-- THE ANTI-PIS COALITION WOULD HAVE A SAFE MAJORITY TODAY - PIOTR PACEWICZ CALCULATES KANTAR POLL FOR TVN INTO SEATS: “The Sejm elected at the end of January would look different than it does now (this can be compared in the dynamic infographic below). PiS (193 seats) would not have a majority even in coalition with Konfederacja (22 seats). A difficult-to-imagine anti-PiS coalition (Civic Coalition, The Left, Polish People's Party + Kukiz/15) would have a safe majority of 244 seats.” -- 47% OF DECIDED VOTERS FOR DUDA IN THE 1ST ROUND MAY MEAN VICTORY - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “Andrzej Duda's result of 44% even heralds the possibility of victory in the first round, as it means 44% support among voters decided on whom to vote for (they constitute 93% of those who declare participation in the elections). As can be seen, Duda's ratings (44%) are 9 percentage points higher than PiS (35%), and there is a premium for holding office itself, i.e., building a strong association of 'President Duda'. Calculated differently, Duda gains 126% of PiS's support (26% more than his party). This may also be the result of an intensive election campaign that Duda has been conducting for months, disregarding statutory deadlines.” https://oko.press/bol-glowy-panstwa-oko-press-liczy-premie-prezydencka-komorowski-mial-91-proc-duda-tylko-26/ -- I WILL RUN FOR THE CHAIRPERSON OF POMORSKIE PO - AGNIESZKA POMASKA IN TRÓJMIEJSKA GW IN CONVERSATION WITH MACIEJ SANDECKI: “First, we elected a new leader of PO. Until May, we will all work hard on Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska's campaign, and I expect that only after the elections will we decide when the internal party elections will be held. However, I can declare today that I will run for the chairperson of the Pomeranian region.” -- NEW ENTHUSIASM IS VISIBLE, THIS CAN LEAD TO VICTORY IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - POMASKA CONTINUES: “Certainly, after the election of the new leader, there is a lot of enthusiasm. New people are joining the Civic Platform. The very fact that Grzegorz Schetyna did not run proves that he himself felt that people expect something new, fresh. Hence, the impressive result of Borys Budka – almost 80 percent of the vote, with four candidates – surely came from this. This victory, this enthusiasm gives hope for winning the presidential election.” -- CAMPAIGNS HAVE NOT BEEN WELL ORGANIZED SO FAR - POMASKA CONTINUES: “I agree that previous campaigns were not well organized. But this is not just a matter of hiring this or that agency. It is a matter of better management of the resources we have and better organization. That is why there was a change of leader in the Civic Platform. The fundamental expectation of Civic Platform activists towards Borys Budka is better internal organization of the party, better management. Hence, a key change will be, for example, the appointment of a party secretary, or a different organization of the PO's national office.” https://trojmiasto.wyborcza.pl/trojmiasto/7,35612,25647707,pomaska-wystartuje-na-przewodniczaca-pomorskiej-platformy-obywatelskiej.html -- THE RESENTMENT AGAINST ELITES FROM SOCIALISM HAS BEEN ADOPTED BY THE POLISH RIGHT - MICHAŁ SZULDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The aversion to elites, based on deep resentment, which became the foundation of socialism, has been adopted by the Polish right. PiS, of course, invented nothing new here. Attacks on the 'banana youth' who got carried away were a constant weapon of the PRL. Communists very gladly exploited anti-intellectual prejudices. And since some critics of PiS, hailing from the ranks of celebrities, still indulge in using class prejudices to scold the ruling party, for example, by writing about the 'right-wing boor,' this fits perfectly into the anti-elitist narrative of Law and Justice.” -- CONSERVATISM IS NOT NATIONAL IDOLATRY - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “If one listens to President Andrzej Duda's speech during the 75th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz-Birkenau, a heroic vision of the Polish nation was clearly presented. The President did not falter when speaking of those who behaved disgracefully during the war, nor of those who behaved indifferently. He presented a vision of a nation that fought against Nazi Germany continuously from the first days of the war until its end. The reality is, of course, much more complicated. However, the idolization of the nation, its deification, does not allow for any other approach. Every nuance is seen as 'shame pedagogy,' i.e., shaming through history, shaming through past guilt in the