freezing wages in the public sector next year and withdrawing from increasing the minimum wage. (...) According to our information, only the 13th pension in this and next year is certain. There is no longer such unanimity in the government regarding the 14th pension.”
https://wyborcza.pl/7,155287,25816440,politycy-pis-rozwazaja-program-oszczednosciowy-zamrozenie.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Michał Sutowski, Marek Czyż, Jacek Rybicki, Jerzy Materna, Aleksander Sopliński, Grzegorz Drobiszewski.
live
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