name of fighting all manifestations of nationalism. Conservatism, like Catholic social teaching, is neither national idolatry nor shame pedagogy. It is, above all, common sense.” -- A DIFFERENT RIGHT IS POSSIBLE, IT IS NECESSARY - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI'S CONCLUSION: “This enumeration is not about playing with presenting gargantuan portraits of the stereotypical right-winger. It is about a different, much more serious phenomenon. Time is causing the ruling right to become increasingly depleted of idealism, increasingly becoming an ideologically devoid party of power. But in need of social legitimation, it still has to wage ideological wars. These wars – called shitstorms on the internet – sometimes last a few hours, sometimes a few weeks. They must ignite emotions, they must prove the superiority of the right, generate dislike and contempt for political opponents. This only strengthens the phenomenon described above. Someone might say: but there is no other right in Poland that has a chance of real power. But what of it? A different right is possible. A different right is needed. A different right is necessary.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/301319987-Wszystkie-grzechy-PiS-Od-antyelitaryzmu-po-balwochwalstwo-narodowe.html -- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ARGUES THAT A MODERATE STYLE DOES NOT HELP THE RIGHT: “A clear front of change, calling things by their names, brought the right a convincing victory in the dual elections of 2015 (parliamentary and presidential) and in the May 2019 European Parliament elections. The October Sejm and Senate elections also seemed to go well, but the Senate was lost by the right, and the majority in the Sejm is minimal. This is still a great success, a strong democratic mandate, but a feeling of dissatisfaction was and is noticeable. Especially since the campaign had a distinctly different climate than previous ones – it was conducted more politely, more calmly, and much effort was devoted to winning over the urban middle class. I don't know (and I don't know anyone who does) even one representative of this class who was seduced by PiS's advances, but supporters of this course are not discouraged. I'm not surprised – it's hard to accept that some social groups are so selfish that they are not interested in any project of modernization, strengthening the state, or fighting theft. What do they gain from it if domestic help has become more expensive, and the Baltic Sea is more crowded because ordinary families have started traveling there more often due to the 500+ program?” -- THE POLISH RIGHT, RECONCILED WITH THE WORLD OF THE THIRD POLISH REPUBLIC, BECOMES USELESS TO ANYONE - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “I am not saying that these groups should not be courted, but I believe that red alert should be sounded when these efforts cease to be an addition to the main vector of the right's policy and become the primary message. The Polish right, reconciled with the world of the Third Polish Republic, accepting its hierarchies and taboos, ceasing to strive for change, becomes useless to anyone. It becomes a redundant imitation of what is already in excess and of good quality. This is a path to disaster.” -- TRUMP AND ORBAN DO NOT FINANCE OPPONENTS IN THE ABSURD HOPE FOR THEIR KINDNESS, THEY DO NOT ENGAGE IN CHITCHAT ON CNN/TVN - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “This is the essence of the matter. This is what Donald Trump and Viktor Orban focus on! They do not finance opponents in the absurd hope for their kindness, but build their own communication channels with voters. They are on the ground. They speak a comprehensible language, on their own terms. They have their own agenda of issues, they do not allow topics to be imposed on them. They do not get drawn into chitchat and bickering on CNN/TVN. Thanks to this, they win against the entire establishment.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/484871-uwaga-gazeta-michnika-podrzuca-prawicy-szkodliwe-recepty -- THERE IS SOMETHING TO THE VENICE COMMISSION'S REASONING THAT IN AN ESTABLISHED POLITICAL CULTURE, GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE EXECUTIVE POWER ON JUDGES IS NOT AS DANGEROUS AS IN OUR REGION - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN RZ: “The fact that adopting the German model will likely be indigestible for the opposition reveals the relativism of the entire dispute. Although one can argue that this model was created by consensus, while in Poland the ruling camp did not hide its revolutionary goal: to rebuild, including partly staffing, the current judiciary in a more favorable direction for the right. One can even wonder, although it sounds 'blasphemous,' whether the Venice Commission was not right in explaining in 2007 that in countries with an established political culture, greater influence of the executive power on judges is not as dangerous as in our region. Quotes from that opinion circulate on the internet and outrage the Polish right, because they imply an admission that we are worse off. But there is some truth to that reasoning.” -- KACZYŃSKI STARTED STUMBLING OVER HIS OWN SNOWBALL - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “In response to the protests regarding the Constitutional Tribunal, Jarosław Kaczyński introduced changes to the court system in 2017, subjecting judicial careers to the clear control of the parliamentary majority. In doing so, he set a snowball in motion, which initially rolled in front of him and seemed to bring him political benefits. Today, Kaczyński has started stumbling over this snowball. And along with him, the out-of-breath leadership of his camp. Various reasons can be pointed to here. For example, an aura of romantic distrust of institutions. Carried over from the times of partitions, and then from resistance to communism.” -- SOME JUDGES FELT LIKE STARS OF A FREEDOM REBELLION, JUDICIAL MORALIZING DOES NOT REACH SOCIETY, THEREFORE DUDA MAY EVEN BENEFIT FROM THE RISK OF A KIND OF 'RAID ON THE COURTS' - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “There is no point in defending the other side. The statements of leading celebrity lawyers are full of a sense of superiority over the majority of society. And the fight against the government uses norms that are at least questionable. In addition, the style of this defense is associated with Sarmatian advocates of golden freedom or romantic moralizers. Some judges felt like stars of a freedom rebellion. And they do not bear greater risk for this when they are supported by the international establishment. With such balanced arguments, the effect of this war is unpredictable. Judicial moralizing does not reach the majority of society. Therefore, Andrzej Duda may even benefit in the campaign from the risk of a kind of 'raid on the courts'.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/301319989-Piotr-Zaremba-Bitwa-o-sadownictwo-czyli-starcie-plemion.html -- CIVIC PLATFORM AT A TURNING POINT - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ IN O NET: “The problem is that in reality, the Civic Platform has reached a turning point. Party members gave a red card to the outgoing leader, Grzegorz Schetyna. While four years ago, 90% of Civic Platform members voted for Schetyna, this time – sensing the mood – he didn't even run. He was right: 90% of PO members voted for candidates other than his favorite, Tomasz Siemoniak. This is a clear expression of frustration.” -- DOES THE DEPARTURE OF OPPORTUNISTS SHOW A LACK OF FAITH IN PO? - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “Perhaps the decline in membership mainly shows that the Civic Platform has ceased to be an attractive employment agency. But the departure of opportunists is also one of the proofs that there is no great faith in PO in the political world. Well, what does the Civic Platform have to offer today? The presidential campaign shows not much. Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska has not unleashed her inner political beast. So far, her gaffes are mostly heard. Of course, Kidawa can still be formatted, trained, and supported. But the risk of defeat is still high. And it will not just be Kidawa's defeat. It will be a problem for the party and its new leader – another election loss in the series. One thing can be said with certainty: if Budka fails to revive the Civic Platform, no one after him will get such a chance. If the streak of defeats continues, the Civic Platform may face a division, and even a collapse.” https://www.google.pl/amp/s/wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/andrzej-stankiewicz-zegnaj-brytanio-newsletter/hw8ekfb.amp -- BUDKA ABSTAINED FROM VOTING ON KAMIŃSKI'S IMMUNITY - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ: “This is a rather peculiar episode from the life of the new leader of PO. Borys Budka helped save the skin of Mariusz Kamiński, the current head of the Ministry of Interior and Administration. A few years ago, Budka abstained during the vote on lifting Kamiński's immunity when the prosecution wanted to charge him for the operation against Jolanta and Aleksander Kwaśniewski. This is the operation that Agent Tomek so readily talks about today.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/budka-pomogl-kaminskiemu-uniknac-prokuratora/1z8xn7m -- WILL BUDKA DEINSTALL THE CELEBRITY VIRUS FROM THE PLATFORM - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “Especially since PO voters are also a multi-faceted group: they can be found in churches, at black marches, at the philharmonic, on pilgrimages, and at disco-polo concerts. In varying proportions, but still: distancing oneself from some of them, with barely concealed contempt, leads nowhere. However, it is difficult to break with one's own DNA, to unlearn instinctive reactions and reflexes. There is a long way ahead for Budka's party to uninstall this virus. Especially since there is no certainty that this virus has not already taken over the entire system of this party.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/484871-czy-budce-wystarczy-odwagi-by-zmienic-dna-platformy -- ANNA DĄBROWSKA ON THE REMUNERATION OF PLN 3 MILLION FOR ONLINE POLICY MAKERS FROM THE CIVIC PLATFORM: The agency Apostołowie Opinii (Apostles of Opinion), operating in the area of online reputation management, was paid PLN 123,000 by KO. The Civic Platform has been cooperating with this company for several years. “Our offer includes: image audits and consulting, ongoing e-image monitoring, recommendations for protective actions, and actions related to responding to reputation-threatening phenomena,” reads its website. This time, KO issued invoices for “analyses based on internet and social media research” and “consulting on conducting election campaigns on the internet and social media.” KO paid another consulting firm from Częstochowa, associated with Apostołowie, PLN 2,795,000 for “social media promotion.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1940072,1,ile-na-kampanie-wydala-koalicja-mniej-niz-pis.read -- BREXIT IS THE SAME COURSE THAT LED TO THE WORLD WARS - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “But the British are leaving after all. The power of self-proclaimed masters of the continent does not reach everywhere. Perhaps, when they sober up, when the initial anger passes, they will reconsider and understand that they are pursuing the worst possible course? Because in essence, it is the same course that led to both world wars. Yes, in a different guise, but in spirit, exactly the same.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/484955-a-jednak-wychodza-fakt-ze-oparli-sie-presji-imponuje -- BREXIT IS FATAL FOR POLAND - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Although Konfederacja and part of PiS are focused on Brexit, it is fatal news for Poland. A Europe of two speeds will most likely leave us on the margins – especially with this government. In Great Britain, we are losing an ally who understood the geopolitical threats posed by Russia to our region. The United Kingdom is an important trading partner for Poland, and if a sensible trade agreement cannot be reached, it will hit our companies. Poles living in the UK have the right to stay there, but if post-Brexit Britain falls into crisis, they may not want to – large-scale re-emigration is on the one hand an opportunity for the economy, on the other hand a source of problems (especially considering the housing market). The United Kingdom may have formally cut itself off from Europe, but the price for the consequences of this decision – whatever they may be – will be paid not only by the small island but also by the entire continent. No one's hut is safe on the edge today.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/swiat/brexit-do-dopiero-poczatek-jakub-majmurek/ -- PERHAPS SOMETHING GOOD WILL COME OUT OF THE CHAOS WE ARE OBSERVING - WOJCIECH ORLIŃSKI in GW: “I see two morals here: an optimistic one and a motivational one. The optimistic one is that the tradition of the rule of law can be born from an illegitimate womb. Who knows, perhaps something good will come out of the chaos we are currently observing here? For this to happen, we must move on to the motivational moral. Citizen! Regardless of whether you are for Jefferson, Kaczyński, Budka, or Nixon, remember that the regulations stand above them. Choose loyalty to the regulations, not to your leader, if you want Poland to resemble the United States of America more than the United States of Mexico.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25654282,pamietaj-ze-ponad-kaczynskim-nixonem-czy-budka-stoja-sady.html -- PIS'S OBSESSION - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA writes in GW: “Today, PiS's obsession distorts space-time. By further increasing the influence of politicians on the appointment of judges, the ruling right-wing camp is heading towards the PRL, when judges were dependent on political will. A good, although sometimes exaggerated, diagnosis is the engine of radicals' actions, and this radicalism causes the realization of their legitimate goals to turn into pathology. Zbigniew Ziobro angrily shouts about an impunity caste of judges, but in reality, he is creating his own caste, indeed, an impunity one. This is how violent revolutions usually end.” -- WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE JUDICIAL ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING PIS: “Incidentally, it is a paradox that the judges who are supposed to streamline the judiciary have themselves been accused of lengthy proceedings and delays in performing their duties. And these judges, who fight for stricter disciplinary proceedings, have somehow evaded them, at least partly. They could be an example of excessive leniency of disciplinary courts. Such a group of lawyers, plus young political aspirants with very radical right-wing views, have reduced the debate to a fencing match with increasingly detailed legal arguments. They obfuscate the discussion with legal loopholes to such an extent that an ordinary person gives up after five minutes. And that's the point. There are no facts, no truth, and no actual state of affairs: there are only opinions, and these can be different. With such a framing, substantive dialogue and potential compromise are impossible.” -- WILL THERE BE A CHANGE OF COURSE? - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “A feedback loop emerges – the conviction that one must stand their ground, must not show weakness, must impose the system on the resistant part of society. This is part of the right-wing radical worldview. Because the PiS environment does not tolerate weakness and deeply believes that not conversation or persuasion, but hard, ruthless force brings results. And social unrest and sharp conflict helped Jarosław Kaczyński win elections. At the same time, the leader pragmatically assumes – and finds confirmation in polls – that PiS voters like this. It is true that doubts have recently appeared in the PiS camp. Perhaps total war does not mobilize the electorate so much, perhaps it will bring losses to Andrzej Duda? But for now, Jarosław Kaczyński has not ordered a change of course.” https://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,25654046,kaczynskiemu-nie-miesci-sie-w-glowie-ze-sedzia-moze-byc.html -- THIS IS HOW CRUSADES END - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ ON THE CHURCH'S OFFERING: “Because the political division, which is fundamental here, also has a largely class character: residents of villages, the lowest earners, with primary education, trust the Church the most. What happened to Catholic intellectuals? What offer do the bishops have today for young Poles migrating to large cities? Or are they perhaps already mentally prepared for turbo-secularization and are happy that they can still count on influence in rural Poland? The Church that loses influence over the elites will lose any agency. It will cease to influence not only politics but social life in Poland altogether.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/301319998-Tak-sie-koncza-krucjaty.html -- CLOSING MINES AFTER THE ELECTIONS - CLAIMS RAFAŁ ZASUŃ: “After the May presidential elections, the coal industry will face restructuring again and the inevitable closure of more mines. It is only unknown whether everyone in the government is aware of this.” -- ZASUŃ PROVIDES INSIGHT INTO THE BACKGROUND OF KOLORZ'S PRESSURE FOR TCHÓRZEWSKI'S DEPARTURE: “It is difficult to say how the trade unionists will behave in the event of a crisis. The rivalry between individual centers and individual leaders will play a huge role. Energy Minister Krzysztof Tchórzewski argued to the party authorities that he should remain in government because he is the best person to negotiate with miners. But Dominik Kolorz, head of Silesian-Dąbrowa 'Solidarity,' who fell out with Tchórzewski, promised Nowogrodzka that he would maintain peace in Silesia without Tchórzewski in the government – a well-informed person close to the government told us. If this is true, it shows the power of mining leaders. However, it is not a foregone conclusion that Kolorz's influence will be strong enough to curb the trade union 'grassroots.' It is also unknown whether this promise of 'peace' also applies to the closure of mines.” https://oko.press/tak-oboz-wladzy-chce-uspokoic-gornictwo-do-majowych-wyborow-tworzy-centralny-magazyn-niechcianego-wegla/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Joanna Senyszyn, Bogdan Rzońca, Tomasz Dudziński, SUNDAY: Piotr Naimski, Małgorzata Wypych, Roman Imielski, Zuzanna Dąbrowska.